patrick.net

BigBrother Says:

> Hi FormerApt - Do you really think San Francisco prices
> are declining, and a recession is coming?

I don’t “think” SF prices are declining, they really are declining. While I think the economy will continue to slow in 2007 (due primarily to the dramatic drop in HELOC cash and the dramatic decrease in REIC jobs and income) I’m not predicting a recession (but would not be surprised if we move in to a period that some economists refer to as a recession)…

> B/c from what i’ve seen, property prices are selling FAST
> i.e. 2 weeks and Pending, and there are multiple bidders
> out there on each property.

Do you have MLS access to track the entire market, or are you just talking to a Realtor?

I don’t want to get anyone in trouble so let’s just say I know a guy who works for a SF real estate firm (with two names, the first is the name of an ocean and the second a term used by workers who organize) and they have been told to lie and say that the market is HOT HOT HOT with multiple bidders and if you don’t buy now you will be priced out forever (with that said I’m sure that there are some actual fast sales with multiple bidders)…

Also, I dispute the characterization of German food as “tasty” though I like Germans overall.

I like wieners.

It must be painful to commute now that gas prices are above $3.30, and with the economy booming, traffic must also be painfu crossing the bridges.

I prefer recessions.

BigBrother,

I do disagree with your primary contention that you somehow need to live in SF to know what's happening in SF. Lots of posters (even non-BA posters) are familiar with SF's real estate market.

I also don't think building is necessarily much easier in the more desirable suburbs. There's been lots of previous posts about the difficulty of building in Los Altos or Palo Alto.

especially since just about everyone on this board agree the Gen-Yers are ultra lame.

Thread idea: Why Generation Y is lame?

Peter P,

Who's your employer? You and your wife must have recession proof jobs.

The government really has no business in restricting construction anywhere.

How do propose to solve the commons problem?

You and your wife must have recession proof jobs.

No. There is no such thing as a recession-proof job. However, I believe in creative destruction, even on a very personal level.

How do propose to solve the commons problem?

I have an idea. Let capitalism sort things out on Second Life. Then we duplicate the cartoon utopia in the real world. :)

Peter P,

Be careful, we're both borderline Gen-Yers.

But then, we do seem to welcome self mockery.

We're lame... :(

Be careful, we’re both borderline Gen-Yers.

I never said I am not lame.

However, I know for a fact you are a cool person.

(Graphic)

Hey lady! I know you're tickled pink that you're now "debt free" but would mind grabbing the f@cking steering wheel!?!

My first bike was a garage sale Schwinn. It wasn't much fun to ride being that it weighed more than my father's Pinto. But I did pedal it on my paper route for 2 years until I got enough money to buy a newer used Huffy, which was very upscale, but it was a faux BMX.

That bike was stolen from school 2 weeks after I bought it, and I later saw one of those 14 year old 5th graders from the orphanage riding it. I decided to let him keep it.

www.credit solutions.com

After these f@ckers work you over you'll have WISHED you hit a telephone pole!

Although I personally think that Generation Y is all about the Scorpio Pluto.

thomhall, my point was that the Fed is the wrong target. If you're pissed about the rich getting richer, it's misguided to blame the Fed. I was suggesting that it might be more appropriate to blame capitalism. Or maybe the tax code. Or GW's tax cuts on capital gains. Any of those would be more appropriate than blaming the Fed for income distribution. I personally have no problem with capitalism.

"However, I know for a fact you are a cool person."

Careful! Internet can cause objects to look 50% more cool than in reality.

14 year old 5th graders

Huh? Oh, I see. It is like a 14 years old college freshman, just much dumber.

I also live in San Francisco, though I live South of Market, unlike my illustrious cohorts.

Message of the picture:

Refinance can help you lose 125 lbs, give you a mouthful of brite whites and bask your life in perpetual soft warm late afternoon sun.

Back in the day "dollar bill changers" weren't as high tech as they are today. At our local car wash I can't even get a freshly minted bill to be accepted. Back to "back in the day" when we held a "collection" to buy really neat-o looking play money and tapped out every laundromat on ____ Avenue!

Man! Running from "da cops". It doesn't get any better than that! Have any of you ran from "da cops" with a gym bag from _____ Jr. High filled to the brim w/quarters? C'mon you know! The huffing and puffing and throwing it over "da fence" and stashing it until "the sh!t" cools down?

Ahh. Water ballooning squad cars! That really p!sses "da cops" off. Ever seen a greying 40-ish alcoholic chase kids that can do a 4.4 40? :)

PAR, the rich will always get richer. It is NOT a new paradigm.

This means that no matter how you redistribute wealth, the same group will become rich in no time.

Even with the huge wealth gap the poor in this country have better lives their counterparts in underdeveloped countries.

Forcing equality in a 300M-population-country would be disastrous.

RE: picture

Is she sitting in a convertible WITHOUT wearing a seatbelt? That tends to free a soul in an accident.

www.creditsolutions.com

??

My bad.

Wind in your hair, warm breezes, face looks like... hamburger... :(

astrid says: I assumed eburbed was being facetious. Also, I dispute the characterization of German food as “tasty” though I like Germans overall.

If eburbed was kidding, then he has my apologies. I do know a lot of parents who teach their kids to be "competitive at all costs". Typically their parents were introverts as kids who have since gained a lot of money, and are trying to recreate a "winning" Type-A childhood for their own gratification.

Or maybe it's just that the Type-A people mostly calm down later in life, where the Type-B people are just starting to come into their own.

German food is rather bland. If they could figure out how to put gravy on soup, they would. But many Germans I know cook Italian, Spanish and French cuisine at home. And those folks elevate cooking to a science.

Sorry guys, I always get a little "punchy" in the home stretch of the tax season. I never did any of that stuff. I just made it up. :( :)

DinOR says: Wind in your hair, warm breezes, face looks like… hamburger… :(

That's why I opted for T-tops instead of a full convertible. That steel crossbar absorbs a lot more force than the windshield frame alone.

Okay, I agree that in the abscence of deflationary pressures from China and Moore's Law, there is nothing inherent in the Fed policy to cause asset inflation. But here is what I think is going on:

The Fed targets the money supply as the GDP growth (which is population growth plus productivity growth) plus the inflation component. Let's say that is 2.5% + 2.5% = 5%.

There is also deflationary pressure from goods from China and the computer revolution, so prices in manufactured goods and computers keep going down. The Fed is trying to keep the price of rent and food at 2.5%, so the price of other things has to go up faster to compensate for the deflation. These "other things" are mostly hard assets, causing the prices of homes and stocks to go up. The people who own these things already don't mind of course, the poor don't care but the rest of us are screwed.

There is more to this idea, but I have to run, since my wife wants to go get some Pho in Little Saigon. I'll finish it up later if anyone is interested.

Brand,

LOL! I heard that Germans will try to measure out "a pinch" on a kitchen scale. They're a very exactly bunch.

That’s why I opted for T-tops instead of a full convertible. That steel crossbar absorbs a lot more force than the windshield frame alone.

I prefer conventional cars. I need more steel for protection. I don't think I will ever get any type of convertibles. :(

Jimbo,

Hope you have a good pho meal :)

astrid says: LOL! I heard that Germans will try to measure out “a pinch” on a kitchen scale. They’re a very exactly bunch.

Definitely. There are rules, astrid. And the rules MUST be followed. Recipies are specific instructions; only a maniac would put something like "season to taste".

Doh!

-mine
+mein

Randy H Says:

> My first bike was a garage sale Schwinn. It wasn’t much
> fun to ride being that it weighed more than my father’s
> Pinto. But I did pedal it on my paper route for 2 years until
> I got enough money to buy a newer used Huffy…

My old Schwinn was also very heavy so I did whatever I could to make it lighter including taking off the chain guard and then cutting off the tabs and for the chain guard and any excess metal I could find. I remember an old motorcycle racer told me “if you find 16 places to take off an ounce you will save a pound”…

It blows my mind how light the new carbon bikes are today, but I don’t see the point in spending so much to save a few pounds. I have not bought a new bike in about 10 years and unless there is some major technological breakthrough I may never buy another bike since I’m as happy with my (Moots/XTR/Mavic) Mountain bike and (Lightspeed/Dura Ace/Mavic) Road bike today as the day I bought them…

I had a very deprived childhood. My parents neglected to teach me how to ride a bicycle until I was well into my teens and then I just couldn't balance myself properly.

And it wasn't a lack of money. My dad was just a very inattentive parent and my mom wasn't around much.

Pls, someone tell me they live in the city?
Cupertino been in BA since early 70's

No its not Doom and Gloom but rather the nonsense
I see from many cheerleaders who dont understand
our economy. So label me Anti-Cheerleaders!

On the question of Globalization and China -
Some of you kids are showing your age... Long Before
China we have been outsourcing production of HT goods and now
services to Korea, Taiwan, Thialand, Singapore, Korea, Japan
Philippines and many other "Asian Tiger Nations" for several decades now.
India China and Russia are just new kids on the block! LOL!

As for products being cheaper.. well Moors Law never mentioned that the cost would decline. Infact he never forsaw Japan or Other nations productions below the cost of US labor. Otherwise they would have scaled their operations accordingly instead of tripping up in the 80's and 90's.
I see we all forgot this!

As for products being cheaper... well Moore's Law never mentioned that the cost would decline.

Why is deflation seen as such a disaster? I have never understood the implication of a threat from deflation. It's been described as the Fed's worst nightmare. How so?

That picture really says it all. Hands off the wheel, throwing care to the wind along with all her debt, responsibility, conscience...

Gen X, Gen Y, whatever. It's been my observation that most on this blog are 'old school'. We still believe that spending beyond one's means is somehow wrong, that amassing debt to a factor of double-digits one's net worth is insane, and that responsibility for one's financial decisions is utlimately their own. Such a quaint notion accountability has become. Bail outs, refi-ATMS, foreclosure and other creative means of shirking debt just don't cut it with Gen P (Patrick.netters?).

As for 2007, I don't think it will match my 2006 earnings. I did very well last year (a little too well as I see from TurboTax ). I'm looking for other opportunities, but the Silicon Valley is all gaga over Web 2.0 and Google and click-through-ads, which all pale in comparison to the glory days when at least *some* startups actually had a real product to sell.

My own personal career interests aside, I do wonder what will replace the RE frenzy that has kept CA's economy afloat. Buying and selling of homes between current homedebtors is no better a business model than amassing Linden dollars in Second Life. At some point, the realization that the new 'wealth' is all pretend will hit home (pun intended). I have some dark hope that it will happen in 2007.

Thanks for letting me cathart all over the place.