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Number of Homes On Market- Seasonal?


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2010 Mar 27, 8:30am   2,262 views  6 comments

by Ptipking222   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I'm a bit skeptical of numbers reported in the media, and since real estate is largely local, I've started following the number of homes that are on the market in zip codes in my area.

I've noticed a pretty large jump from last month- about 10-15%. Is that typical of March since we are entering the spring season, or is that a sign of weakness?

I understand there's more homes sold in the spring-summer, but for every buyer there is a seller, so shouldn't the amount on the market stay roughly the same?

#housing

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1   grywlfbg   2010 Mar 27, 10:12am  

No. Houses are placed onto the market and removed from the market all the time for all sorts of reasons - they are not always sold. Sometimes people go "fishing" to see what they can get and if they can't get it they pull the home off the market. Some decide to keep their home and try to rent it, etc.

The number of homes on the market definitely varies throughout the year. People tend to list in the Spring in order to take advantage of nicer weather in which to hold open houses and also to buy/sell and be settled in by the time the new school year starts in August.

2   thomas.wong1986   2010 Mar 27, 2:41pm  

grywlfbg says

Sometimes people go “fishing” to see what

Which screws up all the sales and inventory data which is published to the public.

3   seaside   2010 Mar 27, 3:27pm  

Typical spring home shopping season, and this year is kind of special.

People have waited for years, some of them just can not wait any longer, and this is the last chance of getting obama credit. Sellers are well aware of it, thus, you may be able to see lot of homes sold at 2009 and early 2010 come back to market at higher price. Well, at least, that's what I am seeing in my area.

4   elliemae   2010 Mar 28, 12:43am  

Nomograph says

Ptipking222 says


I’ve noticed a pretty large jump from last month- about 10-15%. Is that typical of March since we are entering the spring season, or is that a sign of weakness?

Yes, the housing market always heats up in spring and early summer. This is largely due to folks wanting to move in summertime when the kids are not in school, as well as weather making it easier to travel around and view houses. Homes also tend to show better in spring and early summer with the flowers blooming, trees leafing out, and a stronger sun making the inside lighter and brighter.
seaside says

People have waited for years, some of them just can not wait any longer,

As seaside said, there is a large amount of pent-up demand. Patient market-watchers have been getting in the game so they can get on with their lives and raise families in a stable home. After all, there is much more to life than waiting for housing prices to drop and most folks, even on this forum, have realized that prices have bottomed in many nice areas.

I do agree that housing probably has bottomed out in many areas - and if someone is looking to buy, they should weigh out whether the house is the one that they want to live in for 10+ years, etc. You know, is the area what they want, does the house meet their current and projected future needs, etc? And will they want to stay in the place if the value drops further? If they have to move, can they rent it out for the payment - or will they be able to sell? These are important questions that should be asked now and should have been asked in bubbledays. However, with prices rising at the rate that they did back then, all reason went out the window.

If someone is looking for an investment property, IMHO that's different. I still think that housing will drop in some areas - and blindly investing, like burritos, is playing with fire. I wouldn't buy a place I didn't physically see, and I certainly wouldn't rely on the word of someone whose salary relied on my buying.

5   Fireballsocal   2010 Mar 28, 1:20am  

seaside says

you may be able to see lot of homes sold at 2009 and early 2010 come back to market at higher price. Well, at least, that’s what I am seeing in my area.

My area also. I am seeing some of the homes investors bought over the last year come back on the market with the old lipstick and rouge treatment. Some houses are legitimately repaired/upgraded and some have a coat of paint and the cobwebs knocked off. Lots of people bidding and the realtors quoted in the news are worried there aren't enough houses coming onto the market to satisfy demand. Geeze I wish Arnold hadn't passed that 10K state tax credit.

6   azrob00   2010 Mar 29, 4:16am  

the number of homes in foreclosure is way up over last year.
The number of homes 90 days late on their mortgage is way up over last year.
Several million homes have had their foreclosure postponed due to HAMP and other attempted workouts, many will not be given a permanent workout, others will re default.
long term unemployed are running out of benefits, making their homes harder to keep.
Buyers credit is ending, buying will drop off.
FED purchases of mortgage backed securities is ending, rates are likely to rise.
Fannie/Freddie/FHA continue losing boatloads of money, will need to tighten lending and/or raise fees.

Don't believe the hype, there are way too many stormclouds out there in housing.
the two people above me, both claiming the 'bottom is in' with nothing more than wishful thinking, and a couple of months of increasing prices due to the aforementioned factors are basically nitwits.

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