patrick.net

Here here...

Trust me, were still crackpots. We were crackpots when we were telling them that the bubble couldn't last. We were crackpots when we told them that the crash will affect there "special" town / neighborhood. We were crackpots when we said it wasn't just a sub-prime problem it would affect the higher priced neighborhoods and homes. And were still crackpots because we say things are not going to get any better any time soon. From what I read from one economic Crackpot, that for every year of prosperity there are two years of depression. So if housing began to expand in 2000 and peaked in 2005, it should take until 2015 until things bottom out and the next expansion begins.

- TechGromit, A crackpot and Proud of it.

Los Angeles Renter says

Not to mention, Japan is nearly 80% urban… quite a big difference than the U.S. We are spoiled with land in the U.S

I was writing something about Tokyo and then I deleted it. I'll try again:

Japan doesn't have low-density zoning (AFAICT anyone can build anything subject to limits on total sqft vs lot area). Property taxes are rather nominal in Tokyo (~0.4%) and wages are being supported by massive government borrowing (ie. under-taxation). 35 year Interest rates are under 2.5%. Tokyo itself is pulling all the wealth and youth of the country into itself.

Without all that land in Tokyo wouldn't be so expensive still. Here in the US we're only about 1/3 the way there, policy-wise.

The average condo price is ~$500,000 in Tokyo. Land itself is around 35% of peak, nation-wide.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-21/japan-land-price-declines-slow-for-first-time-since-2007-as-buyers-return.html

I'd say you guys are on the bearish side of housing ALMOST ALL THE TIME.

While Patrick's efforts are ESSENTIAL, it should always be looked at in context. Eventually there will be good opportunities out there and I doubt the naysayers will become Bulls.

kronicade says

I’d say you guys are on the bearish side of housing ALMOST ALL THE TIME.

Since this forum has existed, there has been no reason to be bullish. Would you have people ignore high unemployment, over 90% of all home loans backed by the government, and STILL record-high foreclosures just so as not to be bearish "all the time"? Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Perhaps people are bearish because the housing market IS bearish.

TechGromit says

Trust me, were still crackpots. We were crackpots when we were telling them that the bubble couldn’t last. We were crackpots when we told them that the crash will affect there “special” town / neighborhood. We were crackpots when we said it wasn’t just a sub-prime problem it would affect the higher priced neighborhoods and homes. And were still crackpots because we say things are not going to get any better any time soon. From what I read from one economic Crackpot, that for every year of prosperity there are two years of depression. So if housing began to expand in 2000 and peaked in 2005, it should take until 2015 until things bottom out and the next expansion begins.
- TechGromit, A crackpot and Proud of it.

Now some of us are crackpots for blaming the scam on the banksters, the pulling and corruption of underwriters, and the mbs scam instead of the borrowers who actually were victims of the scam.

Well, banksters are little smarter than borrowers. The last bubble proves that they got trapped by their excessive greed. Most homeowners that are trouble are just naive compared to banksters.

gameisrigged says

.. you are .. annoying.
..If you have a point, make it. If not, shut up.

Here is my point: if someone on a blog annoys you, why the heck do you invest your time to read his posts ? - why invest even more of your time to respond to them?
Patrick K. pays for and runs his website, but you're telling a different person to "shut up" on it?
Chill out, man. If it annoys you, don't read it, don't respond to it, don't argue with it. It is a blog which is for entertainment.

sybrib says

Here is my point: if someone on a blog annoys you, why the heck do you invest your time to read his posts ? - why invest even more of your time to respond to them?

That's what the "ignore" link is for!

That’s what the “ignore” link is for!

Cool. Rigged your game to do so.
No need read posts from those who violate your "as long as it's polite" request.

sybrib says

That’s what the “ignore” link is for!

Cool. Rigged your game to do so.

No need read posts from those who violate your “as long as it’s polite” request.

Thank god. I hope this means I don't have to listen to you whine anymore.

gameisrigged says

I find it quite ironic that you are here bitching about me supposedly being rude

Supposedly?gameisrigged says

I didn’t even address you and yet you jumped in and started trying to stir things up. You obviously have a huge chip on your shoulder.

Not really--just don't like bullies like you that are rude and attack instead of having a rational discussion.

tatupu70 says

gameisrigged says

I find it quite ironic that you are here bitching about me supposedly being rude

Supposedly?gameisrigged says

I didn’t even address you and yet you jumped in and started trying to stir things up. You obviously have a huge chip on your shoulder.

Not really–just don’t like bullies like you that are rude and attack instead of having a rational discussion.

For a guy who throws the word "asshole" around, which I have never used (other than to point out YOUR use of it), you sure can dish out the criticism to OTHERS for supposedly being rude. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I think it makes a lot more sense that you have a huge chip on your shoulder.

Pot, meet kettle.

And don't think I didn't notice your inability to work and play well with others in this thread, either: http://patrick.net/?p=28625