patrick.net

I was speaking with a dad at the private school where my son goes. This dad is an amateur flipper who thinks he's 'all that'. When he heard we had sold and were living in a rental, he started trying to sell me one of his condos. Now, I've know this guy since our teens were in preschool together and I've never been a 'condo kind of girl'. I build too, but on a smaller, more conservative level than he. He was CONDESCENDING on me for renting and trying to sell me his freaking condo! And that was several months ago when the bubble was just a 'theory'. The AUDACITY. Yes, there ARE those greasy guys that NEED to fall off their high freakin horses. Schadenfreude......

Mr. Vincent,

Ha, this is a great illustration of how little realtors do. They couldn't even convince the owners to clean up the piles of paper for the pictures.

It's not that bad, and probably in an okay neighborhood. I'd say $200K seems about right, provided the seller legalizes the add on.

HARM,

Karma is way too complicated and not particularly fair (what's with this karmic payback in next life business, or the instrument of the karmic payback taking on bad karma business).

I do watch this bubble because I care about the overall economy. And the earlier this thing blows, the less the damage and the faster we get back onto producing useful stuff instead of paper profits.

I am of German descent so I'm loving learning a little German here.
My last name, as I was always told as a child means...
"babbling brook that flows from the brewery" :P
Now...maybe they just made the brewery part up.....
And...does it have to mean 'babbling'?
Isn't 'noisy' just as good?

_nod_ to Mr Vincent

Yes, there ARE those greasy guys that NEED to fall off their high freakin horses. Schadenfreude…

@Linda in LLL,

Yes, pain is a wonderful teacher. We must never get so caught up in savoring our delicious new Schadenfreude that we lose sight of the positive and therapuetic aspects of pain.

The flippers are about to get an education in what asset bubbles are and how they correct. This first-hand lesson will be far more valuable than any condo-flipping seminar or RE course they have ever taken. Hopefully many of them will end up the better for it, and will resolve never again to be flippers (or at the very least, not to take on dangerous risk without first researching the market).

We must all embrace pain as a valuable teacher. Class is now in session --better start taking notes. ;-)

HARM,

I am amazed by the number of foreclosures and pre-foreclosures listed for Los Gatos. I checked Claremont, home of the Hwang-Smiths, also very high.

Mr. Vincent
I got the kiss and you only got a nod! :)

Linda,

We must remember that desire breeds want and bad karma :P

Spring is in the air! It's 80 degrees in LA LA LAND and things are getting a little frisky around here!

Ray W,

No offense, but your girlfriend's email was the only one of the three I could follow.

Ray W and HARM,

I'd suggest you modify the email addresses in that posting, so they don't start to get spammed.

tannenbaum,

Well, Dublin is kinda ugly step sister looking...

Ray W,

No problem, and I didn't mean to offend, it was just kind of confusing. Your girlfriend's email was fine though, it really expressed her feelings well.

Don't worry, HARM or one of the other people with editing privilege will probably help you shortly. It's just one of the unfortunate facts of posting on public forums.

"Perhaps, but the freeway access is unbeatable and is RIGHT NEXT DOOR to the tonier cities of Pleasanton & San Ramon."

True enough. There are a lot of apartments in Pleasanton though. My boyfriend and I went apartment hunting and found that Pleasanton prices were no higher than Dublin prices. Also, if I had money, I'd rather live in Danville.

I do not believe in karma, strictly. There are no zero-sum games.

Give 'em hell Ray.

...continuing on my thought. I always thought the way to do affordable housing was to encourage builders to build reasonably nice 2 or 3 bedroom apartment in decent school districts.

I do not believe in karma, strictly. There are no zero-sum games.

Huh? They are all zero-sum games. :)

Peter P,

Do you have delete privilege?

Peter P,

Buddhists ought to be glad that they don't get audited. They report some crazy numbers (of lifetimes).

Ray,
Wow, at least you heard back from that guy. I've written to the Mayor of Alameda, several newspapers, and of course all the senators and the Govna' a few times, and nobody except one of the newspapers got back to me, and the person who emailed me from the paper was doing so because he too was pissed that a newspaper editor can't afford anything in town. I think most local politicians would rather just look the other way and stay out of it, which is probably wise because either stand they take will ultimatly put mud on their hands.

Ray W,

I gave you my take on affordable housing, what's your take on affordable house?

Huh? They are all zero-sum games. :)

Then again, I doubt even the Universe is a purely closed system. Not a zero-sum game. ;)

If the universe was a close karmic system, that means everytime we do something with good karma, someone else is forced to take on bad karma to balance...

I was involved in Belmont politics a few years ago, mostly regarding housing-related issues. I spent a lot of time working with a couple of city council members regarding development issues.

Here's what I came away with from my experience spending too much time interacting with the bowels of city government:

1. If you are reading this blog then you are too smart to be wasting time with your city government, unless you have a rare bunch of people running your town (unlikely), or you live in a city with a history of real politics (that is, the state and even national parties take an interest in getting candidates into office in your city).

2. Absent of the exceptions above, the people who rise to political office are those who are most recognizable. This tends to favor reatlors(tm), a very few local business people, and rarely a long-time activist resident.

3. Most of the people running the city have a good heart, but lack the experience, education, or practical knowledge to interpret the complex issues before them.

4. In this vacuum, policy tends to be (a) poorly considered usually with lots of nasty unintended consequences, (b) populist; whatever tends to quiet down the chronic complainers, which by the way are people who have spent the past 25years bitching about the same stupid personal annoyance, (c) self-serving; see real-estate agents.

In Belmont we had a certain unnamed, infamous realtor(tm) who rose to mayor, only to have approved an illegal McMansion development (in a closed session if I recall correctly), which was land acquired by a business partner, and subsequently sold to developers for a few million (as an option, dependent upon approval) from which she directly profited. She came under pressure, resigned, and is still very popular in town. She got to keep her money too, and the little "zoned for 8 houses" area proudly boasts some 30+ overpriced McMansions. I have no doubt that if she ran for mayor again, she'd win. Everyone recognizes her picture, being it's on signs all over town.

The lesson I came away with: "life is too short to waste time herding cats".

**not political advice

Ray W,

Just an excerpt of my cynicism towards city governance:

which has yet to make it past the Planning Department and to the public for a full discussion on the pros and cons. I haven’t yet formulated an opinion, and I won’t, until this matter is before the full City Council, and you have an opportunity to be heard.

Yea yea, that's what we heard a bunch of times in Belmont too. Translation: "I've already made up my mind, but will hide behind formality until this issue has become confused and frustrating. Hopefully no earnest, organized grass-roots efforts arise to counter the proposal, which I shall encourage by refusing to comment on the issue. I'll seek legal advice from our incompetent, subcontracted municipal lawyer which will result in our losing the next 3 years city budget in lawsuits even if the Council votes no anyway. So hey, by the time I push this thing through, you and everyone else should be thanking me."

Have you guys checked out ..

http://overvalued.blogspot.com/

lately...funny...

@Ray W & Astrid,

I have removed the private phone numbers & email addresses from Ray's posts. Unfortunately, neither I, Peter P, Randy H, nor SQT can moderate each other's threads, only those of other people.

City commissions are different in every city. In Belmont they had little to no power and the Council overruled the recommendations of the commissions whenever they wanted to, often in closed session. They can close session whever things get "rowdy", meaning someone speaks emotionally in open debate.

Your mileage may vary.

One piece of unsolicited advice: don't underestimate the power of formality or sound-bite good intentions. If they hold an "affordable housing workshop" and you don't participate and contribute, then they'll discredit you on the subject thereafter. If they label bad housing as "affordable housing", then you cannot attack it directly, or you'll be labeled as a NIMBY, racist, elitist, etc. It's very Orwellian and depressing.

I can't edit comments in a top-level admin's thread (none of us can). So SQT, HARM, Peter P and myself cannot edit each other's threads.

HARM, if you see this, strike the email from the OC.

Randy H, it's already done --see my above comment.

@HARM

I have committed the sin of not scrolling up. My apologies. ;)

Ray W,

Agreed. I guess my only caution is that city government uses "time commitment' as a barrier to entry. If you are going to fight this battle and have it be anything but a complete and utter waste of your time, then you have to invest in it heavily. You must get involved, go to every council meeting, join a commission, and show up to every workshop. Take council members to coffee, help allies campaign, carry little signs around on election day. You have to spend an enormous amount of time on other issues in order to get them to champion your issue.

Something about an analogy to how one makes sausage fits in here.

Ray W and tannebaum,

What's your opinion about the Pleasanton - Dublin - Danville RE market ? I am trying to keep a watch on Morgan Hill and Pleasanton like secondary markets to make a guess about the Cupertino area. (No offense intended by calling these secondary markets. To me, Software job center is Redwood City to San Jose, and is a primary market.)

Thanks.

...or you can start your own grass-roots, organized movement. Then you're trading herding cats for herding A.D.D. ferrets.

Ray,

While I agree that CA desperately needs more housing affordable for working class families, I'm doubt that more "well meaning" government coercion is necessarily the answer. As you said, "cities are not incent[iviz]ed to build owner occupiable worker housing. It doesn’t bring in the revenue like commercial space does or luxury homes do". Let's also not forget the massive credit/speculation-induced bubble we're in right now.

Ignoring the effects of the current credit/asset bubble for this discussion, we can partly thank Prop. 13 for artificially limiting supply long-term. What little housing that does get approved tends to be upscale high-end McMansions that will bring in the most amount of tax revenue per SFT for city/state government. For the most part, local government does not want to "waste" valuable real estate on housing, especially low-tax revenue worker housing --they'd rather approve more high-revenue commercial developments. We can of course also thank ingrained CA NIMBYism for most voters being adamantly opposed to any form of higher density housing (townhomes, condos, etc.), which might increase affordable supply.

I think if we rolled back the RE development laws/regulations to pre-1970s (when housing was still broadly affordable here), dropped the NIMBY mentality and let the free market work its magic, there would soon be no "affordable housing" crisis (again this is ignoring the effects of the current credit/asset bubble on prices).

Sometimes LESS (government) is MORE.

My Sanskrit is really rustic. The word "karma" has many meanings, all related.

The simplest meaning is "actions" - as in someting you do. It refers to the cause and not consequences.

The most famous hymn from Geeta literally says - "You have the right to choose your karma (actions), but not their consequences".

Then again, I doubt even the Universe is a purely closed system. Not a zero-sum game.

What if the universe is an infinite but closed system?

Is the Infinite Hotel a zero-sum game? :)

Peter P,

Entropy will get us all in the end.