patrick.net

Goober,
The middle class already are. It scares me actually. My folks, who live in Knoxville tell me stories every time I call. Knoxville for the entire time I lived in the state was a sleepy, sort of 1930's time capsule where nobody went downtown, or really cared about the city. In the year since I have been, several companies have been building large luxory condos, revitalizing the downtown area, and building more buildings. The occupancy rate is now higher than it was in 1937. With it are coming higher prices. It is getting more common to see homes and places around knoxville go for 300+k, which might sound like peanuts to Californians, but pricey for the locals. I know I'm blatently going against my own anti- NIMBYism, but I don't want any more of these people- the kind of people who jack prices- moving to the south. If they dirtied their own water, then they can just sit in it and not dirty ours.

To me the whole housing boom has seemingly redefined the terms middle class, upper class, and lower class several times over. Middle class to me means you comfortable own a home, 2 cars, a decent yard, and have access to decent public institutions like good public schools, parks, and so forth. I think people in the Bay Area misinterpret upper class for what the former definition of middle class meant. Lawyers, Doctors, and engineers now live in medium sized homes which were former homes of the working poor and lower middle class. Perfect example is when I ride my bicycle to the store and pass by a number of the more recent homes that sold in the past few years. You'll see a 2 bedroom, single story, plain-jane home with a new bimmer parked out front. How ironic. As a person impossibly priced out of the market making an above middle class wage, I can't help but feel that the people who own a home- any home at all, must be loaded.
The ideal ending to this fiasco would be a return to normalcy, where ordinary people- interesting people like plumbers, shoe salesmen, artists, writers, weird people, and so forth can just as easily afford to live next door to all the lawyers and upper execs. This area is turning into a place that has the feeling of stiff starched shirt collars- All lilly white and squeaky clean with the people that made the area what it is leaving the picture with throngs of rich people who play make-believe in the little towns they are taking over.

Ps,
sorry about the lawyer statement. What I meant to say was that as a given, lawyers make bank compared to people like me, hence if the prices are too high for anyone not making lawyer level salaries, then california would turn into a place where only lawyers and execs live. I wouldn't want to live in an area that only had plumbers either. Same thing. Guess I meant to clarify the topic a bit more above by making the statement that as of now, Lawyers can now only afford former factory worker and school teacher dwellings, hence it would be nice if that equation was reversed and the folks those homes were built for could afford them once again. sorry bout' that!

nomadtoons,
Your observation is true, from what I know. Here's an example. Our friends live in a traditionally very middle-class town in the BA. Wife is a lawyer, husband is in tech, so together make around probably 1.5 HaHa's. They bought a stucco box for 5HaHa's in 2003. Their neighbors: next door is a guy who works for a utility (field worker), a contractor with like 6 different ATV's he keeps parked up and down the street, and a bunch of really old people who clearly bought their homes when the development was built in the 50's. Of course, most of the neighbors are really nice and all, but my friends are the most recent purchasers on the street, and they honestly have very little in common with their neighbors socioeconomically. Their "mistake" was buying at a price they could manage with a full 20% down payment and an old-school fixed mortgage.
Imagine that!

Skibum,

I would add that this housing bubble squeezes young middle class people from both ends. You got both the rich yuppies and the migrant workers packed 20 to a house. Those are the only types who can buy the house at current BA prices.

Where are we heading? Where should we go?

I don't know. But I do know that you don't either. Here's a great example of a crucial global issue where the best and the brightest could be heading 180 degrees in the wrong direction:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/04/09/do0907.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/04/09/ixworld

DS,

I'll remember your expertise and call on it in the future.

Soooo... what's your social theory poison? :)

Garth Farkley,

I know that's from the Telegraph, but it's an op-ed piece of one man's opinion. If we're doing duels of op-eds, I can probably find ten times as many articles that say just the opposite. (and I have access to lexis-nexis, so it's hella easier to do) Point me towards something a bit more peer reviewed if you want me to follow your train of thought.

Actually, I'm gonna skip all that and say Day After Tomorrow said giant cyclones of incredibly cold temperatures are coming in from the upper atmosphere, leading to a new ice age. That's totally gonna happen! I saw pictures! of! Randy Quaid! and Jake Gyllenhaal! and Ian Holmes! and a bunch of frozen people!

I think you guys might enjoy this ad report card on the Century 21 nagging wife ad.

http://www.slate.com/id/2139572/

Astrid,

I'm not taking up the cudgel against Kyoto. I know that I don't understand our climate. Though not completely ignorant, I'm hardly well read. I just can't help but suspect that many loud activists know even less than I do. I certainly won't look to Hollywood for guidance.

Yes, Lexis-Nexis is cool. However:

You must not decide an issue by the simple process of counting the number of witnesses who have testified on the opposing sides. The final test is not in the relative number of witnesses, but in the convincing force of the evidence.

CALJIC 2.22 WEIGHING CONFLICTING TESTIMONY

I've put a copy of the outrageously offensive Century 21 ad on my blog, you can view or download it here.

This thing makes my skin crawl. It is just so wrong on so many levels. At long last, has this industry absolutely no sense of decency?

I know I wouldn't want to live in a neighborhood of nothing but lawyers. :)

Anyway, the thing of it is, in other areas of the country there isn't as much stratification. In Chicago, where I grew up, a blue collar family could live in the best neighborhood in town if they really, really wanted to.

For example, Wilmette, IL, a very rich neighborhood with an average family income north of $100k per Wikipedia, has the best schools in the Chicago area, bar none. Donald Rumsfeld and Rahm Emanuel both grew up there, as did a whole host of other famous Chicagoans.

A realtor.com search reveals that a 2BR condo can be had in Wilmette for only $150k.

Virtually any working-class Chicagoan could afford to live in Wilmette if they really, really wanted to. Like a bus driver married to a grocery store cashier -- these people really could do it. They could send their kids to the same schools as the rich and famous.

This almost never actually happens. Chicagoans tend to segregate themselves and simply won't move to an unfamillar area. And residents of Wilmette would be awfully frosty to any bus driver who actually did move into their community. And of course, if every bus driver in town started moving there, the condo prices would quickly skyrocket out ot reach. Moreover, most people would rather live in a house than a condo. But it could be done. If someone wanted to make those sacrifices, they could actually achieve that goal.

In CA, OTOH, it's not possible. There is no $150k house in Montecito or Beverly Hills. No bus driver can afford to send his kids to an expensive private school like SoCal's Harvard Westlake. Even if he gets a second job or whatever -- it's not going to happen.

In this way, the housing bubble is adversely affecting social mobility.

I don't know if this is what Nomadtoons was getting at, but I did understand his post to be alluding to it.

Proof that change is underway in a big way is reading the R and R on the Asheville Craigslist forum. It seems like every other post there is from someone in california asking what it's like there because they want to move to North Carolina. Read the replies from the locals and there is a fear of californians because as my mom says, california real estate is on the national news nightly, and many in the SE are glad they aren't in that boat. But if Californians bring the problems to them , what will happen? I never thought it would be possible to that Californians would migrate away in large numbers, but reading some of these posts makes me wonder if that could very well be the case.

Joe,
What's interesting to me is that there is a growing lack of people with trade skills. 30 years of mom and dad saying lil' Jr had to go to college has virtually put an end to people- younger people- thinking of becoming a mechanic or electrician. I work on all my own cars, with 2 of them being modern complete with electronic emmision and engine management systems that requires several books that I must read heavily anytime there is a problem. I'm impressed with how quickly professional mechanics can repair a complex problem in 30 minutes while it would take me all day. You have to go get your certification just to work at any shop, and it takes up to 5 years.
These guys can make 55-75k a year too, plus they can easily move upward in their trade. I've thought about this over and over, as I see the throngs of office drones with little chance of gaining that much of a salary increase or promotion, many making the same or less as that mechanic.
The idea that the mechanic, plumber, salesman, electrician, and contractor is uneducated is flawed. I seriously doubt Bob the Lawyer or Jim the Executive could change the oil on their 70k BMW or replace a faucet.
The problem we face now is that EVERYONE went to college. College is the modern day equivelant to High school of the 50's. If you went to college, so what- so did everyone else, and they learned all the same crap, from the same books. Thus everyone is level and hence there's no real demand for office drones unless you're just absolutly stellar. I think the next wave will be that EVRYONE will become lawyers. Yay. We can all sue each other for a living.

Garth Farkley,

Yep, anti-globalisation/greenpeace activists do come off like the PETA of labor/climate change/nuclear non-proliferation.

I haven't made a serious study of the issue ( notice how I used a movie as my major piece of supporting evidence? :P ). However, from what I read, evidence of global warming are quite a bit more established than that it doesn't exist.

That's also what my eyes tell me. I have a great love of lofty snowy mountains and counts reading mountaineering history as one of my hobbies. I can tell you that current pictures of these mountains often show substantially fewer snow fields and glacier than ones taken just decades earlier. There's now almost no snow on Mt. Kilimanjaro. These are glaciers and snow fields that have been around since at least the end of the little ice age, and in higher latitudes glaciers, for tens of thousands of years.

Given the complex nature of climate systems, we still have no concrete way to model the changes that these melting snowcaps will have. At the very least, a lot of people who used to depend on snow melt for irrigation will soon be unable to live off their land. This is a major concern for everybody, and the current administration's denial of any and all ecology related problems makes me sick.

Nomadtoons2,

I know a couple instances where people either finished college and then went to trade school or dropped out of college and went to trade school. It still happens. I do wish fewer people are pushed into law school though, I find law school is just as capable of muddling minds as clearing them up.

I think of lawyers to law as stockbrokers to stock. Take what you will out of that analogy.

Nomadtoons-

I agree. But I still think everyone should go to college. Education is enriching. It makes life more interesting. We all benefit from having a well-educated, well-informed populace.

I wonder how long it will take before college educated people start joining the trades after they graduate.

This is already happening in several fields. Lots of formerly blue-collar jobs now require a college degree. Take nurses, for example. When my mom became a nurse, she went to nursing school, not college. Today most nurses have bachelor's degrees; my mom had to go back to school to get hers and actually graduated from college the same year I did. Or consider police officers. 30 years ago, rookie police officers were almost never college graduates. A lot of people got their degrees after joining the force, but virtually no one had already gone to college when they signed up. Today, on the other hand, this is quite common. A lot of clerical jobs are the same way. So are sales positions for stuff like insurance; a lot of insurnace salesman have bachelor's degrees these days; heck, mine has an MBA.

This hasn't started happening in the trades yet so far as I can see, but it probably will.

Maybe one answer is a "college degree" that is really a trade school certificate. A friend of mine got one of these. He got a 4-year "engineering" degree in some kind of "technology." He is a surveyor, that is what he was trained to do. But he also has a 4-year college degree from an accredited state university. In addition to his surveying classes, he had to take Psych 101, English Lit, and all of the rest of your undergrad courses.

The reason why I want everyone to go to college is becuase I think that guys ike you and me would get screwed if the rules were changed. I grew up in a lower-middle-class community, but my high school offered a full college prep cirriculum, AP courses, the whole nine yards. If it hadn't, and the emphasis had been on metal shop, etc., I might not have been able to go to college. If college for everyone were de-emphasized, the kids in blue collar communities would get stuck going to blue collar high schools and would be unable to get out, even if they were really smart. And the ones who are smart but need help, like a little special ed? They'd be totally screwed. My buddy is a guy like that. He is a nuclear physicist, used to work at Lawrence Livermore, but he is also dyslexic. He was only able to get out becuase his parents sent him to Catholic school. If he'd had to go to the local blue collar public school, he'd probably be working as a truck driver today.

Personally, I'm trying to learn some of those blue-collar skills, just becuase I think they are good to have. For example, although my dad drove a cab, he knew nothing about cars. So I always change my own oil, etc., buy the factory service manual, etc., just so that I can know a little bit. I don't want to feel totally inadequate about this stuff! :)

Astrid,
I don't have problems with lawyers, as many that I know are fairly generous, honest people. It's the bad eggs- the ones that will take any case and lie to win even if it is way, way obvious that their client is guilty as hell that bothers me. It's more their lifestyle that I don't associate with.Perhaps I'll be more broad and just include all wealthy people to be fair since as mentioned, many lawyers I've met are decent people. The Audis, Mercedes, Lattes', Euro-fetishism, and staying away from places like Wal-mart and payless shoes that bothers me. Of course I wouldn't expect Lawyers to find joy in buying WD40 in bulk at Costco or going to rodeos either, so the feelings are probably mutual. In the end, it all comes back to money. If you make a LOT of money, then you will spend the maxiumum you can without going into debt and therfore surround yourself in an enviroment that insulates you from people in a lower bracket. The same is true with lower income people, so perhaps I'm just stating the obvious.
I grew up from humble means and working in a hardware store selling overpriced crap to wealthy people made me not have what you could call a soft spot for these kinds of people who seem to all act the same. Then again I suppose they thought people like me are "all the same" as well.
Call me immature, but that's just the way I feel. In the bay area I feel a lot of this wealth from RE was undeserved so the harder the fall the better.

Joe,
Yup, it's good to know how to fix things for yourself. For example, last year my truck started stalling out. The dealer said it was a faulty TP sensor. I did the research, replaced it myself for $75 and 3 hours on a Saturday. The dealer would have charged me over $500 for the same service. Those small things add up.

ps,
I'm trying to be somewhat PC, which for me is very difficult, hence the hilarity of my posts and being more restrained these days!

Skibum,
I just seems weird to me that when I get off the plane to see my folks, the car cross section is comprised of Toyotas, Nissans, Fords, Chevy's, and the occasional Bimmer, etc. But here in the Bay, I cross the bridge in the morning in a virtual sea of mini coopers, BMW's, Mercedes, and Porcshes. You see so many of them that they just blend in. What's more is that so many of them are brand spanking new too, as in the nice convertible Mercedes ( not sure of the model No.) that sell for 80-100k. I realize that there are droves of fat cats here, but seriously- where in the hell does all that money come from? If people like to play keeping up with the jonses here, then why place yourself at signifigant risk with a 70k car? that seems a bit extreme.

nomadtoons2,

Guilty as charged, though I find Honda/Acuras to be nicer. Audis are really nice. I will avoid Wal-mart because of their poor labor practices and the shitty way they treat their suppliers. I do find that some high income professionals have very poor financial planning sense. Or else, their idea of value is completely different from mine.

Lawyers and other professionals do love their leased luxury cars, because of the tax breaks involved and because it makes them look "professional."

Skibum,

Okay, I can buy leasing and hiring an accountant as time saving. But I also find a lot of just plain conspicuous consumption. Though I find this to be much more the case in China than in this country.

The other problem with the time is money argument is that these people often miscalculate the actual value of time after taxes transaction costs. More often than not, it does end up as justification for spending more than necessary.

The backlash is coming in the form of things like the “slow food” movement. Time is money is more true than you think.

But food is different, because we live to eat.

Nomadtoons,

Well, you've also got to admit that sometimes expensive stuff is just plain nicer than cheap stuff. For example, I wore shoes from Payless and KMart for years. Now I wear work shoes that are really expensive, they cost around $250 per pair. Why? Becuase they fit better and last longer than the cheap shoes. Expensive shoes actually come in all the sizes, for one thing. Addidas does not offer a 7 1/2 EEE, for instnace, but Allen-Edmonds does. If I wanted to get a shoe that was wide enough, I used to have to buy a 9 and wear something that was almost two sizes too long. Moreover, the nice shoes last longer than the cheap ones. Believe it or not, they last five or six times as long as the $100 shoes, so the $250 shoes are actually much, much cheaper in the long run. And during all that time, they don't give you blisters and look a lot nicer. The idea of buying $250 shoes probably sounds crazy to my HS classmates, but in this case they really should go out and buy them too. They are cheaper in the long run.

And sometimes nice stuff is just plain nice. It may not be a good value, like the shoes, but it's still very nice. Now, you and I know that there is no real difference between a BMW 330i and a Kia Optima. Both will get you to work, and the Kia may actually even be a little more reliable these days. But a BMW is one hell of a lot nicer to drive. It's not just an image thing. The suspension is tuned differently, the steering is about a thousand times more responsive, there is more pickup, and the interior is a hell of a lot nicer. Is it worth an additional $20,000? Maybe not to you. But a BMW is nicer than a Kia, no question about it, no ambiguity. You may not value a BMW, but the people who do really are getting a nicer car for the extra money, they are not senselessly throwing it away.

Finally, nice stuff is just more enjoyable sometimes. I am trying to get into shape and recently bought a mountain bike. It cost $1,200 and was worth every penny. (The housing bubble gives us the perverse freedom to waste money on frivilous things like this.) It weighs about half as much as a Wal-Mart bike and is a whole lot tougher as well. I never have to hesitate before riding down a steep hill, becuase I know the bike will not let me down. About a month ago I did 70 miles in one day. It would have been possible to do this on a Wal-Mart bike, but not nearly as easy. In this case, a more expensive bike really is more enjoyable. Someone who is not a car person might not notice the difference between a BMW and a Kia, but I guarantee that everyone would like my bike better than a Wal-Mart bike, the experience is just plain better on the nice bike, you can go faster and do more.

"That’ why I spend hours reading this blog…"

LOL, I think of it as group therapy. (did I just give the webmaster a reason to start charging us?)

LOL, I think of it as group therapy.

Some may think that this is a support group for jealous, bitter, gold-hoarding renters though. :)

Skibum-

Re: Kia. LOL!

The thing about trade schools that worries me is that I know they would break down along class lines. The children of doctors and lawyers (maybe we need to come up with new professions to serve as synonyms for the wealthy -- mortgage brokers and flippers?) will never get funnled into becoming plumbers, while conversely the children of plumbers will seldom get funnled into becoming doctors and lawyers. There would be a few tokens, but 99% of the kids born in a certain area would never be able to escape. I guarantee this would happen.

There would be a few tokens, but 99% of the kids born in a certain area would never be able to escape. I guarantee this would happen.

It is all in the stars. They will thrive if they are meant to.

SFWoman, Newsfreak-

I know, I know, but I am telling you, the odds are against it. There are always a few exceptions to every rule. BTW, SFWoman, I too know a SF family with a son who became a cop -- we probably are talking about the same people.

The deck is going to be stacked against the poor kids under that sort of system. I went to a public high school that never, ever sent kids to Ivy League schools. There are public high schools that send dozens of kids to Ivy League schools each and every year.

It is hard enough for kids to buck the system these days without being sent to a "vocational" school. If you start tracking kids at an early age like that, you are going to stack the deck against them even more. "Separate" is not "equal," there are no two ways about it. In theory I have no problem with what you are saying but in practice I know it would not work.

@Joe Schmoe as a fellow member of the duck feet society, (12 EEEE) I second your opinion of Allen Edmonds, plus they resole the shoes for $100.00 Only pair of dress shoes I've ever had that fit. MMMM fit.

you have it backwards.. We don’t live to eat, we eat to live. We live to procreate. Darwinism and all (we’re just a bunch of animals, after all…)

True, we eat to live, but just to eat more. :)

What Darwinism? Don't you believe in creationism?

Food should feed the soul as well as the body.

Exactly.

Scott,
I'm not a fan of Gary Danko's - Chez Panisse still does it best in my book. It is true, however, that there's a distinct foodie-cultism in the BA that doesn't exist in most other places.

Joe,
To me I don't think there are many things, both nice or crappy that are built well enough for my tastes. For example, the table fan in my kitchen is from the 30's. It has a base made of cast iron. The motor has replaceable brushes and bearings. The cord is heavy duty, the knob is bakelite, and it still works like new. Cost to me: $5 at a yard sale. My car, a 1955 Mercury has 340k on the speedometer, has a gigantic V8 that makes it accelerate like a bat out of hell, and I can fix anything on it in less than 30 minutes and 50 bucks. It's now 51 years old and I recently restored it, so perhaps it'll go another 50.I can guarantee that this car gets way, way more attention and smiles than any 70k Bimmer. All the furniture I own is from the turn of the century, picked up off the street, flea markets, and so forth. Most of the stuff I see- even the expensive stuff, like a $400 coffee looks like crap to me. It won't be around in 10 years either.
But.. I'll stop and be dead honest. If someone walked over and gave me a few mil, would I buy that Cadillac STS sedan with the nice 400HP turbo charged engine, bose stereo system, magnetically controlled suspension system? Probably.
I'm in emergency saving mode as we speak. I could easily buy a fully loaded toyota truck with all the trimmins', or buy some really nice clothes. I could also probably really stretch for a 6 month world tour. But I don't because I'm a married guy caught in the middle of a dilemena where the future isn't looking that great due to our inability to afford basic ameneties like housing. If things were better, I might indulge in some of those nice things.

Besides I’ve been to expensive restaurants (mostly because my parents like those places, so when they come visit SF they go out alot), and most are disappointing, including Gary Danko’s — I don’t know how you guys can rave on about that one so much.

I have yet to try Gary Danko's. What is wrong with it?

Simple foods are also soul-feeders. A perfect tomato with some crunchy Malden salt sprinkled on top? A bowl of ripe raspberries? A tart, crisp apple and a wedge of sharp cheddar cheese? Perfect guacamole? A boiled lobster, some corn and boiled potatoes and melted butter (leave the white bits in the butter, please!)?

Yum! Boiled lobster. I now crave a 3-pound Maine lobster.

I’m not a fan of Gary Danko’s - Chez Panisse still does it best in my book. It is true, however, that there’s a distinct foodie-cultism in the BA that doesn’t exist in most other places.

My global favorite is currently Kaygetsu in Menlo Park. Their Japanese cuisine is very well executed. Their sashimi is fresh and flavorful.

After 7 courses you will still be refreshed.

A boiled lobster, some corn and boiled potatoes and melted butter (leave the white bits in the butter, please!)?

Butter? Somehow I do not usually like too much butter. If I want a heart-healthy mean I go for olive oil. If not I want lard!

Lard tastes so good. :)

Peter P,
I haven't been there - definitely will give it a look-see. That's the one in Sharon Park, eh? I've heard really good things about it. I can actually go there for lunch from work with a 5min drive, if I can ever find the time.