patrick.net

And when were faced with the prospect of being wrong we can’t respond with quasi-witty one liners that don’t mean anything.

Huh? The prospect of being wrong is not scary to me.

Life is not about being right. It is about living.

DinOR Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
"I guess what keeps me here is that I always sound “fresh” to the people I run into on a daily basis. "

I've noticed that too. It is interesting how expert we do sound to the people we encounter who've only read or watched the mainstream media on this subject. Most people have no idea how the CDOs and MBS played into the bubble. Most people have no idea how the fundamentals for housing work. Most people don't understand that not everyone is the same, no matter what happens there are always at least a few winners. The information with the collective contributions of the links make the regular readers here way ahead of the markets. It is actually quite interesting to think about how much time someone would have to spend to find all of that information on their own.

I've never read the Wall St Journal. In fact I look at people who read it in public as trying to appear informed. Honestly, I get my news right here, often times I know the news regarding housing a day before I see it on the news.

I’ve never read the Wall St Journal. In fact I look at people who read it in public as trying to appear informed.

I like FT better. It is pink.

Imagine telling your friend who just bought a home 2 years ago that you think this was the stupidest thing you’ve ever heard?

Well it's all in how you say it.

I have a friend from high school who went to law school right out of college and has been an "ambulance chaser" plaintiff's tort attorney since 1977. He's always made great gobs of money but it never seems to stick. For example, a few years ago he and some friends each put up 6 figures each to buy a racehorse from some breeders in Mexico - a "sure thing" race winner. Somehow a month or so later this horse was stolen and the cops think it ended up back in Mexico.

In early 2007 he leveraged all his assets and purchased several large commercial buildings in the LA area. He told me "LA was special and commercial real estate NEVER went down". I argued with him for a long time but he would never listen to me. I hate to think what's happening now but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up bankrupt.

So yes I would tell my friends that they are nuts (politely) and no, we all aren't heading for financial armegeddon - just the get-rich-quick types.

I found you folks during my search as to how a fast food frycook bought the 1/2 million dollar house down the street from me. I had no idea that what happened with lending could have happened at all. I'm old school. It's been quite an education.

Oh, by the way, he lost it in '07.

I think blogs facilitate much more honest exchange than real world social occasions.

Before I open my mouth at a party, I have to figure out who is banging who, who divorced who, who works for what company before I start catering my "opinions" to make them all happy, anticipating what they would like to hear rather than what I like to say. Even if you are at a rather intellectual exchange, you still need to watch carefully the repercussions of saying certain things because you don't know how it is coming back to bite you in the ass, just in case you are running for Mayor some years down the road.

Here, I don't know anybody's background and I don't care. A name is only as good as his words. If someone is consistently saying valid things, then I start to read more from that person, this is the ultimate meritocracy. One still needs to worry about credibility in the anonymous world because if you keep churning out crap, even the virtual ID will perish rather fast.

As Original Bankster is talking about the intellect on Patrick.net, I'm flipping the channels on TV. I stopped on the Ellen Degenerous (sp?) show, why I don't know, and there were a bunch of fat women tied up trying to catch marshmallows hanging from a string. That's pretty much the general intellect out there, that's probably why I keep visiting.

That's sort of my point, yes there is anonymity and people can mouth off all they want about how great they are or were at this or that but I've got my list of regulars here who know what they're talking about, even when I don't agree with someone I still respect them as bright.

Some old criticisms I remember were that this site was biased......etc. But I don't recall at anytime trying to purge out the housing bulls. I remember at times we were saying things are quiet when there weren't any critics. Genuine opinions seem to have always been welcomed in my memory.

The odd thing is that the Internet really isn't an "anonymous" forum. You can be tracked even though you think you can't. I've said many things here which, when Googled, will lead you directly to my real name, address, and phone number. I'm sure most of us here have the same thing. Administrators have access to IP addresses and can more quickly do the same, or bar offending trolls.

TOB,

can you please give me some links to these readings?

What gives me the biggest kick is when someone makes a statement or prediction that is so contrary to what society,in general, is gnawing on and it comes true. That will never get old.

A lot of this is as simple as cookies and databases. When I go onto Amazon, they always suggest books and music which are frighteningly close to my political or cultural tastes. And nowadays cookies are "global". When I go to a newspaper's website which I haven't read before, they already know what city I live in.

Here is a reading for you, the H3 data that was just released.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

HELP UP Paul Adolph Volcker, You are our only Hope!

As far as being anonymous goes -

I've always believed that if you wouldn't say it on CNN, don't say it here.
They are watching

I know anyone can be tracked down. By anonymous I just mean that you can say something that you wouldn't normally say in a pc world. I don't think people should hide behind their computers and spout garbage, I just mean someone can say a race related comment, or a gay comment, or a political policy comment and not A, get their ass kicked or B, get fired or sued C, offend or insult someone personally.

For instance, I'm not going to mouth off about scumbag brokers at my friend's cocktail party full of brokers and agents, I'm going to come here and tell everyone that I was at this gathering and this is what I heard...

I am more PC here than in real life.

In a nutshell, it is a level playing field. No one can outshout, or use a position of power, or intimidate another here. It is the most impartial way to exchange ideas. The only way to gain respect here is with sound points unlike most other venues where you would find yourself debating something.

When I go onto Amazon, they always suggest books and music which are frighteningly close to my political or cultural tastes.

Let me guess... Naked Lunch and Das Kapital?
(kidding)

TOB,

I only read Techcrunch to know the latest that people are talking about. Sometimes it is hard to keep abreast of the web2.0 craps.

However, I think the general direction of web advertising is perhaps, wrong, if you look at the big picture. It is so consumption driven, but American consumers are running outta dough and credit. No matter what kind of gimmick you offer, outta dough is outta dough.

The focus should be learning, not spending.

I think Amazon uses your shopping history there, which is fair game IMO.

Peter P Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
"I am more PC here than in real life."

That doesn't surprise me. I tend to look at people here as peers in a way since we all have a similar interest, therefore I'm probably a little more thoughful than I would be anywhere else. I sometimes feel like I am in a virtual graduate class. I've definitely been influenced by what people say here.

American consumers are running outta dough and credit.

Again, American consumers are not running out of recklessness.

AMZN has the most sophisticated user manipulation, perhaps because Bezos himself was a computer science major. They really understand how to use human being as their search tools rather than just relying on machine search.

I'd say AMZN represents the best practice of the industry. As for the facebooks of the world, I still don't understand their biz model. I don't think they have one, or will come up with one in time before this web 2.0 bubble goes away.

I respect everyone here and I feel the need to see everyone as a friend.

I believe that AMZN pioneered the model of "users who viewed this also viewed that", or "users who bought this also bought that". Brilliant.

The worst is probably ebay. I know someone who specializes in creating profile for a seller. The seller pays the "profile creator" to do thousands of fake transactions so as to get a stellar 99.99% positive user rating. One can also repair the rating by hiring such service.

That's why I never buy anything from eBay, cannot trust the seller.

Amazon.com is simply amazing. But the Internet cannot accommodate many e-businesses like that.

That’s why I never buy anything from eBay, cannot trust the seller.

I bought 4 laptops from eBay. No problem so far.

Wikipedia is a highly patrolled community by random users. I have a PR friend who constantly wants to edit articles regarding products he is hired for quite subtly, and every day, he has to struggle with his article being edited out because it is not considered "impartial" by other users.

If you have an obscure product that nobody cares about, sure you can do whatever with wikipedia entry. If you want to change some high profile articles in wikipedia, forget about it, there are literally hundreds of users watching it around the clock.

TOB, life is a game. Why are you against gaming?

Malcolm,

Yeah, I see what you mean. There is that subtle disconnect that allows us to be more free with our speech. Obviously, I'm not going to stand on the corner of 9th and Bissle and scream the "N" word. But at the same time, I wouldn't vehemently denounce the government in this forum either.

Just in case their watching --- I love you Mr. Government person. You are my friend. No black helicopters, please.

If you have an obscure product that nobody cares about, sure you can do whatever with wikipedia entry.

I thought astrid had issues with their encyclopedists.

User-volunteered data is of very poor quality. I never input anything remotely close to my real profile, I forged birth date, irrelevant zip codes, income and whatnot, and I know lots of people are doing it, for the fear of identity theft. Most people I know have dedicated email addresses that is not linked to their main email address just for signing up things. Those advertising companies focusing on user volunteered data are just fooling themselves.

so im kind of like a super-sheep, i tell the other sheep where the wolves are. BAAAA!

If they listen to you they are not sheep. :)

IMO "Web 2.0" is one of the most undefined terms ever invented.

Amazon must really be freaked out by me since I'm a dictionary-definition "intellectual": I read books of all points of view. For example, in the field of religion, I have copies of various bibles, book of mormon, koran, bhagavad gita, and so forth. I have copies of das kapital, mein kamph, the federalist papers, the prince, and many other wing-dingy political tracts.

I'm sure I show up on various govenment scans of "radical terrorist" suspects until they find out who I am. I have been cleared by all the military and "other" :) government agencies as a trustworthy person of the highest level, including being put on a 6-hour lifestyle polygraph fishing expedition.

Peter, I bought my Boxster on Ebay. My friends thought I was nuts!

" If he does it, he's in."

You mean that all I have to be is a weasel and I get a promotion. Man, I have been doing this life thing backwards.

You forget. I'm now retired. I don't care about that stuff anymore.