patrick.net

Thanks everyone for all the kind words! This was definitely one of my most complex graphics.

@FAB,

The lady next to Casey is CAR's Leslie Appleton-Young ("LAY"), and the guy next to Greedspan is Gary "bagman" Watts.

Nice work, HARM!

OT to some extent (really a reply to the previous thread).

I looked through the Burns report, and noticed that some of the places where they gave the current market a high rating weren't necessarily good qualitative numbers. The Burns methodology simply takes the raw value and compares it to the historical series for the same statistic to get the rating.

So, for example, (nominal) Existing Home and New Home Median Prices both get an 'A', because compared to the historical series they both have current values in the top half dozen samples.

Homeowner's equity gets an A+, because it's just about at the highest NOMINAL value ever, despite in PERCENTAGE terms being very low.

And a common meme I see starting to get pushed (see the Burns report and the latest SoCal Dataquick report for examples).

"Uhh, congresscritters good buddies; those ambiguous numbers the REIC used for years to make the housing market look better than it was in front of buyers.

Ummm, well, you guys are surely too smart to be fooled by them. Aren't you? Especially now that we really need some help?"

Muggy,

Thanks for posting the A&E scam alert! Then again, isn't that half the fascination with these shows? Seeing how a make-up artist or hair stylist w/ZIP experience is going to pull this off?

Wasn't anyone in the least bit worried that digging 18" holes all over the lawn (then removing the temporary potted plants) and filling the hole with grass clippings and bark "might" be a liabilty!?

Bob Villa has been accused of this dating back to the 1970's where electrical outlets and even non-functional ceiling fans were "staged" without so much as electrical wiring to them! The more things change...

Michael Holliday Grabs a chocolate chip cookie from the bag sitting on his breakfast table, munches into it. Crumbs tuble haphazardly onto the table and floor, like a bad metaphor for a housing industry in utter disarray...

He reaches for a cold glass of Hi-C fruit punch, knocks over the salt shaker in the process, and takes a hearty sip as he clicks on MSNBC...

As an empty-skirt, money chick focuses into view, he hears her prattle as so much background noise as he ponders just how fast Arizona is heating up, as summer approaches like a freight train of heavily-weighted Fahrenheit. Today it will be 102.

Said TV chick mentions that David Lereah is leaving...

Michael brushes the crumbs and Hi-C fruit punch mustache from his grizzled mug, then blurts out to no one in particular, "Good riddance to bad rubbish!"

He thinks to himself, "Oh, Leareah's finally gone. Let him join the rogue's gallery on the trash heap of housing history! Begone Satan!"

He belches heartily, tosses a rolled up newspaper at the fly on the TV screen, scratches his buttocks then falls off into a fitful sleep...

In his nocturnal reverie, he encounters Jerry Falwell sporting fairy wings and playing a harp. In a cold sweat, he juts up bolt-right. Was it only a dream?

Okay... I admit that HARM's graphic work is great.

But, I have developed a sensitive spot about the "Mission Accomplished" sign, so often used as a punchline.

I spent 10 months on USS Abraham Lincoln, for that deployment to the middle east, alongside nearly 6000 shipmates. We focused our efforts toward the assigned mission, every day. So when we were finally able to turn over the duties and return home, we did so in the pride that we had accomplished OUR mission. That sign was made BY the ship, FOR the ship, as a testament to the ship's crew and all that we had gone through.

I am as disgusted now as I was then, that Bush took advantage of our return as a backdrop for one of his podium ramblings. (Little fact about that speech: we were close enought to San Diego to see Point Loma on the horizon.)

It has been quite a while since "Abe" returned, and a lot has happened. But still, that sign shows up every once in awhile. Always the butt of a joke.

Steveoh - the reason that I - and a lot of other people - get so much enjoyment from the "Mission Accomplished" banner is precisely the reason you mentioned.

Most thinking people realise that it was placed there to celebrate the considerable effort the Armed Forces made in completing their part of the deal - only to be hi-jacked by the Prez for his own glorification.

Every time I see it now, all I see is Dubbya 'pissing on your chips' (US translation - 'urinating in your french fries' as in 'raining on your parade').

It doesn't demean or diminish the efforts of everyone fighting so hard to bring this war to a successful concluson.

Michael Holliday - if the Rev Falwell isn't now wearing horns, a tail and to be seen travelling downward at speed, then there's something very wrong with the cosmos.

Maybe you were upsidedown in your dream??

Steveoh,

That is absolutely hysterical! I had NO IDEA! The way that was portrayed in the media was as if the "bird farm" was in the Persian Gulf! I was onboard the Tarawa, Peleliu and spent 39 mos. at Cubi Pt. in the Philippines.

The great thing about those commands was that nearly no pol would be caught dead there for a photo op. (Other than Sen. Alan Cranston in the early 80's) when they were filming Herman Wouk's "Winds of War" and I think they told him it was a more prestigious ship? He must have been in his 90's?

DinOR,

Oh yeah! The whole thing was so staged. The fly on... the long walk to the podium... the hand selected sailors in flight deck jersies on the grand stand off in the distance, during the speech. The Secret Service were total jerks too. I remember getting shoved into a fanroom and told not open the door, as "Traveler" and the entourage were making their way up the passageway. I thought to myself, "now I'm a threat?"

The funny part for us was when the Pres went out into the crowd of Airdales, after he landed. The Secret Service goons were freaking out because they lost control for a few minutes.

...and you know how the spaces get field-day'ed when a VIP is coming? We were replacing floor tiles and firestations for this circus!

But I completely understand the reference made in the graphic above.
I was just sayin...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Cranston

Different era, different guy. We had a cake and punch set out on the flight deck and it was obvious the poor guy had a medical staff attending to him every moment.

HARM,
For all those folks who are diggin' the graphic, could you provide a link to the thread we had a while back where we had a RE Bubble graphics/Photoshop-a-thon?

SP,

Bush won the election in 2004. You have no further say. (snark)

Steveoh Says:
May 16th, 2007 at 9:00 am
"DinOR,
Oh yeah! The whole thing was so staged. The fly on… the long walk to the podium… the hand selected sailors in flight deck jersies on the grand stand off in the distance, during the speech. The Secret Service were total jerks too. I remember getting shoved into a fanroom and told not open the door, as “Traveler” and the entourage were making their way up the passageway. I thought to myself, “now I’m a threat?”

This is the most disgusting thing I've read this month.

The "Mission Accomplished Banner" aside what makes this particular piece of work utterly amazing is the 1.2 mil. "For Sale" sign next to the shack in the lower left hand corner!

Just a little "Bubble Trivia" but does anyone recall what inspired that little gem?

A. Fantasyland Mortgage

B. DL's mom's house

C. "Naked City" Las Vegas 'home' in the path of progress

D. Senor' Cardage Mortgage

I like the way Harm did the graphic. It is really a work of art because the viewer has so many interpretations. I think the metaphor of DL calling the bottom 5 times or so reminded me of the good job everyone mission accomplished speech. Then both events seem to follow a similar path. I like the stacked audience, the cheerleaders, and the general theme of conspiracy and corruption. It is a powerful graphic, and I hope that it is not offensive to the great people of our military. Like really good art it should evoke emotion, and be thought provoking.

thenuttyneutron,

You are welcome to re-distribute as you see fit. Unfortunately, what you see is what you get, quality-wise. It was just a composite of a bunch of low-quality news jpegs I got off the net, so that limits the size somewhat.

I cannot unload my overpriced $1.8 million home -- how about a raffle. Now that's creative!

Big dream$: Since last fall, the Mount Madonna School -- a college prep academy in the hills outside Santa Cruz with an enrollment of 180 students -- has been promoting one of the most unusual raffles we've ever seen.

So much for the old-fashioned bake sale.

thenuttyneutron,

Interesting!

WRONG! But... interesting.

(Actually you're spot on. I just love saying that) :)

In typical Vegas fashion the mentality is that if you can "hang in there" long enough the big pay-off will be there, but only HARM can asnwer that for sure.

skibum,

You can find the link to the old Photoshop thread in my "May 15th, 2007 4:34pm" post above.

In the 90s when a smaller version of this meltdown happened I remember one creative homeowner hired a panel of English teachers and had an essay contest. It cost $X to enter your essay and the winner was given the house. I didn't think it was legal at the time but it was an interesting story that the local news picked up.

ozajh Says:

Homeowner’s equity gets an A+, because it’s just about at the highest NOMINAL value ever, despite in PERCENTAGE terms being very low.

No kidding. And what happens to all that vaunted vapor-equity if prices really start taking the plunge? We're just at the start of the roller-coaster downslope on lender tightening and option-ARM resets, with 5-6 more years to go, if history is any guide. FBs better hope heli-Ben starts aggresively reflating soon.

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0507.shtm

Bay Area DQ numbers are out.

Prices increased for the third month in a row to a new record, a real estate information service reported.

See, no bubble! :)

Buy, Buy, Buy!

Indicators of market distress are moving in different directions. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is declining significantly. Foreclosure activity is rising but is still in the normal range. Down payment sizes are stable and flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is down, DataQuick reported.

Coming from Pollyanna/NAR-fanboys like DQ, this is like saying, "The sky is falling! Run for the hills!!"

I'll know the RE perma-bull dam has really cracked when I see Kudlow turning bearish.

Indicators of market distress are moving in different directions.

Like "Haywire?"

"Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis the last 27 months."

Did I read that right?

tannenbaum,

Well said. Unless you're in the industry you either have to:

A. Take it at face value

B. Get the funny feeling something isn't right

C. Find room for one more reminder "post-it" on your PC

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_5910126

"But in those expensive counties, there's a catch to understanding the increase in median prices: The mix of homes that are selling has changed. Considerably fewer homes than normal are selling in the least expensive neighborhoods. With those out of the mix, the median price rises. Some homes in some neighborhoods are gaining in value, certainly - but this spring, "market mix" is also a factor clearly influencing the increase in median prices."

Also, the trend for asking prices is decidedly down while the trend of inventory is firmly up.

http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/California/SanJose/

The only reason the median has increased in the last 3 months is because of a higher proportion of high end sales versus the plummeting of entry level sales. Few entry level sales skews the numbers to a higher median price. Funny how Data Quick never really mentions this.

To DataQuick's credit they explicitly mention this phenomena in yesterday's release for the SoCal numbers. Note that parts of Socal are seeing over a 45% (San Bernadino and Riverside counties) dropoff in sales (which clearly affects the mix). The average drop in sales for SoCal is ~28% while NorCal is ~18% (with the highest drop offs in Solano and Contra Costa).
And as lunarpark points out, some of the news agencies are catching on to the fact that the median is not the whole story.

Dow still soaring. The next Bubble?......

EBGuy,

I'm not out to totally... discredit DQ but doesn't it seem odd that they only reveal certain interpretations of the data when it's all but obvious? Perhaps the "median debate" isn't as hotly contested in the MSM as it is here but there have been those over the last few quarters that have challenged it's value.

DP,

Dow 36,000!

http://tinyurl.com/3dyoc7

I am not a fan of Freud. I like Jung better. Synchronicity all the way!

Or perhaps I make Barnum statements only.

But GC, some may think that you are pushing the limit again.

Have you read Jung’s lecture notes on Also Sprach Zarathustra?

No.

All I did was quoting a scholarly publication by a famous man.

People can still question your motive.

If I were to psychoanalyze you, I would say that you have a subconscious desire for conflicts.

Domination is not much different from conflict.