0
0

Low Interest Rates Make It A Bad Time To Buy


 invite response                
2009 Jan 13, 8:08am   12,640 views  144 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

hard to sell

Realtors hunting for the few fools not yet parted with their money keep insisting that low rates are a good thing for buyers. Not true. Low interest rates make it a bad time to buy.

First of all, house prices move inversely to interest rates. If rates have nowhere to go but up, then prices have nowhere to go but down.

Secondly, anyone buying with an adjustable rate will get a nasty surprise when his rate later increases at the same time that the value of his house has fallen.

Though I suppose if you get a 30-year fixed rate loan and don't care about resale value because you never plan to leave, then maybe it's OK to buy and bet that inflation will wipe out most of your loan. Not many signs of inflation yet, so such a bet might not pay off.

#housing

« First        Comments 79 - 118 of 144       Last »     Search these comments

79   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 19, 12:05am  

I heard through the grapevine of some people getting principal reductions as well as 30 year fixed refinance rates in the 2.5% range as a loan modification.

Has anyone heard of this? It sounds too far fetched.

Happy King day.

80   coretexity   2009 Jan 19, 2:18am  

FuzzyMath - I would not be surprised. The main goal of all this is to fuck the savers/renters and reward the speculators. The end solution is for everyone to be piss poor and in debt upto their eyeballs. This is what will guarantee revenue and propped up markets (equity/housing) in our bailout nation. All this is working towards that end solution.

81   justme   2009 Jan 19, 4:06am  

Coretexity,

Very ugly scenario but not all that far fetched. Basically, the powers that be will do anything to get the peons into line. I'm just trying to decide when not to be a peon anymore.

82   PermaRenter   2009 Jan 19, 10:45am  

Belkin's Business Development Representative, Michael Bayard, was caught offering money for 100% good reviews about Belkin products at Amazon.com and other e-tailing sites. The Daily Background uncovered this news from Amazon's Mechanical Turk website. After the buzz created on the web, Belkin acted swiftly and removed the postings and reviews. Also, Mark Reynoso, Belkin's President reacted to the incident by writing a letter in which he apologized for the unethical practice.

If you read user reviews of a particular Belkin router at Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN).com recently, chances are it could have been a fake review that was written for money.

This is where the Internet goes bad. Some Belkin employee actually advertised in hopes of finding real-world people to write fake product reviews for money. The advertisement asked for the highest possible review (five stars) and plenty of good comments about the router. The ad also suggested that the fake reviewers mark legit reviews as "unhelpful".

The Belkin employee in question, Michael Bayard, was a business development representative. Mr. Bayard asked reviewers to write reviews even if they didn't own the product, and to make up a narrative about why they bought it and how it was performing. Obviously, this is pretty bad business.

The bad publicity machine reared its head over the weekend as tech blogs all over started reporting on the matter. Good thing for Belkin, management was paying attention and started the spin control machine quickly.

http://www.belkin.com/pressroom/letter.html

83   PermaRenter   2009 Jan 19, 10:47am  

http://www.thedailybackground.com/2009/01/16/exclusive-belkins-development-rep-is-hiring-people-to-write-fake-positive-amazon-reviews/

Exclusive: Belkin’s Development Rep is Hiring People to Write Fake Positive Amazon Reviews

84   PermaRenter   2009 Jan 19, 11:12am  

80 Thousand South Floridians To Lose Jobs In 2009

According to an IHS Global report, commissioned by the U.S. Conference of Mayors, the Miami area will lose 85 thousand jobs and have an unemployment rate of more than 8 percent by the end of 2009. More than 80 thousand jobs will be cut in Chicago and more than 164 thousand workers are expected to receive pink slips in Los Angeles 2009; in part because of the huge drop in home prices which has put a major hole in California's economy.

New York is expected to take the biggest jobs hit in 2009. As Wall Street firms slash their payrolls, the study found more than 181 thousand workers in the Big Apple could be out of a job by year's end.

The study also found that 70 cities, including Detroit and Cleveland which have already been stung by the struggling economy, could very well see their unemployment rates top 10 percent. Cities like Denver and St. Louis are expected to see unemployment rise above 9 percent.

The only bright spot in the report was that cities like Ithaca, N.Y.; Fairbanks, Alaska; and St. George, Utah, are among the handful of cities whose employment rate will remain flat or may actually increase slightly.

(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

85   monkframe   2009 Jan 19, 12:30pm  

So mass murder is OK as long as Muslims or other "undesirables" are being murdered?
BTW, Israeli forces are reported to have continued killing after the "ceasefire" was declared. No doubt that's OK too, eh??
Better stick to real estate, about international affairs you are delusional.

86   Malcolm   2009 Jan 19, 12:43pm  

All they have to do is stop attacking Israel. I am baffled by a group of people who clearly start a conflict and then claim to be victims because of a defensive counterstrike.

87   Malcolm   2009 Jan 19, 1:55pm  

I'm told that solar water heating is very common in Israel. They come over here and are amazed that hardly anyone uses it here.

88   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 19, 2:21pm  

Coretexity said...

"The main goal of all this is to fuck the savers/renters and reward the speculators."

Yes sir. I think any modifications the banks are doing is to sucker people into a recourse loan. I would guess that very few, if any loans that were originally recourse are getting modified.

I wonder if there are stats on this? Anyone?

89   Malcolm   2009 Jan 19, 2:23pm  

Great point Fuzzy, I hadn't thought of that. What a great scam.

90   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 19, 2:58pm  

I would say the most valuable asset an underwater homeowner has at this point is the "non" in their non-recourse loan.

The difference could mean several hundred thousand dollars and/or bankruptcy.

91   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 19, 3:06pm  

Patrick had this article posted yesterday... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/16/AR2009011604724.html?referrer=emailarticle&ref=patrick.net

This to me is going to be the theme of 2009, and perhaps the biggest tragedy. There are going to be alot of middle class families completely wiped out by the end of this.

Welcome to serfdom.

92   Peter P   2009 Jan 20, 12:05am  

All they have to do is stop attacking Israel. I am baffled by a group of people who clearly start a conflict and then claim to be victims because of a defensive counterstrike.

Absolutely. I doubt Israel has a desire for war except for self defense. It is just that sometimes a good offense is the best defense.

The civilized world must unite against terrorists.

93   justme   2009 Jan 20, 12:36am  

Israel does not have a desire for war, but (some of ) the israelis have an unfortunate desire for land and settlements, which is distinctly not helping on the situation.

It is like Bay Area Fortress real estate, but with lots of guns and religion added into the mix.

94   justme   2009 Jan 20, 1:43am  

Hail to the Chief.

95   EBGuy   2009 Jan 20, 4:17am  

I just went off the gold standard (perhaps too early?). Still have some SLV if the banks get nationalized and Ben starts printing...

96   EBGuy   2009 Jan 20, 5:11am  

And speaking of deflation:
But there's a new twist on the layoff leviathan that hasn't been seen in a major way in America since the 1930s: In addition to laying off workers, some corporations are asking remaining employees to take a pay cuts, and fairly large ones in some cases.

97   HeadSet   2009 Jan 20, 5:46am  

some corporations are asking remaining employees to take a pay cuts, and fairly large ones in some cases.

Less pay to go round after the credit part of "money and credit" dried up. But as a mitigating note, falling prices will take some sting out of the lower nominal pay . We know about housing costs in free fall, now watch other big ticket items follow suit, even cars. From the MISH article on the Patrick reading list:

Cars are going to get cheaper, much cheaper. Auto prices will crash. Liquidation sales later this year after the 2010 models come out are going to be fabulous.

98   kewp   2009 Jan 20, 8:07am  

This to me is going to be the theme of 2009, and perhaps the biggest tragedy. There are going to be alot of middle class families completely wiped out by the end of this.

Stories like this *kill* me.

Only in America could someone with a million-dollar home be considered a hard luck story.

Screw them. I hope they lose everything in bankruptcy court.

99   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 20, 9:02am  

Yeah screw them! Asshole selling police supplies! They fucking deserve to starve!

Are you fucking retarded?

It really becomes obvious how the ruling class stays in power when idiots like you open your mouth.

100   Paul189   2009 Jan 20, 9:38am  

@ kewp,

I'm with you - here is the real hard luck story!

" Oxfam provides food rations as Zimbabwe's hunger crisis is nearing a peak, millions of people see their food from last year's harvest run out months before the next crop will come in Photo: AFP"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/4269695/Zimbabwe-introduces-100-trillion-banknote.html

101   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 20, 9:39am  

Who gives a shit who they thought they were. I'm not sobbing into my pillow because of Mr. and Mrs. McDouchebag.

What I am concerned about is that the entire middle class of this country is going to get wiped out. There there will be the pigmen, and everyone else, with nothing in between to slow them down.

And if you think Mr and Mrs McDouchebag ARE the pigmen, then open your fucking eyes.

102   EBGuy   2009 Jan 20, 9:46am  

They cannot afford their $6,400 monthly payment...
Fuzzy, I have to admit, I am with kewp and TOB on this one. I mean, that's just their mortgage payment and doesn't include taxes and maintenance ( and HOA fees to pay for the guard at their gated community). I mean, he was a salesmen for cryin' out loud.

103   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 20, 9:50am  

For some reason you guys think I feel sorry for them. I don't.

104   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 20, 9:52am  

Anyhow, when it's 2011, the unemployment rate is 17%, and the middle class has evaporated, then you will understand my point.

105   OO   2009 Jan 20, 10:10am  

I have seen plenty of Mr. Million-in-debt, they all share the same blind optimism thinking the good days will always be here to stay.

Another blunder I see too often is buying before selling. Why would anyone be so optimistic that he thinks there will always be a fool in the market ready to take over his home at whatever he is asking for to cover the next mortgage? The simple rule that I was taught by my parents was, always sell first and then buy, even if it means you will have to rent for two months to make the schedule, because that way you will never be caught in a downturn, and you won't be stuck with two mortgages.

Fuzzy, the thing is, middle class has LONG evaporated, this crisis just makes it blatantly clear. There are already very few true middle class left (the former middle class are now known as the upper middle class or marginally rich). How many families can afford to have one working parent to carry the mortgage? How many families have enough savings to last 2 years of expenses? How many people approaching retirement age have enough nest eggs saved up? The evaporation of middle class was masked over in the last few years through their "asset appreciation" in terms of housing and stock price, once that is gone, the credit hole they are in, the ongoing negative cash flow they are enduring will just get acutely, painfully in their face. Today's American "middle class" are one or few paychecks away from defaulting on their financial obligations, and that was typical of working stiff less than a century ago.

This country is made up of a very small number of elite class, few middle upper class, mostly still-in-dream, self-proclaimed, self-disillusioned "middle class", and a substantial number of already hopeless already given-up underclass.

106   OO   2009 Jan 20, 10:17am  

Obama's inauguration speech is just so Obama, you feel like you are taking an American literature class, but there are really no concrete action plans. None whatsoever. I am not really complaining, at least we've got a President who can speak eloquently as opposed to a mentally challenged shrub.

I also find it ominous that he is drawing so much from Lincoln's speech, not a good sign, for himself and his family to say the least. I understand why he thinks drawing a parallel to Lincoln will make sense, but if I were him, I would rather borrow a few encouraging words from Reagan's speech, at least Reagan lived till late 80s.

107   kewp   2009 Jan 20, 11:53am  

Yeah screw them! Asshole selling police supplies! They fucking deserve to starve!

Are you fucking retarded?

It really becomes obvious how the ruling class stays in power when idiots like you open your mouth.

Classy!

Do you really think anyone in that article is going to starve? Or simply be forced to *gasp*; downsize their lifestyle?

Speaking of middle class, know what the median US household income is? About 50k (for now at least). Nobody in that article is 'middle class'. They are all rich people that bankrupted themselves pretending to be even richer people.

Fuck. Them. All.

Every single one of those people bought more house than they could afford. The end game of this deflationary debt-collapse is that real middle class folk (like myself) will be able to purchase affordable real-estate.

My life gets better. Theirs gets worse. Sucks to be them.

108   HeadSet   2009 Jan 20, 12:01pm  

How many families can afford to have one working parent to carry the mortgage? How many families have enough savings to last 2 years of expenses? How many people approaching retirement age have enough nest eggs saved up?

This not necessarily a "middle class" concept. Plenty of modestly living blue collars have a paid-for home by age 45, with plenty of time to set up a modest retirement. Remember, even post bubble, one-third of US homes have no mortgage. It used to be one-half.

"Middle Class" used to be a Buick and a 1500 ft home. Every husbands favorite meal was meatloaf. Appetite for consumption did not exceed income. We will see this again when the attitudes change to value a paid for (albeit modest) house and car over luxury items with perpetual payments.

109   HeadSet   2009 Jan 20, 12:06pm  

The end game of this deflationary debt-collapse is that real middle class folk (like myself) will be able to purchase affordable real-estate.

Amen!!

Blue collars will also benefit from lower housing costs. It may be a Clayton Home on a rural or small town lot, but it will be his. Or maybe a older home he bought cheap and fixed up over the years.

110   Malcolm   2009 Jan 20, 1:21pm  

Reagan was 93 when he died.

111   Puppet Master   2009 Jan 20, 2:21pm  

FuzzyMath Says:
January 20th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Anyhow, when it’s 2011, the unemployment rate is 17%, and the middle class has evaporated, then you will understand my point.

You had a point? lol.

112   kewp   2009 Jan 20, 11:28pm  

seems like weve got a lot of false victimhood in the news lately…

Exactly.

These assholes will *still* lead a higher quality of life than me after bankruptcy and foreclosure.

You can't afford your 6k/month mortgage anymore? Boo-fucking-hoo. I *can* afford my 1k. Cry me a river.

113   kewp   2009 Jan 20, 11:35pm  

not only will houses be more affordable, but jobs will return. We will no longer be fighting the current with regards to the outsourcing problem, because it will be just as cheap to have jobs here as in eg. India. Housing prices must fall.

And, I just heard that immigration is offering a green card to anyone that buys a million dollars or more in domestic real estate. Not only will domestic labor become affordable again; but all the worlds rich people will move here to take advantage of it!

114   FuzzyMath   2009 Jan 20, 11:48pm  

I'm certainly not going to argue against the benefits of cheaper housing. But it's not really falling unless it falls relative to wages.

I know alot of people getting pay cuts... forced vacations, 4 day work weeks, etc.

Perhaps by the end of it if wages rise quicker than inflation we'd be better off. But right now it looks like mostly a wash.

115   kewp   2009 Jan 21, 1:48am  

Investment in real estate in US guarantees green card

http://www.propertywisebulgaria.com/article/investment-in-real-estate-in-us-guarantees-green-card/id_3158/catid_29

Note: I have not verified this.

If its true; I think its a fantastic idea. While the rest of the world implodes; offer sanctuary for the wealthy living abroad to emigrate to the US. There will be plenty of unemployed Americans available to mow their lawns and watch their kids; so no need for illegal labor!

116   kewp   2009 Jan 21, 2:10am  


Anyhow, when it’s 2011, the unemployment rate is 17%, and the middle class has evaporated, then you will understand my point.

Let's make something nice and crystal clear (since you think I'm retarded).

There is no formal definition of middle class. For arguments sake; lets define it as anywhere from half to twice the median household income.

Based on the 2007 numbers of 50k per household; that gives us a range of 25k-100k (again, household numbers). At the 3X income-to-mortgage multiplier, that puts the *peak* mortgage for a middle-class family @ 300k.

You see anyone with a 300k or less mortgage in that sob-story article?

No.

They are not middle class. They are not upper-middle class. They are/were upper class people living beyond their means that are going to be forced into a middle-class lifestyle entirely due to their own poor choices. They deserve no quarter. Especially from a middle-class wage slave like myself.

The *true* middle class, on the other hand, is going to enjoy a higher quality of life as their dollars regain purchasing power.

117   slumlord   2009 Jan 21, 2:39am  

TOB, that sounds right for a definition. lol

118   lunarpark   2009 Jan 21, 2:39am  

Bargain hunting dominates Bay Area home sales in December

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090121.aspx

« First        Comments 79 - 118 of 144       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions