patrick.net

HARM,
For all those folks who are diggin' the graphic, could you provide a link to the thread we had a while back where we had a RE Bubble graphics/Photoshop-a-thon?

SP,

Bush won the election in 2004. You have no further say. (snark)

Steveoh Says:
May 16th, 2007 at 9:00 am
"DinOR,
Oh yeah! The whole thing was so staged. The fly on… the long walk to the podium… the hand selected sailors in flight deck jersies on the grand stand off in the distance, during the speech. The Secret Service were total jerks too. I remember getting shoved into a fanroom and told not open the door, as “Traveler” and the entourage were making their way up the passageway. I thought to myself, “now I’m a threat?”

This is the most disgusting thing I've read this month.

The "Mission Accomplished Banner" aside what makes this particular piece of work utterly amazing is the 1.2 mil. "For Sale" sign next to the shack in the lower left hand corner!

Just a little "Bubble Trivia" but does anyone recall what inspired that little gem?

A. Fantasyland Mortgage

B. DL's mom's house

C. "Naked City" Las Vegas 'home' in the path of progress

D. Senor' Cardage Mortgage

I like the way Harm did the graphic. It is really a work of art because the viewer has so many interpretations. I think the metaphor of DL calling the bottom 5 times or so reminded me of the good job everyone mission accomplished speech. Then both events seem to follow a similar path. I like the stacked audience, the cheerleaders, and the general theme of conspiracy and corruption. It is a powerful graphic, and I hope that it is not offensive to the great people of our military. Like really good art it should evoke emotion, and be thought provoking.

thenuttyneutron,

You are welcome to re-distribute as you see fit. Unfortunately, what you see is what you get, quality-wise. It was just a composite of a bunch of low-quality news jpegs I got off the net, so that limits the size somewhat.

I cannot unload my overpriced $1.8 million home -- how about a raffle. Now that's creative!

Big dream$: Since last fall, the Mount Madonna School -- a college prep academy in the hills outside Santa Cruz with an enrollment of 180 students -- has been promoting one of the most unusual raffles we've ever seen.

So much for the old-fashioned bake sale.

thenuttyneutron,

Interesting!

WRONG! But... interesting.

(Actually you're spot on. I just love saying that) :)

In typical Vegas fashion the mentality is that if you can "hang in there" long enough the big pay-off will be there, but only HARM can asnwer that for sure.

skibum,

You can find the link to the old Photoshop thread in my "May 15th, 2007 4:34pm" post above.

In the 90s when a smaller version of this meltdown happened I remember one creative homeowner hired a panel of English teachers and had an essay contest. It cost $X to enter your essay and the winner was given the house. I didn't think it was legal at the time but it was an interesting story that the local news picked up.

ozajh Says:

Homeowner’s equity gets an A+, because it’s just about at the highest NOMINAL value ever, despite in PERCENTAGE terms being very low.

No kidding. And what happens to all that vaunted vapor-equity if prices really start taking the plunge? We're just at the start of the roller-coaster downslope on lender tightening and option-ARM resets, with 5-6 more years to go, if history is any guide. FBs better hope heli-Ben starts aggresively reflating soon.

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0507.shtm

Bay Area DQ numbers are out.

Prices increased for the third month in a row to a new record, a real estate information service reported.

See, no bubble! :)

Buy, Buy, Buy!

Indicators of market distress are moving in different directions. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is declining significantly. Foreclosure activity is rising but is still in the normal range. Down payment sizes are stable and flipping rates and non-owner occupied buying activity is down, DataQuick reported.

Coming from Pollyanna/NAR-fanboys like DQ, this is like saying, "The sky is falling! Run for the hills!!"

I'll know the RE perma-bull dam has really cracked when I see Kudlow turning bearish.

Indicators of market distress are moving in different directions.

Like "Haywire?"

"Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis the last 27 months."

Did I read that right?

tannenbaum,

Well said. Unless you're in the industry you either have to:

A. Take it at face value

B. Get the funny feeling something isn't right

C. Find room for one more reminder "post-it" on your PC

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_5910126

"But in those expensive counties, there's a catch to understanding the increase in median prices: The mix of homes that are selling has changed. Considerably fewer homes than normal are selling in the least expensive neighborhoods. With those out of the mix, the median price rises. Some homes in some neighborhoods are gaining in value, certainly - but this spring, "market mix" is also a factor clearly influencing the increase in median prices."

Also, the trend for asking prices is decidedly down while the trend of inventory is firmly up.

http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/California/SanJose/

The only reason the median has increased in the last 3 months is because of a higher proportion of high end sales versus the plummeting of entry level sales. Few entry level sales skews the numbers to a higher median price. Funny how Data Quick never really mentions this.

To DataQuick's credit they explicitly mention this phenomena in yesterday's release for the SoCal numbers. Note that parts of Socal are seeing over a 45% (San Bernadino and Riverside counties) dropoff in sales (which clearly affects the mix). The average drop in sales for SoCal is ~28% while NorCal is ~18% (with the highest drop offs in Solano and Contra Costa).
And as lunarpark points out, some of the news agencies are catching on to the fact that the median is not the whole story.

Dow still soaring. The next Bubble?......

EBGuy,

I'm not out to totally... discredit DQ but doesn't it seem odd that they only reveal certain interpretations of the data when it's all but obvious? Perhaps the "median debate" isn't as hotly contested in the MSM as it is here but there have been those over the last few quarters that have challenged it's value.

DP,

Dow 36,000!

http://tinyurl.com/3dyoc7

I am not a fan of Freud. I like Jung better. Synchronicity all the way!

Or perhaps I make Barnum statements only.

But GC, some may think that you are pushing the limit again.

Have you read Jung’s lecture notes on Also Sprach Zarathustra?

No.

All I did was quoting a scholarly publication by a famous man.

People can still question your motive.

If I were to psychoanalyze you, I would say that you have a subconscious desire for conflicts.

Domination is not much different from conflict.

Won’t you say you learned something new today from Herr Freud?

I learn something new every day. That is the wonder of living.

In tough housing times like this, shouldn’t people be able to afford less expensive homes? Shouldn’t lower end homes be selling quicker?

Absolutely not. The ability for lower-end people to afford housing has been affected. As a result, low-end housing are not transacting.

Is there data to back this up somewhere? For example, the average house square foot should have gone up in the recent year (bigger house = more expensive) if this is true, right?

Not necessarily. Better homes in better locations are more expensive.

You can also take a look at the asking price trend. If the median asking prices is going down while the median sale price is going up, you know the mix is changing.

@James,

Excellent question. We know the median price can be skewed in either direction (up or down) by a greater-than-average number of sales of either very high-end houses or low-end houses. It can also be skewed by lower-than-average sales volume (like we're seeing now), because each individual sale that gets recorded represents a larger fraction of total sales for a given area.

But the real question for us is, do the numbers really support the assumption that mostly high-end houses are selling, and skewing the median higher?

I'm pretty sure the OFHEO quarterly sales report is coming out soon (tomorrow?), and that it --unlike CAR's "median" stat-- mostly relies on same-house sales. In other words, while it's not perfect (excludes condo/townhouse/co-op sales) it is a little better at comparing apples to apples: http://www.ofheo.gov/HPIFAQ.asp

If anyone out there has some good stats/links on what the break-down is for houses that are selling now vs. previous years, please post them.

However, I do not expect prices to have come down significantly already. Core Bay Area is still a Frickin Fortress.

SF "area" also includes Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Solano, etc.

"Yeah, that usually happens when it hits the fan" LOL!

Watch out below, above and to the sides! Aw the hell with it, get coveralls and rubber boots!

Watch out below, above and to the sides! Aw the hell with it, get coveralls and rubber boots!

I would just leave the room.

I’m a little suspicious of www.housingtracker.net’s data. It claims that the current inventory of the SF area is 15639 and the data is taken from MLS listings. But if I go to mlslistings.com and choose the San Francisco, Alameda, and San Mateo counties, I see only 2778 listings available. Am I missing something here?

Feel free to email the guy - I've done it before. He's pretty friendly.

The phenomenon of falling house prices on the outskirts while prices of homes in the prestigious areas are stable has occurred in Sydney, Australia a couple of years ago based on news reports I have seen.

Anyone with more experience of the Australian housing market would care to explain why prices of the more expensive homes in Sydney remained stable.

Gavin,

Sydney is the financial centre of Australia, so the London/Manhattan effect applies (on a smaller scale, of course) to the more expensive houses.