patrick.net

nomad,

I can't speak to the East Bay, but in Marin we can see that a couple of the bigger cities are way outside of their supportable premium-to-county, so any overall correction should by amplified there as it "double corrects".

I'd guess that low-premium/discount areas will overshoot the correction (or overshoot by more). You really need to dig into those communities you want to live in and see how they relate to the county, then you'll get an idea if they'll drop by more or less than the mean.

I haven't proven it, but my smeller tells me that premiums strongly correlate to school districts. Given all this AP discussion, I guess that's why Mill Valley commands such a high premium-to-county, even given most of the houses here are absolute crap-boxes.

I haven’t proven it, but my smeller tells me that premiums strongly correlate to school districts.

You are correct. The word "correlate" is quite accurate. I would further suggest that housing premium and school districts form a reflexive relationship. I believe educated parents, who form a self-selected group, are the most important essence of a good school.

I believe that lots of real-world systems are highly reflective. Earlier today I got into an argument on a tech blog because of the trouble that reflectivity causes for philosophical arguments about stuff. Mathematically, reflectivity is boring, and is probably a default state of many naturally occurring systems.

Mathematically, reflectivity is boring, and is probably a default state of many naturally occurring systems.

Financially, reflexivity is interesting. :)

We see fractals in chaos, but we also find order in the form of fibonacci ratio. Amazing. The intelligent designer is great. ;)

The intelligent designer is great.

No need to thank me. ;)

The standard of education in middle and high school level in the US is poor compared to other developed or developing countries. Students are faced with a major workload when they move from high school to college which i think is the reason why there are lot of dropouts. I think kids should be well prepped before they graduate from high schools. Its hard to compare equal age kids from US with other countries.

I believe parents who strongly value education are the best thing for schools.

Very true. Good school districts have good schools mostly because the parents are willing (or able) to pay a premium.

Didn’t Bill Cosby receive a lot of grief for complaining about a culture where a woman would buy her kids $200 sneakers but wouldn’t spend the money on Hooked on Phonics?

The answer: school uniforms. Everyone will buy uniform from one single source, which allows no customization whatsoever.

But whoever designed the human knee and lower back owes me an explanation.

Perhaps that part of the design was outsourced. Mine was hurting all day yesterday.

Peter P,

Kids will screw around regardless. We're talking about the same population whose parents play craps with their life's biggest purchase. Abstinance programs just don't work.

With condoms and birth control, there's at least the chance of delaying pregnancies until they know better.

But whoever designed the human knee and lower back owes me an explanation.

I believe the Gospel suggests this is because the Flying Spaghetti Monster was drunk at the time.

The answer: school uniforms. Everyone will buy uniform from one single source, which allows no customization whatsoever.

Is this enforced now? Seems like a recipe for monopoly. Back when I was in grade school we had uniforms, but it was not specified down to the manufacturer. Of course, this meant that status was based on who had the alligator on their shirt, or something similarly trivial.

With condoms and birth control, there’s at least the chance of delaying pregnancies until they know better.

True. But these programs are also giving the impression that it is okay to do it. Besides, there needs to be punitive measures against those teens who do get pregnant.

I think religion can lend a hand.

Of course, this meant that status was based on who had the alligator on their shirt, or something similarly trivial.

The school should sell standardized uniforms.

Besides, there needs to be punitive measures against those teens who do get pregnant.

I think religion can lend a hand.

Huh? I thought those pesky Catholics have been getting much bad press for lending hands, and other assorted body parts.

As for school uniforms. Absolutely agree. As far as I'm concerned, every kid should have 7 sets of uniform from age 7 to when they graduate college. At that time, they can transition into bland business/business casual wear.

At some point, the advertising companies have convinced billions of people that they are what they consume, and what is produced by the millions can make them unique and special (shudder).

Huh? I thought those pesky Catholics have been getting much bad press for lending hands, and other assorted body parts.

LOL.

and what is produced by the millions can make them unique and special

I think what you eat can make you unique and special.

Peter P,

First of all, I'm an atheist, so religion is not really an option. 2ndly, I think being stuck with a baby or two when you're 16 is punishment enough. The problem is that kids are impulsive and quick to come under to pressure by their peer group. As often as not, they're just not mature enough to think through the consequences and control themselves. It's better just to give them a chance to save them from themselves.

Punishing young people for having sex is awfully judgmental.

Standardize the shoes too!

That'll never happen!!

"Don’t be silly. You are unique and special because you can afford to lease a new car every year, expensive tennis shoes and a fancy cell phone."

LOL! And I must have a 3 carat tiffany cut diamond ring! And a $200,000 wedding! And a 5,000 sq. ft. McMansion on the hill! And drapes!

Punishing young people for having sex is awfully judgmental.

Perhaps. But they should at least have precautions.

Peter P,

But that's what Condom Thursday is all about!

Well, how bizarrely nerdy is it that my biggest discretionary expenditure this spring is on plants destined for other people's yard. Now that really sets me apart!

Punishing young people for having sex is awfully judgmental.

I blame the Creator (a.k.a., "Not So-Intelligent Designer").
If She/He/It/Whatever would simply delay puberty until people were older and more emotionally mature (25 maybe?) we would'nt have so many teen pregnancies. Cultural/religious values wouldn't even be a factor, biological imperative trumps all.

HARM,

I blame the Creator (a.k.a., “Not So-Intelligent Designer”).

LOL, I was gonna blame college. If people just got married out of middle school (puberty), then there would be no out of wedlock births.

@skibum,

That's a very good point. Late-onset puberty would have meant the end of the species in pre-modern times. Perhaps we can delay it today through drugs or genetic engineering. SFWoman -ideas?

Perhaps we can delay it today through drugs or genetic engineering.

We don't have to. Mind over body.

A long time ago* people did get married that early. Of course, back then you were expect to perform a given function, and you didn't need to handle any complex thinking. I have relatives who have gotten married young, but they have also settled mostly into their careers.

I think people would mature far faster if there wasn't a feeling that kids need to be protected from harsh realities until far too late. Religion doesn't seem to help, mostly since people with strong faith grounded in poor logic seem most vulnerable to the law of unintended consequences. (That's not a knock against religion, since belief should be based on faith, and logical proofs are anathema to faith. It's a knock against people who attempt to justify faith through inevitably flawed logic.)

*I'm restricting this to post-fall-of-Rome times, since before then things were much more similar to modern times.

Maybe just send all kids to single sex boarding school. More gays (as FAB mentioned) and less babies.

All these problem would have all been avoided if the Creator made us into highly spiritual and intellectual energy beings...

Instead we are hot-blooded flesh.

Peter P Mind over body.

Have you forgotten the passions of youth? They think they are indestructable. Also, puberty begins much earlier now...often at 9 years old for girls. Yikes!

Linda,

Peter was driving below the speed limit when he was 16! He comes from us but he is not us. :P

Linda,

Yuck, those soy additives really mess with young kids.

Excellent! Maybe a line for desperate specuvestors and realtors.

That would be: should I do 7 or 13?

nomatoon, I really don't know where you get your crazy ideas, but you seem to be filled with an irrational hatred and envy of California. Where do you live that you have grown to have such stange ideas about this state?

California has been growing in population, steadily for the last 50 years, at 4-5M a decade and shows no signs of slowing down.

UCLA does population projections every decade and they have been spot on since the 60s. They have California population continuing to grow until it hits 50M in 2030 and then perhaps levelling off.

No amount of media hype could possible make people want to live in North Dakota. I grew up in Wyoming and there is no reason to live there, outside of the hunting and fishing. Seven month long winters with blowing snow and below zero temperatures are just misable. North Dakota is even worse, since it has less natural beauty.

Someone was saying that Bay Area incomes were decreasing. Here are the family income stats for San Francisco County:http://patrick.net/wp/?p=208#comments

1970 - $10503
1980 - $20911
1990 - $40561
2000 - $63545
2004 - $68557

In 2004 dollars that would be:

1970 - $47958
1980 - $47961
1990 - $68515
2000 - $69676
2004 - $68557

Which does show that family incomes have been stagnant since 1990, a finding that surprised me. Per capita incomes show a similar trend.

I thought it was the chicken — they feed estrogen to the chicken so they get larger breasts…

I do not eat chicken breasts. I prefer my grilled half-chicken to have two legs.

SFWoman San Francisco has the best urban public school system in the state. Perhaps that speaks more to the poor quality of education statewide than to the high quality of San Francisco schools, but there are many very good schools at every level in San Francisco.

For elementry schools, you rank 7 schools and there is about a 90% chance you get one of them. There are 7 10/10 rated public grade schools here, but almost all of them are on the West Side, which can be quite a trek if you live in Noe Valley.

There are two middle schools that get 10/10 rating and 3 that get 9/10. The perfect scoring schools are Presidio Middle School and Yu Elementry School. I don't know the exact way that get entry into middle schools, but it has to be similar to the grade and high school ranking methods.

I can certainly understand the "snob appeal" of sending you children to private school, but in fact there are many very good public schools in San Francisco and they are available to every San Francisco resident. Most of them are on the West side though, so it can be time consuming to do the commute. In some ways this is better than making them only available to the weathly though, since a motivated Mom from Bay View could still get her kid a good education, if she was willing to spend the time doing it.

Jimbo
It's interesting but, the whole snob appeal thing just doesn't appeal to me at all. My son went to a public elementary school where there were more snooty people than at his private middle school. We were looking for a wholesome peer group and good values. Some private schools in LA are known for their snob appeal because of their celebrity clientelle and their superior attitudes. We intentionally chose not to apply there.

Jimbo

Which does show that family incomes have been stagnant since 1990, a finding that surprised me. Per capita incomes show a similar trend.

The 1990 stagnation is a combination of inflation history, the onset of widespread outsourcing, and an acceleration of wealth concentration. It is during this period that the shape of the income distribution curve started shifting to a more bi-modal distribution, and it shifted more in the Coastal states, CA being probably the most extreme. Thus the roaring-90s, during which many people experienced dramatic wage increases and wealth increases, but the stagnant median family income stat.

I am pretty sure all the High Schools in San Francisco offer AP classes, though the offering at Mission is reportedly very meagre.

The class sizes are small across the board, with the average class size being 20.

Can you tell I have been arguing with my wife about San Francisco schools?

She wants to move to the suburbs when our daughter is old enough to go and I want to stay here. Luckily that decision is still five years away.