patrick.net

Globalization is a great thing for the human race - for billions, the living standard will be raised. Unfortunately, it’s an almost zero sum gain - and those with the highest living standards will see a fall. China and India will fall into the former, the US and Western Europe will fall into the latter.

I actually don't agree with that. I assume you are familiar with the economic arguments in favor of free trade. If not, here the wikipedia entry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade_debate#Economic_arguments_for_free_trade

If this is all too jargony, build your own model, using 100 bushels of rice/person/year and 10 cows/person/year for country A and 10 bushels of rice/person/year and 100 cows/person/year for country B. What is counterintuitive (to me at least) is that free trade still works when country A is more productive than country B in every category, as long as country B doesn't have the exact same productivity ratio.

Now, this is a gross oversimplification of what happens in the real world, of course. There are thousands of goods and millions of producers and it is impossible to model, much less predict. But I think these models get to the heart of why globalization and free trade should improve standards of living across the board.

There are going to be winners and losers of course, and the biggest winners will be the emerging middle class in India and China, but the US doesn't automatically have to be a loser. Already, China is starting to pull up the economy of Japan by demanding things like high quality machine tools that Japan can produce more cheaply than China. Increasingly, we will be selling value added goods, things like music and software and chip designs, to China, or at least that is the hope. I guess those aren't really "goods" and are subject to piracy, which is part of the problem. But just as Henry Ford's paying his workers enough money to have a decent helped kick off an economic boom that raised just about everyone's standard of living, brining the billions in Asia into the world economy will have all kinds of benefits to the rest of us.

I agree that the biggest losers will be probably be those whose quality of life depends on massive energy consumption.

If successful globalization is possible (I'm far from convinced that it will be), then it will only be a matter of time before China and India take over at the executive level...especially since just about everyone on this board agree the Gen-Yers are ultra lame.

Sorry, didn't have time to proofread my last post since I am juggling a one year old on my lap, but hopefully that was all intelligible. Rereading it, I realized that I skipped quite a few words, sorry about that.

Jon (who is incredibly insightful for 31) Says:

> My answer to your question about what all
> that crap gets us: Nothing.

I agree with Jon, but it wasn’t until I was in my late 30’s that I realized I didn’t need “all that crap”, or need a house or really “need” anything except food and shelter. It is not just the Realtors, but just about everyone asks me “Why don’t you buy a house” (and “Why don’t you get married”)…

> I grew up middle/lower-middle class. Both my
> folks were teachers.

I grew up as the poorest kid in a rich neighborhood (We lived in a nice big house since it was the only one they could find with a wheelchair accessible ground floor bedroom for my Grandfather who came to live with us)…

> My childhood friends and I spent three summers
> in a row playing ball tag with the same beat-up
> nerf football at the local elementary school.

My friends growing up got autographed balls at 49er and Giant’s games and I got balls old tenants left behind after they moved or balls other kids lost when they ended up on the apartment roofs…

> We cobbled together $20 between the ten of us,
> some of us recycling cans and bottles, for the brick
> of firecrackers around the fourth. Great times!
> And who would make the AC bus transit trip into
> SF Chinatown to make our buy!

We were just talking about our trips to Chinatown to buy firecrackers at the Chinese NY parade last month (that has been having less and less firecrackers every year). As Junior High kids we would take the train in to the city then take Muni to Chinatown to buy firecrackers and bottle rockets from the Chinese gang members that lived in the housing projects. The gang members always made us give them the cash first but always came back with the merchandise…

> We rinsed out mom’s cleaning bottles for squirt
> guns and they worked better than the store-bought
> crap, anyway. Water fights were entertainment for
> the entire summer.

When the city of San Mateo made apartment owners replace all the old fire extinguishers with modern extinguishers we ended up with a utility room full of old metal three foot tall extinguishers with a Schrader valve on the top. When you filled them with water you could spray 20 feet if you pumped them up with a floor pump or 30 feet if you used an air compressor…

> My parents bought us $50 bikes one Christmas and we
> explored everything from San Leandro to Berkeley.

My first bike was a Huffy that my parents got for $5 at a garage sale. As a kid I didn’t really notice it was used when I saw it under the tree from Santa. By the time I was in first grade I knew the Huffy was a piece of junk and Santa brought a 10 year old Schwinn (that my parents later told me cost $20 at a garage sale) the Christmas I was in second grade (I later converted this bike in to a BMX bike)…

> My point is, I had a helluva time as a kid. So much fun.
> No amount of money could buy it. And all these kids,
> amazingly just one generation behind me, who are
> being brought up to believe that fun is how much you
> spend, it’s so sad.
>I’m only 31, but apparently I’m suddenly “old school”.

I’m wondering if Jon always felt this way?

It occurred to me that things started to change in my life when I finally started to make a fair amount of money (but before that I was a pathetic status obsessed consumer).

I can’t really figure out how it works but when I was poor I wanted a lot of things that I just don’t want any more when I have the cash to buy them.

The Wall Street Journal this morning had a big article on watches. When I was a kid I looked up to people that had cool watches (as a caddy I wanted a Rolex Daytona) today if I see anyone with a $300K + IWC watch I think that he is an idiot (or must be trying to overcompensate for something)…

just about everyone on this board agree the Gen-Yers are ultra lame.

Nah, The Kids Are Alright.

...it will only be a matter of time before China and India take over at the executive level…

Sure, I guess eventually standards of living should equilibrate globally, at least as long as we can keep from killing ourselves in another ruinous global war. But I don't expect to see it in my lifetime, unless they invent some magic pill that extends lifespans to 1000 years or something.

BigBrother Says:

> Just a quick question, with so much Doom & Gloom
> on this board, do ANY of you actually LIVE in SAN
> FRANCISCO? Or, is everybody living in the suburbs?

I live in San Francisco (so does SF Woman who may be on a Spring Break trip since she has not been posting recently)…

Considering that SF is approx. 600K people in a 8-9M metropolitan, it is overrepresented on this board. More than 50% of the active posters aren't even living in the Bay Area.

Does anyone here live in Oakland or Gilroy?

hoa help needed Says:

> Anybody out there know what to do about a HOA who
> is unwilling to look at noise problems?

Just take care of it yourself.

> I have this annoying fan noise that I have been complaining
> about for the past 3 months and I’ve had no cooperation
> at all!

Take the cover of the fan and pull the plug.

Brand,

I assumed eburbed was being facetious. Also, I dispute the characterization of German food as "tasty" though I like Germans overall.

Jon,

While generally not materialistic or attached to stuff (though I hate low quality crap), I would like to see more of the world before the political situation or the fuel prices make traveling more cost prohibitive.

BigBrother Says:

> Hi FormerApt - Do you really think San Francisco prices
> are declining, and a recession is coming?

I don’t “think” SF prices are declining, they really are declining. While I think the economy will continue to slow in 2007 (due primarily to the dramatic drop in HELOC cash and the dramatic decrease in REIC jobs and income) I’m not predicting a recession (but would not be surprised if we move in to a period that some economists refer to as a recession)…

> B/c from what i’ve seen, property prices are selling FAST
> i.e. 2 weeks and Pending, and there are multiple bidders
> out there on each property.

Do you have MLS access to track the entire market, or are you just talking to a Realtor?

I don’t want to get anyone in trouble so let’s just say I know a guy who works for a SF real estate firm (with two names, the first is the name of an ocean and the second a term used by workers who organize) and they have been told to lie and say that the market is HOT HOT HOT with multiple bidders and if you don’t buy now you will be priced out forever (with that said I’m sure that there are some actual fast sales with multiple bidders)…

Also, I dispute the characterization of German food as “tasty” though I like Germans overall.

I like wieners.

It must be painful to commute now that gas prices are above $3.30, and with the economy booming, traffic must also be painfu crossing the bridges.

I prefer recessions.

BigBrother,

I do disagree with your primary contention that you somehow need to live in SF to know what's happening in SF. Lots of posters (even non-BA posters) are familiar with SF's real estate market.

I also don't think building is necessarily much easier in the more desirable suburbs. There's been lots of previous posts about the difficulty of building in Los Altos or Palo Alto.

especially since just about everyone on this board agree the Gen-Yers are ultra lame.

Thread idea: Why Generation Y is lame?

Peter P,

Who's your employer? You and your wife must have recession proof jobs.

The government really has no business in restricting construction anywhere.

How do propose to solve the commons problem?

You and your wife must have recession proof jobs.

No. There is no such thing as a recession-proof job. However, I believe in creative destruction, even on a very personal level.

How do propose to solve the commons problem?

I have an idea. Let capitalism sort things out on Second Life. Then we duplicate the cartoon utopia in the real world. :)

Peter P,

Be careful, we're both borderline Gen-Yers.

But then, we do seem to welcome self mockery.

We're lame... :(

Be careful, we’re both borderline Gen-Yers.

I never said I am not lame.

However, I know for a fact you are a cool person.

(Graphic)

Hey lady! I know you're tickled pink that you're now "debt free" but would mind grabbing the f@cking steering wheel!?!

My first bike was a garage sale Schwinn. It wasn't much fun to ride being that it weighed more than my father's Pinto. But I did pedal it on my paper route for 2 years until I got enough money to buy a newer used Huffy, which was very upscale, but it was a faux BMX.

That bike was stolen from school 2 weeks after I bought it, and I later saw one of those 14 year old 5th graders from the orphanage riding it. I decided to let him keep it.

www.credit solutions.com

After these f@ckers work you over you'll have WISHED you hit a telephone pole!

Although I personally think that Generation Y is all about the Scorpio Pluto.

thomhall, my point was that the Fed is the wrong target. If you're pissed about the rich getting richer, it's misguided to blame the Fed. I was suggesting that it might be more appropriate to blame capitalism. Or maybe the tax code. Or GW's tax cuts on capital gains. Any of those would be more appropriate than blaming the Fed for income distribution. I personally have no problem with capitalism.

"However, I know for a fact you are a cool person."

Careful! Internet can cause objects to look 50% more cool than in reality.

14 year old 5th graders

Huh? Oh, I see. It is like a 14 years old college freshman, just much dumber.

I also live in San Francisco, though I live South of Market, unlike my illustrious cohorts.

Message of the picture:

Refinance can help you lose 125 lbs, give you a mouthful of brite whites and bask your life in perpetual soft warm late afternoon sun.

Back in the day "dollar bill changers" weren't as high tech as they are today. At our local car wash I can't even get a freshly minted bill to be accepted. Back to "back in the day" when we held a "collection" to buy really neat-o looking play money and tapped out every laundromat on ____ Avenue!

Man! Running from "da cops". It doesn't get any better than that! Have any of you ran from "da cops" with a gym bag from _____ Jr. High filled to the brim w/quarters? C'mon you know! The huffing and puffing and throwing it over "da fence" and stashing it until "the sh!t" cools down?

Ahh. Water ballooning squad cars! That really p!sses "da cops" off. Ever seen a greying 40-ish alcoholic chase kids that can do a 4.4 40? :)

PAR, the rich will always get richer. It is NOT a new paradigm.

This means that no matter how you redistribute wealth, the same group will become rich in no time.

Even with the huge wealth gap the poor in this country have better lives their counterparts in underdeveloped countries.

Forcing equality in a 300M-population-country would be disastrous.

RE: picture

Is she sitting in a convertible WITHOUT wearing a seatbelt? That tends to free a soul in an accident.

www.creditsolutions.com

??

My bad.

Wind in your hair, warm breezes, face looks like... hamburger... :(

astrid says: I assumed eburbed was being facetious. Also, I dispute the characterization of German food as “tasty” though I like Germans overall.

If eburbed was kidding, then he has my apologies. I do know a lot of parents who teach their kids to be "competitive at all costs". Typically their parents were introverts as kids who have since gained a lot of money, and are trying to recreate a "winning" Type-A childhood for their own gratification.

Or maybe it's just that the Type-A people mostly calm down later in life, where the Type-B people are just starting to come into their own.

German food is rather bland. If they could figure out how to put gravy on soup, they would. But many Germans I know cook Italian, Spanish and French cuisine at home. And those folks elevate cooking to a science.

Sorry guys, I always get a little "punchy" in the home stretch of the tax season. I never did any of that stuff. I just made it up. :( :)

DinOR says: Wind in your hair, warm breezes, face looks like… hamburger… :(

That's why I opted for T-tops instead of a full convertible. That steel crossbar absorbs a lot more force than the windshield frame alone.

Okay, I agree that in the abscence of deflationary pressures from China and Moore's Law, there is nothing inherent in the Fed policy to cause asset inflation. But here is what I think is going on:

The Fed targets the money supply as the GDP growth (which is population growth plus productivity growth) plus the inflation component. Let's say that is 2.5% + 2.5% = 5%.

There is also deflationary pressure from goods from China and the computer revolution, so prices in manufactured goods and computers keep going down. The Fed is trying to keep the price of rent and food at 2.5%, so the price of other things has to go up faster to compensate for the deflation. These "other things" are mostly hard assets, causing the prices of homes and stocks to go up. The people who own these things already don't mind of course, the poor don't care but the rest of us are screwed.

There is more to this idea, but I have to run, since my wife wants to go get some Pho in Little Saigon. I'll finish it up later if anyone is interested.

Brand,

LOL! I heard that Germans will try to measure out "a pinch" on a kitchen scale. They're a very exactly bunch.