patrick.net

coop says

Should I stay out of real-estate (avoiding what Patrick thinks will be a continuing downfall in real estate prices) and play the market? I’m not interested in short-term deals…I want to invest LONG-term.
“Our favourite holding period is forever.” -W. Buffet

You've answered your own question. Put the proceeds in BRK, which is a somewhat undervalued cash-spewing behemoth, and get Warren's management for close to free ($100K/year). For heaven's sake don't "play the market", only your broker wins when you do that.

tatupu70 says

ChrisLosAngeles says

Savings is essentially investing into a bank. If banks make lots of money with it, shouldn’t they return some of it?

They do–the investors are the shareholders not the depositors. And it’s called a dividend

Given that the depositors == taxpayers end up being the ones that pay for the banks losses, either through taxpayer-funded bailouts, FDIC or Fed-engineered inflation, I think the depositors should be treated as real investors, yeah.

justme says

tatupu70 says

ChrisLosAngeles says
Savings is essentially investing into a bank. If banks make lots of money with it, shouldn’t they return some of it?
They do–the investors are the shareholders not the depositors. And it’s called a dividend

Given that the depositors == taxpayers end up being the ones that pay for the banks losses, either through taxpayer-funded bailouts, FDIC or Fed-engineered inflation, I think the depositors should be treated as real investors, yeah.

Well, the FDIC is self funded. And taxpayers did become investors in the banks as a result of the bailouts. They/we own/owned a significant portion of many large banks and AIG and as they started making money, the government made money.

tatupu70 says

Well, the FDIC is self funded. And taxpayers did become investors in the banks as a result of the bailouts. They/we own/owned a significant portion of many large banks and AIG and as they started making money, the government made money.

Wrong.

FDIC is bankrupt, just like many banks are, they could not possibly liquidate without losses at current market value.

The taxpayer ownership of banks was an enormous sweetheart deal for the banks, the taxpayer got nothing near the risk premium that they should have gotten when they bought the preferred stock and warrants. The deal was hugely crooked, thanks to Bush, Paulson and Geithner.

The government may break even on behalf of the taxpayer. MAYBE. What kind of return is that compared to the overpaid banksters that lost all the money in the first place?

Come on tatapu70, you know better than this. I know your motivation. You want bank deposits to be such as bad investment that you can lure all the suckers into buying into another real-estate bubble. Just admit it.

justme says

FDIC is bankrupt, just like many banks are, they could not possibly liquidate without losses at current market value

That's why they've upped the fees on banks.justme says

The taxpayer ownership of banks was an enormous sweetheart deal for the banks, the taxpayer got nothing near the risk premium that they should have gotten when they bought the preferred stock and warrants. The deal was hugely crooked, thanks to Bush, Paulson and Geithner.

I don't necessarily disagree with that statement--for the most part. But I don't think it disputes my point. Government did receive ownership in the bailout. They probably could have negotiated a tougher deal with the banks, I agree.

justme says

Come on tatapu70, you know better than this. I know your motivation. You want bank deposits to be such as bad investment that you can lure all the suckers into buying into another real-estate bubble. Just admit it.

I hope you are just kidding.

tatupu70 says

I hope you are just kidding.

I'm not kidding. Where do you WANT house prices to be? Please tell us.

justme says

tatupu70 says

I hope you are just kidding.

I’m not kidding. Where do you WANT house prices to be? Please tell us.

I'd like house prices to follow inflation. It'd be better for me personally if there was a bubble on the stock market. Much easier to sell stocks than to sell your house. And what do you do then--you have to live somewhere...

tatupu70 says

I’d like house prices to follow inflation

That's ambiguous. You want house prices to follow inflation, starting from what level? Back to the peak of the bubble, them follow inflation, or back to historical levels (reverseal to the mean), then follow inflation, or what?

justme says

That’s ambiguous. You want house prices to follow inflation, starting from what level? Back to the peak of the bubble, them follow inflation, or back to historical levels (reverseal to the mean), then foloow inflation, or what?

Honestly-who cares what I want. I am well aware that my posts on pat.net have exactly zero influence on the price of homes in the US. I know you see conspiracies around every corner, but come on. You really think people post things on here in hopes that it will cause people to rush and buy a house?

In any event--I didn't buy a house as an investment. It's a place to live. I don't expect to make lots of money when I sell it. If it keeps up with inflation, then I'll be happy.

tatupu70 says

Honestly-who cares what I want.

Oh, so now you suddenly cannot be bothered answering the question of where you want house prices to be.

tatupu70 says

I am well aware that my posts on pat.net have exactly zero influence on the price of homes in the US.

I think you do not speak th truth. You spend time posting on patrick.net because you want house prices to go up again. way more than inflation. Pretty much everything you post is designed to make people believe that house prices are on a permanent upswing, hence making it a necessity to BUY NOW.

tatupu70 says

You really think people post things on here in hopes that it will cause people to rush and buy a house?

YES. There are many frequent posters here whose main motivation is to instigate people to buy (still) overpriced houses.

MY main motivation is to educate people that it would be better for everyone in the long run if house prices reverted to the mean, and then increased no more than inflation. And to show that without market manipulation and rampant propaganda, greed and falsehoods, this is what will happen.

I think the bubble should have been avoided, and I certainly do not want to see another housing bubble forming.

I hate speculation in the roofs over people's head.

That's my motivation. You are hiding your motivation, because your motivation is to make money at other people's expense.

tatupu70 says

ChrisLosAngeles says

Savings is essentially investing into a bank. If banks make lots of money with it, shouldn’t they return some of it?

They do–the investors are the shareholders not the depositors. And it’s called a dividend

Yes, but that is only because most people will invest into the bank for free. Who doesn't want a free savings account. But if people didn't keep their money in the banks, banks would pay a lot more to entice people into the savings accounts.

I do know how it works. Banks just like any other business will not pay more than they have to.

Justme--

OK--those are some serious accusations there. I challenge you to find ANY posts from me that could be construed as hype or where I've ever even said that housing is going to rise or that now is the time to buy. Usually I just post links to AP articles with the latest economic statistics showing that the permabears are wrong.

What I HAVE done is tried to balance out the extreme negative bias of most posters on here with a dose of reality.

I, too, think the bubble should have been avoided and don't want to see another one forming. Although with much tighter lending standards, I think it would be much, much harder for a bubble to inflate nowadays.

Be careful attributing motivation to other people--that's where most conspiracy theorists go off the deep end.

ChrisLosAngeles says

I do know how it works. Banks just like any other business will not pay more than they have to.

Exactly right--it's just supply and demand. If no one gives them money, then they'll raise the savings rates.

Why is it that when someone posts a positive comment about housing, they are doing it with the malicious goal of encouraging people to buy to prop up housing prices, but when people post something about declining prices, they are doing it with pure, good intentions? Couldn't the same thing be said for people who have negative views, that they do it with the motivation to discourage people from buying houses with the hopes that this will cause prices to drop? People who haven't purchased yet have just as much motivation, if not more, to see housing prices move the way they want, as people who have purchased. If prices drop from here, as long as nothing catastrophic happens, I should still be able to pay my mortgage. If prices go up from here, people who couldn't afford or didn't want to pay, still won't be able to afford/pay.

Ah, Captain Fantastic. Nice to see you chime in again with absolutely no clue.

If I'm remembering correctly, the article I posted a link to (not cited) was from Yahoo and just reported on the # of signed contracts. Not median housing prices. I can see how you might get confused because you tend to overlook small details like that.... And Yen wasn't mentioned in my post, nor in the article itself, so not sure where you came up with that one....

Mr.Fantastic says

I kid you not, Tatupu once cited an article quoting Lawrence Yun for why median housing prices were going up. You can’t make this stuff up.

Actually you did...

Mr.Fantastic says

You want to stop playing this game now?

Yes. You're always wrong and it's so easy to show it, it's not even any fun.

Mr.Fantastic says

you used that as justification for why prices would be going up.

No I didn't. I don't recall ever saying prices were going up.

Mr.Fantastic says

The article you cited used direct quotes from Walter Molony who is a spokesperson for NAR’s chief fairy tale teller, Lawrence Yun.

Oh, so now it's Walter Molony? Not Yun? And like I already said in the original thread (I notice you didn't copy this)--I only care about the statistic. I can draw my own conclusions. What Roubini or Molony or Schiff thinks doesn't mean a whole lot to me.

Please stop posting nonsense. Like I said, nobody wants to read it. It adds nothing to the discussion here, but I feel compelled to answer it...

Mr.Fantastic says

Walter Molony is a spokesperson for Lawrence Yun! You used that article as the crux of your argument for why home prices were going to go up.

Like I said--please find ANY post where I've EVER said prices were going up. It should be easy, right?

So, you couldn't find any posts where I said housing was going to go up then?

Seriously--please give it up. Now you're cutting and pasting small fragments of posts to distort their meaning. My lord. This is getting ridiculous.

Listen--you're obviously trolling here. I don't even know what you are trying to say anymore. How about you just give it up?

Mr.Fantastic says

Begging for mercy. I never thought I’d see the day.
Okay, how about this, if the Case Shiller reports a gain for home prices from January 2011 to June 2011, I’ll stop exposing you as the fraud you truly are.

I was just trying to get you to retain whatever dignity you have left. If you want to waste your time posting lies here, be my guest.

btw--I'm still waiting for you to show when i've ever said home price are going to rise. Just one of your many lies...