patrick.net

It's tough when April Fool's Day falls on a Sunday. Last year I convinced several members of my family that they were getting audited by the IRS.

Yah, Mondays and Fridays are the best days of the week for April 1st.

I'm giving up chocolate chip cookies and Hi-C fruit punch because Food Stamps will no longer pay for junk food.

Ha, ha! April Fools!

You bought it hook, line and Bob Brinker!

Of course I can still use my Food Stamps for chocolate chip cookies and Hi-C fruit punch. As long as they're government-certified Chips Ahoy brand, and the punch is Tropical Passion Fruit flavored the fed doesn't care!

Admit it, you got suckered!

I give up.

Math no longer matters. Reality is what you want it to be.

The lunatics have taken over the asylum.

Therefore, I've located TheOtherSide, by her blog log records and engaged her to act as my realtor. Full commission. No hooks. No lowballing. Competitive bidding is fine. I'm even covering her bridge toll and gas expenses for her Marina-to-Marin driving. She was reluctant to take me on as a client, given my checkered past as a former bubblehead. But when I agreed to let her handle all the financing through her mortgage broker friend, she finally agreed to have me as her client.

In case everyone thinks I've gone soft and abandoned our mission, I did demand that she provide me with annual fridge magnets and a box of merlot upon closing.

Brand Says:

> It’s tough when April Fool’s Day falls on a
> Sunday. Last year I convinced several members
> of my family that they were getting audited by
> the IRS.

You can call and tell them that while walking to church today you met a couple nice kids on bikes and they talked you in to converting to LDS...

Actually, I was going to tell my parents that I cut my hair. Mom has been begging me for years.

It's funny you ask...I just got covenant married to a Bush administration staffer.

Just posted on msnbc:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17878684/

Housing Market Enters Season of Reckoning

“Things seem to be snowballing very quickly,” said Cochrane, a senior economist with Moody’s Economy.com. “It’s going to be a weak spring.”

“This isn’t going to be over in a year,” predicted Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller, who helped create the housing index. “Housing prices could be declining for years and years.”

Of course, you have the consummate Dataquick pumper saying “We don’t think the market is in that bad of shape,” said John Karevoll, an industry analyst for DataQuick Information Systems. “It’s just not in as good shape as it was two years ago.”

You have to take what Karevoll says with a grain of salt as Dataquick gets much of their revenue from selling housing, ppty and land statistical reports - I know the company I work for pays them for various reports every month.

theotherside

You should've stayed in investment banking. You still haven't told us why you left in the first place. I know it couldn't have been to get your real estate sales license.

Truth is, I don't have any of my JBR bunkered home equity anywhere near any hedge funds. Sorry. My "downpayment" as you call it, is really on at risk to sustained stiff inflation or the destruction of the United States. Similarly, my retirement SEP account is heavily diversified and sits at about 60% of market risk right now.

I am flattered that you think I have the minimum required investment to play in any worth while hedge funds though. Perhaps direct your chicanery at FAB. He's in that tier. I could play in lesser funds, but being that I personally know a couple of those managers, there ain' no way in hell I'm putting even a single L$ (1/267 of a $USD) with those guys.

I've always been curious how much different hedge funds are exposed to risk. Given the occasional huge implosion, that factor must be pretty high at times. Past a certain level of capital risk for a certain return, it's really like gambling. Maybe it's a better idea to simply take 1% of your net worth and bet it on Red or Black. You've got an 18/38 chance of a 100% instantaneous return.

"This isn’t goThis isn’t going to be over in a year,” predicted Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller, who helped create the housing index. “Housing prices could be declining for years and years.””

Unless we have a shock to the system in the Bay Area economy. The seeds of that are very much in place. With so very few new start-up going public and gathering all the money to expand and grow (hire new employees). I dont see any growth in the local economy or any major revolutions in tech leading the way as did Internet, Networking, or Software as we had in the 90s.. Given all the global competition we endure, a downturn in say software, chips, or hardware will have fast ripple effects in the economy. We may see very quickly residence not finding living in BA very desirable. Already the high productivity we had in prior years has evaporated. Going to work just isnt as fun for many.

All this can happen very easily and quickly impact housing prices. That is exactly what happened in early 1990's.

Brand - do you have any data on the returns from hedge funds?

"We suspect the problem in the subprime area is just the tip of the iceberg for the mortgage market as a whole," Shulman wrote. "For all practical purposes, the subprime market is in the process of shutting down."

You could have possibly see that coming?

I dunno Space Ace, Business Week says that the Tech IPO is back:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_02/b4016044.htm?chan=search

Admittedly, the examples they give are all from somewhere else, but some of those 70-80 they are talking about have to be in the Bay Area.

“We don’t think the market is in that bad of shape,” said John Karevoll, an industry analyst for DataQuick Information Systems. “It’s just not in as good shape as it was two years ago.”

I would typically at this point make a joke regarding John's Mother, a can of corn, and vigorous anal sex, but what would be the point of that.

"It's just not in as good shape as it was two years ago. J. Karevoll

"these aren't the droids you're looking for" O. Kenobi

DinOR,

Spot on?

If you are querying the meaning, it means "I think that's 100% correct". The phrase is common Australian vernacular, but I don't know how widespread the use is elsewhere.

Derivation is a paraphrase of "you hit the spot", where in turn 'the spot' was target shooting/archery/darts slang for the bullseye.

Uh speaking of "clueless" my wife and I were having breakfast on Sunday morning and a realtor gal we've known for years stopped to say hi while we were waiting to be served. Of course right away she starts talking RE and how she and her new husband have been making a "killing" in pre-foreclosures.

I looked up, doubtful that the (8) transactions they did last year could've yielded much if anything. With so many people borrowing their way right out of house and home unless these places were immaculate and bought for 50 cents on the dollar I just don't see any way this could be that profitable? If you could find ONE home in the Portland market a year where the stars lined up, I'd say THAT just might be true. Eight? C'mon!

When I looked up from the paper I'm sure my facial expression must have been one of annoyance b/c she seemed to back peddle quickly. I mean c'mon lady, out of one side of your mouth your telling the FEW prospects you might be working RE is ALWAYS a good investment but (according to you) more of your income is from working the NOD's?

"If it wasn't me, it would be someone else" is exactly the same logic dope dealers and gun runners always fall back on. Other than that, breakfast was just fine.

"the subprime market is in the process of shutting down"

While the REIC is fumbling around in a state of shock try this one on for size! For every bum loan written that the "firm" is required to buy back the MB that wrote that POS "wooden ticket" should be charged back!

This is simply ridiculous. There's NFW these people should be keeping their commissions on "busted trades" like this! Yeah, that includes the realtwhore's commission too! If they can't come up with the money within 30 days, you're drummed out of the business and barred for life. Why are we tolerating this outright larceny? Want to fund a bail-out? Start here.

Believe it or not, this is common practice in virtually every other tangent of financial services. Ask a friend in insurance what a "charge back" is and watch their eyes roll into the back of their head.

In securities the "production month" usually ends 3 days prior to the end of the calendar month. (That way all trades are "settled" prior to paying out ANY commissions). Then again the REIC operates on the "waver warranty". Meaning when you can no longer see me waving as you drive off THAT'S the end of the "warranty".

DinOR

The difference is in the fiduciary responsibility. RE agents and brokers have none.

Jimbo - They said the same thing over and over several years now... "There back".... But its been lack luster.

Sorry but double digit growth of the type we saw in mid-90's aint there.
Aside from that ... nothing out there that is earch shattering...
Most of these new companies are hardware companies with declining ASP (Avg Selling Price) and geared to consumers not corporate buyers (thats where the payoff is)... Think IBM, Cisco, and other ???

Actually 80 today compared to 450 in 1999 nationally. Most of the 80 are NOT in Silicon Valley. There is no need to be located in SV anymore, tech is far too spread out.

You will find far more M&A today than IPO in the cards. Its just too costly!

Randy H,

True, true but isn't it frustrating the way these people will have doctored loan doc's, made gross misrepresentations and still somehow not only evade ANY form of prosecution but likely get back into the loan racket when it's "hot" again?

Here we have people that have displayed wanton disregard for all things regulatory and yet we have no mechanism in place to make sure they don't re-enter the very same racket at a time and place of their choosing?

Since there doesn't seem to be ANY record of whatsoever pertaining to the MB's "wallpaper" they were writing they're free to pursue employment in just about any area of financial sales. The truth is, they shouldn't be within a country mile of handling money period. Who here would want someone that wrote loans to illegals while fluffing up their sources of income selling their mom an annuity? Estate planning? A toaster?

New Century filing for bankruptcy. Details soon.

Person,

Here's a link:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/02/news/companies/new_century_bankruptcy/index.htm?postversion=2007040211

3200 jobs for the Irvine, CA based outfit. That can't be good for the Orange Cty economy.

This thread is so slow... perhaps we need a new thread.

I suspect that in a year no one will care about sub-people because the focus will be on prime mortgages.

s/sub-people/sub-prime people

(NO PUN INTENDED) :)

skibum,

What's more is those are 3,200 jobs that ain't a comin' back. Everybody that worked there will always look back and judge every future job they might have as definitely inferior to NEWC. In fact most will lament for the rest of their lives that they never had it so easy.

Ahhh, for back in the day! :(

In my more drilled-down searches, inventory is about 10% above the same time last year.

Which means "not yet".

We will see 200%-1000% YOY inventory increases when IT comes.

There's news hitting today about Alt-A troubles percolating. Some lenders getting hit in share prices.

Anyone know how the 2br condo market in Mtn. View is holding up? My friend is looking to sell, NEEDS to sell - wants last summer's prices.

There’s news hitting today about Alt-A troubles percolating. Some lenders getting hit in share prices.

Oooh. Reflexivity is reversing.

Anyone know how the 2br condo market in Mtn. View is holding up?

It seems newer townhouses near downtown is holding up. How old is the place? Is it worthy enough for google employees?

It's an older townhouse style condo. I'm not sure if it's google-worthy :)

It’s an older townhouse style condo. I’m not sure if it’s google-worthy

Perhaps the listing agent can offer better advice. :)

Which means “not yet”.

We will see 200%-1000% YOY inventory increases when IT comes.

Contra Costa may be holding (for now), but it appears to be the exception: http://bubbletrackinggraphs.blogspot.com/
I suppose the East Bay really is special... :-(

I just opened one of our internal broker/dealer research e-mails and they describe RE as "The House of Pain" :)

Keep up the good work fellas!

New thread: STRIVE Act

lunarpark,

Convince them to get the f'ing thing on the market NOW. When the Alt-A funding starts drying up, the poo will really hit the fan.

I have a co-worker who has a house closing this month. She took a lower offer with a higher downpayment because she figured the higher offer with little downpayment would get yanked.

I told her she should move quickly. She is one of these people who lags - started "thinking" about selling last year. But now she REALLY needs the money. She's going negative every month - putting the extra expenses on credit cards, etc. She's taken out so much money from the condo too - so she needs to enough to cover.

It sounds like she is screwed. She should get it on the market ASAP, and she should be considering taking less that what she 'needs' in order to avoid chasing the market down. Get the latest comps, and price it 50k under to try and get some bidding on it and get it under contract ASAP.