patrick.net

Hey –I just noticed someone (Patrick ?) has gone through all the old threads and deleted every post MarinaPrime ever made. I don’t even have rights to ALL the threads (just the ones I started), so don’t blame (or thank) me.

Do you think the pacific heights troll is MP in disguise?

Can't say I'm sorry to see MP purged. I hope primetroll keeps up the poetry though.

HARM, it was an attempt to block MP's comments. I guess the deletion of old comments is a side effect.

Do you think the pacific heights troll is MP in disguise?

Possibly. In that case he is using a new network connection.

HARM, I believe you were CC'ed.

Since we have now voted to keep MP's comment. I will respect that decision.

HARM, it was an attempt to block MP’s comments. I guess the deletion of old comments is a side effect.

Ouch. Any possibility of getting the old comments back? I'm not sorry to see Sauce blocked going forward, but deleting the old posts removes much of the context from the old threads (especially primetroll & TWIT's poetry).

HARM, a copy of the comments should be in your e-mail inbox.

HARM, a copy of the comments should be in your e-mail inbox.

No wonder I didn't see it. I only check that account about once a week.

HARM, Sauce cannot be stopped. He is determined to come back. He switched IP at least twice.

HARM, Sauce cannot be stopped. He is determined to come back. He switched IP at least twice.

Maybe we should start calling him the SAUCINATOR.

HARM, Sauce cannot be stopped. He is determined to come back. He switched IP at least twice.

Troll with a mission. Need I repeat that anyone with a real (paying) job doesn't have time for this??? People here are so nice that they are actually willing to believe his cover story. I would hope he'd stay away, but I'm not even that optimistic.

I see the headline...

SAUCINATOR replaces GOVERNATOR in Sacramento, real estate prices drop 120%

Inquiring mind

That is my biggest fear. There have been so many jobs created (especially in Ca) in the housing and related industries that I'm afraid a housing bust could really hurt the state. And those (like Greenspan) that say there are only little bubbles in separate markets seem to forget that CA has one of the biggest economies in the world. You can't tell me that a major bust here with subsequent job losses will not have an effect on the rest of the country.

You people need to find something to keep yourselves occupied.
This bubble business was interesting, but not THAT interesting. They
people here seem to be vultures waiting for a corpse to show up.
What if nobody dies? You’ll all feel terrible.

I won't feel bad at all. If were all wasting our time, why did you bother to post? I'm here to 'talk' to people who are interesting about a topic I'm interested in. I have no greater stake in it than that.

people here seem to be vultures waiting for a corpse to show up.
What if nobody dies?

Nobody dies? Sounds like a new paradigm to me. ;)

@Ken Baachest,

Well, actually I do have *other* interests, but while I was house-hunting with my wife about 2 years ago, we quickly became "introduced" to the bubble (or at least one of its nasty side-effects: grossly inflated prices beyond reach of mere mortals). After that, learning about its economic/psychological causes became a hobby.

If there were no bubble, I suppose right now I'd be working on my house (which I would have been able to afford w/out an NAAVLP) or maybe trading tips on a home-improvement site. Who knows...?

As far as there being no bubble correction --read the previous threads. I'm not about to re-hash about 2 months of statistics and arguments. To my mind, the bubble's existence has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt. The only question is when and how bad the correction will be.

Sacramento will drop by 100%, and then an additional 20% next year.

120% drop... (giving them away)
Hope the RE agents will be giving their commission money too.

Jack,

Definitely MP. Lafayette Park is a park at the top of Pacific Heights, overlooking the Marina. It's a lovely park, surrounded by a few wonderful homes, some mediocre apartments, and some tragic modern (dread word!) condos.

Also, I'm not sure Peters October prediction is as doomed as you seem to think. I'd be willing to put a bit of cash on YOY being down in october. (Says a guy who almost shorted google...) After all, we've got a couple of interest rate hikes ahead of us still... _smile_

This is all on top of the 50% decline by the end of this month, of course...

Cheerio,
prat

Huh. Check it out. MP says there is a bubble now.

_shrug_

Cheers,
prat

With my luck, i bet the DQNEWS figures will just keep going up Year over Year this month and the rest of the year!

I will not worry too much about median home prices still going up though. As I have said before, I am betting that SF median price will go up on HedgeStreet because this is normal near the end of the boom Same house sale data is much more useful.

MP/LP, my sincere welcome! I kinda admire your persistence. I guess we need more contrarian opinions here. :) I certainly do not hold grudges. I apologize if I might have said things that could have been seen as offensive to you.

By the way, there are quite a few other participants in this blog. Anyone can register and become a threadmaster, which has limited administrative power on his/her threads only.

Also, I’m not sure Peters October prediction is as doomed as you seem to think. I’d be willing to put a bit of cash on YOY being down in october. (Says a guy who almost shorted google…)

Prat, I am not so sure about YOY being down in October. It is not the time to short Google yet. Almost, but not yet. Nevertheless, there are going to be much better short candidates than Google.

(Not investment advice.)

Jack-
Yes, I guess the most we can hope from stats either from CAR or the county assessor is an indication of trends. And speaking of trends, I do agree about resiliency in Marin--at least for certain housing segments/locales. It appears certain segments are in greater demand by working professionals, rich retirees...then there are those abused by speculators. Those segments that are driven up by this speculator hype and "buy before its too late" may get hit harder--especially to the north and west. The increases over the past 5 years have been so huge that it's hard to predict what will happen...perhaps I'll take some time to "speculate" myself

”Support group”? “couda and shoulda”? “LP”?
Sounds like MP, or am I wrong?

add "anyhoo" as well...

New IP, new email, same old Sauce!
As Peter says, I certainly admire your persitence.

Peter P says:
MP/LP, my sincere welcome! I kinda admire your persistence. I guess we need more contrarian opinions here. I certainly do not hold grudges. I apologize if I might have said things that could have been seen as offensive to you.
By the way, there are quite a few other participants in this blog. Anyone can register and become a threadmaster, which has limited administrative power on his/her threads only.

Wow, Peter. being sorry about accidentally deleting his old comments is one thing, but are you actually suggesting Sauce become a threadmaster??

But, even though i believe housing growth will go from +18% YoY to +2-5% YoY over the next several years…..

If growth slows to 2-5 % the flippers will start to lose money (including transaction costs etc) and the bidding wars will stop.
Single bidders will probably offer 5% underprice and correction will gain traction.

Wow, Peter. being sorry about accidentally deleting his old comments is one thing, but are you actually suggesting Sauce become a threadmaster??

Well, anyone who posts responsibly can write threads, if Sauce can really do that. Patrick still has the ability to delete entire threads if they are not worthy. ;)

LP is perhaps an alternate ego of MP.

...it saddens me that I cannot get even one measily potential point for resiliency in my home county, which has been the cornerstone of my intangibles argument.) Talk about stacking the deck!

But, Jack, you don't have to list Marin County --only those counties you think will see price drops by mid-2006. If you think Marin will keep going up, then leave it off your list. Btw, you'll notice I didn't list Marin (because I think it will take longer to fall than less "prime" areas). ;-)

@Cattle

CAR price/sales/inventory statistics
tinyurl.com/9qqzd

NAR price/sales statistics
url.com/a9p4c

DQ News California Home Price Tracker
tinyurl.com/aqq4g

Anyone here know an index that actually reflects inflation, meaning medical expense, energy costs, education and all?

LOL! Oh, stop, astrid, you're killing me!

Just had to share this post with you from Ben's site ("Oversight Too Little, Too Late?" thread). Cuts through the crap on so many levels:

Anonymous said...
One thing is for sure:

9:07 AM

@Dipanjan,

Excellent primer on the government's blatant manipulation of the CPI. I'd highly recommend it along with practically any Bill Fleckenstein article on the subject. Thanks!

@astrid & Veritas,

You may want to revise those predictions - remember the dead pool is only for nominal price drops by end of June, 2006, not over the course of the entire crash/correction (re-read the rules above). I doubt drops of 30% or more are even possible in that time frame.

After the June, 2006 numbers are in next year, I expect we'll want to have another dead pool for 2007!

Cover of barrons:

http://online.barrons.com/public/main/

Cheers,
prat

@mp

It is a tale/ Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,/ Signifying nothing

SQT, quoting Shakespeare?

I swoon.

Cheerio,
prat

Prat

Here's another one that's appropriate. Shakespeare's the master for a reason.

@mp
Asses are made to bear,/ and so are you

I'm certainly not a fan of MP's style, but my YoY prediction would be similar to his.

Face

You actually have a point. I am certainly not one to give MP any pat's on the back since he drives me nuts. But his predictions are reasonable for a housing bull. I don't necessarily agree with him, but I'd be willing to give him credit if he's right. I guess it really does come down to a style issue. If he could mellow out he would find people on this site would be willing to debate the issue w/him.