patrick.net

BTW, when is the deadline for us to make our guesses?

Most definitely before Mid-2006.

BTW, when is the deadline for us to make our guesses?

Oops... guess I hadn't really thought that part out yet. What do you guys think --end of this week/month?

(Sorry, no sponsor = no money for prizes )

We can all chip-in for prizes, right? ;)

Ok, guys, I picked a deadline (refresh, see above):

"Turn in your predictions by 12:00 am, Saturday the 13th –after that it won’t count."

I've told you all before:

50% housing drop in all bay area counties by the end of this month.

Sacramento will drop by 100%, and then an additional 20% next year.

Cheers,
prat

Prat, if my handicap drops 50% by the end of the month I may actualy break par! Too bad, handicaps never crash in the Bay Area.

To be fair statistics is a powerful tool. However, it is more powerful as a means of propaganda.

120% drop in Sacramento!

Possible. When they cannot given houses away, they will have to pay for closing costs, moving costs, plasma TVs, lanscaping, new kitchen... add up to about 20%.

Sexy Girls & Sexy Guys
Web Conferencing & Mingling Looking For Date, Romance & Fun!

Did you guys see this ad at the bottom of the page? Well, you guys did say you wanted a party, but this is ridiculous.

And how many counties are eligible? Country wide?

CA-only (re-read the rules). I'd love to allow more as we have a very ecclectic and international mix of people here, but I --like you-- have no clue about counties outside California. Plus, this blog owes its existence to "Bay Area Crash Continues".

Peter P

Oh that is too much to hope for. A house at a major discount (or at a rational price-- depends on who you talk to) and a free plasma TV.

Did you guys see this ad at the bottom of the page? Well, you guys did say you wanted a party, but this is ridiculous.

Let's thank Google for such fantastic ads.

I do get a chuckle out of the ads every night. Usually they're mortgage ads and such. But tonight's was too funny not to comment on.

Sexy Girls & Sexy Guys
Web Conferencing & Mingling Looking For Date, Romance & Fun!

Did you guys see this ad at the bottom of the page? Well, you guys did say you wanted a party, but this is ridiculous.

Nope --I don't see any ads. You sure it's at the bottom of this page and not some adware on your system? (Have you been visiting some "naughty" sites recently ;-) )

(Have you been visiting some “naughty” sites recently )

Moi? I don't even know what you're talking about....

Anyway...........
I've never been good at guessing sports scores or anything like that. There needs to be some sort of grid where I can just point at a square and say "I'll take that one" pay my $5 bucks and be done with it.

@SactoQt & Peter P,

Seriously --are you two seeing ads at the bottom of this page?

Seriously –are you two seeing ads at the bottom of this page?

Yes, and I do not go to naughty sites. :(

I guess I don't see the ads because I'm always logged in.

HARM

I don't know if I should be worried about you or not.

Jack

I'm hoping that if enough people hear the 120% prediction it will come true. Don't spoil my fun. ;)

I tell ya, I think this area is pretty volitile right now, but people just don't realize it yet. I gotta tell you guys in all seriousness, my husband is as busy now as he's been since the tech crash. I don't know how many clients are moving assets from RE, but people are definitely putting money back in stocks, at least from the limited perspective I have. He tells me that business comes in waves and that all brokers have dry spells, but even he admits he can't believe how busy he's been. It's all good from my perspective.

The fun is really going to begin when we're able to either debunk some predictions or see some come true. I think we all have ways we want to see the market go, but for me I kinda enjoy seeing this develop. I don't want to see massive market collapses or see anyone really get hurt financially. But I do hope that seeing this unfold will give me insight into future bubbles.

Jack

When you say 'positive about the economy', do you think that translates into optimism in the stock market? Or do you think the economy issue is really still tied into the housing market?

Hey --I just noticed someone (Patrick ?) has gone through all the old threads and deleted every post MarinaPrime ever made. I don't even have rights to ALL the threads (just the ones I started), so don't blame (or thank) me.

Hey –I just noticed someone (Patrick ?) has gone through all the old threads and deleted every post MarinaPrime ever made. I don’t even have rights to ALL the threads (just the ones I started), so don’t blame (or thank) me.

Do you think the pacific heights troll is MP in disguise?

Can't say I'm sorry to see MP purged. I hope primetroll keeps up the poetry though.

HARM, it was an attempt to block MP's comments. I guess the deletion of old comments is a side effect.

Do you think the pacific heights troll is MP in disguise?

Possibly. In that case he is using a new network connection.

HARM, I believe you were CC'ed.

Since we have now voted to keep MP's comment. I will respect that decision.

HARM, it was an attempt to block MP’s comments. I guess the deletion of old comments is a side effect.

Ouch. Any possibility of getting the old comments back? I'm not sorry to see Sauce blocked going forward, but deleting the old posts removes much of the context from the old threads (especially primetroll & TWIT's poetry).

HARM, a copy of the comments should be in your e-mail inbox.

HARM, a copy of the comments should be in your e-mail inbox.

No wonder I didn't see it. I only check that account about once a week.

HARM, Sauce cannot be stopped. He is determined to come back. He switched IP at least twice.

HARM, Sauce cannot be stopped. He is determined to come back. He switched IP at least twice.

Maybe we should start calling him the SAUCINATOR.

HARM, Sauce cannot be stopped. He is determined to come back. He switched IP at least twice.

Troll with a mission. Need I repeat that anyone with a real (paying) job doesn't have time for this??? People here are so nice that they are actually willing to believe his cover story. I would hope he'd stay away, but I'm not even that optimistic.

I see the headline...

SAUCINATOR replaces GOVERNATOR in Sacramento, real estate prices drop 120%

Inquiring mind

That is my biggest fear. There have been so many jobs created (especially in Ca) in the housing and related industries that I'm afraid a housing bust could really hurt the state. And those (like Greenspan) that say there are only little bubbles in separate markets seem to forget that CA has one of the biggest economies in the world. You can't tell me that a major bust here with subsequent job losses will not have an effect on the rest of the country.

You people need to find something to keep yourselves occupied.
This bubble business was interesting, but not THAT interesting. They
people here seem to be vultures waiting for a corpse to show up.
What if nobody dies? You’ll all feel terrible.

I won't feel bad at all. If were all wasting our time, why did you bother to post? I'm here to 'talk' to people who are interesting about a topic I'm interested in. I have no greater stake in it than that.

people here seem to be vultures waiting for a corpse to show up.
What if nobody dies?

Nobody dies? Sounds like a new paradigm to me. ;)

@Ken Baachest,

Well, actually I do have *other* interests, but while I was house-hunting with my wife about 2 years ago, we quickly became "introduced" to the bubble (or at least one of its nasty side-effects: grossly inflated prices beyond reach of mere mortals). After that, learning about its economic/psychological causes became a hobby.

If there were no bubble, I suppose right now I'd be working on my house (which I would have been able to afford w/out an NAAVLP) or maybe trading tips on a home-improvement site. Who knows...?

As far as there being no bubble correction --read the previous threads. I'm not about to re-hash about 2 months of statistics and arguments. To my mind, the bubble's existence has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt. The only question is when and how bad the correction will be.