patrick.net

These 3 plots clearly show a delayed correlation between the asking and selling prices,
and the prediction that ongoing increase of asking prices strongly predicts higher selling prices few months down the road appears well-established.
The question remains, though, to what extent BOTH these trends show the price of SAME properties (aka Case-Shiller) rather than an effect of changing mix of offered or sold properties, such as the shift of deals to better neighborhoods (e.g., due to foreclosure and short sale activity going upmarket).

Asking prices here in the Inland Empire are dropping, on average 5% from 6 months ago. The list of homes for sale is growing and homes are staying on the market much longer than they were 6 months ago.

justme says

Here’s the deal: The housing market is and has been on Government+Fed life support ever since 2007. Any price increase is dependent on still further “heroics” from Government+Fed in concert.

Does government interference somehow create a strong correlation between asking prices and selling prices 3 months later? That wouldn't have been there? Because I don't see what the point is otherwise...

Uh, sorry, Mr. Lawrence Quackenyun, but your data is noisy. We're all proud of you that you discovered Redfin, but those are charts of the individual CITIES, not the regions. A much better source is Housing Tracker, which tracks asking prices for REGIONS. And if you had bothered to look there, you would have seen that asking prices are in fact going DOWN for all the areas you referenced.

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/los-angeles-california/

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/san-diego-california/

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/san-francisco-california/

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/san-jose-california/

So now that we've established that you're dead wrong, I don't suppose you'll admit that the CONVERSE is true, that falling asking prices precede falling sales prices? No, I didn't think so.

all i see are red lines (sold $/sqft) heading down or flat; and we're not even in the softest months for sales.

prices will continue to crater this christmas/january.

yay.

robertoaribas says

Sales are down, prices are down, who cares if listing prices on average are going up for a couple of months?

But they AREN'T even going up. See my previous post.

Danix ---

Changes are permitted while in the 203k process. This happens all the time, which is why there is a form called the Change Order form. This form allows for changes to the originally approved contractor proposal.

The shorter term, the info and or observation seems correct, BUT still in five years, much lower prices all of Ca. IMHO

Terrible time to buy in California. I wouldn't buy now. I'd wait for at least two more years before buying.

justme says

Personally I don’t think either one of these types of ASKING prices are good predictors of selling prices. We shall see.

No, probably not. Sales volume is a pretty good leading indicator. Asking prices? I'm skeptical.

"Semi-fast food Chipotle-style Asian"

I'm sorry, but exactly what is that?

Liz Pendens says

“Semi-fast food Chipotle-style Asian”
I’m sorry, but exactly what is that?

pei wei?

Running a regression on the delta is more reliable than eyeballing the chart to see what you are looking for. Also, if you are trying to correlate data that (per your hypothesis) has a phase delay, plotting the rate-of-change of that difference will show the pattern more clearly.

My recommendation is to partner with someone that has worked in the restaurant business for several years, both as the employee and management side of house. As for the type of food, it really doesn't matter, so long as the area supports it. So an area predominately Chinese or Central American for have a corresponding number of restaurants to support them. It's a brave sole that puts a Italian restaurant in a Central American neighborhood or via-versa. Franchisees are generally more successful, but it may have more to do with the owners being better financed than your typical no name restaurant than any name recognition, food quality or management style. In order to get McDonald's to even talk to you, you have to have 300k in the bank.

native94027 says

Running a regression on the delta is more reliable than eyeballing the chart to see what you are looking for. Also, if you are trying to correlate data that (per your hypothesis) has a phase delay, plotting the rate-of-change of that difference will show the pattern more clearly.

but that would show idioticwordsofgod doesn't know what he's talking about and we can't have that

Those McMansions in the desert were mostly sold to investors.

Sounds like you're seeking a cash poor partner you can exploit. What happened to your outrage over the exploitation of the working class and middle class? I'd like to think successful businesses provide strong incentives and a good working environment - the partner needs a vested interest in the business taking off instead of failing like most do. Try a culinary school - interview top grads, etc.

TechGromit had good advice except I would say that not all franchise opportunities take off. I have in-laws who invested in an urban, hip type coffee franchise in Park City, UT. It didn't die a horrid, epic death....but they closed it eventually. Competition in food service is tough. Still, I'd agree that franchise opportunities are less risky than going out on your own. Way more expensive to start-up, but less risky. Panera Bread wants $7 million in assets, $5 mil of which has to be liquid. Chipotle has got to be similar although I don't know.

If you are going for Chipotle style Asian...I'm assuming you mean Asian with quality organic and local ingredients where possible. Get a chef who can make some crazy good Asian and make it Asian fusion so you aren't just an organic version of Panda Express.

For goodness sake, forget English food. It's great that you may enjoy it but the vast majority of American palates don't seem to enjoy English food - the Brits are getting better but that is mostly b/c they have really embraced other culture's cuisine - like Indian. I had fish and chips once....only because I was in London and it is kind of a standard fare, served in a newspaper cone. It, like most other dishes I have had over there wasn't particularly good. You probably have noticed that there aren't exactly a ton of English or German restaurants...there might be a reason for that. Plus it's fried and not healthy. Subways are thriving these days b/c people are finally making an effort to eat healthier. Long John Silver's isn't around anywhere that I've seen in quite some years. If you go with your passion for English food....get a liquor license and make it an English Pub. Drunk people don't care as much about calories.

You already know you need a good location. I like the idea of something next to an large office building, be it government or corporate. If you are a no-name / no reputation place, office workers might try you just out of boredom from their regular rotation. If your food is quality, maybe you get a following. If you deliver to the office floors, better. Be prepared to lose money for a long time. Chipotle and Subway make money because they is always a line.

Good luck if you explore it further and go for it. It's too risky for me but if I had lots of extra cash I could afford to lose, I could see trying it.

SoCal Renter says

We are not looking at another round of falling prices.

Depends on the macro.

Taxes going up? Prices go down.
Gov't employment cut? Prices go down.
Double dip? Prices go down.
Debt crisis pushing interest rates up? Prices go down.
Civil unemployment gets worse? Prices go down.

We are in Japan Mode now -- QE, ZIRP and massive budget deficits, two things that are being demagogued all to hell now.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV

People knock the 70s for stagflation but there were 20M jobs added.
The 80s got a slow start but we saw another 20M thanks to Reagan's Keynesian spending.
The 90s saw personal computers and increasing international trade, another 20M jobs.
The previous decade however, we hit the wall thanks to trying to fake our way with a bubble economy.

Household debt, 1970-2010.

I don't follow the restaurant industry much but I do know casual upscale fastfood restaurants like Panera Bread and Chipotle are taking off. What is the secret to their success?

I think it is a great time to start a restaurant. The choices for location and lease terms are better than ever.

dittomichel says

Sounds like you’re seeking a cash poor partner you can exploit.

I think you view this too negatively. You seek someone with industry experience who you think have a chance to be successful (cooking, management, people, budget, customer service qualities) and you promote them to a position with more responsibility. Obviously giving them shares will give them financial motivatation as well. It's a prospective win-win. Business transactions happen because both party gets what they want.

Troy says

SoCal Renter says

We are not looking at another round of falling prices.

Depends on the macro.
Taxes going up? Prices go down.
Gov’t employment cut? Prices go down.
Double dip? Prices go down.
Debt crisis pushing interest rates up? Prices go down.
Civil unemployment gets worse? Prices go down.
We are in Japan Mode now — QE, ZIRP and massive budget deficits, two things that are being demagogued all to hell now.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV
People knock the 70s for stagflation but there were 20M jobs added.
The 80s got a slow start but we saw another 20M thanks to Reagan’s Keynesian spending.
The 90s saw personal computers and increasing international trade, another 20M jobs.
The previous decade however, we hit the wall thanks to trying to fake our way with a bubble economy.
Household debt, 1970-2010.

Err, no. All of the above also point to RISING home prices.

The previous decade we hit the wall because of unsustainable WAR SPENDING. Our technological economy was outsourced and replaced with banking speculators and war profiteers.

However, we are on the cusp of a new export economy. New industrial technologies are being innovated every day, from green tech to micro-industrial processing that require highly skilled labor that cannot be outsourced in the labor competition market.

The geographical areas being left behind in America are the areas that cannot provide good government value. Areas with relatively low taxes and excellent government service that have achieved a critical mass of immigrant friendly population will see phenomenal growth in home prices.

SoCal Renter says

Areas with relatively low taxes and excellent government service ... will see phenomenal growth in home prices.

And when you think of such areas,
CA and particularly Bay Area is the 1st thing that obviously comes to mind. :-)
But I agree with your general premise, so prices in Singapore may well go up.

I know. I wish I could come up with such clever terms as Califallyeah...

robertoaribas says

“don’t debate with an idiot, they drag the discussion down to their idiotic level and then beat you with their superior experience at being an idiot”

;-).

Along the same lines as the famous quote:

"Don't wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and the pig likes it"

robertoaribas says

So, Iwhack, on this third flip flop claims the median is messed up because it “is overly effected by the extremes” , when precisely the opposite is true.

Wow. It is customary when using quotation marks to put something inside them that has actually been said (or written in this case). You have done exactly the opposite. Not only didn't he say that, he hasn't said anything even close to that.

Your reading comprehension skills are decidedly lacking.

shrekgrinch says

You are confusing increases of interest rates with increases in price inflation. It is the later that increase hard asset prices (art, land both improved and not, etc.). Easy access to debt can also fool you into believing true inflation is happening when all that really is happening is a classic bubble. Cheaper rates = easier access to debt. Higher rates = the opposite.

No one is confusing anything. Wage inflation is the driver, of course. Historically high interest rates occur during periods of wage inflation. How do you not understand that?

shrekgrinch says

According to you, the home prices must have SOARED in real dollars.

Now you're talking about real dollars??? Let me know when you can buy a house in real dollars.

Real dollars are completely irrelevant. The whole point is that you'd rather be an owner during inflationary periods...

"investors" are gambling that they will get paid their asking price ... and when they are paid it will be on a regular basis ... and when the tennant leaves there will be very little work needed. Here in the valley, it is my opinion that investors are going to bleed cash for a very long time, since only those that can not buy a home -- will not buy a home -- for the same monthly cost. So, that whole "lowest common denominator" thing starts to take a toll on those sub-divies full of stucco-wrapped-POS that the coastal based specuvestor loves to try to rent in the valley for coastal per-sq-ft amounts. Section 8 is their only hope ... and I am praying that it finally gets exposed for the fraud it is and ended, or cut severly.

shrekgrinch says

tatupu70 says

No one is confusing anything. Wage inflation is the driver, of course. Historically high interest rates occur during periods of wage inflation. How do you not understand that?

Not when the high interest rates stop the music. And today’s economy, the wage spiral is bunk. Outsourcing sees to that.
How can YOU not understand that?

OK--so now we're not talking about history anymore. Now you want to completely change the subject and talk about how next time it will be different. That's a different discussion. Try to stay on topic next time, OK?

shrekgrinch says

tatupu70 says

Real dollars are completely irrelevant. The whole point is that you’d rather be an owner during inflationary periods…

What part of “You are confusing increases of interest rates with increases in price inflation” did you not READ?

Shrek--you have a very bad comprehension problem. I've never attributed cause and effect to interest rate movements and home prices. I've only talked about the empirical relationship that has existed historically. Do you udnerstand now?

Can someone please LOGICALLY explain to me how in the world we are going to have any sort of respectable WAGE inflation in the next 5 years? If we can't get some sort of wage inflation... Then homes can't inflate because the majority of Americans are still in debt up to their eyeballs... underwater in their homes, and living on stagnant wages cutting their spending in other areas to afford housing.. which is crushing any economic growth elsewhere.

Los Angeles Renter says

Can someone please LOGICALLY explain to me how in the world we are going to have any sort of respectable WAGE inflation in the next 5 years?

Cost-push. Wages can and do go up as the cost of living goes up.

Of course, the last time we were at this level of unemployment:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

the fed funds rate was:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS

17.5%, not 0. A slight difference.

Los Angeles Renter says

The fall of Rome was fundamentally due to economic deterioration resulting from excessive taxation, inflation, and over-regulation. Higher and higher taxes failed to raise additional revenues because wealthier taxpayers could evade such taxes while the middle class–and its taxpaying capacity–were exterminated.” cited : http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cjv14n2-7.html

Well, let's see. We have low tax rates, low--almost non-existent--inflation, and very little regulation. I'm not sure how this analogy applies at all.

Los Angeles Renter says

.. and lead to our downfall similar to the Roman Empire.

Herein is the rub.
In the event of wholesale national and govt. collapse, what would you own other than real estate? Everything else residing on the national currency evaporates, as I already pointed out in another thread based on the experiences of Russia and continental Europe nations, where such "Roman empire down falls" have happened with regularity a couple times per century and are firmly ingrained in the people's psyche.

After having worked in London for a month, I told my manager "If the French ever invade again, surrender immediately and hope they send you some chefs". I did the same thing dittomichel did, tried fish and chips (a few times, I figured I had found a bad place). Eventually I just ate Indian every day, it was by far the best I've ever had, and I've tried quite a bit from around the world.

If you're going for Asian, I would recommend heading up to Vancouver and trying out some of their fusion restaurants. The huge asian market makes it a great place to learn.

Another cheaper and less obvious option is to start up a lunch/dinner delivery style operation. Advertising/Ordering online with super simplicity (check out Chiptole's online ordering or Dominos). Have your chef/partner show that he can create meals people want, that he's reliable, that you can work together. Use google adwords and print media to get your name out to all the local businesses around you and see if you can get a decent following through that. Just have him create all the meals and have people deliver them to all the offices around there. See how things work out. You could probably do most of the cooking from a home, which means no leases, no money invested in restaurant equipment, etc.

tatupu70 says

Los Angeles Renter says

The fall of Rome was fundamentally due to economic deterioration resulting from excessive taxation, inflation, and over-regulation. Higher and higher taxes failed to raise additional revenues because wealthier taxpayers could evade such taxes while the middle class–and its taxpaying capacity–were exterminated.” cited : http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cjv14n2-7.html

Well, let’s see. We have low tax rates, low–almost non-existent–inflation, and very little regulation. I’m not sure how this analogy applies at all.

Well, in this great country, much different than your doomsday Roman Empire scenario, most people who make less than $50k per year in fact make a profit (thanks to tax credits) on their Federal Taxes, and it's the "rich" who are left to pay most of the federal taxes.

We not only still have Gladiators entertaining the common masses at the Coliseums (NBA Football players), but we also have $200 million dollar movie productions that the common masses can rent for $1 at their local video store.

"If you’re going for Asian, I would recommend heading up to Vancouver and trying out some of their fusion restaurants. The huge asian market makes it a great place to learn."

There are two kinds of chinese places, the places that the chinese people go to and the places that non-chinese frequent, they are two separate market.

If you do the Vancouver (technically Richmond, BC) style, you get all the rich entrepreneur who bought their citizenship in Canada, Most of those business owners invest their way into Cananda and paid for it by owning restaurant prior to doing it in Canada. The other known places where foreignors dominate are San Gabriel Valley, places scattered across the bay area and Metro New York. As an outsider, you have no chance in this market nor will your capital be valuable/needed. Koi Palace in Daly City has the top (or close) gross receipts in the entire restaurant industry (single location) in the bay area doing about 50K in daily sales.

Then there are the Panda Express like places. I think Panda Express is headquarted in San Ramon and they are pretty successful, they frequent the American malls and non-asian strip malls and no reasonable chinese people eat there out of choice, but it is successful nevertheless and it definitely can be done given good location, good lease terms and proper management.

As a potential customer, I would appreciate a Ramon Noodle place in the east bay near UC Berkeley where 10K asian students go to school. I think there is tremendous demand.

Fisk says

Los Angeles Renter says

.. and lead to our downfall similar to the Roman Empire.

Herein is the rub.

In the event of wholesale national and govt. collapse, what would you own other than real estate?

Guns? Then the real estate comes easy.

Fisk says

In the event of wholesale national and govt. collapse, what would you own other than real estate?

A plane ticket on All Nippon or Lufthansa. Back in the 30s the smart bears saw the writing on the wall and GTFO of Germany early.

While the propagandization of the rubes hasn't quite reached Völkischer Beobachter/Der Stürmer levels quite yet, we're about 30% of the way there.

Now, I'm only 30% in the doom camp. I see a 40% chance of following Japan's path of ballooning BS, and 30% of things getting better somehow, like they did in the 90s.

Troy says

Cost-push. Wages can and do go up as the cost of living goes up.

Except for the fact that they AREN'T.