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Equity gains more than wiped out by equity loans


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2008 Apr 2, 1:20am   28,764 views  317 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

dodo

From a reader:

Americans now own less than 50% of their home for the first time in many years. What I did not hear in the press is that this percentage was reported AFTER home values had increased astronomically. That is, as home prices shot upward, many Americans chased those zooming home prices by adding debt, not by rejoicing that they now owned a larger fraction of their home. To me, the story is not that Americans now own less than 50% of their home, but that this is true after home prices have skyrocketed in recent years, outstripped by debt rising even more rapidly. Consider the implications to baby boomers who hoped to retire soon, but who have already extracted a large fraction of the true equity in their homes and spent it.

This is pretty amazing. After the biggest runup in prices ever, owners managed to blow all of that equity, and then some. And now they've got rapidly declining prices on top of that.

Patrick

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182   DinOR   2008 Apr 4, 3:03am  

Then you find out "Ramone" is a midget.

Oh Ramone!

Oh Ramone!

183   SP   2008 Apr 4, 3:03am  

sa Says:
I did read some time back: Around 2-3 Million divorces every year in US.

I figure that number will go up this year - take away the bubble-goggles and a lot of people will realize their dreams aren't quite coming true - and in the grand tradition of married couples everywhere, they will blame their problems on spouse. :-)

I already know of one couple (neighbor of a friend) who bought last year in Saratoga (iffy neighborhood, near the YMCA). It was one of those "Suzanne" cases, where the wife pushed and finally they caved in last summer. Husband got his layoff notice in January. Sometime in February, cops were called in for a domestic dispute. Husband moved out. Real Cinderella story, circa 12.01 AM.

184   SP   2008 Apr 4, 3:05am  

BTW: Bubble-Goggles (tm)

185   DinOR   2008 Apr 4, 3:07am  

I knew a guy that got divorced after like 13 years and after his "southern belle" wife raked him over the coals she bought a house 3 doors down. She CONSTANTLY came over when we were jamming on electric guitars interrupting for this, that or the other trivial thing.

(I secretly suspected she called him by her new (and fit) live-in boyfriend's name just to chap his ass)

The guy was an FDIC auditor for crissakes! What could he possibly done that was so wrong!?

186   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Apr 4, 3:30am  

lol @ DinOR

188   OO   2008 Apr 4, 3:37am  

Divorce rate went up quite a bit in Japan after the bubble popped. But we are already at 50%+ divorce rate, anyone is predicting 80% by the time we are done with depression?

That will be fun, when we give wedding gift, we will give his and her wedding gift, just to save them a few bucks over dispute of who gets what.

189   FormerAptBroker   2008 Apr 4, 3:44am  

DinOR Says:

> We had two young quad riders in Christmas Valley riding
> double and hit a sudden drop off. The 20 year old girl met
> a rock (lots of those out there) face first and died on the spot.
> The guy is a vegetable. The Consumer Federation is moving
> to have them outlawed. They’ve had their chance to act
> responsibly.

Liberals can’t seem to understand that things like guns and quad runners are not the problem it is stupid people. Since stupid people tend to vote for liberal politicians they rarely make any laws (like life in prison for gun crimes or loss of a quad runner for illegal use) to punish the stupid people who vote for them. One of these days some liberal politician is going to discover that men in Nike high top sneakers are shooting each other and outlaw Nike high tops to “solve” the problem…

190   FormerAptBroker   2008 Apr 4, 3:49am  

OO Says:

> Divorce rate went up quite a bit in Japan after the
> bubble popped. But we are already at 50%+ divorce
> rate, anyone is predicting 80% by the time we are
> done with depression?

Over 50% of “marriages” end in divorce but a lot less than 50% of “people” get divorced (many people get divorced many times). I just read a study that people with college degrees who get married after 26 years old and come from intact families of the same faith have just under a 10% divorce rate…

191   DinOR   2008 Apr 4, 3:53am  

NVR,

Oh.. he finally got her goat. He dated this Thai gal whose name I think translated to "I have more sex on accident than most people do on PURPOSE!"

Lord, what a total hottie. Since my wife is asian too they kind of hit it off. I remember Mrs. DinOR saying "You know we really talked a lot and the first thing that struck me is just what a nice person she is".

Yeah honey (that's the first thing that struck me too!) :)

I knew if "I" was thinking "What a lucky guy!" his X was torturing herself endlessly.

192   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 3:53am  

Liberals can’t seem to understand that things like guns and quad runners are not the problem it is stupid people.

Perhaps because calling people stupid is "politically incorrect."

Liberal Extremism is not a disease. It is a crime against Nature.

like life in prison for gun crimes or loss of a quad runner for illegal use

Life sentences cost too much. We should bring back the hangman.

On the other hand, youth stupidity is a product of mandatory education.

193   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Apr 4, 3:55am  

The only reason the DOW is not at or below 10,000 right now is the influence of the invisible hand in mitigating a cascade of self reinforcing FEAR that has gripped the markets numerous times.

Unsure of the glasses through which history will judge their efforts, but measured by avoidance of margin call wealth cascading wealth destruction their efforts have been an unqualified success. Clearly they prefer not to advertise this success lest the sheeple become aware of added complexity of the casino rigged game.

Housing prices downward slide will be the causal factor dragging down the DOW. As strange as it may seen, it is overlooked that about 90% of homeowners do not think "their" house has lost any value whatsoever. (This was result of survey I read a month back or so, unfortunately no longer have the reference. It went by unnoticed here but think I found it on P's front page)

As house prices really deteriorate in earnest, clearly the worse is yet to come, we will see the herd protecting assets despite amateur comprehension of market vis a vis Cramer Orman educations. Pleas to stay put long term and not panic will go unheeded. Despite low returns, fear will take hold and money will move out. Job loss and fear of job loss will move money out.

The big smart money is sitting firmly on the sideline until the trickle of blood in the streets turns into a river.

And of course fundamentals will continue to deteriorate. The slow parade of bad news will continue unabated. Earning shockers coming across most sectors. Shareholder pressure to reduce human capital expense will create a *positive* feedback loop.

194   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 3:57am  

I just read a study that people with college degrees who get married after 26 years old and come from intact families of the same faith have just under a 10% divorce rate…

Faith is the most important part. Although I have zero faith in the parasite called humanity, I have absolute faith in the Supreme Being and myself.

195   DinOR   2008 Apr 4, 3:59am  

FAB,

Point taken. I 'did' say, have at it (as long as they're *not bothering anyone else) We'll send the meat wagon 'round and pick up the pieces.

It's just that if you talk to europeans they really don't have any concept of what "off-roading" is all about? There really aren't any public lands to go out there and "tear it up". Don't get me wrong, I go out to Christmas Valley w/ friends too, but when your eyes look like to p!ss holes in the snow (time to give it up!)

196   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 4:00am  

Isn't it true that there are no stupid questions - only stupid people? :)

I know that beer-goggles make women appear more attractive. Do bubble-goggles have the opposite effect?

197   StuckInBA   2008 Apr 4, 4:00am  

He dated this Thai gal whose name I think translated to “I have more sex on accident than most people do on PURPOSE!”

Oh man :-)) You are on a roll today Mr. !

198   DinOR   2008 Apr 4, 4:10am  

StuckInBA,

I'll never forget the first time my buddy introduced me to her. The Portland Beavers (Triple A) game was about ready to start and I was "briskly" approaching the bar at the club. She was wearing a white halter top and skin-tight low rise jeans and since I knew my buddy couldn't land a hot chick (no matter HOW much he made) I... thought she was a waitress!

Dumb.

I just about opened my big dumb mouth to say "I'll have TWO Buds" and my buddy caught me and said "D! I'd like you to meet..." Oh thank GOD! I've never been drunk enough to address a friend's date as a bar maid and I hope I never do! :)

199   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 4:32am  

Isn’t it true that there are no stupid questions - only stupid people?

The only stupid "question" is not asking. :)

200   sa   2008 Apr 4, 4:52am  

What's WAMU going to be? Countrywide or Bear?

201   Duke   2008 Apr 4, 6:12am  

Countrywide was eaten by BofA
Bear was eaten by JP
WaMu will be Wells?

Some arranged marriage is out there. Not sure who is one of the stronger ones left.

202   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 6:31am  

A Poverty Czar?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/us/politics/04cnd-campaign.html?hp

We need a cabinet-level Pancake Czar too!

Free Market is the best weapon in the War Against Poverty.

203   Malcolm   2008 Apr 4, 6:40am  

DennisN Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 11:00 am
"Do bubble-goggles have the opposite effect?"

Yes, during the bubble unattractive men seem attractive to pretty women, when it pops its like they sober up and realize they are just with a bald guy who is now even poorer than the guys they turned their noses up at before. You gotta love our society.

204   Malcolm   2008 Apr 4, 6:45am  

sa Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 10:01 am
"Malcolm,
It’s fair for the person who want to be done with the house and ready to take whatever comes/goes with it. It may be a little unfair for one who wants to hold out. But then, you are not sure how long it’s going to take to get good price. I think, it’s fair to both of them if they can agree on a reasonable time frame of 3-6 months and be happy with they can get."

No doubt, but when there is no agreement and some guy was happy with his house before and now has to sell it because some gold digger is abusing a no fault state's divorce system then it seems like it is a sucky situation to be in. Most things can be worked out when reasonable people have an open dialogue, it's when someone is forced to take the short end of the stick that I become concerned.

205   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 6:49am  

No fault divorces should be outlawed. If there was no fault there would be no justification for a divorce.

206   EBGuy   2008 Apr 4, 7:20am  

WaMu will be Wells?
Wells is busy building up its war chest for the acquisition.

Wells Fargo customers will have to dig deeper into their pocket when taking money out of another financial institution's ATMs.
The San Francisco bank raised the fee this week by 50 cents to $2.50.
That fee is in addition to the charge imposed by the owner of the ATM. So a Wells customer pulling twenty bucks out of an ATM at a Bank of America branch will pay more than a fourth of that amount to the two banks: $2.50 to Wells and $3 to BofA.

Life will get interesting when we only have a handful of banks to choose from.

207   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 8:12am  

DinOR,

You think you almost committed a faux pas?

When I moved into my house here, I went over and rang the bell on my new neighbor's house. What appeared to be a teenage girl answered the door. I almost asked "is your mother at home" but for some reason didn't. It turns out she is the lady of the house and has 3 kids, the oldest of which is 4.

Man some of these Mormon brides sure look young.

208   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 8:21am  

Damned. Hillbilly raked in $109 Million since 2000.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080404/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_taxes;_ylt=Ah1rs9.CEIO1ctNPJVbdYe6s0NUE

Why would you put up with politics when you could just have such a wonderful life with that much scratch?

209   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 8:37am  

Why would you put up with politics when you could just have such a wonderful life with that much scratch?

The reflexivity of money and power?

Money brings power.
Power brings money.

210   Brand165   2008 Apr 4, 11:08am  

Why would you put up with politics when you could just have such a wonderful life with that much scratch?

Everybody's gotta have a hobby. Plus the White House stocks sweet... uh, cigars. Yeehawww!

211   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 11:10am  

How about this? The former CEO of Bare Sterns donated huge amounts of money so poor old guys could get free Viagra.

www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/weekinreview/30word.html?pagewanted=2&ref=weekinreview

Alan C. Greenberg bettered his own life by becoming rich on Wall Street, and yesterday he gave away $1 million of that money to better the lives of other aging men in a very specific way: He will pay for Viagra prescriptions for people who cannot afford them.

“I guess you could say I’m kind of into basics,” said Mr. Greenberg, 70, the chairman of Bear, Stearns Companies, who received a $20 million bonus last year.

212   SP   2008 Apr 4, 11:27am  

DennisN asked: Do bubble-goggles have the opposite effect?

Bubble-Goggles (tm) distort everything you see, especially about yourself.

Debt feels like wealth.

Your middle-aged spouse looks reasonably dashing in [his shiny new Boxster] / [her shiny new SUV].

Your kids seem to bother you less because you buy them a new video-game "system" every year. And they seem cuter because you dress them in designer duds.

Your crappy tv-shows look better because you are watching them on that new plasma tv that you bought on a delayed payment plan.

Then, one day, you bump into reality and get the Bubble-Goggles (tm) knocked off... and realize you are married to a middle-aged, overweight, unattractive no-hoper with a bad attitude, your kids are a bunch of spoilt brats with no sense of responsibility, and that house you bought is now worth a little less than what you owe. And you, you aren't so hot yourself...

213   SP   2008 Apr 4, 11:28am  

... and oh yeah, I almost forgot the most important thing... you aren't the real-estate tycoon that you fancied yourself to be.

214   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 12:52pm  

In separate statements Friday morning, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama supported another stimulus package and an extension of unemployment benefits, among other measures. In contrast, John McCain, acknowledging that “many Americans are hurting,” said that lower taxes and less regulation would generate jobs.

“People have been focused on the housing crisis, and rightly so,” said Andrew Stettner, a policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project, “but now the deterioration in the job market should be demanding much more attention from policy makers.”

215   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 12:55pm  

Parul Vora, 28, who holds a master’s degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, thought she was immune to unemployment — until Yahoo laid her off recently as a researcher in San Francisco earning in the low six figures.

“To me, the layoff was an introduction to the dark side of corporate life,” Ms. Vora said. “It was a reminder that at the end of the day, you are doing breakthrough research for a company that is making decisions about your life, and you have no control over those decisions.”

216   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 12:56pm  

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is calling on President Bush to work with Congress on another economic stimulus package in light of the disastrous Labor Department report that 80,000 Americans lost jobs last month.

"Today"s disturbing unemployment numbers, combined with (Fed) Chairman (Ben) Bernanke’s recession warning, and threats to our standard living because of the rising costs of gas, groceries and health care compels the president to work with Congress on a second stimulus package to get our economy back on track, create jobs, and speed assistance to families struggling to make ends meet," Pelosi said in a written statement.

Pelosi added, "When congressional leaders meet with the president next week, I will urge him to refocus his attention on America's economy and to again work in a bipartisan manner on a new stimulus package. We need to work together to restore consumer and market confidence, to assist millions of Americans threatened with the loss of their homes, and to help families meet the rising costs of necessities."

217   Wade Young   2008 Apr 4, 12:58pm  

StuckinBA--

People are going to have to work until they die, as they are not preparing otherwise. They younger people will learn from that ... then more prosperity, then the cycle will repeat itself.

218   Brand165   2008 Apr 4, 1:38pm  

Parul Vora, 28... earning in the low six figures.

“To me, the layoff was an introduction to the dark side of corporate life,” Ms. Vora said. “It was a reminder that at the end of the day, you are doing breakthrough research for a company that is making decisions about your life, and you have no control over those decisions.”

You know what I'm tired of? People who think they have no control over their own lives. Working at Yahoo is a choice. They provide you with a six-figure salary and possibly some interesting research topics, and in exchange you provide your hard work and intellect. There is no guarantee expressed or implied. You chose this exchange. Period. The end.

People hate it when their carefully laid plans are disrupted, but they wouldn't hesitate to ditch Yahoo if they found something better (where "better" is defined as worthwhile enough to create a departure, otherwise it's not really "better" or the person is a fool). It's awfully hard to feel sorry for someone who makes more in a year than Joe SixPack's entire net worth.

Now that snippet didn't mention a sinking mortgage, so why do I bring this up? I'm honestly tired of hearing about all the couples in Florida, Arizona, California and other areas that are "victims" of the housing bubble. So if it all goes well, you're a brilliant winner, and if it doesn't go well, then you're a "victim" and we should help you out? Apparently nobody cares to comprehend that they are taking a risk when they sign up for a mortgage that they can only afford under a very specific set of circumstances--a high paying job in a particular area, two incomes, no major expenses, a big forthcoming inheritance, a pick-a-payment loan. There is an awesome Demotivator (tm) named Overconfidence that says: "Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you could survive the odds beating you."

Yeah. Exactly.

Taking such a risk is a choice. I believe that people should be thoroughly informed about their choices. If they need help understanding the potential consequences, then perhaps we should provide our fellow citizens with an impartial, high-quality information source. We should mitigate future housing bubbles by making sure that every single high school graduate in this country understands the different types of mortgages and is literate in reading contracts (or in retaining a lawyer). All graduates must understand the legal roles of each party in typical real estate, medical, employment, marriage, insurance and contract transactions. Or perhaps these aspects should all be handled like driver's licenses--all these things are priveleges, and there is a minimum expectation by your fellow citizens that you can conclusively demonstrate your understanding of the basic principles before we allow you to proceed. All the MSM talk is about regulating the banks... well, layering strict safety requirements onto car companies can't prevent people from being shitty drivers. Our society needs to work both ends of this problem with a thorough, long-term mindset. If we don't properly educate our citizens, then we'll just repeat this debacle in another form.

As for Parul Vora--the "dark side" of Privelege is Consequence. Welcome to Real Life. :twisted:

219   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 2:18pm  

>> Working at Yahoo is a choice.

I agree. I joined Yahoo Platform Engineering in 2006 for the hot shot Panama project. I could not take lax culture, high talk of competing with Google and politics more than five months. I quit to be a manager in a small company. Now I am a Senior Manager in a public company in San Jose.

When I joined, Yahoo share price was 42. When I left, it was 24.

220   Malcolm   2008 Apr 4, 2:34pm  

That's a pretty cool story PermaRenter.

221   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 5:48pm  

People who think they have no control over their own lives. Working at Yahoo is a choice. They provide you with a six-figure salary and possibly some interesting research topics, and in exchange you provide your hard work and intellect. There is no guarantee expressed or implied.

I've had to be flexible all my life. My first go at grad school was in a physics PhD program which I found not to my liking. I got out with an MA and had to scrounge around for a job. I started at Bell Aero as a circuit designer and after performing well I leveraged that into a much better paying gig at LMSC.

Normal job progression in defense is from detailed designer to systems engineer and finally (around age 40) into project management. Unfortunately for me, right about the time I would have been promoted into management the USSR broke up and the defense industry went into a decade-long tailspin.

So I cashed in my 401(k) funds and put myself through law school, training myself for a good paying gig as a patent attorney. I was able to leverage a broad-but-shallow knowlege of many engineering disciplines into a new career.

People who think a "hot" college degree entitles them to a lifetime hot job are deluding themselves. Sometimes you have to re-invent yourself several times over a career.

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