patrick.net

Actually a 50% drop would be great for bay area. Recent news on Seagate earnings show that demand is high but downward pricing pressure is very high. This is true with so many employers here.

Lets look at Japan prices declined over 50% yet they are still able to maintain dominance in Consumer and Comercial products world wide. Did Toyota Sony Panasonic Toshiba etc etc go bankrupt? No.. fact is they are No1 in the world.

So how would that make the Bay Area like current-day Detroit?

Lets not forget the Auto Union won every demand from Auto companies.
High costing employers killed the business model that could not compete with cheaper Japanese products. This was also true back in late 80s when Japan dumped DRAM IC and killed off all US DRAM. It was a blood bath we never recovered from. They also dominate SemiEquipment and Mainframe production. Others in Korea Taiwan and Far East has dominated HT manufacturing. Yes Internet revolution gave us a second leg up but that is past now and the question is Whats Next?

That is the Risk not factored into home prices today for the long term. It was back in the 1980s. People were very informed that it can end on a flip of the dime. They did not overspand and did save like crazy.

So the anwser is buried in the past... HIGH EMPLOYEE COST and their mortgages!

Malcolm

I guarantee not all textbooks agree with your interpretation of "how it's done in business".

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/whoswho/bio.cfm?ID=53

Not only did I study directly under Greenwald, but had to use one of the many books he authored.

Another textbook which disagrees with you is:

"Economics of Strategy", Besanko et. al. I studied that under Dr. Kristen Barry, a reasonably prominent IP Patent and Antitrust expert witness and professor.

I didn't say you couldn't patent software. I said, verbatim, a pile of code which serves up records from a database. That is *not* patentable. If you can show me a successfully defended collection of patented SQL statements I'll retract my assertion. You also can't patent general utility functions like sort algorithms. You can patent a particular specific application of a sort algorithm (and thus a formula) like say a mechanism that sorts logical network structures for telco telecom usage (I know because I own such a patent). But you cannot patent* the sort itself, nor the code that expresses that sort.

Code is considered idiomatic anyway by the legal system, and not a source of IP. IP is contained in the concepts expressed in code.

*You can patent, but it is an empty patent easily knocked down by procedural challenges.

Just a question, what exactly do you think I do for a living? I just wonder, given your pronouncement In business we don’t mince words, patents are a legal monopoly. You're clearly speaking to me so as to inform me of my ignorance.

And remember, the Japanese economy was in a recessions for the past 20 years recessions…

What recession?

LOL! Dont kid your self ... walk into Best Buy or Frys... They still make PC Autos consumer and commercial exported products we here in the US envy.

Randy, I just cut and pasted the software patent answer from the legal link. I wasn't challenging you in any way.

How it's done in business has many schools of thought, what are you trying to prove to me?

Malcolm

Then please accept my apology.

Delineating quoted materials is very important in a forum like this. You can do it like TOS does, just using '---'.

Regardless, I still maintain the quoted material is flawed. Whenever I hear anyone speak for a wide diverse group like "we in business" I pretty much know it's BS. It's like saying "we in California...", or even "we on this blog...".

Randy Says:
"Just a question, what exactly do you think I do for a living? I just wonder, given your pronouncement In business we don’t mince words, patents are a legal monopoly. You’re clearly speaking to me so as to inform me of my ignorance. "

I have no idea what you do for a living and I think you carry yourself as someone confident of their point of view.

Randy since you want to argue basic details here you go: For everyone to share in if they wish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_and_patents

Don't stop there. Get to the core of software patents:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_patent_debate

And then we can be cynically narcissistic about using Wiki itself, relying upon Wiki as a data source to criticize using Wiki as a data source.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia#Criticism_and_controversy

And why are we going to debate software patents?

We aren't.

I apologize. I'm just grumpy it's so freakin cold here, with an extra shot of Tam Valley fog to make me dreary.

I've quite enjoyed debating with you today, in fact. It's good to have an exchange that doesn't involve trolls or reactionaries. You are very reasonable, even if we disagree on some things.

Like I said... more people today still buy more Japanese products. All because its cheaper. You asked and I gave you answer many today dont want to hear.
Yet many of us WHO HAVE worked in SV know the facts.

Sorry to hear it. I've enjoyed our discussions. This is one of those few places that people have heated discussions and maintain their decency.

I'm calling it a day anyway. You guys all have a good night.

TOS you failing to recall how many US companies were wipped out in 1990.
Nearly 90% died out. You ask about the next thing. Chances of Next Big Thing is unknown and not factored in the housing prices. There may not be the next big thing... we are nearly 7 years out since 2000. OK where is it?

TOS said "You don’t known."

Read up on the Asian Tigers... go to Wiki

TOS talks about "higher educational systems"

Come on TOS who wants to be a GEEK and Nerd
A freaking Loser -- Goober who does not get laid.

Its easy to learn SW programming. Asia and Europe has
lots of educational system too. Much of atomic theory came
from Austrian schools. Today Europe dominates biotech.
Its alll about Global Competition.... You asked about Detroit
and I gave you facts.

TOS, Im an accountant for the past 15 years.
I know about Mfg and SW industry.
You can forget about currency manipulation thats all meaningless.
Thats not how business is being done. It has no impact at all.
Companies dont rewrite price lists every 30 seconds because
the dollar is strong or weak. It not done that way.

Randy H Says:

> currently, the patent system is 99% broken,
> in my opinion.

I agree…

Then Different Sean Says:

> Just before Christmas Microsoft was granted
> a patent for online bill payment

And bruceb Says:

> if people who know where bathrooms and kitchens
> are located when walking clients thru a home want
> to call themselves professionals, its not a big deal.

Since the patent system has problems I might as well try and make some money off it.

Maybe I can patent “e-mailing photos of cars” or even “walking to the bathroom” (just think of the royalties)…

Randy H Says:

> Delineating quoted materials is very important in a
> forum like this. You can do it like TOS does, just using ‘—’.

It’s also nice to mention the author (or source) of the quote… I often get confused reading posts from TOS (and other confused posters) who just quote the “time” of a quote…

"What is important is the next big thing… i.e. it is all about adaptation and at this game the US is the absolute leader in my humble opinion…"

No ... forget about it... we want specifics.. what is the next big thing?
Again your failing to understand what global competition is!

The next big thing may be in Asia or Montana or Switerland. There is no longer a monopoly in SV on innovation. Thats been proved time and time again. Microsoft, AOL, IBM, Redhat, DEC, Lotus were not SV companies.

Im not bashing our nation, but everyone up to CEOs of corporations are not idiot cheerleaders. Business in the valley turns on a dime.

Space Ace,

you cannot force the next big thing, nobody can force it. But one thing is for sure, the next big thing will only come out of a country with the following characteristics:
1) Freedom of thinking and expression
2) Solid education for the top 10% population, and acceptable quality for the rest
3) Good legal system so everyone's interest is appropriately guarded. Relatively low corruption.
4) Land with good with weather and free of pollution

You may laugh at 4), but if you are a top talent who is sought after by job opportunities rather than the other way around, you would want to live in a place conducive to a long, healthy life.

I predict the countries of choice to be USA, Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, UK, France and Germany. It is extremely unlikely that any country outside the above mentioned will come up with the next big thing. None of these countries are cheap. Cost is not the main issue in innovation, creativity is. And creativity usually comes with a high cost.

Oh my. This is the second time in 2 days that I agree with TOS.

It's a common tendency on housing blogs to write off US. I completely disagree. US dominance may diminish, it will go through economic pain and standard of living may go down. But it will still remain the biggest economic powerhouse for the foreseeable future. Europe / Japan / Australia / Canada / China / India / Whatever will not replace it so soon.

The global economy is nothing but amazingly myriad feedback loops. It will oscillate constantly and will forever be in a changing equilibrium. (I am trying to be poetic here.)

Even declining US$ will be both good and bad.

I am betting my money on it.

One thing that makes me feel good about America when watching shows like Property Ladder is, people are willing to get their hands dirty to make things happen.

I know it sounds almost comical, how can I feel good about idiot amateur flippers who have absolutely no idea of what they are doing? I do feel awful about that. But whenever I see some flipper trying very hard to learn to do certain things to make the schedule, I feel good.

This is a quality quite unique to Americans, or people groomed under western education system that fosters DIY. In eastern Asian culture, for example, people are divided into several camps fairly early, the scholars (those who score As throughout their schools and become well-paid professional), the mass, and the laborers. Except for the laborers, nobody in the society is willing to get his hands dirty. None of my classmates or friends in China or Hong Kong know anything about items displayed in hardware stores, because they believe this is beneath them. You are taught from childhood that such task is reserved for the laborers and maids, your time is too precious to be spent on fixing your own home or your own car.

You see much less of such an attitude here. Regardless of their income, class or background, when something needs to get done, you just do it. This makes me more hopeful about the country.

SP got it right ... also the local business will be happy with pressure off spending and focus investing into important R&D projects...
Folks money doesnt grow on trees for business. Money sucked out for high employee costs could be better spent on future needs.

OO-

1) Freedom of thinking and expression --- see Sputnick
2) Solid education for the top 10% population, and acceptable quality for the rest --- Steve Jobs and the Woz were C city students.
3) Good legal system so everyone’s interest is appropriately guarded. Relatively low corruption.... Lets get back to Microsoft monoply and shady business practice to drive out competition.
4) Land with good with weather and free of pollution
Excuse me... what good is that when you dont have funding.

You should always bear in mind .. .never underestimate the next guy...
and we did lots of that and lost many markets. Thats bad...

I personally know of few VCs .. and will say what they tell me ...
"What can be done has been done".... we are passing into mature phase of markets.. Competition and Low cost structures are the future if you wish future growth.

Anyone watching Asian markets ?
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

These things turn on a dime. One day up to sky, another day a sea of red. Fun stuff.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EHSI&t=2y

never underestimate the next guy...

Space Ace,

VCs don't spur the next innovation, people do. I happen to know one of the "next guy", China, inside out. I was an expat there and have lots of connections in China. Most of the highly connected insiders vote by feet by acquiring American passports for the entire family, or sending their kids overseas, and make sure they don't return until they become foreign citizens.

When the worldwide recession hits, a lot of the glamor of these developing countries will just fade away. In the last one and half century, only ONE country in the world made it from the developing camp to the developed camp, Japan. There is a reason why many developing countries remained developing for the last one and half century, and likely will remain so for the next one and half century.

US is not perfect, it is just closer to being perfect than a lot of other countries on earth. For every single criticism you come up about the US, I can cite the same and much more for Japan, China, Australia, etc., places that I know about, but I am just too lazy to elaborate.

Space Ace,

I feel that you should take a job in one of the "next guys" and try it out for yourself before extolling them to the sky. They are not what they seem.

Ugh, somebody put up a new thread please.

“next guys”

Since 1991 I been in startups.. 2 IPOs 1 in registration and moving on to my 4th I hope next month.

:)

Here is something to ponder on...Goodnite...

Silicon Valley leaders to lobby lawmakers
Survey says housing prices, red tape threaten economy

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/04/22/BUG41CCUCL1.DTL

The Silicon Valley Leadership Group will warn legislators that high home prices and government red tape top the list of threats to the region's high- tech economy. Members of the organization, formerly called the Silicon Valley Manufacturers Group, include 190 firms that collectively employ 250,000 people in the region.

A recent survey of its members ranked the top five business challenges facing Silicon Valley firms as home prices, business regulations, workers' compensation costs, health care expenses and the cost of worker retention. The results will be discussed at a summit Monday at Adobe Systems in San Jose.

At a time when the high cost of housing, labor and just about everything else are being blamed for driving jobs out of Silicon Valley, the survey said one-third of the companies in the sample exported local jobs in 2004. No figures were put on the losses, nor did the survey specify where those jobs went.

Based on anecdotal reports from members, however, Leadership Group President Carl Guardino said most of them were lost to other states, not other nations. "That means we can compete for them if we make the right public policy choices,'' he said.

The Silicon Valley Leadership Group will warn legislators that high home prices and government red tape top the list of threats to the region’s high- tech economy.

That is obvious.

SP,

That is a 'teaser site' to a discount brokerage. The thought is that if you list on MLS for free through them, they can upsell you to use their selling tools and their buyer's agents. (A lot of sellers are also buyers is their thinking.)

So... you list through them, and hopefully use some of their non-free tools, and then when you go to buy you remember what a good deal they were, and use their discount agents.

Loss Leader in online mortgaging? Who'd a thunk?

"Business leaders complain about government regulation and the high cost of labor."

Isn't that a headline from the 1920's? Or just about any other decade? Give me a break.

OO said:

In the last one and half century, only ONE country in the world made it from the developing camp to the developed camp, Japan.

I think Spain counts and Italy too, if you are being honest. There is one thing these three countries have in common: none of them have been colonies, at least not in a very long time. There is something about being subject to the colonial whims of another country that sets a nation back economically.

This is part of the reason I am so optimistic about China: the Chinese are optimistic about China.

Jimbo,

The Chinese are more optimistic out of ignorance than enthusiasm. I'm not optimistic about the people there. People there don't have much work ethic or public spiritedness. For most, it's about the jackpot or the silver bullet that's going to make them rich.