patrick.net

The NAR's reluctant prediction of a historic first-time-ever fall in national home prices has been mentioned already here. I just wanted to point you towards the WSJ's take on it:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117630064272466348.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_most_pop

Realtors Forecast Falling Home Prices

The National Association of Realtors, which has long proclaimed that U.S. home prices haven't declined on a nationwide basis since the Great Depression, now says they are likely to do just that this year...

This is the particularly interesting and funny segment:

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association suggested that the media's intense focus on the housing crunch, and shoot-from-the-hip responses from legislators and regulators, threatened to make the situation worse. In an email Tuesday, the association told its members that it has allocated an extra $5 million to combat "a torrent of unfair press and counterproductive policy responses" sparked by the turmoil in the subprime market, where dozens of lenders have been forced to close down or seek bankruptcy protection.

The $5 million budget for extra advertising, research and lobbying is equivalent to about 10% of the trade group's annual budget. The association said it is trying "to shift the media focus away from the 'foreclosure crisis' to the potential for a 'credit crunch' that could result from over-legislation and over-regulation."

Wow. 10% of the MBA's budget is going towards an ad campaign, WHILE they blame the media for (a large part of) this mess?

Well, I guess we all forgot - it's not the fault of FBs, Realtors (TM), lenders, or even MBS investors. IT'S THE MEDIA'S FAULT!

I hope for peace. I am just worried that a premature withdrawal may lead to more violence.

I have NEVER had a problem with premature withdrawl.

They're not asking for withdrawl at this time. They just want benchmarks so we can get out at somepoint rather than get sucked into a rerun or Vietnam or Soviet invasion of Afganistan.

"I have NEVER had a problem with premature withdrawl."

How about Mrs Skibum?

I am getting worried about that too.

Let's talk about something cheerful. Like cakes.

I like cakes.

skibum,

If the MBA (Mortgage B*ttf@ckers Association) is delusional enough to believe that an urgent situation requiring a direct and immediate bail-out will *not* create added scrutiny on their practices they might as well disband.

So what's next?

"Now is a really great time to borrow money against your home OR pay off debt" ad campaign? WTF?

I like cakes with fair amount of alcohol and cream.

Cakes are okay.

Fresh bread with edible oily substance is better.

StuckBA
7- And finally, the only thing standing between you cheap rental ($2500!!) and having your family on the street is the ability of your landlord not to default (except if he bought a long time ago and you cover his costs !!!)

Jimbo would disagree with this. Somehow he thinks landlords just settle for what the market will bear, and will keep renting out at a loss indefinitely.

How about Mrs Skibum?

Ha ha. Not that I'm aware of, or would ever admit to.

An immediate bailout *will* cause mortgage funding to dry up overnight. Hardcore bubbleheads should cheer for it. But reasonable people like us should see beyond that and think for the economy in the long run.

Brioche is a happy compromise between the two.

Rich Man's Brioche for everyone!

The want to starve troops in Iraq but they are going to help stupid, clueless homedebtors who did not bother to read fineprints?

In a politician's mind:

Stupid, clueless homedebtors = sizable chunk of the regularly voting and contributing 69% "owner" electorate. Therefore, their opinions (however uninformed) count.

Sleazy mtg. brokers, banksters & Wall Street = massive campaign contributors, also providing lots of expensive vacations fact-finding junkets for lawmakers. Therefore, their opinions count.

Troops = Tiny fraction of electorate that can be expected to dependably vote "conservative" (whatever that's supposed to mean these days), and can safely be ignored, except when photo ops are needed for re-election.

JBRs and responsible savers = Outnumbered, disenfranchised powerless underclass that can be safely ignored at all times.

Peter P,

That's true. Short term, both a bailout and stricter oversight of the mtg industry would be just what the doctor ordered. A bailout would likely highlight increased risk and drive up risk premiums, while the oversight would tighten lending standards. But as you point out, this would be yet another nail in the coffin for America's consumer-driven economy.

astrid Says:

> The Democrats and a growing number of Republicans
> want to get American troops out of the dangerous quagmire
> that is Iraq.

The Democrats and Moderate Republicans may “want” to get the troops out of Iran, but they are so afraid that they will lose votes from the gung ho “let’s kick some towlhead ass/America should not cut and run” members of both parties that are not really “doing” anything to get them home (They are a lot like Casey Serin who “wants” to avoid forclosure, but does not actually “do” anything to stop it). Democrats and Moderate Republicans are just making a lot of noise to try and make their left leaning voters happy while the nutball right wing Republicans charge ahead “trying to make the world safe for Democracy” (not knowing that Casey Serin had a better chance of avoiding foreclosure than we do making Iraq safe for Democracy)…

I don't get the joke about premature withdrawl, but I would advocate more modern birth control techniques.

"and will keep renting out at a loss indefinitely"

So far, so good! :)

Brioche is a happy compromise between the two.

Let them eat cake.

See, cake and the subprime mess are married.

Justme Says:
"As you can tell, I’m trying to make he point that a “free market” very often is not the best solution to a problem. Regulation is key, and it applies to many markets, both purely economic ones and a few other ones. "

The general thought is that regulation and a free market don't go together. I believe contemporary schools of thought recognize that a free market simply means government does not attempt to influence the free movement of prices or attempt to stifle competition. Government through social policy and regulation may put constraints on activity, but free markets can thrive within the constraints of even highly regulated industries.

FAB,

I don't know where you checked, but there aren't too many of those people in the Democratic party nowadays, except maybe a couple of worthless DLCers (I distrusted them since 1996). Don't blame me, I loathed Bush before he won the Republican Primaries in 2000 and know Iraq was going to be horrible as soon as it was mentioned.

Not that anyone ever listens.

Sometimes, I think I should change my middle name to Cassandra.

Peter, are we considered commoners for liking cake?

"I don’t get the joke about premature withdrawl,"

Then you are a very lucky woman, Astrid

Peter, are we considered commoners for liking cake?

I afraid so.

Well, I guess some people don't know what they are missing.

Of course, once man has become wildly successful and tamed the environment, evolutionary pressure decreases — when the environment no longer presents a challenge, biological evolution slows down. However, there is a further social stratification process that tends to select for intelligence, for instance.

DS,

I'm not 100% sure that evolution has actually "slowed down". The same biological mechanisms most responsible for producing evolution in the past (genetic mutations, reproduction/sexual selection) are still very much in play. I just think it's possible that today's high-tech/predator-free environment is producing a very different set of factors that determine evolutionary success. Consider: Idiocracy

Huh? Cake or [apparently bad sex]?

I like layered cake. It looks very happy.

Vanilla bean cake, mmm

Harm, in your opinion will the population just become increasingly stratified with a troglite class, or will the human race itself collapse because of the lack of predators to clean the gene pool? Or will humanity sustain itself through technology as a hypochondriac race? Will humanity decay to become nothing but subprime borrowers?

Vanilla bean anything is good.

Vanilla bean can be used in savory dishes like fish.

HARM said: Consider: Idiocracy

Was anyone else disappointed with the movie? I thought the idea was very good and they could have done a lot with it, but it was very light and unsatisfying overall.

Cake, sex it's the same part of the brain.

lack of predators to clean the gene pool?

Perhaps predatory lending will clean up the gene pool.

Excellent sleeper movie "The Hoax". Not an action movie but so interesting it kept my focus.

DQ numbers are out for the Bay Area:

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0407.shtm

Looks like more of the same.

No, Congress needs a dirty gene pool for its own purposes. Nothing like masses of voter blocks tantalized by shiny things.

What will happen with evolution is unpredictable. There might an epidemic and the human population after that might be dominated by those who survive it.

In the absence of that, evolution will proceed as usual. Which males are healthy enough to live and are considered desirable by women will have many kids and so on.

What do you guys think about savory pastries?