patrick.net

hate to rent,

I don't think you really can. You can talk about blood diamonds. You can talk about how much that money can grow into in 30 years. You can talk about the de Beers cartel and the retail mark up for diamond jewelry.

But really?

Just stay away from the one with stars in their eyes. A diamond ring is no biggie, but marrying a materialistic harpie is a lifetime of emasculation.

Thanks HARM. There's still quite a bit of work to do on it, but once we get this thing settled I hope to turn it into a more accessible web-page for the masses.

And yes, I tried to use HaHa as inspiration when setting the defaults. Hey HaHa, you only need about 156% appreciation in a condo over 7 years to justify purchasing a home on 1-HaHa salary with 1-HaHa downpayment.

Bap33 Says:

> so FAB,,,,, what does that say about guys like me that lower their cars???

Guys that lower the car they drive every day usually fall in to a few different groups (guys that lower their M3s or GT3s with H&R coilovers don’t drive them every day) :

Lowered older American car = Hispanic Guy

Lowered late model car = Asian kid (or younger white kid who saw Fast and Furious too many times)

Lowered Mini Truck = White guy who worships Eminem

Lowered Full Size Truck = Older White or Hispanic guy who didn’t go to college (90% chance that a the truck has either a Raider or Harley sticker)

Ughh, good question. Get them while they're young and don't want to be tied up. Be reasonable generous to them. Be a good listener. At least hold out the option for more...

Lots of girls are lonely too. You just need to figure a way to tell them that it's better have a good time and have a trusted friend, until they find "the one."

skibum,

"I’m sure you received an excellent public education, but one andecdote doesn’t refute overwhelming data. We’re in deep doo-doo."

No, I was just giving my personal opinion. My personal experience is with mainly with other people who also received excellent public school educations. I guess I can't make a judgment on the matter so I'll go with your assessment.

Regarding the literacy issue of this country, or this state, here's a real story for you.

I walked into a Post Office the other day to ship off some packages and replenish my stamp stock. The postal worker at the counter asked me which stamps I would like to get, I said, the Ben Franklin collection would be nice. He was like, huh? Franklin What?

Judging from his accent, he was either born in the US or came here very early in life. I don't know what the school teaches these days.

Thanks HARM. There’s still quite a bit of work to do on it, but once we get this thing settled I hope to turn it into a more accessible web-page for the masses.

Randy,

I played around with the Bubblizer a little, and noticed a couple of small bugs:
1. You can't get an IAR figure if you hold property longer than 15 years (shows as "#DIV/0")
2. The columns on the right don't self adjust to show numbers greater than column width (shows "#######")
3. It's possible to enter a holding period longer than the mortgage itself (which produces a bunch of "#NUM!" errors).
4. The data on left only allows you to go up to year 30 (no 40 or 50-yr mortgages).

Howdy fellow bubble-heads; I have not posted in quite some time mainly because I've been really focusing on my CFA studies and consequently gave up my blog addiction for quite some time. And also it is quite clear that the housing bubble is on the way down, so not much to debate anymore!

Quick observation for you all that prompted my stop back: I checked the San Francisco MLS today, screened for condos under $350K in all SF Districts. There are 17 of them out there; last time I checked 2 months ago there were only 3. SF is still not budging much at all on prices but inventory is building; I'm not surprised that SF will be the last city in CA to take the hit as we are the strongest economically (yes it is true even though that is the favorite RE bull statistic).

And finaly, I'm sure pretty much everyone noticed the 30-year bond top 5% over the past few days, 10-year not far behind! With the interest rates further eroding affordability we are almost fresh out of buyers that can afford anything here in the Bay Area.

HARM,

Mind copy/pasting this to my blog for the record. I'll incorporate into the next rev.

The intent is only to allow for 30 year mortgages and 30 year holding periods, as it would require a two-step model to handle the "after the home's paid off" period.

Anyway, no one should ever get 40 or 50 year mortgages, so I don't want to encourage this.

(Anyways, you'll see the carrying costs of financing make it such that you should never carry an expensive home for very long on financing anyway. They are actually more affordable with shorter mortgages, which makes sense if you really think about it all from a high level and account for interest costs and alternative uses of those funds).

"the right one is suppose to be like"

First of all, I'm all of 25, so take all this with a big lump of salt.

Things to watch for unless you become fabulously wealthy and just want a trophy wife...or want to become a trophy husband.

Remember that a spouse is a life partner. You guys need to be able to communicate with each other, or at least figure out a pecking order so one person isn't constantly questioning the other person's decisions.

I'd say go with someone who is not materialistic, especially in their desire to have things just so. Apparently some materialistic wives drive their husbands to perform better...I'd say it's not worth the stress.

Get married because you love each other and are amazingly happy to be in each other's presence. Must have connections in your heads or your heart. Good sex is great, but don't trap yourself into a marriage where sex is the only thing that works.

Peter P,

No, a CRX is a small 2 seater from the late 80s/early 90s.

See this link

http://kumo.swcp.com/synth/crx/

I support adult supervision of teenagers. They can start driving by themselves when they turn 20.

HARM,
Mind copy/pasting this to my blog for the record. I’ll incorporate into the next rev.

Done. Btw, I wouldn't worry about your spreadsheet "encouraging" anyone to get a 40 or 50-year mortgage. In fact, by displaying the numbers, you'd actually be showing them quantitatively HOW BAD they really are vs. traditional 30 or 15-years.

Welcome back, San Francisco RENTER!

I'm for the compulsory state taking of RVs from old people.

astrid Says:

“hate to rent, Hmm, my random advice on looking for a girl… I don’t know, just fool around and don’t be in a hurry to get tied down to a girl, until you’re absolutely sure she’s right for you. You got at least 15 more years and you’ll probably be more desirable with time.”

More advice to hate to rent, do NOT talk about real estate with women, actually you are better off talking as little as possible and just letting her talk (there are many surveys that say women like talking more than we like sex)…

I support adult supervision of teenagers. They can start driving by themselves when they turn 20.

Sounds fair... actually, teenagers are the most dangerous drivers when friends are also in the car. Not many people can endure peer pressure like myself.

the details of the checklist might be different this time, but the overall big picture is similar:

don't folks remember what happened during early 1990's? I knew folks who felt they were fortunate to sell at a loss, even pay down their loans in order to sell at a loss.

It wasn't really all that long ago.

What about re-testing driving skills of folks above a certain age (70?) and revoking the licenses of those who fail?

Sounds good too... although an automated highway would be the ideal solution. Driving is too dangerous and boring for humans.

No, a CRX is a small 2 seater from the late 80s/early 90s.

OMG!

My dream car is also a Japanese car though: :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Century

"there are many surveys that say women like talking more than we like sex"

I don't know, I think that works for only so long. I'm in the stage of my relationship when I'm desperately trying to get my boyfriend to bring up something to talk about. I will even ask him about rotisserie baseball just to get him to have a conversation together.

The other negative of that approach is that women start projecting their fantasy vision of you. And you don't build communication skills you need for a long term relationship.

Peter P,

Isn't that a Japanese high government official car? Snooze.

I'll take any equivalent German offering first. :)

"What about people who “drive” a Yamaha SR-500 (kickstart single cylinder motorcycle) with a loud pipe"

Don't worry, they'll be dead soon enough.

Isn’t that a Japanese high government official car? Snooze.

Something like that, but it is also populat among Japanese businessmen and mafia bosses.

I’ll take any equivalent German offering first.

I guess it is comparable to S500 and A8L. But nothing is as conservative as the Century. Sometimes I fantasize being driven in one to eat sushi. :)

hate to rent,

From my narrow survey of my friends, I'd say the chance of finding you dream woman will get better if you look amongst smart engineer and scientist types. It will probably be quite poor (though by no means impossible) if you look amongst art history majors and comparative literature majors.

What about a federal standard age of ascension for all "adult" things, which is universal. The same age for smoking, drinking, getting married, driving, voting, signing a contract, etc.

I have a problem with limiting driving to 20 but saying you can be drafted at 18. Same with drinking. It is hypocritical. You are expected to be responsible enough to defend your country but not drive to the 7-11 for a beer doesn't sit right with me. Never has.

Randy H,

I happen to think it's a terrible idea to let kids decide the rest of their lives (with 4 year army commitments) at 18. I'm all for raising the age for all adult activities (and dropping the drinking age to 20 too).

I have a problem with limiting driving to 20 but saying you can be drafted at 18. Same with drinking. It is hypocritical. You are expected to be responsible enough to defend your country but not drive to the 7-11 for a beer doesn’t sit right with me. Never has.

The problem is that teenagers lack structure and discipline. Somehow I have a feeling that teaching the concept of religion and requiring school uniforms will help.

We should encourage intellectual freedom, not behavioral freedom.

Though drafting is a little different. In that case, the kid has no choice but to be drafted.

Also, presumably a draft would only come up in times of national emergency, so the age should be determined by the nature of emergency. This is a case of sacrifice on behalf of the government, not a right or privilege like driving.

hate to rent,

Sorry to tell you this. But hotness, personality, sanity. Pick two of the three. Occasionally you can strike the trifecta jackpot, but know that the odds are against you.

Peter P said The problem is that teenagers lack structure and discipline. Somehow I have a feeling that teaching the concept of religion and requiring school uniforms will help.
I agree with you Peter. The concept of depth and a higher power would certainly help.

actually, the right one will enjoy skydiving and bungee jump

Which also means difficulties in obtaining a life insurance policy.

skydiving and bungee jumps aren't that dangerous.

For really dangerous you can't beat underwater cave exploration and BASE jumping.

The problem is that teenagers lack structure and discipline. Somehow I have a feeling that teaching the concept of religion and requiring school uniforms will help.

I agree on structure and discipline, and mostly on uniforms. I disagree on religion unless it's taught as religious theory, ethics and culture, not as dogma. I'd rather see more of a philosophy of ethics taught from all perspectives which would include religious perspectives, but also include non-religious perspectives. It would do everyone well to learn that those with differing belief systems aren't automatically the enemy. Of course, first we'd have to teach this to the parents and teachers.

The concept of depth and a higher power would certainly help.

Absolutely. Never let a teenager believe that he is invincible. I am not ver religious but I have to say that understaning the concept of a higher being is essential.

Linda,

Yeah, religion might help. But what happens if I'm atheist. And I am.

Japanese mafia (yakuza) all ride on white, Mercedez S class. Remember, white, S class, if you run into one of those in Japan, bow and keep low.

I disagree on religion unless it’s taught as religious theory, ethics and culture, not as dogma.

Of course. Students should be presented with various religious concepts. I am not against preaching but religion should not be forced upon the people.

I’d rather see more of a philosophy of ethics taught from all perspectives which would include religious perspectives, but also include non-religious perspectives.

It is a good idea too. I agree.