patrick.net

I am better than you
Debt is good, greed is good, suck
On your knees peasant

I swagger, move over
You have no debt you maggot
You are a loser

Pathetic renter
You wish you had my debt load
Wealth now equals debt

All rain, did it pop?
This prime area reigns supreme
Give me more money

Mo Money Money
It is the reason I live
Real Estate Asshat

Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain
NorCal is a magic place
It always goes up

Did I mention wealth?
My debt is the same as cash
My wife’s ass is fat

Soon you fleas will feel
The wrath my equity brings
On your knees peasant

They gave me money
It was for free, all for me
My kids are obese

I post on blogs
There will be a spring bounce fools
I run with the hogs

TM-Surfer-X all rights reserved, all wrongs denied.

Sort of a short Haiku:

$800k McMansion
I/O ARM Financing
Foreclosure awaits

@nomadtoons,

Haiku are

5 syllables
7 syllables
5 syllables

Try it, I think you will find it enjoyable

with foes so near
only whisper
i bailed in "05"
before september

none can know
i've lost the faith
trolling boards
for the next big thing
searching, scrounging
hawking bling

listings languish
it's buyers i need
they're the life blood
on which I feed

over leveraged
commissions spent
pressures on
no spin left
all is lost

A variable;
Ellusive, where can it be?
To correlate me?

Could it be housing
Inflation, statistics, or
Rent versus mortgage?

Try to quantify,
Qualify and clarify.
(One just wants to cry)

Limit of how high
Insanity dares to climb?
Ignorance, to blame.

ha ha,
thanks for the explanation. What's amazing to me is that a while back, Mayor Feinstein started a study as to why there is a deline in families in SF with children. Yup- that's where your tax dollars go- to fund projects with answers everyone already knows.

Surfer,
My mom was a literature teacher. You would've thought Haikus would come easy to me. Pitty the reality.

ah, yes
the waiting list
it is for free
it costs nothing
throw your hat in the ring

back-up buyers
need to be qualified?
no, it's just paper
that we can present
keep the cash flow flowing
to make our own rent

@nomadtoons, it is pretty easy once you get the hang of it. If there is a line you like but it doesn't fit, move it aside and use it later.

Surfer X,

True enough, haikuing can be fun but it doesn't come naturally to many of us. I think we were indoctrinated to believe poetry should always rhyme, phrases, verses and stanzas?

This is a limerick, not a haiku.

There once was a troll named JohnJake,
Who said we all made a mistake.
"Homes quickly get sold,
Don't get left in the cold!"
It's too bad that his words are all fake.

I smell troll, HARM where is your can of Troll-b-gone?

Surfer X,
I think I am more along the lines of someone who admires Ed Wood, who apprently could type faster and longer while completely drunk than any known screenwriter of his day.

So what do you think is going to happen to the first two hundred or so Google employees? Think about it. The Bay Area is filled with generations of RICH very-early-retirees. Once again, this area is high stakes poker and you all are sitting in the bingo hall. Good luck!

There are many local markets in the Bay Area and there are many price segments. "Early GOOG retirees" will probably be interested in homes north of 1.5M, which have not been strong during thoughout this boom anyway.

Homes cheaper than 500K are at risk. There is no way Googlers are going to subject themselve to such misery. Going above 750K or so and there may be some support.

This place is NOT high stakes poker. Much of the Bay Area is still below the $1000 per sf mark.

I have started looking for signs of a potential soft landing in some areas.

I smell troll, HARM where is your can of Troll-b-gone?

Surfer-X,

Who needs Troll-b-gone when you have skillful anti-troll wordsmiths such as yourself & Skibum? They don't stand a chance. :-)

@AmazedinSF,
Thanks for working "Ha Has" into your Haiku.

All,
Excellent work! If you don't like Haiku, feel free to write limmericks, free verse, whatever you prefer.

Harm,

Agreed. Vegas, crashed. Boston, crashing. Phoenix, on the verge. Coast to coast things are looking ragged but it's this one stubborn troll in the only market that hasn't collapsed (yet) touting selective anecdotal "evidence" proudly declaring all is well. My father served in Korea and he said it was amazing that no sooner had they shelled an entire hill to oblivion they would come up and hear little birds already chirping.

Chirp on little bird.

Surfer X,

I'm sure HARM didn't extend that invite to include Andrew "Dice" Clay poetry O.K?

I have started looking for signs of a potential soft landing in some areas. -- Peter P

I have also started to look for such signs in Marin, excluding Novato, most of San Rafael, and Marin City.

We talked a long long time ago about likely zones of support where a soft landing would be expected. Aside from the obvious wealth enclaves (Belvedere, Woodside, Atherton, etc.), there will probably be support in areas like South Marin, Menlo/Palo, Los Altos/Gatos and such.

Odd how trolls can't write
Haiku. Too bad. Perhaps we
Can try to help them?

Some more Troll-ku for you (thanks for the inspiration, Surfer-X):

Jealous and bitter
Renters. Whining about their
Sad pathetic lives.

Why so jealous, sad
Little bear? Do you envy
My big fat green stacks?

Don't you know the path
To happiness lies in debt?
We are what we owe.

There is no hope for
Bears, priced out forever while
Your neighbor grows rich.

No Bubble, no burst
Plunge Protection at work, while
Foreclosure dreams fade.

Sad little renter,
All your hopes dashed. On your knees
Suck it long, suck hard.

I'm glad limericks are allowed:

There once was a troll realt-whore
Who's rants we could't ignore
"Don't listen to wrecks
Like HaHa, Surfer-X
For renting will keep you all poor"

Randy H and Peter P,

Are you gouys implying that BA RE prices won't crash and we will actualy get a soft landing ? Or you are just investigating the probability of this happening ? Specifically for some areas or entire BA ?

I must admit, I was a bit surprised to read your comments.

To BA Or Not To BA,

Speaking for myself only, when I talk about hard vs. soft landing I'm talking about a macro perspective. I don't claim to know for sure there will be a hard-landing, but I think it's likely. However, this is a macro thing. Even in a hard landing not all areas of the BA will deflate at the same rate. What I'm saying is that during this great run-up the old saying that real estate is location, location, location became less true. Areas that shouldn't support $1M homes had homes selling for $1.2M. As it corrects, those areas will get hit "hard", whereas traditionally wealthier areas probably will get hit "soft".

As the bubble pops again people will focus on location as their three most important factors. Homes in good places will do much better than those in not so good places.

Randy H,

And as Peter P is fond of reminding us, the market is about 97% psychology. B/c most of the other major metro areas are already in various stages of collapsing the BA has been somehow awarded the unique status of "flight to quality". In the early stages of the tech wreck the junk sold off first (dot coms etc.) As it became more clear that fundamentals were clearly lacking the next wave of the sell-off took place and finally when "flight to quality" meant flight to another asset class altogether (in this case bonds and REITS) it didn't matter how solid your balance sheet was or how many consecutive quarters you'd paid or increased your dividend, it was now your turn in the barrel! This is a large part of the reason that our little chirping troll teed me off earlier when he pointed to very specific areas of the Bay. Right now I'd say we're about in the "April 2000" stage for the housing crash.

Skibum,

In this Haiku thread,
it was the best
I have so far read.

Are you gouys implying that BA RE prices won’t crash and we will actualy get a soft landing ? Or you are just investigating the probability of this happening ? Specifically for some areas or entire BA ?

Some price segments in some parts in the Bay Area may not correct as much. The rental sentiment in Lower Peninsula for appears to be heating up. It is not as bad as 1999 because low-end units are still stagnant. This seems to confirm the Google effect.

On the other hand, I was touring some complexes and I was told that there have been more than a few former homeowners turning renters.

Five seven five, the
Price of my crib? Hell no, foo,
It's silly Haiku.

Me have big car, drive
Very far and live in it
Too. Me very Coo!

You are not smart, kid
You hocked your future for dirt
In this here valley.

My wife Sally is
Cute, lazy, and plump: she sports
a supersized rump.

Damn it all, I quit.
I don't give a flying sh-t.
Wait till it crashes.

The dashes become
dots. The tots become teens. The
Stock market deflates.

An algorithm
For disaster is status
quo. Quid, pro quo...Ho!

I've become more dumb.
Literacy is as rare
as children here, see?

The whole lie exposed.
Buttocks of economy
Moons the light of day.

The masses cower
Under their covers for help
As housing plummets.

I must stop this now.
For I'm hungry and want lunch,
Or tea and crumpets.

In the end a lot of the most "laughable" properties that are being offered actually have the least to lose! Some guy that bought a dump in San Jose or Oakland or wherever and never put a lick of work or a dime into improvements heard about "why we are going ga ga over real estate", listed at a ridiculous price (of course not selling it) but WTH, the guys mortgage is like what, 125K anyway. It was wreck back then and it's more of a wreck now. As long as he didn't draw against that "equity" no big deal. Folks that have bought up over the last 1-3 years, different story.

I must admit, I was a bit surprised to read your comments.

I can be very surprising sometimes. Don't be surprised.

In the end a lot of the most “laughable” properties that are being offered actually have the least to lose!

Laughable properties are more volatile. Until recently, people were buying up crap just to hold on to something.

Peter P,

I was referring to some of the laughable listings on the "overvalued" blog and find it hard to believe that the 400 sq. ft. home they showed in Santa Cruz 875K could become that neglected in the span of a few short years. It looked more like DECADES of abuse. But you're right, if someone bought a dump thinking major renovation or tear down just to "get their foot in the door" yeah, they're in for a spanking.

It looked like the "re-fi" house from fantasyland mortgage for crissakes!

Right now I’d say we’re about in the “April 2000″ stage for the housing crash.

Sounds right. Again, April is the cruelist month.

Just think - in a declining or bottomed-out market, do you think anyone will want to pay 1/2 million $$ for a bungalow in south-central LA??

Half-a-mil is a lot of money. It is all about easy money. There will be heartbreaks, lots of them.

Skibum,

The types of listings that I believe I was referring to belonged to "Rip Van Flipper" where it looked like the guy had slept for a hundred years woke up all of a sudden and decided if everbody else was makin' money then he should be able to cash in too! I think Randy H would refer to this as a "me too" listing. Just throwing my hat in the ring kind of a thing. Some of them I've seen didn't even bother to mow the lawn let alone slop paint on. Now that's confidence!

Peter P,

"There will be heartbreaks, lots of them"

I couldn't agree more. It may well tun out that other than "cashing in" and walking away (or staying put on the sidelines) that it's ALL heartbreaks! I was reading that over 1/2 of the mortgages in the country are under 3 years old. My guess is that if someone went to the trouble of doing a re-fi that they went to the trouble of taking the equity out. People keep harping on equity like it's a totally personal thing. It can be, but if your neighbor has none and he's selling b/c of it that won't be of any help to you.

Skibum,

You bring up some good points. Who knows how much equity extraction has gone on in some of these neighborhoods? In more traditional times it would have been limited to the incomes in those areas, but now with shady appraisals and creative financing it just may be possible that someone actually owes 1/2 mil on a South Central bungalow! I'd believe it! I'm sure we'll hear "poster child" cases as this unravels but some of the asking prices appear to an Oregonian anyway that they were just drawn out of thin air.

DinOR,

Good metaphor to the equity markets circa 1999-2002. Similar to that fiasco, what I mean by "soft landing" zones is simply that parts of the BA will probably come out with between 0% and 15% nominal losses (bigger real losses as infl rises). It's the dot-coms of houses that will see the +50% nominal losses.

Take a nice, not super wealthy but quality neighborhood like Menlo Park west of El Camino. Good schools, coherent community, lower turnover than nearby Redwood City or Mountain View, and the bulk of housing stock is owned by very high income families with significant wealth beyond just their home equity. As prices drop fast in Redwood City, prices in Menlo Park will be very sticky on the way down. Many people won't have to move in a bad market because they can afford to wait it out (not all, some will leave for logistic job reasons and sell off the peak). But the hold outs will keep inventory down and prices higher for longer. At worst, nominal prices go flat and then start to dip slowly as the normal turnover starts to produce inventory.

In the shorter term, prices may actually go up in places like Menlo Park. I'm seeing this in parts of Marin right now. What is happening is people are paying a premium because of the "me-too" crap that's hitting the market in droves. If I just looked at 9 houses in Redwood City for $1.2M, and all of them are crap, then I see a $1.25M home in Menlo Park that is _comparatively_ very nice, me and 2 or or more others bid on that, perhaps even a small amount over (say $1.28M). I think this is the Spring Bump Realtors(tm) will crow about, even while ignoring the crash going on around them. This is also a sign of a soft landing for Menlo Park.

*Note, I'm not looking in Menlo Park, just extrapolating recent Marin experiences to the Peninsula (and I used to own in Redwood City).

Scott,

October has been the host to several crashes (while epic) also sporadic. Just about every April sucks. Tax time, etc. Then it's, "sell in May and stay away" the summer doldrums.