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Housing Bubble Pre-Flight Checklist


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2006 Apr 10, 7:44am   29,339 views  313 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

1. Congress enacts/President signs new Tax Code into law (1997) subsidizing real estate speculation? Check.

2. Cabal of arrogant Fed bankers/Washington politicians/Brokerage firms ignore (or actively encourage) massive Dot.com stock bubble? Check.

3. Aforementioned stock bubble imploding in Fed's/Pol's faces (2000)? Check.

4. Extreme Fed/Pol fear of damage to the rest of the economy by ruptured stock bubble and willingness to flood economy with ultra-cheap credit (to inflate new bubble)? Check.

5. Massive GSEs market intervention, allowing private mortgage lenders to shift default risk from themselves onto taxpayers, FCBs & institutional investors (using the magic of MBS/CMOs)? Check

6. Complete erosion of lending standards, thanks to Fed's easy credit + GSE's MBS/CMO mortgage risk transfer? Check.

7. Cabal of arrogant Realt-whores enforcing monopoly MLS, gaming the numbers and lobbying for federal protection? Check.

8. Public's unshakable faith in the impregnability of real estate ("it never goes down")? Check.

9. Public's complete lack of historical memory, understanding of credit bubbles, the Fed/GSEs, business cycles, etc.? Check.

10. China/Japan underwriting much of our toxic MBS/CMO debt, while secretly hoping we fall on our asses? Check.

11. International carry-trade spawning RE bubbles all over the globe, thanks to ultra-cheap $USD ? Check.

HOUSING BUBBLE, YOU ARE CLEARED FOR TAXI

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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57   B.A.C.A.H.   2006 Apr 10, 3:01pm  

the details of the checklist might be different this time, but the overall big picture is similar:

don't folks remember what happened during early 1990's? I knew folks who felt they were fortunate to sell at a loss, even pay down their loans in order to sell at a loss.

It wasn't really all that long ago.

58   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:02pm  

What about re-testing driving skills of folks above a certain age (70?) and revoking the licenses of those who fail?

Sounds good too... although an automated highway would be the ideal solution. Driving is too dangerous and boring for humans.

59   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:03pm  

No, a CRX is a small 2 seater from the late 80s/early 90s.

OMG!

My dream car is also a Japanese car though: :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Century

60   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:07pm  

"there are many surveys that say women like talking more than we like sex"

I don't know, I think that works for only so long. I'm in the stage of my relationship when I'm desperately trying to get my boyfriend to bring up something to talk about. I will even ask him about rotisserie baseball just to get him to have a conversation together.

61   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:09pm  

The other negative of that approach is that women start projecting their fantasy vision of you. And you don't build communication skills you need for a long term relationship.

62   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:11pm  

Peter P,

Isn't that a Japanese high government official car? Snooze.

I'll take any equivalent German offering first. :)

63   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:16pm  

"What about people who “drive” a Yamaha SR-500 (kickstart single cylinder motorcycle) with a loud pipe"

Don't worry, they'll be dead soon enough.

64   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:17pm  

Isn’t that a Japanese high government official car? Snooze.

Something like that, but it is also populat among Japanese businessmen and mafia bosses.

I’ll take any equivalent German offering first.

I guess it is comparable to S500 and A8L. But nothing is as conservative as the Century. Sometimes I fantasize being driven in one to eat sushi. :)

65   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:18pm  

hate to rent,

From my narrow survey of my friends, I'd say the chance of finding you dream woman will get better if you look amongst smart engineer and scientist types. It will probably be quite poor (though by no means impossible) if you look amongst art history majors and comparative literature majors.

66   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 3:18pm  

What about a federal standard age of ascension for all "adult" things, which is universal. The same age for smoking, drinking, getting married, driving, voting, signing a contract, etc.

I have a problem with limiting driving to 20 but saying you can be drafted at 18. Same with drinking. It is hypocritical. You are expected to be responsible enough to defend your country but not drive to the 7-11 for a beer doesn't sit right with me. Never has.

67   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:20pm  

Randy H,

I happen to think it's a terrible idea to let kids decide the rest of their lives (with 4 year army commitments) at 18. I'm all for raising the age for all adult activities (and dropping the drinking age to 20 too).

68   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:23pm  

I have a problem with limiting driving to 20 but saying you can be drafted at 18. Same with drinking. It is hypocritical. You are expected to be responsible enough to defend your country but not drive to the 7-11 for a beer doesn’t sit right with me. Never has.

The problem is that teenagers lack structure and discipline. Somehow I have a feeling that teaching the concept of religion and requiring school uniforms will help.

69   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:23pm  

We should encourage intellectual freedom, not behavioral freedom.

70   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:24pm  

Though drafting is a little different. In that case, the kid has no choice but to be drafted.

Also, presumably a draft would only come up in times of national emergency, so the age should be determined by the nature of emergency. This is a case of sacrifice on behalf of the government, not a right or privilege like driving.

71   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:26pm  

hate to rent,

Sorry to tell you this. But hotness, personality, sanity. Pick two of the three. Occasionally you can strike the trifecta jackpot, but know that the odds are against you.

72   LILLL   2006 Apr 10, 3:27pm  

Peter P said The problem is that teenagers lack structure and discipline. Somehow I have a feeling that teaching the concept of religion and requiring school uniforms will help.
I agree with you Peter. The concept of depth and a higher power would certainly help.

73   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:27pm  

actually, the right one will enjoy skydiving and bungee jump

Which also means difficulties in obtaining a life insurance policy.

74   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:29pm  

skydiving and bungee jumps aren't that dangerous.

For really dangerous you can't beat underwater cave exploration and BASE jumping.

75   Randy H   2006 Apr 10, 3:30pm  

The problem is that teenagers lack structure and discipline. Somehow I have a feeling that teaching the concept of religion and requiring school uniforms will help.

I agree on structure and discipline, and mostly on uniforms. I disagree on religion unless it's taught as religious theory, ethics and culture, not as dogma. I'd rather see more of a philosophy of ethics taught from all perspectives which would include religious perspectives, but also include non-religious perspectives. It would do everyone well to learn that those with differing belief systems aren't automatically the enemy. Of course, first we'd have to teach this to the parents and teachers.

76   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:30pm  

The concept of depth and a higher power would certainly help.

Absolutely. Never let a teenager believe that he is invincible. I am not ver religious but I have to say that understaning the concept of a higher being is essential.

77   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:30pm  

Linda,

Yeah, religion might help. But what happens if I'm atheist. And I am.

78   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:31pm  

Japanese mafia (yakuza) all ride on white, Mercedez S class. Remember, white, S class, if you run into one of those in Japan, bow and keep low.

79   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:32pm  

I disagree on religion unless it’s taught as religious theory, ethics and culture, not as dogma.

Of course. Students should be presented with various religious concepts. I am not against preaching but religion should not be forced upon the people.

I’d rather see more of a philosophy of ethics taught from all perspectives which would include religious perspectives, but also include non-religious perspectives.

It is a good idea too. I agree.

80   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:35pm  

hate to rent,

I tried to help you (with my earlier post), but the only near helpful thing that solicited was Different Sean's declaration that he was good looking and got an offer from a rich woman once.

81   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:35pm  

Japanese mafia (yakuza) all ride on white, Mercedez S class. Remember, white, S class, if you run into one of those in Japan, bow and keep low.

I heard that white Audi A8 is very popular amongst neo-nazis. Any truth?

82   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:35pm  

hate to rent,

I hope this isn't too nosy, but what part of Asia does your family come from?

83   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:36pm  

Why can't we have the good ole girl's school boy's school and school uniform? I went to a boy's school all the way including boarding school, it was a great experience, you don't get distracted too early this way. I didn't go on my first date until college, and never had a problem getting a date ever since. Of course you thought about girls 3 times an hour, but they weren't available on campus or dorm so you just needed to channel your extra energy into something more productive.

High school dating is overrated.

84   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:36pm  

Owneroccupier,

You're a gem of information about East Asia!

85   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:38pm  

Yeah, religion might help. But what happens if I’m atheist. And I am.

Atheism has a place in many religions. Buddhism is one of them.

86   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:38pm  

I went to a high school with a 4:1 female to male ratio (yeah, you guys totally got screwed) and most girls never dated.

87   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:40pm  

Peter P,

Took a Buddhism class in college. Got so sick of the logical inconsistency of the theory that I dropped out midway.

88   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:41pm  

Why can’t we have the good ole girl’s school boy’s school and school uniform?

Exactly. However, dating cannot be stopped. Willing participants will still find a way... after school. What needs to be taught is responsibility.

89   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:42pm  

hate to rent,

Can't give you any advice about Vietnamese dating scene. I had a pretty good friend who is Vietnamese, but she's not what you'd call a looker.

90   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:42pm  

Well, I went to a Catholic boy's school all the way till college. You do your bible studies and the school pretty much leaves you alone on everything else. Many classmates of mine, myself included, came out atheist. It is just a disciplinary thing, there are very strict codes of behavior, and in a way, necessary for kids.

However, the unintended side-effect is, some of my classmates became gay, not that there is anything wrong with it.

91   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:42pm  

Peter P,

If I have kids I will either home school them or pack them off to boarding school when they turn 12.

92   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:44pm  

Got so sick of the logical inconsistency of the theory that I dropped out midway.

I used to hate eastern philosophy because of the apparent logical inconsistency. My wife (then girlfriend) called me Spock and my college roommate called me Data. Now, I look at things rather differently. :)

93   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:45pm  

If I have kids I will either home school them or pack them off to boarding school when they turn 12.

Neither is cheap.

However, the unintended side-effect is, some of my classmates became gay, not that there is anything wrong with it.

Huh?

94   astrid   2006 Apr 10, 3:47pm  

"Neither is cheap."

I know, that's why I probably won't have kids.

95   Peter P   2006 Apr 10, 3:48pm  

I find that atheist are the type of people that are more likely do do the work of god. they are humanist.

True. Open-minded atheists with the sense of morality will serve humanity very well. Dogmatic atheists may not do much good.

96   OO   2006 Apr 10, 3:48pm  

Don't send your kid to boarding school too early. It is an entirely different beast from the usual school system.

Boarding school is like a mafia organization. The seniors bully the juniors, and since you live together in the same dorm (more beds per room compared to college), you end up being bullied 24 x7 until you become a senior yourself. Some boys may not take it so well and it may leave a scar with them in the future. Also, there is no privacy at all, not much space for self-development, because everyone spies on everyone. If you get along with your dorm mates, they will be your best friends ever throughout your life. If you don't get along with them, that will make your life a living hell.

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