patrick.net

Well, I tend to judge based on the content of one's posts, not their self proclaimed titles...

yes, how can we consider Greece or Iceland.. After all Greece has massive federal deficits, and Iceland's banks are insolvent. I'm certainly glad the US doesn't have either of those problems! Good thing we have a balanced budget, and don't have to bailout our banks!

when I first wrote that housing prices would collapse, I cited Japan as an example. at that time everybody told me "how can you compare the US to japan, US prices will never go down..."

azrob00 says

You have used the “if interest rates rise, who cares, prices rise with rates” line at least a dozen times on here; Now you are contradicting yourself. clearly if rates rise now, your statements logic is obvious: it won’t matter for house prices, when it obviously will. Why do you think the government drove mortgage rates down to 5%? because rate means nothing to home prices? good thinking!

As someone with a PhD, I would think you would see the flaw in your logic. Interest rates won't rise (much) during a recession with so many out of work.

The prices are set by what is paid. So, the graph of price versus year is the graph of what buyers paid versus the year.

It means that the graph of home prices in Japan versus the year is the graph of prices the buyers paid versus the year.

Therefore I suppose around about the year 1994 buyers in Japan were saying things like,

"We are now 4.3 years after the (..) peak in real estate! I know it doesn’t seem like it has been that long but it has. Prices go up from here.

I don't have prediction for the next 12 months.

Probably though you will share some of my view for the long term of the region, not in the next 12 months or by the end of this year but over the next decade

prices will be continue to be higher here than in most of the rest of the US,

workers will continue to get "less house for more money" (ie, the the purchasing power of their wages will not scale with the cost of housing) here than in most of the rest of the US,

elite Asian families will continue to buy their kids into the Bay Area via the graduate school route,

the region will not become the next Detroit although some of its industries may,

new industries will emerge as they have done in the past, but we will not be able to predict what they will be because like the other industries that emerged here, they were beyond imagination at the time when they coulda been predicted,

The high cost of living (housing) here will continue to drive a lot of working class folks out of the region which will bring the labor market back into balance.

Yep.

I think what was different then, an anomaly that lasted about as long as Bush-Greenspan were using (succeeding at) loose monetary policy to goose credit. I don't think it will work anymore, at least not for awhile. You have wrote on here a lot (to paraphrase) that loose credit and easy money will rise again.

We shall see, then you can tell me I'm wrong again for another seven years.

sybrib says

I think what was different then, an anomaly that lasted about as long as Bush-Greenspan were using (succeeding at) loose monetary policy to goose credit

Not to put too fine a point on it, but loose monetary policy and loose credit are two completely different animals. There is very little correlation between the two.

maybe two different animals, no argument there.
We had them both

azrob00 says

History doesn’t repeat, it rhymes, and this crisis will play out differently, but it will play out. and with something like 15% of homeowners not paying their mortgages, you can rest assured it isn’t finished playing out!

Where did you see the 15% number. Last I saw it was like 6.5% of homeowners 30 days + behind on their mortgage?

15% is arizona, nevada, florida. Cali is something like 11% Nation as a whole is probably your number.

E-man says

SF ace says
Warren Buffet recently said that we need to build on an average 1.2 million new homes annually to keep up with demand. He predicted that we would see a housing recovery in 2011. Wow, he’s pretty optimistic. So the less they build, the better it is for the housing market down the road.

I don't believe in Oracles. Neither one of the two.

michaelsch says

But this is not the case now.

Basically your entire post boils down to that statement. This time it's different.

Maybe you are right. But, that's exactly what the housing bulls were saying when people brought up the fact that it looked a lot like a bubble...

michaelsch says

2010 is radically different than 1992 or 1983 or 1974, or for this matter also 1929 because in all those years US had real economy producing real goods and services consumed in US and abroad.

And I have to comment on this. I'm so tired of people implying that we don't manufacture things in the US anymore. Bullshit.

Let the government remove it's buying incentives and support of the banks, and then I'll call bottom. I still think 2012 (and now maybe 2014 after all the government intereference and bank shenanigans) will be closer to bottom in the fortress areas.

For example we have the house next door up for sale. We didn't know that back in 2000 or whenever, they bought for $200,000 over asking on an interest only loan - they can now not get it refinanced and have to sell - some quick tricks and a new kitchen and they now want $1.249m for it. Let's see what it gets shall we? I'll update you when we hear.......

My point is - I think there are a lot of people out there that we assume got safe loans that actually did some kind of fancy financing and are now hitting brick walls.

tatupu70 says

michaelsch says

2010 is radically different than 1992 or 1983 or 1974, or for this matter also 1929 because in all those years US had real economy producing real goods and services consumed in US and abroad.

And I have to comment on this. I’m so tired of people implying that we don’t manufacture things in the US anymore. Bullshit.

Well, then let us hear about our manufacturing. What do we manufacture and how does it compare to the days of automakers, steel, appliances etc.

Leigh says

Well, then let us hear about our manufacturing. What do we manufacture and how does it compare to the days of automakers, steel, appliances etc.

I think it's been posted on here previously, but I'll try to get a breakdown. In the meantime, just a quick fact-- US is world's largest manufacturer with a 2007 industrial output of $2.69T

One distinction worth noting is our comparatively anemic exports. Germany is actually the largest exporter of manufactured goods (high quality goods, I might add). It is also worth noting that employee compensation (except, of course, for C level executives) in manufacturing is also a fraction of what it was ten and twenty years ago in America.

Futurists cite this as merely part of creative destruction, insisting that America will reinvent itself to become a population of inventors and entrepreneurs while total automation takes over where manufacturing leaves off. That's where I smell bullshit.

I work in hc and read labels frequently out of curiosity. Plus, I was in a recent debate about where our medications are manufactured. Sure we might ASSEMBLE some stuff in the USA but I'd guess we import even more.

I stumbled upon this interesting site while searching for data: http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html

Note the "Medicinal preparations" from Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, UK. Italy and Spain

Then there is the "Other medical equipment"

Total US imports of "Medicinal preparations" is $78.9 BILLION$ in 2008

And here is the link for US Exports: http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_exports.html

I wonder what the difference is between 'medicinal preparations' and 'pharmaceutical preparations'. Is that like the difference between 'crude oil' and 'fuel oil'?

It could be easily argued ENTERTAINMENT.... Tv shows, movies, music and pop culture / Celebrity in general is one of the united states greatest exports! AVATAR and most movies make far more overseas than they do in the US.

Can someone tell me the price of a house in China? I figure in the the US it won't drop below that level. I think I read it was about $60k-$80k. Anyone?

Landru3000 says

No? Sorry, but who do you think we are competing with for jobs and wage levels? I’d say wages are going to settle somewhere between what they mexico, and china.

Are you predicting the same for Eurpoeans?