patrick.net

Give me a break. Hauser's "law" is simply an empirical observation. There's nothing sacred about it. And it's been proven wrong recently. In 2009 tax revenues were far below what Hauwer proposed...

Troy says

What cost $1 in 1870 would cost $0.66 in 1900.

Granted, that was pre-Fed and while we were on the gold standard.

It also had a lot to do with the productivity gains from the Industrial Revolution, prices normalizing after hiking up during the Civil War period, and a bountiful source of cheap labor from European immigration to the U.S.

It's like the price of books after the printing press was invented, the price of books dropped dramatically since they no longer had to be hand-copied.

Like you mentioned, now we have the Fed which can just run those same dollar printing presses 24x7 to prevent deflation.

shrekgrinch says

And that range has remained, on average, consistent no matter whether we had 91% top tax rates, 70% or 25%. Sometimes collections are lower than the average, sometimes they are above.

Except that it hasn't. 2009 proved that. Hauser was wrong.

Wow--there's a huge difference between 14.4 and 20.9% of GDP.

2009 GDP = 14,000,000,000,000

at 20.9%, tax receipts = 2,926,000,000,000

at 14.4%, tax receipts = 2,016,000,000,000

that's a difference of 910,000,000,000

just short of a trillion dollars there. If you consider a trillion dollars to be at or about the same as zero, then I think you need some remedial math classes.

If Hauser's law really encompasses anything from 14.4% to 20.9%, then it is useless.

The notion that government owns your money and you don't is absurd. The rich pay a huge amount of money to support the spending that government does for the benefit of many who pay no income taxes, including extending unemployment benefits to pay people not to work for another year. Government needs to slow down spending and stop taxing people to death and encourage investment, business, jobs, growth, energy, innovation, savings, manufacturing and economic strength. Spending, debt, and taxes are all drags on the individual and business which hurts the USA.

Thank you Captain Capitalism

I suspect that Antioch Rent on San Jose Ave. will drop to 850 - 900 dollars in 2013 or so.

so I've been checking out the filings. No relief from stay has been filed.

There was a filing for "loss mitigation". Subsequent paperwork indicates the debtor is still trying to gather the documentation requested by the primary lien holder.

if you rent for $1400, it is a good deal. Monthly rent = 1% of purchase prices = sweet.
In my area, it is like 0.4% of purchase price...

shrek--

You really aren't this stupid. I just showed how ridiculous Hauser's law is--it says that revenue is constant. Oh yeah, with an error bar of only $1Trillion. Wow, that is earth shattering wisdom there.

I just came up with a new law of my own. Call it tatupu's law:

The Colorado Rockies win-loss record is completely independent of the players on the team. It's pointless for the owners and GM to try to find good players--it makes no difference. Since their inception, they have won at or about 48% of their games (41.4% to 56.8%).

They should just field a team of scrubs and pay them all the minimum, right? It makes no difference in the standings, after all.

tatupu70 says

They should just field a team of scrubs and pay them all the minimum, right? It makes no difference in the standings, after all.

Well done tatupu. The only problem is you're getting caught up arguing with a guy who won't hear you and who takes pride in the fact that most all he has to share is ignorant bluster. Pretty sure in fact that he's Ray under a different name. I enjoy this site a lot more when I have them both on ignore.

This guy is even worse. At least I can understand what Ray and Shrek are trying to say.

Tenouncetrout says

You Libs could give a Rats ass about the American people, and aspire to fix the right financial positions for your political utopia, of unspoiled profit, in the sectors and verticals your party can wield.

As upset and disappointed as I am with Obama's tax deal, it's mostly because I wanted the fight to inform more of the ignorant public who the republicans are really fighting for. What did republicans get out of the deal ? Financial benefits for the rich ( oh yes, that supposedly trickle down).

Tenouncetrout says

You Libs could give a Rats ass about the American people

Right wing commentator Charles Krauthammer (in the W. post)

Obama is no fool. While getting Republicans to boost his own reelection chances, he gets them to make a mockery of their newfound, second-chance, post-Bush, Tea-Party, this-time-we're-serious persona of debt-averse fiscal responsibility.

Under these circumstances it's clear to me which party cares less about the people. As a purely hypothetical (and I know you could argue the premise), if saving this country and our long term economy truly came down to whether or not we will have much more progressive taxation of high incomes, which would the republicans choose ?

That's right. The liberals are the new conservatives (at least if you can understand how radical big tax breaks for the rich really are).

TechGromit says

Hey your right. And cutting the defense budget isn’t going to solve our deficit crisis, so why bother? Cutting the federal employees raises isn’t going to solve it and raising the retirement age isn’t either, so let not even bother to do those things. Do you know where we end up? Right were we are now, do nothing, stall, until I get re-elected again. Then who cares for another 2 years. Then blame the other party, it’s all there fault I tried to fix things, but they are crazy, but if you re-elect me I’ll make everything better.

This situation isn’t going to be solved with one stroke of the pen, it’s going to take a lot of little sacrifices, and this government isn’t willing to sacrifice anything. I seriously fear for the future, Hyperinflation is the only way out of this mess. Congress shows a compete lack of willpower to change. Tea party or not, its the same animal, just different colors.

Well said, I agree completely. And every time we kick the can down the road, the sacrifices we will have later just get bigger. I believe that it is possible to stall things too long, with an end result as you say of hyper inflation, or even worse the end of democracy as we know it (knew it).

I don't know the answer, but I believe some kind of very real campaign finance reform would be a start.

shrekgrinch says

The average we get in income tax revenues is 19.5%, with the lows and highs I just mentioned and you acknowledge.

What part of the word average don't you understand? It means more was collected some years and less in others. Not that 19.5% was collected every single year. Your argument just doesn't make any sense other than to say the average collections is less than the current expenditures. So what's your point? This not any great leap in the fund of human knowledge.

You guys are just being ridiculous anyway. Taxes must go up, spending must go down, the excesses of the past must be paid for somehow. Any not too bright 7 year old can do the math on this one. Will it happen before a major economy destroying crisis. Not likely.

marcus says

Tenouncetrout says

You Libs could give a Rats ass about the American people

Right wing commentator Charles Krauthammer (in the W. post)

Obama is no fool. While getting Republicans to boost his own reelection chances, he gets them to make a mockery of their newfound, second-chance, post-Bush, Tea-Party, this-time-we’re-serious persona of debt-averse fiscal responsibility.

Under these circumstances it’s clear to me which party cares less about the people. As a purely hypothetical (and I know you could argue the premise), if saving this country and our long term economy truly came down to whether or not we will have much more progressive taxation of high incomes, which would the republicans choose ?

You quote me then follow it up with an unrelated, you're preaching to the choir about the Republicans to me Boss. Let's just Argue my precepcion about the Liberals and leave the "other" party America could do with out. I'm tired of this broken two party system, and you wont get nowhere with me counter arguing "What the damned ole Republicans done did."

Why did health care stocks go up if the mandate to buy insurance was knocked down? Something doesn't add up.

shrekgrinch says

No, it doesn’t. It says that there is an average. Hauser NEVER said it was constant.

Nice backpedal. So Hauser's brilliant law is that if you look at the history of revenue collection in the US you can calculate an average? Holy shit! Break out the Nobel prize. That is earth shattering wisdom there.

shrekgrinch says

Same when it comes to raising income taxes on the rich but expecting a corresponding increase in income tax revenues X to cover much higher spending Y when X

I don't think you grasp something. Spending and revenue are two different things. You can increase or decrease revenue irregardless of what you do with spending. Should the US spend less? Of course. I don't think anyone will argue with you about that one.

shrekgrinch says

Hauser’s Law proves that NO MATTER WHAT THE TAX RATES ARE, the feds can only get on average 19.5% of GDP from income tax revenues. But the Feds are spending way more than 19.5% of GDP consistently and that rate is to go up as the boomer’s retire.

It proves nothing of the sort. You really need some remedial math. It proves only that the average was 19.5% over the time period in question. You are making a HUGE leap that is not founded.

clambo says

Spending, debt, and taxes are all drags on the individual and business which hurts the USA.

Except, there are government services which must be paid for. Everything from nuclear weapons to FDA. The problem is the rich don't want to pay for it, they want YOU to pay for it. Or better yet to keep piling it up in deficit until the system collapses. By which time they'll move to some island with their loot to escape the conflagration. Very much like the Wall Streeters who KNEW the system they were running would blow up but they kept going because the goal was "cross your fingers and empty the safe as fast as you can". Keep it up suckers! I find it a laugh riot that people actually worship capitalist sociopaths in this country.

shrekgrinch says

What drives me nuts is all the idiots who say: “Raise their income taxes [which what they are advocating when they scream about the Bush tax cuts] and we’ll balance the budget then!” when we won’t come even close.

Then let's just say it'd be "a good start". The alternative is to say "let's not even bother" which is essentially what we've just done. Like the student who knows his assignment is late, is given a chance to turn it in late but with points off, then goes home and plays video games instead.

shrekgrinch says

I am not the one making any leaps by insisting that we can’t expect enough in income tax revenues despite whatever tax rates we impose since THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN INCOME TAX HISTORY and since the politicians KNOW THIS and thus want to tap additional tax sources like carbon and value added taxes.

I can't tell what you are claiming. If you are claiming that we can't raise taxes enough to get to 27% of GDP, then I might agree with you. If you are claiming that no matter what the tax rates are, the revenue is the same, then you are completely insane. Did you understand that the difference between 14.4% of GDP and 20.9% of GDP is $1T? Did you notice that US tax revenue DECREASED after the Bush tax cuts went into effect???

Not to mention that the wealth disparity is extremely high right now. If you don't think that has profound effects on the US tax revenues, then you need to stop posting. There is a strong interaction between wealth disparity and tax rates on tax revenues...

shrekgrinch says

What drives me nuts is all the idiots who say: “Raise their income taxes [which what they are advocating when they scream about the Bush tax cuts] and we’ll balance the...

Ah yes, those idiots who say "Lets increase the income, it'll increase the income." Those idiots.

Anyway, as far as I can see no one is saying that raising the tax rates to previously acceptable levels would full on BALANCE the budge, only that it'll help. There are your half-truths and contextual slips coming through again.

The core denial of Republicans is that they're actually coherent and responsible when it comes to economic policy. The other one, a close second, is that they actually care about balancing the budget. What they do seem to care about is 'getting more' for themselves, and 'starving the beast'. Near as I can tell those are the two primary driving forces in Republican policy today, and the current third being to do whatever it takes to deny Obama a second term even if it leads to harming the general population through shitty economic policy or a gridlocked government, which also leads back to 'starving the beast'...

But hasn't this all been said a few dozen times before on this list?...

You say "go after rich folk's assets" as if this were the lowest thing to do, a deceitful and tricky horrible thing. As if asking people who've benefited most from the advantages of their society to give back a little were a bad thing... and anyway, what does constitute class warfare to you? Clearly the systematic looting of poorer peoples' assets through tax give aways to corporations and the like does not constitute class warfare, but asking wealthy people to resume payments at a level that was previously acceptable before Bush catered to 'his base' does. Its pretty clear to me that ‘actually worship[ping] capitalist sociopaths in this country’ is pretty much your position.

blah blah blah...

thunderlips11 says

Probably they’ll Kennedy will keep the individual mandate, but strip out the pre-existing coverage stuff.

ftfy. Thing is, the mandate is basically a conservative idea. The friggin' Heritage Foundation itself had it in its plans, as did the 1993 Republican plan.

And of course RomneyCare.

This does not mean that it is not unconstitutional. But I think Congress constructed things correctly to pass that test.

1) Interstate commerce
2) Rational basis
3) Necessary & Proper
4) 16th Amendment power to tax incomes

As for insurance money, I do like the 80-85% requirement for MLRs. Almost as good as socialism -- similar to the originally Progressive Era idea of licensed utilities with a fixed profit margin.

Without a mandate & insurance companies forced to cover the deadbeats who wait to apply until they get a serious illness, that only means this is an unworkable plan.

It's both, or none.

or it could be done like every other industrialized country that has a modern healthcare system; factor it into the base taxes.

deadbeats who wait to apply until they get a serious illness

dunno - how does that theory play out with other forms of insurance, like car insurance? do you see the same thing?

...then we will have no federal system of government any more

Hyperbole much?...

But this topic's been covered in other posts...
kentm says

I was wondering...

But I did notice one thing about the ruling that I'd like to post here, one part I hope you'll find as amusing as I did, and because I'm petty I went back and dug up an earlier post:

shrekgrinch says

kentm says

My initial question is to the third part: Do you consider a traffic ticket a tax?” If you say yes then you can call anything a tax. The reason I suppose this is “levied through their income taxes” is that its a surefire way of getting the cash but you can’t call it a tax, its a fine

Uhhh….what? What planet are you presently on?

So. Here's a link to the ruling:
http://www.vaag.com/PRESS_RELEASES/Cuccinelli/Health%20Care%20Memorandum%20Opinion.pdf

and in there you'll find one little part that says:

* That the mandate could not be reframed as a "tax," as it was not designed to raise revenue but rather to penalize behavior.

So in response that earlier question I guess I have to say 'the real one'.

cheers

kentm says

or it could be done like every other industrialized country that has a modern healthcare system; factor it into the base taxes.

deadbeats who wait to apply until they get a serious illness

dunno - how does that theory play out with other forms of insurance, like car insurance? do you see the same thing?

Car insurance is mandatory in all states so I don't see how it can compare.

I don't see any sticky wicket. The court had no trouble in the recent past ruling that a citizen who was doing nothing wrong and was under no suspicion of any kind has to produce his papers for the police and that the state has the right to take your land for another private individual to use. As someone who grew up in a very different America 60 years ago both of these rulings stunned me. I would have never dreamed it to be possible. The idea of police roadblocks with police asking for your papers without being part of a serious criminal manhunt was unthinkable back then. So why can't the SC rule that the government can force you to buy health care.

Yet another reason to hold multiple citizenships.

kentm says

or it could be done like every other industrialized country that has a modern healthcare system; factor it into the base taxes.

THAT'S OBAMO-MARXI-SOCIALISM!

shrekgrinch says

Go back and read. Try getting an education first…especially in the realm of ‘reading comprehension’.

bob2356 says

Not that 19.5% was collected every single year.

I said that, moron.

Ok so I'm a moron. Considering your blind devotion to the silliness of Hauser I'll consider that a compliment of the highest order.

So you don't see any problems with Hauser's "theory". I'll give you a hint. The words "top tax rate" for a start. You don't see any problems with using that single tax data point to compare to the whole of government revenue. Gee I wonder what happened to social program collections and corporate income tax part of government revenue. Talk about comparing apples to nuclear bombs.

Oh, by the way what happened Hausers extensive analysis into the changes to the rest of the tax structure? Oops. Maybe you have no clue (Hauser correctly decided to ignore it since the reality conflicts very heavily with his theory) about this but the top tax rate has been lowered while increasing the lower tax brackets. That's the beauty of the whole Reagan tax reform. The top people got dramatically less taxes, everyone else got screwed.

The only thing Hauser has provided is a meaningless sound bite perfect cover to the devotee's of the laffler curve. I read a great quote about laffler and Hauser several years ago and am delighted to be able to find it again:

Hauser's Law joins the Laffer Curve* in the dustbin of right-wing voodoo economic theory. The only people who promote either are the people who, one way or another, benefit by doing so. Like those paragons of objective, scientific analysis at the WSJ editorial page.

*My favorite quote about the Laffer Curve came from my econ professor, who said "The Laffer Curve is relevant to policy in exactly the same way that the melting point of steel is relevant to washing the dishes."

Are you Kidding? Why would anyone buy in the next 10 -15 years? at least not in Ca. Oil will shortly be 200 plus a barrel and fuel costs will be yet another giant cost to living, and working. I also seem to sense that the Aging Baby boomers are going to eat up resources for health care, and while many homes will be needed for assisted living, and all. I don't see how with China, and India coming in to their own, and all you need to do is LISTEN to the Large Auto-manufactures they all expect to sell more and more until the majority of cars sold will be in China. (thusly causing oil at 200-300 a BBL.) That is but some of the scenario I see heading this way, I am not looking forward to it. I can say that. I am 51 and know I will never buy again.

kentm says

dunno - how does that theory play out with other forms of insurance, like car insurance? do you see the same thing?

No, car insurance companies aren't forced to issue policies to people who just had an accident yesterday, while uninsured, and want to have the insurance pick up the tab after the fact.

3/10

I am not the only one who understands the basic math involved that many of you can’t quite seem to grasp

This is not a good faith argument, and is why I have you on ignore.

Laffer Curve exists, but not at 30-40% marginal taxation.

Why are you comparing a 3 bedroom rent with a 4 bed 2.5 ? Just curious

tatupu70 says

It proves nothing of the sort. You really need some remedial math. It proves only that the average was 19.5% over the time period in question. You are making a HUGE leap that is not founded.

Let's see,... if the government taxed at 0%, they would have revenue of zero.

If the government taxed at 100%, they would also get close to zero.

But apparently, at any level of taxation that allows the economy to function, revenues will be close to 19.5%of GDP. Assuming that this absurd idea is true, we would still need optimize how progressive the tax code is. Even most of the wealthy (if they aren't idiots) know that taking the tax on income above 250K (that is, just the part of the income that is over 250K) from 35 to 39 does no harm to the economy, but does boost revenues by an extremely predictable amount.

This is not even disputed in most intelligent conservative circles. The deal was a gift to the rich, and everyone knows it. Sure if they were going from 50% to 70% you might make and argument about it. But 35 to 39 ? Give me a fucking break.

bob2356 says

*My favorite quote about the Laffer Curve came from my econ professor, who said “The Laffer Curve is relevant to policy in exactly the same way that the melting point of steel is relevant to washing the dishes.”

Good one.

shrekgrinch says

marcus says

I enjoy this site a lot more when I have them both on ignore.

Then why don’t you? Hell, if you did you wouldn’t even see this forum posting at all because I submitted it. You liberals are so full of shit.

If one uses the ignore feature, there is also a "show all posts feature" I can use if say, maybe I am feeling, "I wonder what the dim bulb is spouting today ?"

shrekgrinch says

Let me summarize all that for you since you can’t quite grasp all of this:

Since the government can NEVER collect enough in income tax revenues from the rich (or all of us in total) to balance the budget at etc, etc, ....

I have tried to explain to you several times, and this is really just for others because I know either you can't or won't consider it.

Higher taxes on the rich, are not just about increasing govt revenues (which they will). It's about paying our bills, which is obviously the only way that the rich members congress and their benefactors will be forced to make the tough choices on spending.

Do you really want lower spending ?

It would work. But maybe the rich and corporations don't like the idea because it might ultimately also cause compromises on spending priorities ( eg social services versus war spending for one).

Not enough facts given to determine the choice.

price, local rent and size are not the only 3 variables. There are other items like, regulation, structural integrity, location, number of floors, floor plan, etc...

shrekgrinch says

ideological programming about taxes

Bingo.

People probably bring up Laffer because if it were true that tax revenues are always 19.5% of GDP, and if the Laffer curve is also real (that is the simple concept that there is a tax level that will maximize tax revenues), then there must therefore be a level of taxation that will allow for a maximal GDP.

(By the way I am for now only supposing your inference about Hausers law is correct - although almost by definition it is nothing more than a weak rationalization)

The argument you make, is based on the faulty logic that increased taxes MUST cause lower GDP, because of less investment. But if that were true, then marginal taxes on high income could never be too low.

I do agree with Troy, that if calling me uneducated is your best argument, then this more than any argument I can make refutes your point. And the reason I think you are Ray, is that people have brought up several legitimate critiques in this thread that you ignore or respond to with name calling.

. . . on the ol' troll-o-meter