patrick.net

OT: btw- nutty + other physics people: what do you think of this guy:

bs or genius?

Isn't he also a plumber in Ohio?

How does gold address the problem of hoarding.
Any financial uncertainity could cause hoarding and thus make deflation a big problem.
We can always create new money with fiat currency.
Fiat is very powerful if used correctly. If used unwisely, it could be devastating.

TOB : demurrage looks like an interesting idea.

I have some doubts on its widescale implementation though.
Enforcing demurrage looks like a challenge.

Fiat currency is more risky but removes some real bottlenecks present in gold backed currency.
In the end, time will tell which one is superior.

In the end, time will tell which one is superior.

It is still about strong hands versus weak hands. As I have said, humanity is a tragedy. Or, at best, a black comedy.

Which one do you prefer? Bankster politicians or military dictators?

The former group probably favors fiat currency whilst the later group prefers hard currency.

It is just like Alien v. Predator... whoever wins, we lose.

thenuttyneutron Says:
homepages.wmich.edu/~drichter/gossetzome.htm
Wow! I wonder how long this took to build.

If you are interested in this stuff, you should check out some of the Tibetan Buddhist and ancient Indian chalk patterns. They are two-dimensional projections of hyper-spaces.

A lot of those projections involve compound transformations - but they are expressed node-based patterns that are so simple that Tibetan kids practice drawing them for entertainment. A professor at Urbana-Champaign gave a very interesting talk about it a few years ago, but I forgot his name.

TOB:

Lisi is for real, and up to 10 minutes in, he's only talking about what is already known. The rest is extension of the kind of symmetries that have already yielded actual results. E8 efflorescence is a hell of a lot more likely basis for reality than the incredible crap string theorists churn out, that have yet to yield one verified prediction.

Indeed SP, the Kalachakra Mandala and the Palace of Shambala are exactly where my mind goes in recognition when I see the E8 rotations.

http://tinyurl.com/6h8nkb

Kipling on Conservative Apes Vs. Liberal Apes: Very timely!

http://tinyurl.com/5z73wk

A pull from the above:

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Uh-huh.

Pete:

As I have said, humanity is a tragedy. Or, at best, a black comedy.

It all depends on whether it ends in a funeral or a wedding!

"btw- nutty + other physics people: what do you think of this guy:"

the E8 theory does evoke some feelings of truth and simplicity. Although it's not my favorite.

OMG NASCAR is having financial problems

Yes, one of the "corrections" when the debt powered overheating is turned off. NASCAR drivers will have to settle for more reasonable compensation as ticket prices and sponsor fees must fall to more affordable levels. The same effect will hit overcompensated movie stars, NFL players, and other entertainers as people will no longer pay exorbitant fees for tickets, nor will sponsors continue to overpay for ads.

Headset:

Yes, one of the “corrections” when the debt powered overheating is turned off.

Nice to know there are a few people out there who "get it." Cars, Season Tickets, $50K kitchens, Stocks... just about anything with "disposable income" written on it to be (read "borrowed money") have jumped through the roof in the last 20 years. Irrational exuberance indeed. And the number of people who think they "deserve" a Carribean Cruise and a Swiss Ski vacation every year is simply astonishing. Those used to be once-in-a-lifetime things, and, but for borrowed money, would still be.

>>OMG NASCAR is having financial problems

I hope NASCAR goes bankrupt. Spending all that oil on going around in circles and accomplishing nothing is obscene.

Well, I prefer horse-racing. More classy.

I like the idea of illegal Grey Hound Street Racing.

Another good one would be St. Bernard’s racing around the NASCAR Tracks with Colobus Monkeys as jockeys.

How 'bout some Wall St CEOs running in ciricles, literally. That would reduce the amount of mischief.

Cars, Season Tickets, $50K kitchens, Stocks… just about anything with “disposable income” written on it to be (read “borrowed money”) have jumped through the roof in the last 20 years.

Uncanny. That sounds like the script for one of those "priceless" Mastercard commercials.

Best proof that the bailout was for Wall Street execs:

No "Sidewalk Soufflés" in front of the skyscrapers. Serious economic downturn usually produces a morbid rain of the newly unrich. Unless, of course, thier fortunes were saved somehow.

Headset:

My personal indicator of the true sanity turn-around? When Starbucks files Chapter 11. ($8 for a cuppa? Dese peeple r knuts!)

But I ain't holding my breath.

Starbucks is closing a lot of stores, and now we are hearing the "cool people" talk about the superior taste of the the much less expensive McDonalds and WaWa coffees.

Hope!

I'm a Folgers kinda guy, but glad to hear about Starby's. Next thing you know the yuppies will move back to drinking Boone's Farm and Gallo. I feel like that 70's show is coming back around, starring Barry O as James Earl Carter. Stagflation and 20% CDs here we come!

I'm also out of Moderation, which is always a good thing. I am immoderate, after all.

RE: cockfighting

That would be illegal though.

The ugly details of Paulson's contracts are starting to trickle out. NOW is the time to fix this, all who were against the bailout should not wash their hands of this You should demand that Paulson does it right.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/corporate-governance-takes-back-seat/story.aspx?guid={8750f6ed-3f7f-4e80-b39a-c8d03e13234a}

As if demand things make them happen...

Do not confuse what ought to be and what is.

It is what it is. And it does not depend upon what the definition of the word 'is' is.

Wall Street banks in $70bn staff payout
Pay and bonus deals equivalent to 10% of US government bail-out package

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/17/executivesalaries-banking

I am looking to buy a townhouse in Cupertino. This is what a realtor advised .... :

price-wise as we see the properties dropping more in price. You may notice for the first time in as long as I can remember, this real estate turmoil is also affecting homes in the Cupertino area. None of the houses currently on the market are moving which may very well nudge the prices down more. You can bet I'm watching them all very carefully and will keep in touch if a "good deal" drops in. I would say for the patient buyers Nov/December could be very good months to buy as there will be those that will want to sell by year end for the tax breaks and may become very negotiable....

Fears of Lehman's CDS derivatives haunt markets

It is a full week after bankers gathered in New York to start sorting out the derivatives mess left by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. We still do not know who is on the hook for some $360bn of default insurance, or how much they will have to pay.
...
Those on the wrong side of these Lehman debt contracts - known as credit default swaps (CDS) - must come up with the money by Tuesday, the next D-Day in the ever-fraught calendar of the credit markets. There has been a deafening silence so far.

There is no easy way of finding out who they are, so every bank and insurer is suspect. The $55,000bn CDS market is "completely lacking in transparency and completely unregulated" in the words of Chris Cox, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
...
Chris Whalen, head of Institutional Risk Analytics, says this creates a huge moral dilemna. Why should taxpayers now responsible for AIG foot the bill for huge windfall transfers to hedge funds?

"We need to shut this whole thing down. The people who don't own the underlying collateral and were just betting should be flushed away. It would be grotesque if the US authorities were now to subsidize speculators. The US political class is waking up to this," he said.

PermaRenter Says:
I am looking to buy a townhouse in Cupertino. This is what a realtor advised …. :

"price-wise as we see the properties dropping more in price. You may notice for the first time in as long as I can remember, this real estate turmoil is also affecting homes in the Cupertino area. None of the houses currently on the market are moving which may very well nudge the prices down more. You can bet I’m watching them all very carefully and will keep in touch if a “good deal” drops in. I would say for the patient buyers Nov/December could be very good months to buy as there will be those that will want to sell by year end for the tax breaks and may become very negotiable…"

Be careful. I was sent an unsolicited message that is almost the same (some stuff like Nov/Dec is an exact copy) - but about another area nearby. It looks like the realtwhore cartel has got some talking-points that they are inserting into their "advice".

This guy also used the same phrase "nudge the prices down some more". The gist is still - "it is a pretty good time to buy, and I am only here to help you". Same wine, slightly more subtle bottle.

Never forget that you are dealing with a salesperson who ultimately gets paid only if he/she convinces you to buy.

http://www.star-telegram.com/metro_news/story/982369.html

If this is not an abuse of the law I don't know what is. TXDOT rejected Chesapeake's request for a pipeline because they don't allow gas lines on their easements. Somehow a homeowner who actually owns the land is a legit target of a lawsuit.

So, does anyone have any idea when the Credit Card CDS are going to be the next big news item?

1 Subprime is old news.

2 Alt A is the rage now

3 Credit Card (next)

4 FED follows Iceland's Lead (sometime in the future)

nut,

we still have prime ARM reset. Please don't jump the queue.

On topic, the forced capital infusion into the big-9 banks isn't, and probably won't help increase consumer credit lending. The big banks are using the money to recapitalize themselves. We were talking about this on my blog. Basically, they're taking the gov't 5% freebie money to pay off their 10%-12% outstanding notes.

Paulson was questioned about this on the day after they gifted away our money, and his response was something like "well, they better not just use the money to recap; they won't, they promised". Or something like that. Three days later and the CEOs of the big banks were giving interviews describing exactly how they were doing just that.

The sad thing is that something like 80-85% of consumer credit lending in the country is not done through the top-9, it is done through the regional and local banks. And those guys are dying on the vine right now. They're the ones who really need the help. Some even deserve it. There are plenty of small, regional banks who didn't sit at the MBS sushi bar, who held their mortgages, and who are now getting squeezed out because of the giant sucking sound of all the money going upstream to the big banks.

I guess the good news is that this lunacy is preventing inflation. It's all deflationary. As in liquidity-trap, Japan-style deflationary. So if you consider that good news, I guess... Maybe our lost-decade will produce some good anime; people will have a lot of free time and pent up creative energy for the next many years. It's not like they'll be working.

PermaRenter,

Do you have a reference/link for the post about Tuesday LEH CDS market event?

I guess the good news is that this lunacy is preventing inflation. It’s all deflationary. As in liquidity-trap, Japan-style deflationary.

Or, we have have deflation and inflation in quick successions. It is just dangerous for banks to have more liquidity than responsibility.

Randy,

What I do not get is whether the 125B has actually been disbursed. Signing a 1-page "contract" last Sunday ought not be enough to do that.

What will it take to force Paulson to require "Buffett terms" for the equity purchase, and not 5% giveaways with no teeth at all (see earlier link)?

Are you blaming voters or democracy in general? Or both?

Both I guess; democracy doesn't work so well when the majority of ones citizens are nitwits.

My lease expires in december. They'd send me a lease renewal agreement in 2 weeks. I will try to negotiate my rent down and sign a 1 year lease. As it is I am seeing a lot of empty apartments (in Pleasanton) as the companies around here are laying off even the Indian Bodyshop Labor who were living 8 to an apartment, so I am hoping for a messed up vacancy rate at my complex to help me negotiate.

We're going to this show tonight!

http://www.schadenfreude.net/

Randy,

we won't have the lost decade the Japanese style, because the Japanese headed into their lost decade(s) with plenty of household savings, and a national savings rate of above 15%. We don't have that luxury.

I don't know how we drag on, but during GD 1.0 most American households had savings, and we were the manufacturing base on the world, and that could be why it dragged on so long to digest the overcapacity.

I have a feeling that either we don't drag on that long, or we drag on with far more pain than Japanese. I hope we just get it over with and move on, obviously the politicians think otherwise.