patrick.net

We won't know how Bernanke is doing for at least another six months. If he can keep us out of a recession without sparking off inflation, then he is a genius in my book.

Jimbo said:
This is exactly what I have been doing ever since Bush was elected. I recommended this back in 2003 when I first started posting to this blog.

What do you convert your USD to?

@zephyr and others, thanks again for putting up with my ranting. If I seemed livid, it was because I felt that today's slide (0.5% in 21 minutes) was not insignificant - and I had not been smart enough to diversify out of USD sufficiently because I did not believe the Fed was going to abandon the dollar so wantonly.

SP

i got something wrong on the TIPS, i think. I said:

"inflation - you get your 3% (or whatever the going rate is) on top of inflation
deflation - you only get 3%, but your money got more valuable on top of that so who cares"

in the deflationary case, i think you can actually you can go to a 0% return if the CPI justifies it (goes quite negative), but you will never lose your principal.

yes, TIPS are not where you want to be long term. but when the economy feels on the verge of something big giving way, and you don't know whether it will end up being inflationary or deflationary or both, you can do a lot worse than parking in TIPS.

If he can keep us out of a recession without sparking off inflation, then he is a genius in my book.

That's already happened. There never was any inflation and now there will be no recession.

SP,

Very few people diversified early out of USD, and I am not one of them. OO is a rare gem. He has been saying this consistently for last 2 years on this blog. I will buy him sushi and sake when I meet him in person. Because of his posts I started looking for USD hedges.

I don't recollect Jimbo's advice but he seems to have done same. There was another who first mentioned MERKX on this board and I thank him too. Forgot his handle.

But I believe that for holding your down payment in USD is not a bad option. You are still purchasing a house in USD. If one purchases a house for a lesser nominal price, then the USD devaluation hasn't affected adversely. Of course having moved out to Euro 5 years ago would be even better.

What do you convert your USD to?

Mostly foreign equities. Back in 2001 it was kind of hard to do and I had to search long and hard to find closed end funds and ADRs. Now it is much easier with ETFs. I also have a smidgen of gold and silver. About a year ago I bought a fair amount of US Blue Chips, all of which are either major oil companies or do most of their business overseas.

I actually keep my "next down payment" fund in CA Muni bonds, but I am starting to regret that choice.

Stuck,

I'm done praising Bernanke for a while ;(

This is from Calculated Risk comments. One of the better ones.

Bernanke was beaten by his parents at a young age. This is his passive-aggressive way of getting back at them.
fjr | 09.18.07 - 4:19 pm | #

>certainly what I do with mine. My 25+ year average annual compound rate of return >on invested equity has been about 26% after tax. I have been very happy with that.

Zephyr,

That's off the scale!! Are you telling me this is all from regular investing and re-investing, no IPO windfalls included or anything like that?

Yeah, this was way back in thread 58. Hard to believe we are all the way up to 515.

I guess that was only 2005 though, not 2003 like I had remembered... sorry :-D

azrob, I hope you don't believe that I think that you are a troll. I don't agree with you much, but you are here to contribute to the discussion, not just stir up sh*t.

You don't constantly flame bait just to see if you can get a response. There are a couple of people that are doing that on every thread, which I get tired of pretty quickly.

@ Dennis,

I could buy a 700 round spam can of Brown Bear 7.62x39 3 years ago. Last month at a gun show, I bought one for $160 ($170 with taxes). Today I went to my local gun dealer for another spam can and he told me that bullet prices are going up again. I was told that another spam can would be 15%-20% higher than what I paid at the gun show!

Go and get your bullets before getting priced out forever :)

I may be upgrading to an AK variant with a 75/100 rd drum from my 10 rd Yugo SKS. I then plan to flip it in 2 years and keep all the appreciation tax free. They after all are not making any new guns and prices can only go up.

Lowering the rate of return for investors is certainly not a way to prop up housing prices dependent on non guaranteed jumbo financing. That pool has just been dried up a little further. Oh well, it is still a great time to be a debtor.

The Pigmen of Wall Street:

http://www.stockmania.com/2007_09_19_archive.html

I'm disappointed. But as I look around the new landscape and take stock, I'm not entirely sure it looks much different, other than I'd hoped they'd 'rip the bandage'. Now I guess we watch them peel it off.

ING rates yesterday:

4.50% savings
5.15% 12 mo cd

ING rates today:

4.30% savings
4.90% 12 mo cd

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/09/19/BUH1S8PSN.DTL

Bay Area foreclosure activity skyrockets

It looks like we just left the inflation part of the cycle and entered the recession part. Ben says so. So it is good that we do not have large mortgage debt in this case. I forgot what my high school teacher said to do next, but I think he said have lots of cash.

I've never really been a huge fan but I've caught myself watching Glen Beck the last few nights as he's had Peter Schiff as his guest. Glen gives him plenty of free reign and it's nice to be able to hear Peter fully develop his concepts. While it's worth watching I fear Peter (like myself) is much better at identifying problems and disturbing trends than forming solutions.

(In spite of all the negative news, AFAIK the "bear funds" haven't done as well as you'd think)

Does anyone here (and I KNOW Peter has fans @ Patrick) have his performance numbers? I'd be curious to see them?

Interestingly, Emigrantdirect.com has held their savings account rate at 5.05% APY while thy have lowered there flexible term CD to 4.55% APY.

back to the Fed cut - after I've digested the news overnight, there seems to be another explanation. It's possible that the Fed sees a recession as a done deal already, and this cut is to mitigate the damage down the road. As we all know, the change in the Fed rate will not show for at least 6 months, with full effect not apparent for up to 18 months.

All the economic data available as of today sends mixed messages about the direction of the economy, but it may well be true that the Fed thinks otherwise. For instance, as we've discussed, nearly every single national housing downturn has coincided with a broad recession.

All in all, it makes me wonder if the stock market is correct in being so cheerful about the Fed rate cut. Perhaps it should be thinking, "boy, what does the Fed know that I don't know. Maybe things are worse than we all thought?"

skibum,

That's why I was having difficulty understanding so many of Zephyr's points. This isn't your garden variety rate cut. Conventional wisdom may not be much of a guide. What the St. "should" be asking (not counting MISH etc.) is WHY are we so frantically cutting rates!? That's what prompted my question about Peter Schiff's performance numbers.

I own a fund run by a "bear among bears" (Steve Lehman) and while I've kept the position it really hasn't panned out all that well. What's the answer here? I'm open!

"I find it very interesting that people can think that lowering the cost of a fundamental element of their cost of living is bad for them."

Because, Zepher, not everyone is a goddamm debtor. Lowering the cost of that "fundamental element" only allows Joe Howmuchamonth to run up asset prices and actually increase costs to savers. It also lowers the rate of return savers can get.

I would like to see house prices fall to point that I can buy what I want without having to join the bandwagon of fools who do not mind enslaving themselves to a 50 year mortgage if the payments are right. I would hate to see the current idiocy of low/no down payments, bailouts, and rate cuts cause houses to be affordable only for dual income couples who devote the major share of that dual income to house payments over a very long period. That is the trend if we have a growing part of the population that thinks large debt is a "fundamental element" of the cost of living.

Zephyr Says:
I find it very interesting that people can think that lowering the cost of a fundamental element of their cost of living is bad for them.

Ah, yes, I forgot to respond to this until headset brought it up.

When asset prices drop like a rock, then we can talk about really lowering the cost of living, and you won't find us complaining about that. An irresponsible rate-cut that prevents a slide in asset prices, while simultaneously debasing the currency to which I entrust my savings is nothing to cheer about.

I am sure you know this, so what is really interesting is that so many of your posts seem to put rather thin positive spins on this.

SP

@Headset,

Hate the debt,

not the debtor

o.k? :)

In conventional terms and under "normal" circumstances the points Zephyr makes are usually true. I don't have any problem with that.

What I question is whether these are conventional times or if there is ANYTHING normal about them? Sure we've done plenty of rate reductions over the years to thwart off recessions ( just not when we're at or near full employement and at an already reasonable cost of money!)

The comments I've heard this morning from the REIC on CNBC is that they are *not satisfied! Angelo wants ANOTHER 50 bps. and Schumer wants a TEN % raise in Fannie/Freddie lending capacity! Diana Olick?

"It's never enough, is it?" No Diana, it's not, nor IS there enough.

Since StuckInBA is sharing the love, thought I would give some back. His crystal ball was spot on in calling the end of $50 a barrel oil on this blog.
Regarding Zephyr, keep in mind that in previous threads he has stated that the fed funds rate was above its "natural" setting and needed to come down. That's why he is so calm and the rest of us are running around like madmen. He is also doubling his investments every 3 years (hey, if I was doing that, I wouldn't be worried either...) My WellsFargo puts finally went negative yesterday.
The CA city chart is up on DataQuick. Check out your favorite burg.
Mill Valley up 2.44%
Novato up 16.97%

Somebody predicted here that DOW was going to 12000 by the end of this month. Now, it looks like it is going to 14000.

@DinOR,

The Fed was trying to wean the junkie (US economy) off the junk (easy credit). It found out this summer that the withdrawl was too harsh, man. So the Fed gave a little fix yesterday to ease the pain. Now they're realizing when you give that fix, the junkie's just going to beg for more. It's called enabling.

DinOR,

Its the mindset I hate, not any person. It is bad enough that we think of a 30 year mortgage as "standard", without adding any more callousness about incurring new forms of long term debt. Higher car and house prices enabled by debt are not my idea of a good thing.

Jimbo,

I'm sorry about that, I'm 1/8-1/4 troll :-/

"Coming down" cold turkey is a real bummer man!

You're right, you're exactly right! This is the role BB has been forced into. Junkie Nursemaid! Where's the bathroom again?

@Headset,

I sure HOPE there is a major revolt against the "30 to Life" program. I see so many couples older than my wife and I signing up for massive mortgages and they're older than we are! We fully intend to have this modest place paid off by the time Mrs. DinOR leaves the workforce over the next 3-5 years. The sooner, the better.

Did anyone check out lunarpark's link to the article Bay Area foreclosure activity skyrockets. There is one county that stands out above the rest (some might call it "special"). Here's a hint: starts with Ess and ends with Eff.

Bernanke and the governors of the Fed are public officials, but the rest of it is a private entity. Must it act in the best interest of the country?

I'm with Jimbo on diversifying my holdings over several currencies. I am about 35-40% foreign investments, mostly European and some distressed Japanese real estate. They have done very well.

EBGuy,

SF has a very small sample size, we'll have to watch trends in the city. Sonoma's looking grim. Every other house up there seems to be for sale right now.

Here's the thing. So commodities and housing are the traditional hedge against inflation, but to some extent both are already very expensive. I'm with some other readers who were wondering whether it's worth bailing now when it will be expensive.

Generally you want to buy into things before they get expensive, but if you're diversifying now, haven't you already missed the boat? I'd hate to buy gold now and then watch as the dollar value of gold declines while the dollar slowly gains value over the next decade.

I guess it comes down to whether you think the dollar will lose substantially more value (buy gold) or whether you think the dollar will start to regain value (stay with the dollar).

I have no idea.

The Decision Strategist,

At this point I'd settle for "under valued". Never mind potential for upside, just not... over valued.

Hmm, the nuclear option...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml

SFWoman,
Keep us apprised of the situation in Sonoma; I do miss Athena's(?) first person reports on that region.
I am not in doubt that the Bay Area is burning down, but I hold that the price(TIC)-to-rent ratio is the metric to watch in the City. Once that goes, the rest will start to fall. ... And about the only way that is going to fall is if rents go down, which could happen for two reasons: the rest of the Bay Area has burnt to the ground (real estate falling, not actual burning) or enough new condo-to-rental inventory hits the market. Or a recession. At this point SF seems to have an inventory problem (as in, not enough).