patrick.net

SFWoman,

We pondered an actual model and formulae for determining this more precisely on my blog in this thread. (I think I already posted this link in the last thread, if it looks familiar).

The problem is the answer will be different by community/neighborhood and price point relative to that community. There really is no "average house". Think of it like this, a $1M home in Atherton may lose less nominal value than a $1M home in Redwood City, especially if the Atherton zip code historically commands say a 20% premium over San Mateo County's median, whereas Redwood City is at or slightly below county median.

In attempting to come up with my best guess about a year ago I took County-wide median price data going back to the 60s, ran a regression. I then did the same for zips I was interested in, and determined the supportable premium to the county. You can see that most zips stay within a very defined premium (discount) band relative to the county, and they always correct back either way if they venture outside.

What I haven't done is attempt to model the future. That is what we were talking about in that thread above. The problem is that prices are largely driven by psychological factors, so theoretical mean is only a gravitational center. Theoretical mean home price should be determined not directly from inflation, but from affordability: take the median income of families in $1M homes (I don't know what that is), and solve for what home price will give a monthly gross income to PITI (including income tax shield) of 28%.

That's my approach, anyway. Others will disagree. You can use the Bubblizer to do a what-if on this: just guess at income and rent levels and trial & error home prices until you get average 28% ownership costs.

Maybe I am just open minded. I’m still a bit of a snob about some things though.

I am also very "hawkish" about certain issues. ;)

Everyone around me is a (social) liberal though.

I am also very “hawkish” about certain issues.

You are very hawkish on sushi.

You can use the Bubblizer to do a what-if on this: just guess at income and rent levels and trial & error home prices until you get average 28% ownership costs.

Warning: the Bubblizer does not consider planetary aspects :)

...but it is the best we can possibly have. Thanks Randy.

I still cannot believe this. I can barely see straight. Most of the schools do NOT offer AP classes.

Look at what Mission HS DOES offer (from the web site):

Rochelle towers, M.S.W., wellness coordinator
Suede Marsh, Nurse Practitioner
Judy Romero, MFT, counseling from Richmond areas Multi-services
Sam Smith, Psychologist, Richmond areas multi-services
Rebecca yun, substance abuse counselor, Asian American Recovery Services
Jacob Simmons, counselor, Horizons unlimited
Sweta Shah, domestic and dating violence, La casa de las Madres
Health corps Workers, Community and school wide outreach

What we do:

Nursing Services

Screening for vision, hearing, nutrition and hypertension. Support for Chronic illness such as asthma and diabetes, obesity, skin condition, etc.

November Flu shots for staff who are interested.

Nurse Practitioner is on site 4 days a week (not on Tuesday). We are not a full-scale clinic and cannot dispense any medications.

First aid

Mental health services

We have counselors, all of whom are on a part-time basis

Substance abuse prevention and counseling

Substance abuse counselor on campus 2 days per week. See students who have been identified as having abuse issues.

Reproductive and physical health service

Starting this week, we dispense condoms to students during lunchtime on Thursdays

Monthly pregnancy and STD screening and on site counseling will begin Late November

Support groups

Talking circles-aimed at 9th and 10th grade girls. Lunchtime Wednesday

Building Personal power: empowering your generation-Skills group for dealing with anger. Separate group for male, female. Starting beginning of November

Work with mission accomplish, tutoring Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday after school in library and by appointment for other times

Referral and links to other community based organizations

Students Assistance Program (SAP)

Presentations on a range of topics for classrooms or faculty. Soon we will provide you with form so you can indicate topic of interest.

How Do I Refer Students To The Wellness Center?

General Concerns:

If a teacher feels that a student a student needs attention for general concerns, the teacher should refer the student to his/her counselor with a 1.0 form. If appropriate the counselor will refer the students to the wellness center.

Health Concern:

The teacher can refer the student to come down to the wellness center during the nurse’s drop-in hours, which are everyday during lunch and after school except Tuesday.

If the health concern is urgent then the teacher can call down to the Wellness Center to see if nurse is in and make an appointment for student. Please use the provided referral slip.

Psychosocial Counseling:

A student may have already been referred to the Wellness Center and one of our counselors may call your class to request that a student be seen during that period.

At first I seriously thought the site was a was a parody of mealy-mouthed liberalsim -- but it's real! Look at this! It is disgusting!

A "dating violence" counselor? WTF? This is disgusting!

..and let's not forget "CONDOM THURSDAYS"

("Starting this week, we dispense condoms to students during lunchtime on Thursdays.")

Isn't CA the greatest?

(”Starting this week, we dispense condoms to students during lunchtime on Thursdays.”)

I don't know. They should be teaching sexual abstinence instead.

A good question would be is does anyone think fringe areas like Dublin, Pleasanton, Etc will have higher price drops than BA proper? A soft landing where I might have to wait 5-7 years is unacceptable, and if prices don't come down at least 20-30%, then this too is unacceptable.

I think that they have given up on the students academically and they are just trying to keep the girls from getting pregnant or beat up by their (or their mothers’) boyfriends.

Teen pregnancy rate is too high. This is because the society accepts it. If there are more consequences, people will think twice before doing something stupid.

The police should handle the abuse cases.

nomad,

I can't speak to the East Bay, but in Marin we can see that a couple of the bigger cities are way outside of their supportable premium-to-county, so any overall correction should by amplified there as it "double corrects".

I'd guess that low-premium/discount areas will overshoot the correction (or overshoot by more). You really need to dig into those communities you want to live in and see how they relate to the county, then you'll get an idea if they'll drop by more or less than the mean.

I haven't proven it, but my smeller tells me that premiums strongly correlate to school districts. Given all this AP discussion, I guess that's why Mill Valley commands such a high premium-to-county, even given most of the houses here are absolute crap-boxes.

I haven’t proven it, but my smeller tells me that premiums strongly correlate to school districts.

You are correct. The word "correlate" is quite accurate. I would further suggest that housing premium and school districts form a reflexive relationship. I believe educated parents, who form a self-selected group, are the most important essence of a good school.

I believe that lots of real-world systems are highly reflective. Earlier today I got into an argument on a tech blog because of the trouble that reflectivity causes for philosophical arguments about stuff. Mathematically, reflectivity is boring, and is probably a default state of many naturally occurring systems.

Mathematically, reflectivity is boring, and is probably a default state of many naturally occurring systems.

Financially, reflexivity is interesting. :)

We see fractals in chaos, but we also find order in the form of fibonacci ratio. Amazing. The intelligent designer is great. ;)

The intelligent designer is great.

No need to thank me. ;)

The standard of education in middle and high school level in the US is poor compared to other developed or developing countries. Students are faced with a major workload when they move from high school to college which i think is the reason why there are lot of dropouts. I think kids should be well prepped before they graduate from high schools. Its hard to compare equal age kids from US with other countries.

I believe parents who strongly value education are the best thing for schools.

Very true. Good school districts have good schools mostly because the parents are willing (or able) to pay a premium.

Didn’t Bill Cosby receive a lot of grief for complaining about a culture where a woman would buy her kids $200 sneakers but wouldn’t spend the money on Hooked on Phonics?

The answer: school uniforms. Everyone will buy uniform from one single source, which allows no customization whatsoever.

But whoever designed the human knee and lower back owes me an explanation.

Perhaps that part of the design was outsourced. Mine was hurting all day yesterday.

Peter P,

Kids will screw around regardless. We're talking about the same population whose parents play craps with their life's biggest purchase. Abstinance programs just don't work.

With condoms and birth control, there's at least the chance of delaying pregnancies until they know better.

But whoever designed the human knee and lower back owes me an explanation.

I believe the Gospel suggests this is because the Flying Spaghetti Monster was drunk at the time.

The answer: school uniforms. Everyone will buy uniform from one single source, which allows no customization whatsoever.

Is this enforced now? Seems like a recipe for monopoly. Back when I was in grade school we had uniforms, but it was not specified down to the manufacturer. Of course, this meant that status was based on who had the alligator on their shirt, or something similarly trivial.

With condoms and birth control, there’s at least the chance of delaying pregnancies until they know better.

True. But these programs are also giving the impression that it is okay to do it. Besides, there needs to be punitive measures against those teens who do get pregnant.

I think religion can lend a hand.

Of course, this meant that status was based on who had the alligator on their shirt, or something similarly trivial.

The school should sell standardized uniforms.

Besides, there needs to be punitive measures against those teens who do get pregnant.

I think religion can lend a hand.

Huh? I thought those pesky Catholics have been getting much bad press for lending hands, and other assorted body parts.

As for school uniforms. Absolutely agree. As far as I'm concerned, every kid should have 7 sets of uniform from age 7 to when they graduate college. At that time, they can transition into bland business/business casual wear.

At some point, the advertising companies have convinced billions of people that they are what they consume, and what is produced by the millions can make them unique and special (shudder).

Huh? I thought those pesky Catholics have been getting much bad press for lending hands, and other assorted body parts.

LOL.

and what is produced by the millions can make them unique and special

I think what you eat can make you unique and special.

Peter P,

First of all, I'm an atheist, so religion is not really an option. 2ndly, I think being stuck with a baby or two when you're 16 is punishment enough. The problem is that kids are impulsive and quick to come under to pressure by their peer group. As often as not, they're just not mature enough to think through the consequences and control themselves. It's better just to give them a chance to save them from themselves.

Punishing young people for having sex is awfully judgmental.

Standardize the shoes too!

That'll never happen!!

"Don’t be silly. You are unique and special because you can afford to lease a new car every year, expensive tennis shoes and a fancy cell phone."

LOL! And I must have a 3 carat tiffany cut diamond ring! And a $200,000 wedding! And a 5,000 sq. ft. McMansion on the hill! And drapes!

Punishing young people for having sex is awfully judgmental.

Perhaps. But they should at least have precautions.

Peter P,

But that's what Condom Thursday is all about!

Well, how bizarrely nerdy is it that my biggest discretionary expenditure this spring is on plants destined for other people's yard. Now that really sets me apart!

Punishing young people for having sex is awfully judgmental.

I blame the Creator (a.k.a., "Not So-Intelligent Designer").
If She/He/It/Whatever would simply delay puberty until people were older and more emotionally mature (25 maybe?) we would'nt have so many teen pregnancies. Cultural/religious values wouldn't even be a factor, biological imperative trumps all.

HARM,

I blame the Creator (a.k.a., “Not So-Intelligent Designer”).

LOL, I was gonna blame college. If people just got married out of middle school (puberty), then there would be no out of wedlock births.

@skibum,

That's a very good point. Late-onset puberty would have meant the end of the species in pre-modern times. Perhaps we can delay it today through drugs or genetic engineering. SFWoman -ideas?

Perhaps we can delay it today through drugs or genetic engineering.

We don't have to. Mind over body.

A long time ago* people did get married that early. Of course, back then you were expect to perform a given function, and you didn't need to handle any complex thinking. I have relatives who have gotten married young, but they have also settled mostly into their careers.

I think people would mature far faster if there wasn't a feeling that kids need to be protected from harsh realities until far too late. Religion doesn't seem to help, mostly since people with strong faith grounded in poor logic seem most vulnerable to the law of unintended consequences. (That's not a knock against religion, since belief should be based on faith, and logical proofs are anathema to faith. It's a knock against people who attempt to justify faith through inevitably flawed logic.)

*I'm restricting this to post-fall-of-Rome times, since before then things were much more similar to modern times.

Maybe just send all kids to single sex boarding school. More gays (as FAB mentioned) and less babies.

All these problem would have all been avoided if the Creator made us into highly spiritual and intellectual energy beings...

Instead we are hot-blooded flesh.

Peter P Mind over body.

Have you forgotten the passions of youth? They think they are indestructable. Also, puberty begins much earlier now...often at 9 years old for girls. Yikes!