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Equity gains more than wiped out by equity loans


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2008 Apr 2, 1:20am   28,717 views  317 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

dodo

From a reader:

Americans now own less than 50% of their home for the first time in many years. What I did not hear in the press is that this percentage was reported AFTER home values had increased astronomically. That is, as home prices shot upward, many Americans chased those zooming home prices by adding debt, not by rejoicing that they now owned a larger fraction of their home. To me, the story is not that Americans now own less than 50% of their home, but that this is true after home prices have skyrocketed in recent years, outstripped by debt rising even more rapidly. Consider the implications to baby boomers who hoped to retire soon, but who have already extracted a large fraction of the true equity in their homes and spent it.

This is pretty amazing. After the biggest runup in prices ever, owners managed to blow all of that equity, and then some. And now they've got rapidly declining prices on top of that.

Patrick

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200   sa   2008 Apr 4, 4:52am  

What's WAMU going to be? Countrywide or Bear?

201   Duke   2008 Apr 4, 6:12am  

Countrywide was eaten by BofA
Bear was eaten by JP
WaMu will be Wells?

Some arranged marriage is out there. Not sure who is one of the stronger ones left.

202   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 6:31am  

A Poverty Czar?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/us/politics/04cnd-campaign.html?hp

We need a cabinet-level Pancake Czar too!

Free Market is the best weapon in the War Against Poverty.

203   Malcolm   2008 Apr 4, 6:40am  

DennisN Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 11:00 am
"Do bubble-goggles have the opposite effect?"

Yes, during the bubble unattractive men seem attractive to pretty women, when it pops its like they sober up and realize they are just with a bald guy who is now even poorer than the guys they turned their noses up at before. You gotta love our society.

204   Malcolm   2008 Apr 4, 6:45am  

sa Says:
April 4th, 2008 at 10:01 am
"Malcolm,
It’s fair for the person who want to be done with the house and ready to take whatever comes/goes with it. It may be a little unfair for one who wants to hold out. But then, you are not sure how long it’s going to take to get good price. I think, it’s fair to both of them if they can agree on a reasonable time frame of 3-6 months and be happy with they can get."

No doubt, but when there is no agreement and some guy was happy with his house before and now has to sell it because some gold digger is abusing a no fault state's divorce system then it seems like it is a sucky situation to be in. Most things can be worked out when reasonable people have an open dialogue, it's when someone is forced to take the short end of the stick that I become concerned.

205   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 6:49am  

No fault divorces should be outlawed. If there was no fault there would be no justification for a divorce.

206   EBGuy   2008 Apr 4, 7:20am  

WaMu will be Wells?
Wells is busy building up its war chest for the acquisition.

Wells Fargo customers will have to dig deeper into their pocket when taking money out of another financial institution's ATMs.
The San Francisco bank raised the fee this week by 50 cents to $2.50.
That fee is in addition to the charge imposed by the owner of the ATM. So a Wells customer pulling twenty bucks out of an ATM at a Bank of America branch will pay more than a fourth of that amount to the two banks: $2.50 to Wells and $3 to BofA.

Life will get interesting when we only have a handful of banks to choose from.

207   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 8:12am  

DinOR,

You think you almost committed a faux pas?

When I moved into my house here, I went over and rang the bell on my new neighbor's house. What appeared to be a teenage girl answered the door. I almost asked "is your mother at home" but for some reason didn't. It turns out she is the lady of the house and has 3 kids, the oldest of which is 4.

Man some of these Mormon brides sure look young.

208   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 8:21am  

Damned. Hillbilly raked in $109 Million since 2000.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080404/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_taxes;_ylt=Ah1rs9.CEIO1ctNPJVbdYe6s0NUE

Why would you put up with politics when you could just have such a wonderful life with that much scratch?

209   Peter P   2008 Apr 4, 8:37am  

Why would you put up with politics when you could just have such a wonderful life with that much scratch?

The reflexivity of money and power?

Money brings power.
Power brings money.

210   Brand165   2008 Apr 4, 11:08am  

Why would you put up with politics when you could just have such a wonderful life with that much scratch?

Everybody's gotta have a hobby. Plus the White House stocks sweet... uh, cigars. Yeehawww!

211   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 11:10am  

How about this? The former CEO of Bare Sterns donated huge amounts of money so poor old guys could get free Viagra.

www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/weekinreview/30word.html?pagewanted=2&ref=weekinreview

Alan C. Greenberg bettered his own life by becoming rich on Wall Street, and yesterday he gave away $1 million of that money to better the lives of other aging men in a very specific way: He will pay for Viagra prescriptions for people who cannot afford them.

“I guess you could say I’m kind of into basics,” said Mr. Greenberg, 70, the chairman of Bear, Stearns Companies, who received a $20 million bonus last year.

212   SP   2008 Apr 4, 11:27am  

DennisN asked: Do bubble-goggles have the opposite effect?

Bubble-Goggles (tm) distort everything you see, especially about yourself.

Debt feels like wealth.

Your middle-aged spouse looks reasonably dashing in [his shiny new Boxster] / [her shiny new SUV].

Your kids seem to bother you less because you buy them a new video-game "system" every year. And they seem cuter because you dress them in designer duds.

Your crappy tv-shows look better because you are watching them on that new plasma tv that you bought on a delayed payment plan.

Then, one day, you bump into reality and get the Bubble-Goggles (tm) knocked off... and realize you are married to a middle-aged, overweight, unattractive no-hoper with a bad attitude, your kids are a bunch of spoilt brats with no sense of responsibility, and that house you bought is now worth a little less than what you owe. And you, you aren't so hot yourself...

213   SP   2008 Apr 4, 11:28am  

... and oh yeah, I almost forgot the most important thing... you aren't the real-estate tycoon that you fancied yourself to be.

214   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 12:52pm  

In separate statements Friday morning, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama supported another stimulus package and an extension of unemployment benefits, among other measures. In contrast, John McCain, acknowledging that “many Americans are hurting,” said that lower taxes and less regulation would generate jobs.

“People have been focused on the housing crisis, and rightly so,” said Andrew Stettner, a policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project, “but now the deterioration in the job market should be demanding much more attention from policy makers.”

215   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 12:55pm  

Parul Vora, 28, who holds a master’s degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, thought she was immune to unemployment — until Yahoo laid her off recently as a researcher in San Francisco earning in the low six figures.

“To me, the layoff was an introduction to the dark side of corporate life,” Ms. Vora said. “It was a reminder that at the end of the day, you are doing breakthrough research for a company that is making decisions about your life, and you have no control over those decisions.”

216   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 12:56pm  

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is calling on President Bush to work with Congress on another economic stimulus package in light of the disastrous Labor Department report that 80,000 Americans lost jobs last month.

"Today"s disturbing unemployment numbers, combined with (Fed) Chairman (Ben) Bernanke’s recession warning, and threats to our standard living because of the rising costs of gas, groceries and health care compels the president to work with Congress on a second stimulus package to get our economy back on track, create jobs, and speed assistance to families struggling to make ends meet," Pelosi said in a written statement.

Pelosi added, "When congressional leaders meet with the president next week, I will urge him to refocus his attention on America's economy and to again work in a bipartisan manner on a new stimulus package. We need to work together to restore consumer and market confidence, to assist millions of Americans threatened with the loss of their homes, and to help families meet the rising costs of necessities."

217   Wade Young   2008 Apr 4, 12:58pm  

StuckinBA--

People are going to have to work until they die, as they are not preparing otherwise. They younger people will learn from that ... then more prosperity, then the cycle will repeat itself.

218   Brand165   2008 Apr 4, 1:38pm  

Parul Vora, 28... earning in the low six figures.

“To me, the layoff was an introduction to the dark side of corporate life,” Ms. Vora said. “It was a reminder that at the end of the day, you are doing breakthrough research for a company that is making decisions about your life, and you have no control over those decisions.”

You know what I'm tired of? People who think they have no control over their own lives. Working at Yahoo is a choice. They provide you with a six-figure salary and possibly some interesting research topics, and in exchange you provide your hard work and intellect. There is no guarantee expressed or implied. You chose this exchange. Period. The end.

People hate it when their carefully laid plans are disrupted, but they wouldn't hesitate to ditch Yahoo if they found something better (where "better" is defined as worthwhile enough to create a departure, otherwise it's not really "better" or the person is a fool). It's awfully hard to feel sorry for someone who makes more in a year than Joe SixPack's entire net worth.

Now that snippet didn't mention a sinking mortgage, so why do I bring this up? I'm honestly tired of hearing about all the couples in Florida, Arizona, California and other areas that are "victims" of the housing bubble. So if it all goes well, you're a brilliant winner, and if it doesn't go well, then you're a "victim" and we should help you out? Apparently nobody cares to comprehend that they are taking a risk when they sign up for a mortgage that they can only afford under a very specific set of circumstances--a high paying job in a particular area, two incomes, no major expenses, a big forthcoming inheritance, a pick-a-payment loan. There is an awesome Demotivator (tm) named Overconfidence that says: "Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you could survive the odds beating you."

Yeah. Exactly.

Taking such a risk is a choice. I believe that people should be thoroughly informed about their choices. If they need help understanding the potential consequences, then perhaps we should provide our fellow citizens with an impartial, high-quality information source. We should mitigate future housing bubbles by making sure that every single high school graduate in this country understands the different types of mortgages and is literate in reading contracts (or in retaining a lawyer). All graduates must understand the legal roles of each party in typical real estate, medical, employment, marriage, insurance and contract transactions. Or perhaps these aspects should all be handled like driver's licenses--all these things are priveleges, and there is a minimum expectation by your fellow citizens that you can conclusively demonstrate your understanding of the basic principles before we allow you to proceed. All the MSM talk is about regulating the banks... well, layering strict safety requirements onto car companies can't prevent people from being shitty drivers. Our society needs to work both ends of this problem with a thorough, long-term mindset. If we don't properly educate our citizens, then we'll just repeat this debacle in another form.

As for Parul Vora--the "dark side" of Privelege is Consequence. Welcome to Real Life. :twisted:

219   PermaRenter   2008 Apr 4, 2:18pm  

>> Working at Yahoo is a choice.

I agree. I joined Yahoo Platform Engineering in 2006 for the hot shot Panama project. I could not take lax culture, high talk of competing with Google and politics more than five months. I quit to be a manager in a small company. Now I am a Senior Manager in a public company in San Jose.

When I joined, Yahoo share price was 42. When I left, it was 24.

220   Malcolm   2008 Apr 4, 2:34pm  

That's a pretty cool story PermaRenter.

221   DennisN   2008 Apr 4, 5:48pm  

People who think they have no control over their own lives. Working at Yahoo is a choice. They provide you with a six-figure salary and possibly some interesting research topics, and in exchange you provide your hard work and intellect. There is no guarantee expressed or implied.

I've had to be flexible all my life. My first go at grad school was in a physics PhD program which I found not to my liking. I got out with an MA and had to scrounge around for a job. I started at Bell Aero as a circuit designer and after performing well I leveraged that into a much better paying gig at LMSC.

Normal job progression in defense is from detailed designer to systems engineer and finally (around age 40) into project management. Unfortunately for me, right about the time I would have been promoted into management the USSR broke up and the defense industry went into a decade-long tailspin.

So I cashed in my 401(k) funds and put myself through law school, training myself for a good paying gig as a patent attorney. I was able to leverage a broad-but-shallow knowlege of many engineering disciplines into a new career.

People who think a "hot" college degree entitles them to a lifetime hot job are deluding themselves. Sometimes you have to re-invent yourself several times over a career.

222   Duke   2008 Apr 4, 10:43pm  

Dennis,
Yup. I am at the systems egineer phase as well. I am not sure the project mgmt job will come, but for all of its flaws, aerospace is pretty interesting.

What do you think of the cold up there in Idaho? The schools?

223   DennisN   2008 Apr 5, 12:13am  

I can't speak personally to the schools here since I'm one of those never-married guys. Friends that visited went to some website that numerically ranks US schools and claimed that Eagle HS ranks similar to Palo Alto HS. I'm not sure what such numerical rankings really mean.

January and February can get cold here in the valley, but nothing like the central part of the state. Stanley often is cited as being the coldest spot in the contiguous US on national weather reports. For example, last week it got down to 34 deg. here in Boise at night but to -19 degrees in Stanley. Idaho is a large state and straddles the latitudes from the border with Nevada all the way to Canada so there's a huge difference in climate among various parts of the state.

224   SP   2008 Apr 5, 12:22am  

“To me, the layoff was an introduction to the dark side of corporate life,” Ms. Vora said. “It was a reminder that at the end of the day, you are doing breakthrough research for a company that is making decisions about your life, and you have no control over those decisions.”

At any large employer in the tech industry (and yahoo is one of them) , I have never seen a technical R&D person with a strong track-record laid off. The company invariably offers great-to-very-good engineers at least one or two other options transfer internally before a division gets cut.

The only cases in which I know such folks were laid off are at:
1. startups that go bust (happened to me)
2. companies that went bankrupt
3. when the engineer didn't like any of the internal options and opted to take the severance

Based on her own linkedIn profile, Ms. Vora seems to have been a smart but fairly low-level intern in Yahoo' interaction research lab. There is nothing wrong with that, and she has some marquee schools on her resume, and maybe Yahoo made a mistake in laying her off - but it does not quite square with the inflated description of her position as some kind of VIP within the org.

225   lunarpark   2008 Apr 5, 12:54am  

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_8821074

One in five homes put on the market in Santa Clara County recently is an attempted "short sale"

226   cb   2008 Apr 5, 2:09am  

I have never seen a technical R&D person with a strong track-record laid off.

I agree, if you are good, there will always be work. During the dot com busts, my previous company constantly reminded us that we are lucky to still have a job, the smart ones always have options, the scare tactics just seemed silly.

227   cb   2008 Apr 5, 2:12am  

With regard to the exploding inventory, it seems like it's happening, I use Movoto map view search where it draws a dot on a map for each house for sale. Lately the map is a lot denser, Cupertino has to have 2 or 3 times more houses that came on market than 6 months ago.

228   Peter P   2008 Apr 5, 2:41am  

I have never seen a technical R&D person with a strong track-record laid off.

Perhaps you have not seen enough. With sufficient political skills, that may be true.

229   FormerAptBroker   2008 Apr 5, 2:41am  

DennisN Says:

> Damned. Hillbilly raked in $109 Million since 2000.
> Why would you put up with politics when you could
> just have such a wonderful life with that much scratch?

Some people just seem to like to add stress to their life…

Examples are:

Former First Lady who could easily make $10mm + a year as a corporate atty. Working 20 hours a week but decides to work 100 hours a week as a feeding her ego as politician traveling around the country telling people that a black guy would make a bad president (and black voters should vote for her) …

The super smart son of a Billionaire real estate guy making next to nothing working long hours as the AG of a East Coast state and paying tens of thousands for sex when he could be working just a few house a week as a partner of a Wall Street law firm making millions and getting free sex from super hot NYC models who just want dinner at a nice restaurant…

230   skibum   2008 Apr 5, 2:49am  

RE: this yahoo who got "laid off" at Yahoo, whether or not he/she is any good is to me besides the point. Yes, even in the worst economic times, people with valuable skills will still find work.

During a downturn, it's the ballast that gets jettisoned. And that's already starting to happen, albeit slowly. The extreme example was during the dot-con heyday, where idiots with no skills, no background called themselves "web developers."

Same thing can be said on a larger scale. Companies that add value and have the skill to navigate the downturn will survive and thrive. The ballast should and will be chucked (ie, most of the me-too "Web 2.0" crap).

231   FormerAptBroker   2008 Apr 5, 2:53am  

Peter P Says:

> No fault divorces should be outlawed. If there was no
> fault there would be no justification for a divorce.

There does not have to be a “fault” for there to be a divorce someone may just want a change. If I sign a 10 year contract to sell real estate for a firm they can live up to their end of the contract but I may just want to do something different in 5 years.

If I decided to break an employment contract early when there was no breach by the employer I would have to probably pay them to allow me to break the contract (I couldn’t leave and take half of the company assets with me).

I don’t understand why a gold digger can marry a guy for a few years and after to agreeing to stay with him “until death do us part” break the contract (to move in with her personal trainer) and take half the guys assets…

232   empty houses   2008 Apr 5, 2:54am  

"traveling around the country telling people that a black guy would make a bad president (and black voters should vote for her) …"

Yes, that would be a tough gig. How the hell do you get black people to vote for a white women instead of the potential first black president. It was next to impossible to convince black people that OJ was guilty. Hillary has a very tough job.

233   OO   2008 Apr 5, 3:23am  

Oh well, Obama is NOT your typical black American. He is just a second generation immigrant. He doesn't share the same "legacy" (or baggage if you will) as most black Americans whose ancestors came here as slaves. Obama's dad is an upper class African who after abandoning Obama's mom, bagged another white woman from Harvard. Obama's white mom has a more humble socio-economic background than Obama's black dad.

I chuckle when I read about how American press portray Obama's step-dad as radical Muslim man from a developing country. They probably have never traveled to Indonesia and know nothing about the social fabric over there. While I don't know Soetoro personally, from my experience in that part of the world, I'd venture to guess that he has to be a very mild Muslim (it will be very difficult to find a rich, radical Muslim in Indonesia), and again, from a very moneyed family with far more wealth than Obama's American middle class white mom. Even today, only the top 0.1% Indonesians have a chance to come to America for studies, not to mention 30 years ago. As things always go in developing countries, although they are poor in general, their rich are insanely rich. So Obama was never this kid wandering about in developing world, but lived a far more privileged life over there than here. Everyone I know from Indonesia, with NO exceptions, who is able to come to the US for study, has a whole fleet of servants, gardeners, cook or even personal guards back at home.

To paraphrase George Carlin, Obama is like Colin Powell, he happens to be black, he is openly white.

234   OO   2008 Apr 5, 3:33am  

I once visited a Filipino classmate at his hometown, and this guy was very low key at school, so you would have guessed nothing about his background. When I stepped outside the airport, he got a few armored cars waiting outside with uniformed soldiers manning these vehicles. We went to his house, and it was almost an exact replication of Great Gatsby's mansion.

Unfortunately a few years back there was a coup d'etat which involved his family, and as a result, his family was purged in the political struggle. Nevertheless, most of his close relatives end up in Hawaii resuming a "reduced" lifestyle.

The next time you run into some of those college students from bottom-of-the-barrel developing countries, don't assume that they are dirt poor. The poorer their country is, the richer the person's family is, that is my generalization.

235   OO   2008 Apr 5, 3:37am  

Clarify: If someone comes here from the Philippines or Indonesia on work visa, or illegally, he is likely to be poor. If he comes here on STUDENT visa, watch out, he could very well be a little prince back home.

236   DennisN   2008 Apr 5, 4:22am  

I went on a business trip to the Philippines once with my manager who was Filipino. We were met at the Manilla airport by the Manilla police chief - who turned out to be his uncle.

237   surfer-x   2008 Apr 5, 4:30am  

The only thing worse than being trapped in an office listening to a boomer blather on about themselve, is being trapped on a blog reading a boomer blather on about themselve.

So after you started the civil rights movement, freed the entire world from the yoke of sexual tyrany, and opened up recreational pharma to new generations. You what, got lucky? Simply stunning. Blather on boomer, I am hanging on every word. Please please tell us again how great you are doing, exactly how much you make a year and all your great stories. You really were with the stones at Altamont weren't you.

Take your calias today? If not you might want to add some provigil. Ahhhhh good boomer, now take your speed and shut up.

238   BayAreaIdiot   2008 Apr 5, 4:49am  

The extreme example was during the dot-con heyday, where idiots with no skills, no background called themselves “web developers.”

Stop the hate. Please don't be an idiotcist.

239   surfer-x   2008 Apr 5, 5:04am  

Hey DennisN, how long did it take you to pay back your $19,237* in undergraduate student loan debt? Or were you able to take advantage of the no tuition UC system while simultaneously avoiding the draft. If so, kudos to you Sir, this type of skill is amazing. One might be so shallow as to call it luck, but certainly it was anything such.

*Few students can afford to pay for college without some form of education financing. Two-thirds (65.7%) of 4-year undergraduate students graduate with some debt, and the average student loan debt among graduating seniors is $19,237 (excluding PLUS Loans but including Stafford, Perkins, state, college and private loans), according to the 2003-2004 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS).

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