patrick.net

SCAL
(-)10-19% San Bernardino
(-)10-19% Riverside
(-)20-29% San Diego
(-)10-19% OC
(-)0-9% LA
(-)0-9% Ventura

NCAL
(-)0-9% San Francisco
(-)10-19% Santa Clara
(-)10-19% Sacramento
(-)0-9% San Mateo
(-)0-9% Alameda

A drawdown of 50+% is very likely in the Silly Valley... ok, my predictions...

(-)20-29% San Francisco
(-)30-39% Marin, Sonoma, Napa
(-)40-49% Santa Clara (SFH), Alameda (SFH), San Mateo
(-)50-69% Sacramento, Yolo, Solano, Santa Clara (Condo), Alameda (Condo)

@Waiting in Vegas,

I guess we're the only ones without Friday night plans/dates (*sniff*).

Wow, HARM, you are quite optimistic.

Peter, we're talking about drops by mid-2006 not TOTAL!

Jeeze HARM, are you really going to keep tabs on EVERY single fragmented guess by who knows who about percentages and counties and people changing thier mind and re -guessing

Heck NO!!
Everyone tracks/tallies their own predictions. Once you've posted it, that's that --there's no going back and getting "do-overs".

Jack, I do think that SF and Marin county will hold up much better than other counties.

Peter, we’re talking about drops by mid-2006 not TOTAL!

Oops... I should have read more carefully... I was predicting total drawdown. For Mid-2006...

(-)0-9% San Francisco
(-)0-9% Marin, Sonoma, Napa
(-)10-19% Santa Clara, Alameda, San Mateo
(-)20-29% Sacramento, Yolo, Solano

there’s no going back and getting “do-overs”.

Possible exception: Peter.
I think he skimmed over the rules and guessed the total drops over the entire correction/crash, however long that will take.

BTW, drawdown = peak - trough

Jack, I put both counties in the 0-9% category by the 2006 deadline. San Francisco may lead Marin in the downturn. I am not too sure.

However, my impression is that SF is more built-out than Marin. I could be wrong though.

Do you want to bet a modest meal?

BTW, do you need links to market reports out here?

Yes, please!

So, we are also going to discuss why some counties are more f***ed than the others, right? Debate of intangibles! Fun!

Do you want tiny urls or just the urls without https and wwws?

Whichever you prefer - I like tiny urls because they take up much less room.

BTW, when is the deadline for us to make our guesses?

Most definitely before Mid-2006.

BTW, when is the deadline for us to make our guesses?

Oops... guess I hadn't really thought that part out yet. What do you guys think --end of this week/month?

(Sorry, no sponsor = no money for prizes )

We can all chip-in for prizes, right? ;)

Ok, guys, I picked a deadline (refresh, see above):

"Turn in your predictions by 12:00 am, Saturday the 13th –after that it won’t count."

I've told you all before:

50% housing drop in all bay area counties by the end of this month.

Sacramento will drop by 100%, and then an additional 20% next year.

Cheers,
prat

Prat, if my handicap drops 50% by the end of the month I may actualy break par! Too bad, handicaps never crash in the Bay Area.

To be fair statistics is a powerful tool. However, it is more powerful as a means of propaganda.

120% drop in Sacramento!

Possible. When they cannot given houses away, they will have to pay for closing costs, moving costs, plasma TVs, lanscaping, new kitchen... add up to about 20%.

Sexy Girls & Sexy Guys
Web Conferencing & Mingling Looking For Date, Romance & Fun!

Did you guys see this ad at the bottom of the page? Well, you guys did say you wanted a party, but this is ridiculous.

And how many counties are eligible? Country wide?

CA-only (re-read the rules). I'd love to allow more as we have a very ecclectic and international mix of people here, but I --like you-- have no clue about counties outside California. Plus, this blog owes its existence to "Bay Area Crash Continues".

Peter P

Oh that is too much to hope for. A house at a major discount (or at a rational price-- depends on who you talk to) and a free plasma TV.

Did you guys see this ad at the bottom of the page? Well, you guys did say you wanted a party, but this is ridiculous.

Let's thank Google for such fantastic ads.

I do get a chuckle out of the ads every night. Usually they're mortgage ads and such. But tonight's was too funny not to comment on.

Sexy Girls & Sexy Guys
Web Conferencing & Mingling Looking For Date, Romance & Fun!

Did you guys see this ad at the bottom of the page? Well, you guys did say you wanted a party, but this is ridiculous.

Nope --I don't see any ads. You sure it's at the bottom of this page and not some adware on your system? (Have you been visiting some "naughty" sites recently ;-) )

(Have you been visiting some “naughty” sites recently )

Moi? I don't even know what you're talking about....

Anyway...........
I've never been good at guessing sports scores or anything like that. There needs to be some sort of grid where I can just point at a square and say "I'll take that one" pay my $5 bucks and be done with it.

@SactoQt & Peter P,

Seriously --are you two seeing ads at the bottom of this page?

Seriously –are you two seeing ads at the bottom of this page?

Yes, and I do not go to naughty sites. :(

I guess I don't see the ads because I'm always logged in.

HARM

I don't know if I should be worried about you or not.

Jack

I'm hoping that if enough people hear the 120% prediction it will come true. Don't spoil my fun. ;)

I tell ya, I think this area is pretty volitile right now, but people just don't realize it yet. I gotta tell you guys in all seriousness, my husband is as busy now as he's been since the tech crash. I don't know how many clients are moving assets from RE, but people are definitely putting money back in stocks, at least from the limited perspective I have. He tells me that business comes in waves and that all brokers have dry spells, but even he admits he can't believe how busy he's been. It's all good from my perspective.

The fun is really going to begin when we're able to either debunk some predictions or see some come true. I think we all have ways we want to see the market go, but for me I kinda enjoy seeing this develop. I don't want to see massive market collapses or see anyone really get hurt financially. But I do hope that seeing this unfold will give me insight into future bubbles.

Jack

When you say 'positive about the economy', do you think that translates into optimism in the stock market? Or do you think the economy issue is really still tied into the housing market?

Hey --I just noticed someone (Patrick ?) has gone through all the old threads and deleted every post MarinaPrime ever made. I don't even have rights to ALL the threads (just the ones I started), so don't blame (or thank) me.

Hey –I just noticed someone (Patrick ?) has gone through all the old threads and deleted every post MarinaPrime ever made. I don’t even have rights to ALL the threads (just the ones I started), so don’t blame (or thank) me.

Do you think the pacific heights troll is MP in disguise?

Can't say I'm sorry to see MP purged. I hope primetroll keeps up the poetry though.