patrick.net

Maybe the question some should be asking … Is 800K really gonna stick?
And we all know what the answer is to that. Its real value will go down reall deep and hard.

"deep and hard" are pretty relative terms. But I doubt they're going to go back to $150k of 10 years ago (which isn't true to begin with since in 1997, prices were already at $350+ plus range for a house around here.) Inflation alone would ratchet it up.

BEAR CAPITULATION ALERT!!!:
Surfer-X just put in a bid on a CA POS. Wow 8O.

X-Man,

I hope you're pulling our legs here. If not, I hope you *really* low-balled them. If funding really dries up as you say, what do you think that's going do to future prices and sales? Seriously man, think it over before you close.

If it were me, I'd pray for sellers to reject it and wait a bit longer. Either way, though, I wish you & Mrs. X the best of luck.

“deep and hard” are pretty relative terms. But I doubt they’re going to go back to $150k of 10 years ago (which isn’t true to begin with since in 1997, prices were already at $350+ plus range for a house around here.) Inflation alone would ratchet it up.

eburbed,

I don't think anyone here expects prices to revert back to 1997 levels. That's a page out of TOS's book - build a straw man argument to knock it down.

Ironic, this happens just as I get done with a thread about low-balling:

Evil Buyers Display Extreme Cruelty to Distressed Sellers

HARM,

What does a guy with a 780 FICO care if "funding dries up"? If it does, this person would have almost nothing to worry about as credit will always be extended to folks in this range. IMHO.

DinOR,

No kidding. I think it may be time for an "intervention". May have to stock up on tequila, gather the "team" and head over to $anta Barbara this weekend.

@HARM,

Now that my tax season concludes in about 4 minutes I can clear my desk and get headed south straight away!

I still have my doubts that "is" X or that he isn't pulling our leg? Prices in his area are likely higher than when I first started posting here or are only down slightly from 05's highs. I think the "give away" was mentioning "short form filing" and calfha.

"I don’t think anyone here expects prices to revert back to 1997 levels. That’s a page out of TOS’s book"

When prices decline in 1991, they rolled back to 1986 (Six years). Did we not have higher inflation back then? That was then this is now. There are no hardpressed rules that dictate prices cannot fall down to I say 1998-99 prices. Thats still in the cards.

Do you expect another wave of "6-millionaires a day" as it was back in 1999. No that game is over. You may have caught yesterdays Mercury News regarding top 150 SV employers. I been following it for long time. Do you relize many more companies are being taken out with M&A then new start-up created over even IPOs to the market.

Im still surprised by many of you who think even 600K is normal for Bay Area? If anything we are streaming into a period of deflation, which at the end will be far better off.

"BEAR CAPITULATION ALERT!!!"

LOL! no sin walking into an open house (asking $650K) and saying

I will give you $350K.
Realtor laughs and you show them the zillow chart of last sale at $200K in 1997 and ask,
"Oh! Whats changed in 10 years that warrents 200-300% increase?

LOL! Realtor may even want to sell you his Yahoo he paid $350/share.
Oh "Whats changed?"

600k is kind of a 'trigger' point for me and my wife. If we find a house we like for 600k, we'd buy it. That would require about a 25% cut in housing prices, based on what I see right now.

If prices stick, we'll keep saving for a downpayment until we can make a downpayment large enough that our debt/income is comfortably below 3. I'm willing to sacrifice 'investment opportunities' to have a happy wife in a house we like, can easily pay off in a few years, and wouldn't lose if we wound up on one salary.

Prices in his area are likely higher than when I first started posting here or are only down slightly from 05’s highs.

Ventura has taken quite a sch-lacking lately and it is within our budget now. I just don't know, way back when, in the mid 90's, just out of grad school 1, I was making decent coin but had no down, it just wouldn't work. I do have doubts in that if you don't have the down maybe you shouldn't sign the forms and make the payments. Mrs-X and I have no deductions, I think our only option to avoid the Uncle Sam man love each year is to go into debt. Either than or do the "my business loses money" thing but the stress might not be worth it. I figure if prices drop to 400K or so, this brings it into reach for those making about 80K, which is two earning 40K, which you can do at Trader Joes. It's the TJ metric. Just don't know. With the tax thingy it costs us about 300 more a month to "buy" in Ventura Vs. rent in $anta Barbara. Just don't know. DinOR, can I contact you offline?

SuCkIt

I charted the price from 10 years to now and the price we offered is dead nuts on what it "should" be now.

Space Ace,

I agree that there will be a period of deflation. The law of averages always wins. However, If you truly think prices can roll back to 1997 levels (I'd be delighted), you have to account for that in real, not nominal prices. In that case, the $350K "median" home of 1997 would be in the range of $500k to 550K, depending on the "true" inflation/appreciation rate you use. That's not that far off $350K.

Space_Ace,

There are other "M.O" indicators at play here as well. We've had countless "imposter surfer x's" at times. Typically X doesn't post during the day (1 if at all). Also the complete and utter lack of malice toward the seller is another give away.

hehehehe no, it's me DinOR, but at work I cannot "express" myself as fully as at home.

There is plenty of malice towards the seller and realtor, low ball bid, actually low low ball. Personal issues are forcing the "owners" to sell and there aren't any other offers out there. I too hope that the whole thing fails as the thought of so much debt added to my clean slate scares the crapola outa me.

Authenticate yourself, alleged surfer.

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

True deflation ignores any inflation at all.

Im sure we can find shortages of raw materals in Japan (which has none at all), but it never materilized into higher inflation over the past 15 years.

Back to 1997 prices may be a rough call, but 1998 is doable. You also have to consider all factors, the high flying and often crashing nature of local economy. Only 10% of 1980s employers made it into the 90's and now only a few are surviving today.

Whats the point of everone here having a $1M+ McMansion in SouthBay when the economy is tanking.

Now I'm REALLY confused.

ALL businesses lose money for at least the first (3) years. Why wouldn't a guy go the "consulting" route and play it out for at least '07 filing and see what the market brings? "I" don't see "funding drying up" for anyone but the LEAST "qualified" buyers. With a 780 and even a little savings this wouldn't include you. Why the sense of urgency now?

"the range of $500k to 550K"... too much for a home here. Thats what I call a CEO Home... When you are being paid that much your job will be exported. Seen that way too many times already.

Everyone wants to play the Chief and no one wants to be just an Indian.

Peter P,

Hear hear! What exactly did Robert bring?

Well??? We're waiting...

Space Ace,

Speaking of "high flying economy," did you catch the SFGate article on the Web 2.0 expo up in SF?

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/17/BUGCQP9MKB1.DTL

How much more smugness can one place have? Everyone's patting themselves on the back over a bunch of smoke and mirrors known as "Web 2.0".

What food item did Robert cote bring to the blog party (with me, last time at your house)?

Hmmm, can't remember what Cote' etal. brought but his wife is pretty hot, (as is Mrs HARM), the Cote'-ette lit off fireworks and painted with Mrs-X.

You brought some interesting Miso, red and blue.

DinOR, just had a list of requirements and a price, found a place that met both. I know that it is going to keep dropping but there has to be a Mexican stand-off somewhere. The current bailout proposals just scream backlash to me, and the way to "assure" that "this doesn't happen again" is to screw the middle class. Plus mini-X is due to arrive in August. I don't like being at the whim of the landlord, I can handle that I have to make the payment, but landlord can at anytime give me a month to get out. Dogs make finding a rental down here a pain in the ass. Landlord is cool, but I'd rather deal with myself.

Thats what I call a CEO Home…

CEO income ranges from $1 to $100M+. I am not sure what you mean.

Outsourcing does not happen overnight. It has a lot of stickiness to it.

BTW, 600K is at the same time a lot and very little depending on how you see it. Wages in India and China are going up like crazy. Perhaps they will catch up to us.

In China, a nice house will still cost you US$ 2M+.

600K gets you nothing more than an old, tiny apartment in many parts of Asia but those people still have jobs.

Peter P,

One could always just search for "blog party" and could have gotten that, right?

One could always just search for “blog party” and could have gotten that, right?

Nope, Peter P's wife (who is also hot) went to the Mission with her friend. Peter P, your miso was interesting, I can't for the life of me figure out how they keep the clams alive.

Bush II is the President, the Cubs won the world series, and Boston is the capital of New York. Sorry, watching too many WWII movies. (authentication of German spies)

I can’t for the life of me figure out how they keep the clams alive.

I now believe the clams where vacuum-packed and then COOKED. That was how they kept them "alive." :)

One could always just search for “blog party” and could have gotten that, right?

I never mentioned the miso though. :)

DinOR, I am not a money guy, the best I can gleen out of the data is that you should only pay ~2.3-3.8x your income on housing. The coast has always been a little more expensive, so I am willing to go about 4x, that's my comfort zone. What did it for me was the calhfa program including 6 months of payments in the deal. 5.625% seems pretty close to free money for me, just from reading you guys, and what I know the inflation to actually be. There is a huge fear factor in the increased monthly nut but not as big as trying to find a new rental with 2 dogs, Mrs-X and Lil-X. Everyone I have interviewed says the same thing, they were scared shitless when the "bought" their first house. We waited and waited and are not willing to do the it's your first house thing, it's supposed to be a crapbox, this place is nice and needs nothing. So screw it.

DinOR, Peter P,

I'm afraid we must conclude that this is the *real* Surfer-X.

X-man, if you were able to get anything liveable (never mind turnkey) in Ventura for 4X non-CEO income, then I guess you really did power-lowball them. Congratulations! You are the first (hopefully among many) on this blog to successfully crack seller's mental accounting and get a truly "fair market" price.

Perhaps Mr. Randall H is next...?

Surfer-X, you have my karmic support. We will manifest your success!

El HARM-O, I have full faith that the realtor/seller's greed will negate any chance of them accepting the fair market value for this one. I had originally predicted 3rd/4th quarter 07 as the point to catch the falling knife. We'll see. Regardless we should start preparing for the summer blog party.

Another bonus of Ventura is Kaiser is available. Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

What is this, "6 months of payments included in the deal" deal?

Dude, the freaking hell we are going through with UnitedHealthCare.

UNH? I sold too early. :(

What is this, “6 months of payments included in the deal” deal?

That depends what the definition of is is.

Re: blog party. I agree.
Am willing to host it at my own pathetic rental, though my place isn't big. LILLL and Athena also mentioned hosting --we'll have to talk offline.

DinOR, calhfa makes the payments if you lose you job, up to 6 months, which from experience is about what it takes to find another decent job.

Well... as long as the seller was utterly financially decimated and sent to the closing with their tail between their legs and has to deal with X's former LL then I guess I can get onboard! :)

Don't forget to add stipulations and reservations all throughout the entire process with statements like "We just assumed the appliances were staying"! Threaten to "back out" at the slightest hint of compromise and just be a general PITA every step of the way! When you're done w/them the LAST thing they'll ever want to do is to flip another house!

OH.... o.k.

I wasn't sure if it was one of those Vegas "cash back deals" or NO payments for the first year! It's about time they have some "PMI" for the buyer! Any other states have similar programs?