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If you were FDR, what would you have done?


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2008 Mar 12, 6:22am   18,842 views  269 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

What would be your economic policies?

What would be your foreign policies?

What would you have done differently?

Hindsight is 20/20, but a healthy discussion is always fruitful.

Peter

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99   FuzzyMath   2008 Mar 13, 3:54am  

Only a slight bearing to the subject of the thread... but what is with the EU continuing to harass American companies?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/intel-defends-itself-before-european/story.aspx?guid=%7B4CE9A7FA%2DD792%2D4700%2D95B6%2D0AFB77094AA9%7D&siteid=yhoof

Does anyone know exactly where the money generated from these fines go? If their intention is truly to promote fair play in the marketplace, then most of the money should go to the offending company's competitors. However, I would say that is very unlikely. Anyone know?

101   Richmond   2008 Mar 13, 4:09am  

I don't know if you guys heard about the Hershey plant in Oakdale shutting down, but that is one shuttleing that pissed me off. They made Kisses and Miniatures, etc. It was a profitable operation, in the black, stable, local workforce, the whole package. The excuse in the paper was that it was running at 40% capacity. Ok, bummer number, but they closed Oakdale and moved the 40% to Mexico to up the capacity in the cheaper to run plant. It wasn't that Oakdale wasn't profitable, it was that Mexico was MORE profitable. Profit is profit but there is a limit. I would have closed the Mexico location, brought that production here and hired more bodies. Remember, Oakdale was profitable. Can you imagine the public relations boom. WE'RE KEEPING JOBS IN AMERICA! WE'RE PATRIOTIC! WE'RE AMERICA'S CHOCOLATE COMPANY!!!!!! And the list could go on for ever. They wouldn't be able to keep that stuff on the shelves.

If I want to buy foreign chocolate, I'll buy Nestle'. And I do.

NOT CHOCOLATE BUYING ADVICE

My point is that a whole lot of manufacturing could come back to the States and do very well it's just that the proft margin is so much greater when you pay people with grains of rice instead of money. That worm will turn.

102   DinOR   2008 Mar 13, 4:22am  

TOB,

Uh... that would be me. I get payed by the post! I have some extruded aluminum engine cowlings, where did you want me to set them? The living room? You got it!

I know plenty of people that work at Leatherman's (tool maker) Warn Winch (automotive/marine) and PrecisionCastParts (aviation). My wife works for a company that makes ultra-sound equipment along with scores of other products primarily re-sold to OTHER mfrs! Now we DID lose Techtronix (and basically Freightliner) but they were on their way out anyway. We have start-up/spin-off firms and St. Jude makes some pretty hi-tech stuff here too. Medicated stent technology.

So whatever.

103   Richmond   2008 Mar 13, 4:30am  

TOB,

You do have a good point.

104   Duke   2008 Mar 13, 5:09am  

Who else finds Paulson's conflict of interest on banking/housing disturbing? I wrankles me when he commnts on regulation.

While I agree it is needed, I am angered to hear it coming from a man whose personal wealth is estimated at $700 million and who made his money in sub-prime and who was only able to exercise his options at an abosulte peak price by taking his current job.

Cnogress just drug Prince, Mozilla, and O'neal into chambers. Why not Paulson?

105   DinOR   2008 Mar 13, 5:10am  

"Mexicans are 'pliant'"

I'm not saying that they aren't and I'm not saying they're not capable but my wife's company tried to out-source there to make cables. Not fiber-optic cables like she works with, just AWG copper conductor cables.

In 18 months of sending proto-types back and forth and all kinds of training and visits they were not able to turn out ONE cable that passed QC... not one. This was with the FULL support of a Fortune 500 company!

So if you can show them where they went wrong (after considerable expense) I'm sure they'd be open to hearing about it.

106   DinOR   2008 Mar 13, 5:11am  

Duke,

Hard to argue that!

107   Richmond   2008 Mar 13, 5:17am  

One of the things that will help American manufacturing is the Company Store mentality that's developing with over seas manufacturers.

I had a customer come in the shop a few days ago that needed a shaft for a machine. No biggie. It had a spline, a few seal diameters and a gear cut into it and no heat treatment. The manufacturer wanted almost $8700.00 for the thing with a six week lead time. This was at three in the afternoon. I ordered the material from the local steel house, had it by five. I started cutting at six in the morning. I had it turned, cut, and ground by one in the afternoon. All for about $1200.00. The machine was back up the next day.

In a lot of ways, we are very competative.

108   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:19am  

In the end, the average American did not profit one bit from the whole arrangement.

Average people never profit. Period.

Do you understand the concept of a ZERO SUM game?

(Hopefully, Randy will come back... )

109   OO   2008 Mar 13, 5:21am  

My biggest fear is really about the returning veterans.

The # of payday loans set up right next to GI camp has gone up exponentially in the last few years (I remember seeing a number of 95% growth in 3 years). These people saw their colleagues die, amputated, injured, or may have gone through a few nasty episodes themselves. They will feel maltreated or neglected once they come back home with no jobs waiting for them.

Worse still, the quality of US soldiers has been going down drastically precisely because of Iraq war. People with self-respect or financial options would not join the army in the last 4 years. So who joined? Gang members. Such an unique phenomenon has actually gotten lots of news coverage.

So what do we get when these veterans come home? Disgruntled, hopeless people with combat training. Tim McVeigh won't be the last home-grown terrorist.

110   Duke   2008 Mar 13, 5:34am  

If I were FDR:

1. I woud not have frozen banks accounts.
2. I would not have called loans due.
3. I would have bee pro free-trade.
4. I would not have allowed war-reperations against Germany to be so lopsided as to foment the acceptance of Hitler in the hyper-inlated Germany.

111   Richmond   2008 Mar 13, 5:34am  

I've thought about that myself. They joined the military because, in many cases, they had no options. Now they get out, very well trained in the use of guns and explosives, with no options.
Yeah, well guess what. With that kind of training, you can make your own options. Things are going to become very real.

112   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:37am  

TOB, only change is permanent.

It is vital for a society to adapt. No one deserves protection from Free Market.

(Well, it is justifiable to defend the integrity of the market, namely the banking and financial system.)

113   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:41am  

They joined the military because, in many cases, they had no options.

As I have said many times, the only way out is a dramatic tax cut to stimulate business and employment. There can be workfare-driven public projects, but the use of welfare should be massively reduced.

114   StuckInBA   2008 Mar 13, 5:42am  

skibum :

The language in DQ release is amazingly frank for their usual standard.

CR wrote a comment at the end and that captures the pathetic nature of the market so well.

If it wasn't for foreclosures, the sales number would really be awful.

Very well put.

115   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:43am  

Europe cannot possible compete with us in the long run because of their welfare state and high rate of taxation.

It is not difficult for the US to compete with the Third World. Wage is only one factor. Taxation is a big issue.

116   DinOR   2008 Mar 13, 5:46am  

I've never tried to make some broad statement saying that America's best Mfr. days are ahead of her? Have I?

This is the very group think Randy H warned about when it comes to perceptions about mfr. in general. You can call the MexMafioso all you want, they're not turning out useable product. Now our daughters will likely never work in mfr. but that's why we did it (so they won't have to)

One is well employed for a state mental h/c facility and the other is finishing school. One thing that I DO regret is that cheap labor has done away w/ the RE-manufacturing business! Talk to anyone in tires. They can ship new ones here cheaper than we can re-tread (even for heavy trucks) so now otherwise useable casings stretch to the sky.

117   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:49am  

this argument assumes one important thing, that NAFTA was some kind of inevitable natural phenomenon. It was deliberate and its drafting was sold to the public as a benefit.

I am not a fan of NAFTA because it is a form of regulated "free" trade.

I get a clear feeling that most arguing against me are part of an older age group.

Huh? I had my first Saturn Return not long ago.

118   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:50am  

Peter, did it ever occur to you that your social/economic position was perhaps obtained (or maintained) by biased policies? You speak from this position of self-assurance that what you have is yours and obtained by divine ordinance (and this includes fancy degrees).

Huh? WTF?

119   OO   2008 Mar 13, 5:54am  

Tax cut won't necessarily stimulate investment in business activities, if the other aspects of the society is f*cked up. Speculation is a much easier option for the rich to protect and grow their asset in this kind of environment. Why would I want to invest in producing anything (other than speculating on hard commodities that everyone MUST consume) with the biggest consumption machine running out of steam? Who is going to buy my stuff?

Tax cuts this time will precisely spur speculation, most probably in hard commodities. If President McCain gives more tax cut, I think my gold will head to $5000.

120   HeadSet   2008 Mar 13, 5:56am  

btw- Headset I supplied the sources but theyre in moderation-

I saw them. (Putting in multiple links gets you into moderation.) I thought you were saying that the run of the mill active duty soldier was not being paid. From my experience in the Air Force, I noticed that we got paid even when civil service did not. Your links refered to a soldier beng improperly discharged, promised benefits not being given to discharged soldiers, and a veto on increase in military pay. The first two are outrageous, I'll agree.

121   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:57am  

Tax cut won’t necessarily stimulate investment in business activities, if the other aspects of the society is f*cked up. Speculation is a much easier option for the rich to protect and grow their asset in this kind of environment.

Tax cuts include targeted credits and/or other incentives.

Tax cuts this time will precisely spur speculation, most probably in hard commodities. If President McCain gives more tax cut, I think my gold will head to $5000.

:)

122   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 5:58am  

Soldiers should be treated well. They are the heroes.

123   DinOR   2008 Mar 13, 6:01am  

Oh I don't think we're going to have big issues w/ the returning vets. Can we get off the freak-a-thon for a minute? Firstly for each guy actually manning a trigger there are about 20 support people. Cooks, clerks, corpsman and admin. types that haven't seen a rifle since the wooden mock-up they carried in boot camp.

The incident in NC was a guy that had issues prior to joining and was given a Big Chicken Dinner (Bad Conduct Discharge) What do you guys want to send to Iraq? Altar-boys? The debate team? The DOD has made major strides in helping these guys adjust when they return to "the world". Can we all get through the day without discussing gold, bailing to foreign currencies and complete societal breakdown just once!?

124   Duke   2008 Mar 13, 6:02am  

TOB
As long as you can assume that those that argue against you are older, may I ask how you would describe yourself?

125   EBGuy   2008 Mar 13, 6:05am  

The SF Chronicle has the Bay Area DQ numbers, although they have not yet been released on the DQNews website. As the kids say, "its all bad"...
The total number homes sold in the nine counties that border the bay dipped below 4,000 for the second month in a row, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla research group. In February, 3,989 new and resale houses and condos changed hands, down 36.7 percent from 6,305 from February 2007.
The median price was $548,000, down 11.6 percent from $620,000 a year ago, an a 17.6 percent drop from the peak median of $665,000 last June and July.
The median declined in every single Bay Area county in February, with all counties except Marin, San Francisco and Santa Clara recording double-digit drops. The swoon ranged from 22.3 percent in Sonoma to 2.8 percent in both Santa Clara and San Francisco.

Regarding foreclosures and SoCal, two words come to mind: critical mass. Coming soon to a BA county near you (and it ain't the bicyclists).

126   DinOR   2008 Mar 13, 6:05am  

O.K, then let's have a thread devoted to:

Gold (and how good it's been to me)

The World as we know it has ended

Armed and Deranged Vets trying to steal your GOLD!

That way we can just get it over with?

127   Richmond   2008 Mar 13, 6:08am  

Point taken. LOL!

128   DennisN   2008 Mar 13, 6:08am  

who the fk cares anyway everyone here is posting under a pseudonym

I use my real name. And I'm sure everyone knows Patrick's full name. And furthermore, everone knows Peter P's full name is Peter Pangloss.

129   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 6:09am  

why not take the market perspective here- the American people are trying to get the best value for their cannon fodder.

Many of the most profitable companies treat their employees well.

Only the military can solve problems not solvable by Free Market.

130   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 6:09am  

And furthermore, everone knows Peter P’s full name is Peter Pangloss.

Huh?

131   DennisN   2008 Mar 13, 6:12am  

Well, there's this author named Voltaire....

132   DinOR   2008 Mar 13, 6:13am  

Richmond,

If I have to "take the shaft" I'll take the $1,200 one thankyouverymuch!

Guys, "The World as we know it" goes away at the end of every day. (It's not coming back) I don't believe young people (while frustrated) are disconnecting any more than the Woodstock Generation or any other for that matter. To be challenging this crowd (we're the whistle blowers, remember).... about being delusional about what our or our children's future will look like is preaching to the choir. Enough already.

133   Malcolm   2008 Mar 13, 6:18am  

The Original Bankster Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
"Huh? WTF?
honestly your pure ‘free market’ economics ethos is a bit disconcerting. At least online, you come off as a high-school student who read Atlas Shrugged so he can look smart to his friends."

I used to tell the friend who got me to read Atlas Shrugged the same thing. He related so much with the ideology he couldn't bring himself to recognize the imperfections of a free market, and he bought into the whole 'capitalists are the providers and producers' motto. I used to tell him that there is nothing noble about being an entrepreneur pursuing your own interests, it is only the fact that a society has a net benefit from capitalism that we tolerate the social costs which each unit of production incurs. Atlas Shrugged is somewhat makebelieve. It is a skewed commentary on fairness and morality. It is definitely one sided, and business people who hide behind its lessons to advance a selfish agenda are hypocrites. Atlas Shrugged stressed the concept of reciprocity, a concept which seems alien to the modern day capitalist.

It is a good book though and has some value in the ongoing debate between individual and social interests.

134   Peter P   2008 Mar 13, 6:24am  

I used to tell him that there is nothing noble about being an entrepreneur pursuing your own interests, it is only the fact that a society has a net benefit from capitalism that we tolerate the social costs which each unit of production incurs.

Very well said. It is a mistake to glorify Capitalism.

It is just what it is.

(But it depends upon what the meaning of the word 'is' is.)

135   HARM   2008 Mar 13, 6:24am  

Can we all get through the day without discussing gold, bailing to foreign currencies and complete societal breakdown just once!?

Hey, now. point taken, but if you take away gold, FCs and ARM-ageddon, what do we have left? Sushi and Fed-bashing? :-)

136   HARM   2008 Mar 13, 6:25am  

@Peter P,

I think he meant this.

137   DennisN   2008 Mar 13, 6:27am  

I had a customer come in the shop a few days ago that needed a shaft for a machine. No biggie. It had a spline, a few seal diameters and a gear cut into it and no heat treatment.

When I was working on cars I was always amazed by what local San Jose machine shops could do. I built a Lotus 7 replica, which entailed scrounging up many driveline and brake parts. I scrounged the right rear end from a Ford Cortina GT but had to have it shortened on one side so the pumpkin was centered in the chassis. There was a guy down by the SJ airport that did this as a matter of course - both the housing and the related half-shaft - and he did it quickly and for some cheap price.

I have to admit I'm not a gloom-and-doomer myself. Somehow the English-speaking peoples have muddled through for millenia. See Churchill's 4 volume set and the recent volume 5 by Andrew Roberts. Thrift and paying attention got my grandparents through the Great Depression in good order.

138   HARM   2008 Mar 13, 6:29am  

Hey, now, let's keep it civil, not so personal, m'kay? Don't bash someone at least until you get to know him personally.

And then you can punch him in the face.

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