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It’s all about facing the facts. If the market was so weak, which it is clearly not for anybody actually bidding on, and looking for a house to buy, how could this house go pending in under 2 weeks at $3.5 million asking? I was going to see this last Sunday, and it was already in contract!
Yeah baby, MarinaPrime/FaceReality/ConfusedRenter is BACK! Troll on, dude!
Jon Says:
April 4th, 2007 at 7:09 pm
Here’s a philosophical question.
Let’s say one concludes that the housing market or a stock is disconnected from funadmentals and that prices are mostly speculative. Let’s say you expected the speculative mania to continue so you purchased the home or stock with the intention of selling it to a greater fool down the road at a profit. You know at some point someone will get left holding the bag.
Outside of risk factors, would you have any problems with that, moral or otherwise?
Why would you feel guilty that someone's selfishness harms them? First, everybody puts a different value on things so to try to determine if they are overpaying is irrelevant. Secondly, even if you think so this is a competitive free market, you won't get anywhere if you can't stomache making a profit.
Let’s get the government out of the “marriage†and “civil union†business.
There are many legal consequences (e.g. gift tax, estate, etc) of a marriage. If the government is to uphold the legal system it must uphold the integrity of marriage.
I can tell you not getting married is the way to go. Everyone I know who is married wishes they weren't.
"1- The 30 year fixed mortgage rate in 1977 was not 18%"
My parents home was at around 7-8% fixed 30 year.
What matters is what kind of friends you make at schools before college.
Absolutely. This is why I think golf is a very good investment.
Everyone I know who is married wishes they weren’t.
I am happily married. You should un-know me now. :)
pending in under 2 weeks at $3.5 million asking?
Someone I knew well bought for 3.4 in Saratoga in 2000 but then had to sell in 2001... took a 800K loss.
Would you feel guilty getting a bargain on something?
Guilt is a useless emotion. It will drag you down. It is best not to feel it at all.
Let’s say you expected the speculative mania to continue so you purchased the home or stock with the intention of selling it to a greater fool down the road at a profit. You know at some point someone will get left holding the bag.
Outside of risk factors, would you have any problems with that, moral or otherwise?
No problem whatsoever. The bag holder should have known better. It is morally justifiable that his money be put into better uses.
Seriously, even with my girlfriend sharing a bank account and the house, it seems so simple to be able to undo everything if we wanted to.
, which gets their money from hedge funds (or private equity)---
no its millionairs who invest into VCs ... many are in tech themself.. CEO/CFOs
no hedge funds invest into startups... no return .. its all a lost for several years.
lol, let’s talk in 5 years.
I am happily married for 5+ years already.
God I hate golf.
I hate golf too. It is a silly game but I met most of my friends directly or indirectly through golf.
Seriously, even with my girlfriend sharing a bank account and the house, it seems so simple to be able to undo everything if we wanted to.
Be careful, that can be considered a common-law marriage in some states.
I am not a lawyer.
I always make friends where I work, and when people talk about golf I know right then we won't be hanging out. That was one thing about grad school, that's all these guys could talk about. That and getting drunk.
Now I know you’re lying.
How?
This statement is false.
Now you know I must have lied.
I always make friends where I work, and when people talk about golf I know right then we won’t be hanging out.
I never really made friends at work. I like to be as detached as possible.
I thought about our conversation earlier when the waitress said they were out of chocolate cream pie, but they did have a slice of French Silk.
Peter P Says:
> And getting into a top college means nothing either.
Some of the smartest (and most successful) guys I know are Kauffman Fellows:
http://www.kauffmanfellows.org/
It must be some kind of fluke that since “getting in to a top college means nothing†that so many Kauffman Fellows went to top schools…
If I am at a party at the home of anyone that works in VC or PE there is a 50% chance that anyone I talk to will have a degree from Harvard, Stanford, or Wharton…
Some of the smartest (and most successful) guys I know have opposable thumbs... ;)
Just another way to look down at someone else. I used to hate some engineers at an old job because all they could do is complain out of jealousy that the HR manager (who made more than them) had received a BBA degree from National University.
That's the thing with engineers, they just don't get it. It wasn't the school (for those out of CA National is a bit of a joke) they should be knocking, it's the fact that she F'd the right guy who took her along with him throughout his career.
Just another way to look down at someone else. I used to hate some engineers at an old job because all they could do is complain out of jealousy that the HR manager (who made more than them) had received a BBA degree from National University.
Very true.
Another way to look at it: the manager made more than they did with just a BBA degree. I think they need to wake up. One cannot find truth in a degree. One must go make some truth.
The reason I posed this question is, would you therefore have no moral qualms about investing in a ponzi scheme? A ponzi is purely speculative, based on greater fool thinking.
Nothing wrong if it is legal.
That's what I said. :)
But really, engineers are like that. They are so worried about what someone else has going on that their morale goes to crap and they end up getting canned. Engineers remind me of migrant workers in the fact that they continuously make themselves disposable. They are absolutely appalling when it comes to money, I know some that are hating the housing market. You know, the trend pointed up so that is where prices are heading.
Engineers also try to be logical and rational. However, they are frequently emotionally immature. As a result, they keep wondering why they are not making the right decisions.
First ripping someone off (lying or not delivering value) is wrong in my book. Anytime you are defrauding someone it is unethical/immoral To be clear a ponzi is merely a hopeless mess requiring increasing infusion to keep it afloat. Legitimate models can find themselves in this situation.
I think you mean pyramid schemes, and they are not becoming anymore popular than they have always been. No I would not participate in one, and I don't see a similarity between a pyramid scheme and putting an asset out on the open market for sale.
BTW, I am an engineer.
Is it ethical to profit from the demise of others?
I would say yes. Doing so will release resources from the less-competent, which is a good thing.
What to short next?
First ripping someone off (lying or not delivering value) is wrong in my book. Anytime you are defrauding someone it is unethical/immoral To be clear a ponzi is merely a hopeless mess requiring increasing infusion to keep it afloat. Legitimate models can find themselves in this situation.
Fraud is wrong and illegal. But profiting from the delusional is perfectly fine.
Peter, it was like watching an infant. They haven't got a clue how the world works. They try to approach everything with logic and then get frustrated because they can't cope with the fact that their logic is a little different than how the masses think. They are always Johnny come latelys and have no concept of first mover advantages, or establishing a competitive advantage. Duh, the trend is this, or they sold it for....I should be able to....
When I filled out one of my disclosure forms for a home sale, I joked with my agent (he's an engineer...I have a funny story about that too) that I should probably disclose that the buyer is committing financial suicide.
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http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,915445,00.html
Sound familiar? Yet another story from 2005? Nope... the publication date of this article was September 12, 1977 - nearly 30 years ago.
Let's look at some other snippets from this time capsule:
Does anyone know what happened to the housing market in California after 1977? Or was the impact of Prop 13 too influential in the resulting statistics?
And finally, the social impact:
So... this was in 9/1977. Now, it's hard enough predicting what 9/2007 will be like - but what do you think September 12, 2037 will be like?
Already, both parents are working, realtors are spinning the Bay Area as a place so great that you don't need to take vacations - what's next? Will child labor make a come back? ("Monta Vista High School and Fireworks Factory #88"?) How much more special can it get here?
(Bonus points for including Peak Oil in your prediction...)
#housing