patrick.net

Is PeterP still shorting TOL?
The buillder stocks are taking a hit.
tinyurl.com/qyjlr

No. Too bad.

SQT,

The bomb! I couldn't believe it. We're #7 folks so we try harder! While it will undoubtedly make a hysterical thread I'm gonna go one better. Have you noticed how quickly Hollywood turns real life events into a movie of the week? We can beat them to the punch. A complete "made for TV" script on standby and at the ready to deliver to material starved studio head honchos before the actual events have taken place! I mean seriously, what can Lereah or anyone do at this point to put the steering wheel back on the column. Libel? Truthfully, is anyone THAT worried? I think I have a "working title".

HOW ONE MAN BUILT THE PROMISE OF EARLY RETIREMENT AND EASY MONEY:

(And bankrupted a nation)

The David Lereah Story:

Oh sure we'll do all the obligatory "early years" stuff where young David learns his first scam by offering to cut lawns for blind widows by just running the lawn mower at full throttle (with the parking brake set) while raiding the neighbors freezer for popsicles. We'll have enough "filler" material to keep us in production shooting until the actual crash event takes place and by that time the script will be fairly polished. I've heard you can "hawk" your script on the entertainment message boards while in pre-production so what are we waiting for!

It’s tough for me to stomach that an “economy” car costs 20k. Yikes.

Get a late 90's Lexus LS400.

This is why I’m hoping the economy implodes. At least my car won’t look out of place anymore.

I do want to be driving the worst car in a neighborhood. This is actually a semi-requirement when we finally buy.

SQT,

He is the man of the hour!

But that's the weird thing about RE. There really isn't anything resembling accountablility. He'll probably get fired but given the way that Realtors TM operate under what statute would he be prosecuted? David told a nation to go out and buy all the house your lenders will let you! But he didn't tell any one individual specifically. I don't even know how much success any of us would have with a local realtor that cooked the appraisal, got a kick back from the mortgage broker and slept in the same bed with the seller?

SQT,

Yeah, there have been some storm clouds gathering on that front and my guess is that much of the blame (rightly or wrongly) will be shifted to the mortgage brokers. The realtor handled the transaction BUT the broker handled the money end. Is it fair, is it right? I don't know. There is so much blame to go around there's enough for everybody! I have no idea what kind of an advance DL got for his books. What would rub me the wrong way is that I was wrong. So wrong. I hate being wrong more than being broke! DL probably isn't "wired" that way though.

Just make sure you take advantage of the great outdoors and take a walk down Market and Castro just to broaden your experience. If you’re really headed out of here, you might as well leave with some interesting stories.

Methinks FRIFY and I share an existentialist streak.

Ray W,

Good read. The only important disagreement I can find is the statement

"The day will come when it costs less to buy than it does to rent."

That is bad advice, and those who follow its implications strictly will never buy even when they probably should consider doing so.

Rents seldom exceed ownership holding costs, and really haven't since WWII except for in very specific areas affected by secular localized deflation (like the Rust-Belt or depopulating farmlands).

I don't think the BA will go the way of Detroit, but for this argument it doesn't matter if I am right or wrong about that. If the BA doesn't go the way of Detroit, then rent will not be lower than holding costs; if it does then you almost certainly won't want to own a home here anyway.

*rent will not be HIGHER than holding costs

All of a sudden I'm not having much difficulty visualizing buyers asking their realtors "Don't show me ANYTHING that was purchased in 2005".

Don't show me anything purchased in 2004.

Don't show me anything purchased after 2000!

After the few buyers that ARE out there actively seeking a home have kicked through one over priced sh!tbox after another they are going to have to draw the line! I mean from a pure practicality standpoint. My husband doesn't get home from work until 6:00pm and we only have an hour before kids/dinner/homework etc. Please stop showing us these places where the seller is upside down and can't afford to come down on price, unless! They are willing to negotiate a short sale. If not, please don't waste our time and start showing us "pre-2002" purchases or we'll find someone that will.

I think, DL is trying to do the smart thing for himself and NAR. They need to find some reason rather than admitting the speculative excesses they were cheerleading.

See it is the Fed that spoiling the party !

This can boomrang. What if BB gets cold feet and NOT increase the rate and the bubble still explodes ?

Methinks FRIFY and I share an existentialist streak.

...as I do with my 3 year old daughter who has taken an inexplicable interest in an old Camus paperback ("The Possessed"). I'm afraid I do her a disservice by answering her philosophical "why"s with literal materialistic responses.

I never took any philosophy courses in college, but The Teaching Company's lecture series are great. I re-recommend them for any commute longer than 20 minutes. Robinson's overview is fantastic, but the specialized "No excuses - Existentialism" is pretty good as well.

Now I'm fully prepared to deal with all the grief so bring it on.

Well what if a couple paid CASH in 2005 and just wants out? They're entertaining all offers!

O.K, I'm willing to allow that.

Well what if some couple bought in 1985 but have House ATM'd it to death? Couldn't they owe more than the place is worth? Don't know, don't care. Since Surfer X has already well established that this person basically "re-purchased" their home, it would not qualify. Please don't show it to me.

I realize that there is really no buyers "union" but can you see how this can very easily become the standard practice?

BTW Randy, are you feeling a little better about your cash position these days? ;-)

To BA or not,

Yeah, that boomerang effect came up on Ben's and someone astutely pointed out that DL had absolutely no issue with the FED taking rates to 1%! Down in the traders pit at the "Merc" that question was put to one of the traders and they guy basically said that the distance between 1% and 5% was a given. Now the real debate on the cost of money begins.

Ignore this date, because when Christianity took over the Roman calendar, in the 4th Century, the monk who compiled the dates got it wrong.

But the Mayan calendar ends on December 21, 2012. If we get a 7/1 ARM now, it may not reset until the end of the world. :-P

Peter P,

That's what we like about you! Always thinking. You know though there is a semblance of truth there. So many of these folks that took out "suicide loans" seem to share your appreciation for Mayan history.

Jon Said:

http://investor.ninemsn.com.au/investor/osshares/usreview/story_detail.asp?index=19171

Is this stagflation?

No. Not even close yet.

So many of these folks that took out “suicide loans” seem to share your appreciation for Mayan history.

I wonder if "suicide loans" have anything to do with human sacrifice. You know, a house is not worth getting your heart ripped out. :-P

FRIFY,

I'll feel even better in the coming days I think. I feel yet even better that I rebalanced my risky portfolio thereby selling off the over-weighting that had emerged from my tiny position in gold, copper etc. about 3 weeks ago, though.

Diversification is sometimes almost magical.

"The bay area is, in my opinion, the most racially and politically progressive area in the country."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Right, no one in Palo Alto, Los Altos, Menlo Park, Atherton, etc. etc. has even SEEN a black person except on the WB. They love to brag about how racially progressive they are, but then scurry behind their gate and start fretting when one actually walks by. They love diversity -- just not in THEIR neighborhood.

And they love Latinos too -- I mean, who else is going to clear their dishes when they're done scarfing porcini raviolis while chatting on their cell phone about how racially progressive they are as compared to people in Toledo?

You're hilarious. Keep on deluding yourself -- it makes great entertainment for the rest of us.

Robert Cote'

So true. What few buyers are out there will learn this quickly. Looking back they will say.

Yeah, back in 06 we bought a real nice older place from a nice older couple, nothing special. Sure, we looked at a few of those McMansions but just when we were ready to sign the paperwork the whole deal would fall apart. We were never sure, I don't know foreclosed, filed bankruptcy or some damn thing. We're real happy now though. They'd been here a long time and made a lot of improvements. Real nice folks.

I mean, who else is going to clear their dishes when they’re done scarfing porcini raviolis while chatting on their cell phone about how racially progressive they are as compared to people in Toledo?

I will only eat open-face raviolis.

Peter P,

I can't say for sure. Never really had one. But if I was going to go neg. am. this would be the time. Unless there is some sort of acceleration clause?

Right, no one in Palo Alto, Los Altos, Menlo Park, Atherton, etc. etc. has even SEEN a black person except on the WB.

Have you been to the part of Menlo Park that still has SFHs for under 750K?

We need a world in which people of all races work together. However, forced diversity will not work. We must get to the root of the problem in order to fix it.

about how racially progressive they are as compared to people in Toledo?

The BA area is far more progressive on every dimension than Toledo. Trust me. If not, I can arrange for a personal reality tour for you. Bad example.

I was unaware that there was any significance to 6/6/06. It's strange b/c I consider myself something of a an expert in theology. Well, I've seen all of the "Exorcist" movies and a great many of the "Omen" franchise as well.

"The BA area is far more progressive on every dimension than Toledo."

That depends on your standard of measurement. If your benchmark is having more German cars, Mexican busboys, and designer Italian sunglasses than Toledo, then the Bay Area is most definitely more progressive and diverse.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Right, no one in Palo Alto, Los Altos, Menlo Park, Atherton, etc. etc. has even SEEN a black person except on the WB. They love to brag about how racially progressive they are, but then scurry behind their gate and start fretting when one actually walks by. They love diversity — just not in THEIR neighborhood.

This is definitely a fair charge. Coming out here from the east coast, I was shocked at how white everyone was (although you have to confess that Asians and Indians are pretty well integrated).

The big difference is the automobile and NIMBY property rules. People can get in their car in their white neighborhood, drive to their white workplace and never engage with the invisible latino population. In the denser east coast cities where it's easier to get around in mass transit than in cars, people don't freak when they see a black face in their neighborhood.

At least out here, they freak and then feel bad about it. Everyone from every race has latent racist tendencies; the degree with which you fight to keep yours in your ID and out of your actions can be thought of as "progressive". Anti-development NIMBY rules qualify as non-progressive by this metric.

The only black community south of SF was East Palo Alto, and the last time I drove by Whiskey Gulch it had been bulldozed in favor of luxury condos with BIG GATES around them, and some sparkling new big box stores.

Palo Alto Diversity = Having both Best Buy and Circuit City.

Were they as freaked out in DIES IOVIS A.D. VIII ID. IVN. MDCCLIX A.U.C.?

For those unfamiliar with the Roman style Julian Clandar, that would be in Latin:

Dies Iovis vi Junius MVI.

newsfreak,

Toledo is just a real bad example. Race riots there just a couple months ago. Lots of rural farmers who are up in arms about invading foreign immigrants.

They're talking about Dutch farmers. But they don't blame anyone but those "Dutch", who must be ethnically and morally inferior to themselves.

if you are married, how many kids, which to my mind is illegal.

It is. Report them.

Red Whine,

I'll go the mat with you on Toledo. Pick another example. Either you are a proud Toledan, or you have never spent any significant time there.

Newsfreak,

quick seach:

http://www.workplacefairness.org/index.php?page=file_CA&agree=yes

How will he get his if nobody slaps him silly?

"I’ll go the mat with you on Toledo. Pick another example. Either you are a proud Toledan, or you have never spent any significant time there."

I'll go to the mat with you, but not over Toledo. I've got to pick my battles. I'll concede this round -- and I'll even let you pick the replacement. Pittsburgh, or Wichita?

newsfreak,

No, real live just landed Dutch. They are moving into many rapidly depopulating Midwestern Counties, buying the land up cheap, and setting up large dairy farming operations. It's a long, complicated tale, but my wife's home county (outside of Toledo) is the 2nd largest recipient of these newcomers. Google it, you'll see there's a whole "thing" going on, and that the response from locals is pretty openly bigoted.

Randy H,

I had a client in "Cincy" and a few years back they actually had to enforce a curfew or some kind of marshall law. Ugly stuff. This much I can tell you is that I have cold called all over the U.S and no where are they more rude than in the BA! Well except maybe Seattle.