patrick.net

"I have NEVER had a problem with premature withdrawl."

How about Mrs Skibum?

I am getting worried about that too.

Let's talk about something cheerful. Like cakes.

I like cakes.

skibum,

If the MBA (Mortgage B*ttf@ckers Association) is delusional enough to believe that an urgent situation requiring a direct and immediate bail-out will *not* create added scrutiny on their practices they might as well disband.

So what's next?

"Now is a really great time to borrow money against your home OR pay off debt" ad campaign? WTF?

I like cakes with fair amount of alcohol and cream.

Cakes are okay.

Fresh bread with edible oily substance is better.

StuckBA
7- And finally, the only thing standing between you cheap rental ($2500!!) and having your family on the street is the ability of your landlord not to default (except if he bought a long time ago and you cover his costs !!!)

Jimbo would disagree with this. Somehow he thinks landlords just settle for what the market will bear, and will keep renting out at a loss indefinitely.

How about Mrs Skibum?

Ha ha. Not that I'm aware of, or would ever admit to.

An immediate bailout *will* cause mortgage funding to dry up overnight. Hardcore bubbleheads should cheer for it. But reasonable people like us should see beyond that and think for the economy in the long run.

Brioche is a happy compromise between the two.

Rich Man's Brioche for everyone!

The want to starve troops in Iraq but they are going to help stupid, clueless homedebtors who did not bother to read fineprints?

In a politician's mind:

Stupid, clueless homedebtors = sizable chunk of the regularly voting and contributing 69% "owner" electorate. Therefore, their opinions (however uninformed) count.

Sleazy mtg. brokers, banksters & Wall Street = massive campaign contributors, also providing lots of expensive vacations fact-finding junkets for lawmakers. Therefore, their opinions count.

Troops = Tiny fraction of electorate that can be expected to dependably vote "conservative" (whatever that's supposed to mean these days), and can safely be ignored, except when photo ops are needed for re-election.

JBRs and responsible savers = Outnumbered, disenfranchised powerless underclass that can be safely ignored at all times.

Peter P,

That's true. Short term, both a bailout and stricter oversight of the mtg industry would be just what the doctor ordered. A bailout would likely highlight increased risk and drive up risk premiums, while the oversight would tighten lending standards. But as you point out, this would be yet another nail in the coffin for America's consumer-driven economy.

astrid Says:

> The Democrats and a growing number of Republicans
> want to get American troops out of the dangerous quagmire
> that is Iraq.

The Democrats and Moderate Republicans may “want” to get the troops out of Iran, but they are so afraid that they will lose votes from the gung ho “let’s kick some towlhead ass/America should not cut and run” members of both parties that are not really “doing” anything to get them home (They are a lot like Casey Serin who “wants” to avoid forclosure, but does not actually “do” anything to stop it). Democrats and Moderate Republicans are just making a lot of noise to try and make their left leaning voters happy while the nutball right wing Republicans charge ahead “trying to make the world safe for Democracy” (not knowing that Casey Serin had a better chance of avoiding foreclosure than we do making Iraq safe for Democracy)…

I don't get the joke about premature withdrawl, but I would advocate more modern birth control techniques.

"and will keep renting out at a loss indefinitely"

So far, so good! :)

Brioche is a happy compromise between the two.

Let them eat cake.

See, cake and the subprime mess are married.

Justme Says:
"As you can tell, I’m trying to make he point that a “free market” very often is not the best solution to a problem. Regulation is key, and it applies to many markets, both purely economic ones and a few other ones. "

The general thought is that regulation and a free market don't go together. I believe contemporary schools of thought recognize that a free market simply means government does not attempt to influence the free movement of prices or attempt to stifle competition. Government through social policy and regulation may put constraints on activity, but free markets can thrive within the constraints of even highly regulated industries.

FAB,

I don't know where you checked, but there aren't too many of those people in the Democratic party nowadays, except maybe a couple of worthless DLCers (I distrusted them since 1996). Don't blame me, I loathed Bush before he won the Republican Primaries in 2000 and know Iraq was going to be horrible as soon as it was mentioned.

Not that anyone ever listens.

Sometimes, I think I should change my middle name to Cassandra.

Peter, are we considered commoners for liking cake?

"I don’t get the joke about premature withdrawl,"

Then you are a very lucky woman, Astrid

Peter, are we considered commoners for liking cake?

I afraid so.

Well, I guess some people don't know what they are missing.

Of course, once man has become wildly successful and tamed the environment, evolutionary pressure decreases — when the environment no longer presents a challenge, biological evolution slows down. However, there is a further social stratification process that tends to select for intelligence, for instance.

DS,

I'm not 100% sure that evolution has actually "slowed down". The same biological mechanisms most responsible for producing evolution in the past (genetic mutations, reproduction/sexual selection) are still very much in play. I just think it's possible that today's high-tech/predator-free environment is producing a very different set of factors that determine evolutionary success. Consider: Idiocracy

Huh? Cake or [apparently bad sex]?

I like layered cake. It looks very happy.

Vanilla bean cake, mmm

Harm, in your opinion will the population just become increasingly stratified with a troglite class, or will the human race itself collapse because of the lack of predators to clean the gene pool? Or will humanity sustain itself through technology as a hypochondriac race? Will humanity decay to become nothing but subprime borrowers?

Vanilla bean anything is good.

Vanilla bean can be used in savory dishes like fish.

HARM said: Consider: Idiocracy

Was anyone else disappointed with the movie? I thought the idea was very good and they could have done a lot with it, but it was very light and unsatisfying overall.

Cake, sex it's the same part of the brain.

lack of predators to clean the gene pool?

Perhaps predatory lending will clean up the gene pool.

Excellent sleeper movie "The Hoax". Not an action movie but so interesting it kept my focus.

DQ numbers are out for the Bay Area:

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0407.shtm

Looks like more of the same.

No, Congress needs a dirty gene pool for its own purposes. Nothing like masses of voter blocks tantalized by shiny things.

What will happen with evolution is unpredictable. There might an epidemic and the human population after that might be dominated by those who survive it.

In the absence of that, evolution will proceed as usual. Which males are healthy enough to live and are considered desirable by women will have many kids and so on.

What do you guys think about savory pastries?

That NYT "rent vs. buy" calculator is good, however, it doesn't include a scenario where you rent until prices stabilize and THEN buy in which case everything changes. No one really knows how long they are going to be living in a house, life throws a curve ball once in a while.

The bottom line is (and it doesn't even matter if renting costs get more expensive than buying costs) it will not be a good time to buy until prices stabilize. Prices are so far from the fundamentals and are losing the support that got them there. Prices have to not only stop falling, but they have to rise with inflation; this is the true bottom. If prices just stop falling, they can stay there for a decade or longer which means they are still falling in real value (with inflation).

I think after the steep fall, people are going to be very careful about throwing money at real estate like they recently were. I think it's probably going to take a decade or so to absorb all the inventory out there; so my prediction is that after prices stop falling nominally, they will just go sideways for a long time, at which point it is a good time to look for foreclosures.

One would think, but the people who seem to propogate don't seem to me to be the fittest or brightest.

What do you guys think about savory pastries?

I love the stuff. Tommy Toy's in SF has a "signature" Lobster Bisque pastry that's very good. South American meat pies are also very good.

"What do you guys think about savory pastries?"

I'm in favor of them.