patrick.net

@nomograph

“But wait”, you cry. “Investments are risky!” Well, life is risky and there are no guarantees. There will always be winners and losers. Try not to be a loser.

“But wait”, you cry. “I read on Patrick.net that America is toast and that there will be rioting and the economy will never recover, so I’m putting all my savings into gold!” Congratulations, you are well on your way to being a loser.

I agree, however, we can all take steps to reduce our personal risk. Now is the time to reduce debt, increase savings for when those opportunities arise if your not already in a position to do so.

I'm gonna take a loan against my home and invest in real estate. Real estate ALWAYS goes up.

4X says

I agree, however, we can all take steps to reduce our personal risk. Now is the time to reduce debt, increase savings for when those opportunities arise if your not already in a position to do so.

+1

More so than since shortly after the Depression, will there have ever been a greater opportunity for "Two Mules and Goat" stories. I think with in the next year and onward for a few years, those that managed to save. Will be in an extraordinary position to find cheap niche opportunities in almost every Brick and Mortar business, as well as other private investment opportunities, that will make the fantasy Real Estate market look like a suckers bet.

The trick is going to be, having a Mule and Goat to start with. Because the banks aren't going to be in the business of actually loaning money anymore. They will just have schemes and complex financial investment vehicles that allows banks to prosper and grow, on the ebb and flow of the myriad of Zombie banks siphoning off profits through losses.

"Regardless of what you can sell your product for, you still want to produce for as little as possible. So you can reap the “incredible profits” that you mention."

Clearly you don't have any financial background and haven't worked in an competitive enterprise.

A prime example of a bubble buster, sold for $1.2million in 2004 and now the banks don't even want 700k for it.

I tried to find the Steve Martin line from "let's get small" (recorded at the boarding house in San Francisco) where he talks about charging thousands of dollars per seat for his show, culiminating in the statement, "One show, I'm out."

...or some variation thereof. But I couldn't find it. It would've applied here.

I remember listening to that album as a kid pretending I got his humor.

I think if he didn't use props, crude bodily function humor, and played the banjo too, he wouldn't have had a career out side of doing stand up in the UCLA faculty lounge.

thomas.wong87 says

“Regardless of what you can sell your product for, you still want to produce for as little as possible. So you can reap the “incredible profits” that you mention.”
Clearly you don’t have any financial background and haven’t worked in an competitive enterprise.

lol--yes clearly.

It does not take 30 years to save the cash for a house. Make a spreadsheet. Some of you can look back upon the last 10 years in which you could have been socking it away -- you would have enough by now. Perhaps you can buy a cheaper house in a different city. Anyway, why are you not buying a business that can make money instead? A house can save on rent -- I wouldn't count on gains for a long while. That bubble is gone for good.

I tried to find the Steve Martin line from “let’s get small”

LOL! how about Robin Williams early line... "Reality, what a concept".

Lost Cause... no the bubble isn't gone just yet! As for socking away money, be sure to mention you are buying a house and not retiring the former homeowner, before his/her time. Recent homeowners made a huge gain at someone else's expense.

This is in the Toluca Lake/North Hollywood area of LA, less than a mile from the border with Burbank. It sold 2 months ago for $451k, but was never listed on the MLS (foreclosure? private deal?). Now its on the market for $670k. $220k increase in 2 months? What am I missing? The interior has been spruced up a bit (pergo, granite, paint) and has been well staged for sale, and it is 1800sf. But it is steps away from a secondary highway (Camarillo), and 3 blocks from the 134 freeway. It has no grass, no garage. A similar house about 500 feet away recently sold for $481k, after being on the market for 20 months, with an original asking price of $770k. Again, what am I missing here?

There's just looking for a sucker who doesn't know the facts you have listed here.

Nomograph says

Well, anyone who keeps their long-term savings in an exchange medium (cash) is being very foolish.

Hello from a fool. I have been putting my long term cash into bank and credit union CDs for quite some time. I shop and ladder for the highest rates. I still have a few CDs that are paying 5%-6%, although they will be coming up for renewal soon. I do not feel foolish at all compared to those I know that have invested long term in mutual funds or with a portfolio from an investment manager. I made money, and it is insured to boot.

I think it is foolish for common folk to invest any other way but the following:

Live within your means, so you can:
Pay off all credit cards first and then pay in full each month
Pay off car and then pay cash for replacement
Pay off mortgage by age 45
Put you savings into insured CDs, avoiding all the Churn&Burn, commission generating portfolios of stocks, bonds, commodities, and other inventions of the skimmers.

There may be a place for puts, calls, shorts, warrents, futures and other gambling. Just understand these are for fun and you will lose in the long run. Just like Ceaser's Palace.

I did do rental property, but that is more of a moonlighting part time job than an investment.

Right now I have a paid off residence, one paid off rental property, no car loans or any loans at all, and have over $500k saved up and stashed in various local banks and CUs.

I agree with chrisborden - Deflation, BRING IT ON!

HeadSet
November 1st, 2009 at 8:40 pm | top | quote | email this
Nomograph says

"I agree with chrisborden - Deflation, BRING IT ON!"

Very similar situation here. Agreed with the above post 100%, Gents. The day is coming fast where we will buy the internet genius posters so-called 'assets' for mere pennies on the retail dollar... Some will want pity, they certainly came to the wrong place for that. We tried to help them, they refused to listen. Now suffer. Have children? Too Bad. They will have to suffer too.
Get a Obama flu shot. That will solve all your problems...

The so-called 'financial' people who seem to be the most clueless people here. How do they hold on to a job? This recent statement especially amusing: "Clearly you don’t have any financial background and haven’t worked in an competitive enterprise". Ouch. I guess that means all my paid for hard assets and positive cash flows were mistakes.... Doh.

Joe whentheygonnaputyouout?

javco says

I agree with chrisborden - Deflation, BRING IT ON!”
Very similar situation here.

Unless you are retired, I don't think you will like deflation. Because you will likely lose your job. And even if you have enough savings to live on for the rest of your life, you still probably won't be happy as your kids lose their jobs and have to move back in with you...

Deflation is ugly. Definitely not something to wish for.

Deflation is the great leveler, it will be the Game over financial Reboot that was damn needed over 13 months ago before every Criminal Politician in Washington turned into a Crack addict.
It is now the inevitable unfortunately.

But much like the Flippers didn't give a Rats ass, about my questions of whether my kids would be able to afford a million plus for a Shit hole slum, in a ghetto in Detroit by the time they were old enough to buy a house; at the rate the bubble was going. I will not lose one second of sleep, at the thought that millions of lil crumb snatchers are going to be dolling out, in the form of a horse pill sized dose of Karma on those very same assholes that were perpetuating the myth real estate only goes up.

My daughters living home with the wife and me for an extra Decade, I say Where do I sign up.
I actually love my kids.

Money in the bank and prudence wins every time.

Tenouncetrout says

Money in the bank and prudence wins every time.

Not every time. During periods of inflation, money in the bank and prudence are big losers...

tatupu70 says

Deflation is ugly. Definitely not something to wish for.

The only way to stop deflation would have been to stop he runup in the first place. But the gov was more than happy to encourage massive public and private debt on the way up. Since so many spent future earnings to buy stuff today, they will have nothing to make purchases with in the future. Deflation is here whether you wish for it or not, and despite grand efforts by the gov to prevent it.

tatupu70 says

Tenouncetrout says

Money in the bank and prudence wins every time.

Not every time. During periods of inflation, money in the bank and prudence are big losers…

With money earning hardly 1% money in the bank is safe if not as stupid as putting into current real estate and losing it the very next day.

tatupu70 says

Not every time. During periods of inflation, money in the bank and prudence are big losers…

Compared to what? During the Carter inflation era, one could get 14% all day in CDs. Also, using accumulated cash to buy a house beats the tar out of using the then current 20% mortgage. The very high rates kept home prices low enough for cash purchases.

HeadSet says

Compared to what? During the Carter inflation era, one could get 14% all day in CDs. Also, using accumulated cash to buy a house beats the tar out of using the then current 20% mortgage. The very high rates kept home prices low enough for cash purchases.

Are you really arguing that having cash investments is OK during high inflation times? Yes CD rates will rise during inflationary times, but with most CDs your money is locked for a certain time period. And during inflation, your yield might look good when you invest, but won't match inflation by the time it matures.

HeadSet says

Also, using accumulated cash to buy a house beats the tar out of using the then current 20% mortgage.

Not necessarily. For example--right now I can get a 30 year mortgage at 5% (or so). Historically, buying the S&P 500 will get you somewhere in the ballpark of 7-9% annually depending on who compiles the numbers and when exactly they were calculated. Either way, you're ahead putting down 20% and investing the rest. Especially after you can deduct the interest on the loan. And it's also a pretty good inflation hedge.

Before all you doomsayers tell me I'm an idiot and that stocks are due to drop 80% in the next year--they may. They may not. Noone knows--not Buffet, not Roubini, especially not anyone on this board. One thing I do know--you don't make money in the long term by trying to time the market.

Looks like you're near a park, and Okanagan lake/valley area isn't bad to live...I would live there myself. :-)

tatupu70 says

Tenouncetrout says

Money in the bank and prudence wins every time.

Not every time. During periods of inflation, money in the bank and prudence are big losers…

So spend less and charge more.

It only takes one bad day on the stock market to make savers look like the velvet rope crowd.

Saving is parking your money somewhere you can add to it and make it grow by adding more to it.
Interest on it, was just gravy and an incentive to get people to not stash it under your mattress.

Investing is investing that is putting your money to work for you. This is a different motive all together than saving money.
And the smart investor should always go into each day with the idea that today could be the day your investments are gone.

One can save and invest, it is just not smart to consider either, one and the same.

Save money(pay your self), Pay your debts, invest the rest. That is classic prudence, and in that order. That has worked for over 60 years or more.
This neo Keynesian economy is like Windows Me, where the Financial gurus, keep applying patches and service release updates. While not addressing the issue that it don't work, rather than just going back to operation system worked best last.

Nomograph says

“But wait”, you cry. “Inflation punishes savers!” Well, anyone who keeps their long-term savings in an exchange medium (cash) is being very foolish. There are many time-tested investment and savings vehicles that provide safety, growth, and protection from inflation.

This is complete and utter nonsense. Where are these safe vehicles? They do not exist. If this statement had any validity at all we would not see gold at $1060 and rising.

The only way to protect yourself from inflation is to take risks.

@tenouncetrout

Save money(pay your self), Pay your debts, invest the rest. That is classic prudence, and in that order. That has worked for over 60 years or more.

LOL. If you have used that system for 60 years then you are one old dude. What are you, like 80 years old?

Purchased 1172sqft 4th floor corner unit in 06 for 260k. Thank goodness this is a long-term investment, as we have no plans to move for at least a decade or so. And yet, this was one of the cheapest places in Kelowna at the time. Especially on a per square foot basis. Sad, actually.

@Thunderlips

Don’t forget that Auto Workers have been putting up with massive “Give Backs” for 20 years already. The days of making $30/hr + benefit costs are long since over. It’s more like $15/hr or less. When the Big Three whine about the costs of Labor, they’re factoring in all the money they SHOULD have put aside to pay for their retirees.

That is interesting, I always thought they were griping about paying HIGH wages. So, it was the pensions that were running up their costs?

The AMA represents the interests of the AMA.

Ortho's are boning up on the proposal. Gastroenterologists are finding it hard to swallow. Cardiologists didn't have the heart for it. Dermatologists are pretty thick-skinned, can go either way. Dentists are looking down in the mouth at it. Gerontologists think the whole thing's getting old...

HOA $485 Property Tax ~$400? --------------- Asking Rent - $1750 to $2100 Asking Price - $325k to $399k

thunderlips11 says

I know little about chips used in other products, but in personal and desktop computing the Japanese were never big players.

Did you list DRAM dumbing in the 80s and Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment bundled and sold below cost to capture market share ? Illegal copy infringement on Intel's CPU Patents (NEC V20, V30)? Do you think they play by the rules?

"Don’t forget that Auto Workers have been putting up with massive “Give Backs” for 20 years already. The days of making $30/hr + benefit costs are long since over. It’s more like $15/hr or less. When the Big Three whine about the costs of Labor, they’re factoring in all the money they SHOULD have put aside to pay for their retirees"

The typical line workers get a lot more in salary and benefits.
Compare that to their Japanese counterpart.

"Represented by the UAW, Detroit's auto workers have long received wages and health care plus a "30-and-out" retirement plan that provides a full pension and health care for retirees and their spouses after three decades of service. Those benefits have made Detroit's labor costs the highest in the auto business: The three makers estimate that unionized workers cost them more than $70 an hour, factoring in benefits and retirement, compared with $40 to $45 for Honda and Toyota. Health-care costs alone increase the price of Detroit-brand vehicles by as much as $1,000 to $1,500 compared with a U.S.-made Toyota, they estimate"

At these wages, it would make any Tech worker blush! Benefits for a SV worker runs around 10-15% so Detroit worker gets about the same as here. The outcome for SV may well be the same one day.

Good lord, that thing is Texan-sized! Nice reduction in price. Looks like I don't have the right point on the map for it though, unless that was just a field when the satellie photo was taken.

"Too lazy to google but I bet one won’t come across any names that have been household names in the past 10-15 years"

The same you see today... Toshiba, Sony, Hitachi, Fijitsu... I dare say I actually used some of these back in the day.
http://www.old-computers.com/museum/computer.asp?st=1&c=137
http://www.old-computers.com/museum/computer.asp?st=1&c=326
http://www.old-computers.com/museum/computer.asp?st=1&c=788
http://laptops.toshiba.com/about/about-Toshiba
"The fact is, there are lots of laptops out there. But if you really want a laptop expert; turn to us―Toshiba. We introduced the first laptop personal computer back in 1985"
NEC (1975)
http://www.old-computers.com/museum/computer.asp?st=1&c=405

Seriously, whose Chips were being put into Sony BetaMax and other electronics equipment back in the 70s ?
It wasnt ours.. they did their own and later made a grab for US electronics markets.

"No doubt they did a lot of outsourcing, but it was all to Taiwan, Malaysia, Mainland China."

No it wasn't "they" who outsourced to the Asian Tiger nations, it was the US manufacturers in SV, in response to JP price cuts.
By 1991-93 the last few plants were mothballed. That is why we still have a glut of commercial buildings since the past 15+ years.

What Holidays? And Mary Kay is here for our Wimin'? That's Hot! http://www.celebrityrockstarguitars.com/images/marykayetrio.jpg

Jeez Louise that is a mess. What the hell is going on there?! Seriously, looks like an architecture student got a little too taken with an Italian medieval monastery studied in 'history of design 201' and went rogue.

http://www.anaquasprings.com They call this style Euro-Texan. Nice homes if you have the money. The property on Cat Springs backs to a creek. I has a rather small back yard however. At least for an acre of land. BTW, each house is wired for FTTH. (Fiber to the home) For both Internet and HDTV. Cool.

Why can't we all just be silently indifferent?

@Nomo

I agree, there is a backlash from conservatives now that Obama is in office. I am conservative-progressive and have not agreed with all that Congress or the president have done to counter the economic downturn however, I am still open to giving them a chance to return our country to prominence. For example, I agree with Obama's 250B tax cut in the economic stimulus package but I don not agree with the 540B loan he took out to increase government spending. Even if that 540B saved 1 million jobs. This rant is far right, where as most conservatives and liberals generally can meet in the middle.

(1) If a conservative doesn’t like guns, he doesn’t buy one. If a liberal doesn’t like guns, he wants guns outlawed.

How about we just outlaw and regulate the guns that go to criminals.

(3) If a conservative is homosexual, he quietly leads his life. If a liberal is homosexual demands legislated respect.

Either way, homosexualality should not be the top priority of any legislation. Our economy, healthcare reform, and spending cuts need to take top priority.

(4) If a person of color is conservative they get harassed by other’s. Their liberal counterparts see themselves as victims in need of government help and protection.

People of color do not vote conservative because 1/4 of all the liberal Democratic constituency left the party when the Civil Rights act of 1964 passed. This implied that these people did not want equality for persons of color and were against any progressive movements. Neither the Republican/Democratic party has not attempted to pass any legislation that would benefit persons of color since however. Being conservative for most means that things do not need to change and this policy will not work for persons of color whom have been held back for the past 400 years. Conservatives need to start reaching out to people of color and placing less focus on War, big business, and tax breaks for the rich.

(5) If a conservative is down and out, he works to better himself. A liberal wonders who is going to take care of him.

This is not true, I like many others was liberal and worked my way out of poverty. It just so happens that the liberal party appeals to those who live in lower economic conditions and need someone to assist them in getting out of poverty. If it had not been for my Sallie Mae school loan I would not have been able to obtain my degree. This money is not going to waste for those whom are driven and accomplished. Conservatives need to stop painting poor people as lazy if they want to appeal to this demographic.

(6) If a conservative doesn’t like a talk show host, he switches channels. Liberals demand those they don’t like be shut down.

Maybe this is because of the negative, race and hate filled undertone that is taken by conservative pundits when they debate the issues. As a conservative, I myself find it difficult to listen to some of the conservative pundits who speak as if poverty, race and gender discrimination are not a problem for the party.

(7) If a conservative decides he needs health care, he buys it or may look for a job that provides it. A liberal demands that the rest of us pay for his.

Or he simply goes bankrupt and dies, all because he is too stupid to realize that some social welfare is necessary to keep our citizens from experiencing the same fate as those in 3rd world countries. Yes, these social programs need to be reformed to make them financially solvent but in no form should anyone die because a insurance provider refuses to pay for services.

(8) If a conservative slips and falls in a store, more likely than not, he gets up, laughs and is perhaps embarrassed. If a liberal slips and falls, more likely than not he grabs his neck, moans like he’s in labor and then sues.

This is silly, we live in a highly litigious and capitalistic society in which everyone sues. We should stop attempting to paint conservatives as a bunch of do gooders. We have opportunists as well.

(9) If a conservative reads this, he’ll forward it so his friends have a good laugh. A liberal will not because he’s “offended”.

Well, it was designed to offend liberals and to paint conservatives as picture perfect when in truth a mix of both ideals is what will be necessary to bring our country back to prominence.

Conservatives....If you dont like social welfare you can leave our country and go to Mexico!
Liberals....If you dont think we need to reduce government spending you can leave our country and go to Denmark!
Conservatives...If you dont think we need healthcare, get really sick and see if any insurance companies pick up the cost!
Liberals...if you think we should continue funding broken programs then maybe you need lessons on personal finance!
Conservatives...if you dont think we need Medicare, Welfare try getting old and losing your job then see how you feel!
Liberals...if you think our government is not mismanaging Medicare, Welfare, Social Security find out first if these programs are broke!

"(3) If a conservative is homosexual, he quietly leads his life. If a liberal is homosexual demands legislated respect."

Ha! That's a trick question. Everybody knows that if a Conservative doesn't like homosexuality, he goes to the airport bathroom and taps his foot then runs his hand under the adjacent occupied stall.

"(4) If a person of color is conservative they get harassed by other’s. Their liberal counterparts see themselves as victims in need of government help and protection."

Black people become Conservative republicans because they never get tired of hearing... "except you." from their fellow white right republicans, following comments about the ails of the people of color.