patrick.net

Yes, we need to bring jobs back to America

From where? More than 2/3rds of the jobs "lost" in the US in the last 20 years simply don't exist anymore. If you "brought back" the remaining manufacturing jobs that went to india or china you'd just kill those countries economies and make things in the US even worse.

Yes, the home prices will be reset to pre-2000

Where, and why? Right now in many parts of the country houses are substantially cheaper on a monthly basis than they were in 2000. It's only in bizarro-land like CA where things are really still outrageous. What does this have to do with protectionism?

Yes, we need to regulate corporations, healthcare

I don't even know what this is supposed to mean. We already do regulate corporations and health care -- are you saying that we should do more of that? What does this have to do with protectionism?

No, we cannot fund GDP with our home equity

Ok. What does this have to do with protectionism?

No, we cannot continue the trend of offshoring

Why not?

No, you should not buy now

Ok. What does this have to do with protectionism?

No, home prices will not skyrocket again….ever

What an absurd statement to make. Of course home prices will skyrocket again at some point -- shortly after the majority of people who made stupid decisions have forgotten what those stupid decisions were.

Do you really think that the most recent period was the first case of a home price bubble?

30 years from now, inflation will make the house price run-up look like a blip on the charts, and you can be sure that once that happens we'll see the return of ninja loans and strawberry pickers buying mansions.

Not that this has anything to do with protectionism either.

Oh, Kevin... Pragmatism, is that all you have to offer? :)

(I can't recall where that quote came from)

I think Americans just need to get used to our new incomes, get used to single income households, etc. The last at least seven years was all smoke and mirrors. USA hasn't been a power house since the couple of decades past WW2 and the only reason we were a manufacturing powerhouse then was because everyone else was either 1) rebuilding after being bombed all to hell or 2) too corrupt to be efficient.

We have too much competition now. Get used to it folks, it ain't such a big world anymore.

thunderlips11 says

You have to sell to buy. We make nothing to sell.

Now that's just an absurd claim. The US is still the world's second-largest exporter and largest overall manufacturer. That doesn't even include or abundance of agriculture, natural resources, and industries like software and entertainment that sell lots of things -- it just happens to come in a digital form and isn't assembled in a factory.

You people worry far too much. What matters is quality of life, not GDP. If China happens to surpass us in GDP at some point, what will it mean? Jack shit. Ever been to western Europe, Japan, Canada or Australia? They're all nice places to live, and are inferior to the US economically. We're not going to collapse into some third-world hell hole.

We borrow to buy. Where is all the money we need to pay off 30 years of borrowing going to come from?

Mostly from inflation, and partly from higher taxes, just like it always has. Our debt is not that big of a deal. People freak out because it's such an unfathomably large number, but they ignore that our GDP is also an unfathomably large number. Any competent budget expert, economist, or person who can do basic math can tell you that most wealthy countries are deeper in debt than we are. I would much rather be the $15t a year country with $10t in debt than the $1t a year country with $2t in debt.

I think Americans just need to get used to our new incomes, get used to single income households, etc.

Right. Prepare for diminishing returns, whitey. I see America readily embracing it, actually. To start with, most men dress with a third world sort of flair these days, from flip flops & cargo shorts, (the leisure suit of our generation), to the ubiquitous 1 guard haircut and the free promo t-shirt covered in Carl's Jr. There's even a push toward living in glorified yurts and 300 square foot sheds, under the premise of being carbon conscious.

The last at least seven years was all smoke and mirrors. USA hasn’t been a power house since the couple of decades past WW2 and the only reason we were a manufacturing powerhouse then was because everyone else was either 1) rebuilding after being bombed all to hell or 2) too corrupt to be efficient.

We have too much competition now. Get used to it folks, it ain’t such a big world anymore.

We always had competition from other industrialized nations, including the countries we helped rebuild after the war. Competition isn't the right word. China, India, etc., undersell our workforce by paying their people pennies on the dollar and treating them like chattel labor, as well as exploiting any corner that can possibly be cut when it comes to the actual manufacturing process/quality control. Sounds to me like cheating. How do you compete with that? Why would you want to? It's patently Un-American. Where we screwed ourselves was with our trade policy. I remember 1993/94 very well. The public betrayed any outrage over the not-so-fine print of NAFTA or GATT. Maybe it was because of the halcyon days of the tech boom, but the public indifference was glaring. Offshoring promised the American public and American industry a premium, and in a Faustian deal for a future full of three-for-the-price-of-one, the public welcomed an economic model that would ultimately set them up for a long spell over a barrel.

All said, I don't think I'd recognize Uncle Sam without his tit in the wringer. I suspect we'll create an even better smoke, and new and improved mirrors and hobble through on our bloody stumps for quite a while a longer.

4X,
the only "*" I would add is to the "NO, dont buy now". I "think" a person that finds exactly what they want in a price that reflects reality, who is able to do the pirchase correctly, should go ahead and do it -- unless renting is so much cheaper. Other than that one thing, I agree.

he only “*” I would add is to the “NO, dont buy now”. I “think” a person that finds exactly what they want in a price that reflects reality, who is able to do the pirchase correctly, should go ahead and do it — unless renting is so much cheaper. Other than that one thing, I agree.

IF you have a hearty set of gills and being underwater is a preference - I would agree. There are no prices reflecting reality (at least not in organic sales) and I openly defy anyone to show me such an example.

thunderlips11 says

We import something like $900B per year. We export, in total to all nations, around $300B a year. That is a $600B gap that must be Borrowed.

Try we export 1.3 trillion and import 2.1 trillion.

And we don't necessarily have to borrow for these things, because those numbers fail to consider what qualifies as an "import" or an "export" in official statistics -- imports are grossly over weighted because when an american company manufactures something in china and ships it to the US for sale, it is treated as an import, even though all the profits go to the american firm.

You also have the relationship backwards here. We don't *have to* borrow to have a trade deficit, but other countries *have to* lend, because there is really nothing else that they can do with those dollars.

The US economy is *HUGE*. The sky isn't falling.

thunderlips11 says

At some point, our eyes for Xboxes and Garden Gnomes will be bigger than the world’s stomach for our debt and we will have problems finding creditors with cash.

You mistakenly believe that it's foreign nations that are the biggest buyers of our debt. Our debt is owned (and purchased) primarily by government agencies and the fed, followed by domestic private investors, followed by foreign private investors, followed by foreign central banks. Don't let those big numbers from China fool you -- it's still just a tiny fraction of our total debt.

Again, these countries aren't buying our debt out of the goodness of their hearts. They're doing it because it directly benefits them. They're not going to start asking american consumers to buy goods in RMB or gold or anything else, so they have to do something with those dollars (and do it before inflation makes them worthless).

thunderlips11 says

Most other countries have gone into debt to fund infrastructure improvements, make capital investments in productive elements of their economies, and general improvements to the health and education of their working populations

The biggest components of every wealthy country's budgets (including the United States) is social services -- welfare, retirement, and health care funds.

While I agree that we should stop wasting so much money on the military and spend more on health care and education, we'd still have the debt, and, like all those other countries, we're going to have to accept that we need either higher taxes or lower spending if we want a balanced budget.

YES, we need to be more Business (Corporations) friendly. They are the ones who drive incomes for the community.
YES, Home buyers need to realize job outsourcing is the result of high debt/spending on homes
putting pressure on employers (Corporations) to control their own budgets and business goals.

"The US economy is *HUGE*. The sky isn’t falling."

It isnt a question of who is bigger, but who is growing. Back in the 1800s it was the US who was growing faster than Europe and we had a cheaper labor force than Europe which was by the way, deep in chaos with the Socialist movement.
The similarities between Europe then in the 1800s and the US now are striking.

Thunderlips said:
"but I’m not going to get into how US firms keep profits abroad while being allowed to report it as profit to shareholders."

Please enlighten me, I been responsible for my companies "overseas profits", How exactly does one keep profits overseas?

@ Kevin

Yes, we need to bring jobs back to America

From where? More than 2/3rds of the jobs “lost” in the US in the last 20 years simply don’t exist anymore. If you “brought back” the remaining manufacturing jobs that went to india or china you’d just kill those countries economies and make things in the US even worse.

Are you saying that from all the jobs that have been offshored American companies actually brought those positions back and/or discontinued those roles? Send me a link to where I can read up on that?

Yes, the home prices will be reset to pre-2000

Where, and why? Right now in many parts of the country houses are substantially cheaper on a monthly basis than they were in 2000. It’s only in bizarro-land like CA where things are really still outrageous. What does this have to do with protectionism?

Well, why do you think I posted this rant...I live in CA.

Yes, we need to regulate corporations, healthcare

I don’t even know what this is supposed to mean. We already do regulate corporations and health care — are you saying that we should do more of that? What does this have to do with protectionism?

Sorry, I am saying we need to reform the regulations that are currently in place. We need more incentives for businesses to increase their ability to turn a profit with less taxes and incentives to keep those jobs here in America. We need to find a way to reduce health care costs so Americans are not "1 illness away from bankruptcy" - Patrick. I dont know how, but i just know we need to do this so that we get out of this recession. Protecting our piece of the DREAM.

No, we cannot continue the trend of offshoring

Why not?

We are downsizing the middle class which means far less will be able to accomplish the American Dream. Not that many know how much hard work it takes to accomplish that dream.

No, home prices will not skyrocket again….ever

What an absurd statement to make. Of course home prices will skyrocket again at some point — shortly after the majority of people who made stupid decisions have forgotten what those stupid decisions were. Do you really think that the most recent period was the first case of a home price bubble? 30 years from now, inflation will make the house price run-up look like a blip on the charts, and you can be sure that once that happens we’ll see the return of ninja loans and strawberry pickers buying mansions.

Ok, I change my statement to "No, home prices will not skyrocket within the next 10 years so you should not rush to buy now." Many of my peers are in a rush to buy at a time where homes prices are falling..and why?...only to get into more debt and overextend themselves for a 800 SQFT cottage.

To answer your question, what does this have to do with protectionism? This has to do with protecting our DREAM here in America.

@Thomas.Wong

YES, we need to be more Business (Corporations) friendly. They are the ones who drive incomes for the community.

How do we do this? Looking at the below chart you see that businesses already pay far less in taxes, much less than the 2 Trillion contributed by average citizens like you and I. We couldnt even pay for our national defense with the 300B businesses contribute to the Federal Budget.

Not every person can be a mathematician, electronics engineer, or slick, good looking PR person. Look at the job creation of the past 5 years, even before the current recession. Almost every middle class job created was in Government; the Private Sector did not create one net Middle Class Professional Job.

Are hardworking Americans doomed to a life of drudgery, frequent unemployment, no health insurance and no retirement or security unless they are literally brilliant?

And what if you are brilliant in a practice that isn't on the cutting edge? Say, for instance, ice sculpture or torch singing?

A surprising number of people (not just Sci-Fi geeks) would posit that, ultimately, the human race will be, if not virtually extinct, totally anachronistic at some point in the distant future, replaced totally by technology, a future for which the age of automation is a portent. You may groan, but the fact that this notion is even part of the popular mindset reveals something about ourselves as a people; namely, a nod toward a smaller, eugenic society -- where only the literally brilliant are fit to exist and play, and where manufacture is a quaint notion, at best. Pretty gross.

All in all, a studious and thoroughly cogent retort, Mr. Lips.