patrick.net

As far as being anonymous goes -

I've always believed that if you wouldn't say it on CNN, don't say it here.
They are watching

I know anyone can be tracked down. By anonymous I just mean that you can say something that you wouldn't normally say in a pc world. I don't think people should hide behind their computers and spout garbage, I just mean someone can say a race related comment, or a gay comment, or a political policy comment and not A, get their ass kicked or B, get fired or sued C, offend or insult someone personally.

For instance, I'm not going to mouth off about scumbag brokers at my friend's cocktail party full of brokers and agents, I'm going to come here and tell everyone that I was at this gathering and this is what I heard...

I am more PC here than in real life.

In a nutshell, it is a level playing field. No one can outshout, or use a position of power, or intimidate another here. It is the most impartial way to exchange ideas. The only way to gain respect here is with sound points unlike most other venues where you would find yourself debating something.

When I go onto Amazon, they always suggest books and music which are frighteningly close to my political or cultural tastes.

Let me guess... Naked Lunch and Das Kapital?
(kidding)

TOB,

I only read Techcrunch to know the latest that people are talking about. Sometimes it is hard to keep abreast of the web2.0 craps.

However, I think the general direction of web advertising is perhaps, wrong, if you look at the big picture. It is so consumption driven, but American consumers are running outta dough and credit. No matter what kind of gimmick you offer, outta dough is outta dough.

The focus should be learning, not spending.

I think Amazon uses your shopping history there, which is fair game IMO.

Peter P Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
"I am more PC here than in real life."

That doesn't surprise me. I tend to look at people here as peers in a way since we all have a similar interest, therefore I'm probably a little more thoughful than I would be anywhere else. I sometimes feel like I am in a virtual graduate class. I've definitely been influenced by what people say here.

American consumers are running outta dough and credit.

Again, American consumers are not running out of recklessness.

AMZN has the most sophisticated user manipulation, perhaps because Bezos himself was a computer science major. They really understand how to use human being as their search tools rather than just relying on machine search.

I'd say AMZN represents the best practice of the industry. As for the facebooks of the world, I still don't understand their biz model. I don't think they have one, or will come up with one in time before this web 2.0 bubble goes away.

I respect everyone here and I feel the need to see everyone as a friend.

I believe that AMZN pioneered the model of "users who viewed this also viewed that", or "users who bought this also bought that". Brilliant.

The worst is probably ebay. I know someone who specializes in creating profile for a seller. The seller pays the "profile creator" to do thousands of fake transactions so as to get a stellar 99.99% positive user rating. One can also repair the rating by hiring such service.

That's why I never buy anything from eBay, cannot trust the seller.

Amazon.com is simply amazing. But the Internet cannot accommodate many e-businesses like that.

That’s why I never buy anything from eBay, cannot trust the seller.

I bought 4 laptops from eBay. No problem so far.

Wikipedia is a highly patrolled community by random users. I have a PR friend who constantly wants to edit articles regarding products he is hired for quite subtly, and every day, he has to struggle with his article being edited out because it is not considered "impartial" by other users.

If you have an obscure product that nobody cares about, sure you can do whatever with wikipedia entry. If you want to change some high profile articles in wikipedia, forget about it, there are literally hundreds of users watching it around the clock.

TOB, life is a game. Why are you against gaming?

Malcolm,

Yeah, I see what you mean. There is that subtle disconnect that allows us to be more free with our speech. Obviously, I'm not going to stand on the corner of 9th and Bissle and scream the "N" word. But at the same time, I wouldn't vehemently denounce the government in this forum either.

Just in case their watching --- I love you Mr. Government person. You are my friend. No black helicopters, please.

If you have an obscure product that nobody cares about, sure you can do whatever with wikipedia entry.

I thought astrid had issues with their encyclopedists.

User-volunteered data is of very poor quality. I never input anything remotely close to my real profile, I forged birth date, irrelevant zip codes, income and whatnot, and I know lots of people are doing it, for the fear of identity theft. Most people I know have dedicated email addresses that is not linked to their main email address just for signing up things. Those advertising companies focusing on user volunteered data are just fooling themselves.

so im kind of like a super-sheep, i tell the other sheep where the wolves are. BAAAA!

If they listen to you they are not sheep. :)

IMO "Web 2.0" is one of the most undefined terms ever invented.

Amazon must really be freaked out by me since I'm a dictionary-definition "intellectual": I read books of all points of view. For example, in the field of religion, I have copies of various bibles, book of mormon, koran, bhagavad gita, and so forth. I have copies of das kapital, mein kamph, the federalist papers, the prince, and many other wing-dingy political tracts.

I'm sure I show up on various govenment scans of "radical terrorist" suspects until they find out who I am. I have been cleared by all the military and "other" :) government agencies as a trustworthy person of the highest level, including being put on a 6-hour lifestyle polygraph fishing expedition.

Peter, I bought my Boxster on Ebay. My friends thought I was nuts!

" If he does it, he's in."

You mean that all I have to be is a weasel and I get a promotion. Man, I have been doing this life thing backwards.

You forget. I'm now retired. I don't care about that stuff anymore.

The DQ Guys are even more pathetic than NAR.

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080313.aspx

But it's not realistic to think many sellers are going to drop a $600,000 or $700,000 asking price down to $550,000 just so a buyer can finance with a conforming loan. We can only conclude that a lot of activity is just on hold, hence the spectacularly low sales counts," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

Yes, Mr. Prentice, if you keep imagining that price declines will not happen, then they will not happen. It's all in the attitude. Pretend that things are fine, and they will remain fine.

"With the Federal Reserve trying to pour Draino into the lending system, it will be interesting to see how things play out if jumbo financing does come back online. Theoretically, there could be enough pent up demand, enough catch-up activity at the high end, to result in a statistically bizarre record median home price," he said.

Pent-up demand ? This pent-up demand has been going on for years now. It's still in the pent-up mode ? Dude, this was a phony demand. It was all created out of thin air by excessively leveraged debt market.

And that phony demand is not coming back. People do not get any more funny money to play monopoly. Now it has to come out of their paycheck. So keep dreaming. Keep singing songs that please your masters. It's entertainment to us as well.

@siba,
The mildly funny thing is that much of the Bay Area report from DQ is cut-and-pasted from the So Cal report. They are sure getting desperate.

We are going to find out soon that raising conforming loan limits is not going to be a panacea. There's just not that much more demand left.

It is interesting that sales volume was actually UP in SF proper. I wonder what's up w/ dat?

TOB,

What you say actually makes perfect sense to me. I worked for a company for years that had the sleaziest management. I would watch America's Most Wanted to see if they would show up. Now I see the logic. The only people that were safe in that company were the board and that was questionable.

We should not kid ourselves though. Of course raising conforming loan limits will have some effects at least for the short term.

I believe there is some pent-up demand. There may even be a small rebound in some prime Bay Area housing markets.

However, bear markets are full of sucker rallies.

I’ll work Voltaire and the origins of the word cretin into conversation and people might actually mistake me for being ’somewhat’ sophisticated

Or ignorant, if you repeat the origin of the word "cretin" described above. The word has nothing to do with Crete. It comes from French, and is an abberation of a French term for Christian. That is, despite his handicaps he is still "Christian." Sort of how we us the word "special" for a retarded person today.

Peter P :

Will increasing the conforming loan limit offset the -ves of psychology and tighter credit conditions ? If yes, why do you think so ? I would argue that all that will happen with the increasing of limit is a little bit of drop in the interest rate. Would you be saying the same thing if interest rates had dropped by 1% ? This has so far moved beyond the howmuchamonth payment thinking. People are thinking how much they will lose by buying now.

And what is this pent-up demand you talk about ? Of course, there will always be demand and every house can be sold in a day if priced right. But pent-up demand means to me that an above normal group size buyers *who are willing and able* waiting on the sidelines. The sales that I see happening are happening not because the buyer saved $250 on monthly mortgage, but because they bought the house 80K below asking.

There is no pent up demand. There is a shortage of qualified, able buyers at these priced. Period.

* at these prices

There is no pent up demand. There is a shortage of qualified, able buyers at these priced. Period.

Many on this board belong to this group, and any of us may capitulate at any point. ;)

This has so far moved beyond the howmuchamonth payment thinking. People are thinking how much they will lose by buying now.

In prime areas, people still have the will to buy for now. Some buyers were sidelined because of the jumbo loan issue. The new conforming limit will surely enable these buyers.

I would argue that all that will happen with the increasing of limit is a little bit of drop in the interest rate.

There seems to be an improvement of 50 - 100 basis point over the old jumbo. This is not insignificant.

1% is $600/month for a 720K mortgage.

(Alternatively, with the same payment, how much more can they now afford?)

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2008/03/if_the_pluggedin_readers_are_right_jumboconforming_loan.html

(Since Randy is not back yet I have to be the voice of reason from time to time.)

Many on this board belong to this group, and any of us may capitulate at any point. ;)

Are all the 12 of us going to clear the Bay Area inventory ?

Please dude. The market started falling before the rates started going up. You of all people understand that this is not an interest rate problem, this is a solvency/servicing problem.

BTW, that Paulson guy is pretty proactive, won't you say. He is going to get tougher on mortgage brokers. I am so glad that he is going to save me from all the predatory lenders.

he leveraged all his assets

That has to be the most eloquent wat of saying "hocked" that I've ever heard.

The Original Bankster Says:
re: manufacturing. So we believe govt data when were trying to prove a point (re. SP’s very official looking list)

Here is the source for trade information -

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/press.html

It is independently verified US Gov data, so please be warned that it is not as trustworthy as The Original Bankster's data. :-)