patrick.net

With all the foreclosures coming on market I predict they will crash and burn. Of course with government and Fed price support, most of it behind the scenes you never know. Around my area (San Bruno/Pacifica) there are lots of bank owned properties starting to show up, I can't imagine that San Jose is any different.

I'm actually seeing flipper lisiting getting into contracts , almost 250K more than what they paid.

Look at this one , sold for 530K to investor and then went pending again within 2 months at 688K.

Isn't it amazing ?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/1116-Maxey-Ct-95132/home/1442819

That's a big spike but I see the similar spike in Beginning 2010 also.
What remains to be seen is whether "sold price" follows this up-tick.

its just people who have no other ability in life. I think they will disappear once they lose enough money. Our here in Woodland Hills I know of a few flippers that have lost quite a good amount of money lately.

People like that destroy communities and really make profit without providing any benefit to the society. So if you see a lot of flippers in a community just avoid it. You'll otherwise end up in a place devoid of soul, where neighbors don't know or care to know each other (since they are only there for a few years to flip the place), everything gets run down overtime because they obviously won't care about long term, followed by crime. I see that pattern all too often.

would the news about future loan limits have anything to do with it??

ChrisLA says

So if you see a lot of flippers in a community just avoid it. You’ll otherwise end up in a place devoid of soul, where neighbors don’t know or care to know each other (since they are only there for a few years to flip the place), everything gets run down overtime because they obviously won’t care about long term, followed by crime. I see that pattern all too often.

My definition of a flipper must be different than yours. I understood them to be people buying run-down or cosmetically challenged homes and spending a month or two fixing them up before reselling them. No true flipper would live in their flip house. Or keep it for more than 2 months. The holding costs would eat up all their profits.

It is a just a bunch of GREATER FOOLS in the end, I say. They will (some will win, and most will lose) as prices coming down, and down for years to come.

E-man says

$688k is about fair market value for that home. Not sure why some of Patnet readers are still complaining about the housing market. People are making money out there. I’m putting together a team right now

Well please do check back in and tell us how you're killing it in 2011.

E-man says

cloud13 says

I’m actually seeing flipper lisiting getting into contracts , almost 250K more than what they paid.

Look at this one , sold for 530K to investor and then went pending again within 2 months at 688K.

Isn’t it amazing ?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/1116-Maxey-Ct-95132/home/1442819

$688k is about fair market value for that home. Not sure why some of Patnet readers are still complaining about the housing market. People are making money out there. I’m putting together a team right now

Good luck to you and your team! Invest wisely :)

Cvoc13 says

It is a just a bunch of GREATER FOOLS

Check out the surnames, I suspect they come from a part of the world where the portions of their incomes that go towards housing are bargains compared to where they came from, particularly to live in Fortress neighborhoods that they covet. Could be they see us as the FOOLS for not being open minded enough to see things their way. That said, I won't see it their way, I'd be more like the (former) locals and say, "F**k it, I am outa here". There's a whole lot more of the USA for housing than foreigner-coveted Fortress neighborhoods along the Coast.

@ E-man 688 K is not the FMV becuase the guy paid 530K a couple of months ago.
FHA is the culprit here, their never have their skin the game.

I spoke to a Chinese Realtor today, these guys have formed a team to flip properties.
Every one is doing it now.

@ E-man 688 K is not the FMV becuase the guy paid 530K a couple of months ago.
FHA is the culprit here, they never have their skin in the game.

one a different note, I spoke to a Chinese Realtor today, these guys have formed a team to flip properties.
Every one is doing it now.
Expect 2011 to be a deciding year.

cloud13 says

I spoke to a Chinese Realtor today, these guys have formed a team to flip properties.
Every one is doing it now.

Was happened during 2009 till early 2010 here in DC area. Not sure about it happening again though, buying home few monthes ago and then trying to sell it with 150K markup is quite common here in these days.

Flippers that aren't careful will ride the market down like everyone else.

I don't disagree with E-man, there are certainly reasonable deals to be had in some parts of San Jose where they pencil out or are close. Those I would consider to be at bottom (I can't see why they'd ever go below rent value).

OTH, the mid-high market (450K)+ is where I would be very cautious. Plenty of downward room in that segment IMO.

@ Eman and all of those who are deciding to be in this game, Just see for yourself the number of homes sold in a zip code in 2010 as compared to previous years. It's actually a fraction and where do you think the unsold inventory is going to be pushed. Here is the data for 95132

Year # of Sales Median Price Median Sq. Ft. Median $ per Sq. Ft. Value at Median $ per Sq. Ft.
2010 64 $538,000 1,580 $327 $417,073
2009 296 $480,000 1,513 $313 $399,662
2008 256 $566,000 1,577 $359 $458,250
2007 239 $685,000 1,579 $422 $537,911
2006 242 $680,000 1,577 $419 $534,553
2005 328 $660,000 1,564 $416 $530,053
2004 365 $563,000 1,577 $345 $439,683
2003 320 $484,000 1,598 $294 $374,938
2002 221 $470,000 1,577 $294 $374,948
2001 168 $480,000 1,690 $292 $373,054
2000 181 $445,000 1,577 $282 $359,835
1999 228 $342,000 1,598 $206 $263,471
1998 209 $295,000 1,598 $186 $237,504
1997 245 $268,000 1,772 $159 $203,691
1996 126 $231,000 1,547 $146 $187,135
1995 108 $225,000 1,598 $142 $181,769
1994 119 $215,000 1,577 $138 $176,618
1993 111 $219,500 1,577 $137 $175,792
1992 95 $220,000 1,577 $144 $184,443
1991 85 $230,000 1,536 $145 $185,258
1990 73 $246,000 1,582 $159 $202,910
1989 88 $260,000 1,580 $167 $213,240
1988 130 $187,000 1,577 $119 $152,363

I mean only 64 homes were sold in entire 2010 in 95132.

CrazyMan says

Flippers that aren’t careful will ride the market down like everyone else.
I don’t disagree with E-man, there are certainly reasonable deals to be had in some parts of San Jose where they pencil out or are close. Those I would consider to be at bottom (I can’t see why they’d ever go below rent value).
OTH, the mid-high market (450K)+ is where I would be very cautious. Plenty of downward room in that segment IMO.

I want to believe this is whats sort of happening all over CA now. Rental property in not so great areas looking better. SFH to make VA jay Jay happy in the nicer areas are still not looking like a deal to me. (changing as we speak think??) not so sure I'd gamble with that now. so for me I'd Like to Rent in the desireable area I want to live. and own rentals in the less than steller areas. not re inventing the wheel here right. just sort of coming through with the same sort of retirement plan. But I'm in the I.E. now looking around lots of deals. what are the tenants going to do for jobs???? guess let them worry about that right ;-)

I love how there is still this "I might miss the boat fear" with some of you good folks. it's hard to sit and watch I know. but me thinks the patient, less greedy person will just do great in the future, have cash?... even better. what's the hurry people?? sit back and watch the fireworks (houses change hands.) if anything we all should see that there is no hurry,...right??

I just hope one day the nicer stuff starts to reach rental parity,...Maybe a dream?

^ lol

roberto i award you 1000 internetz

Otherwise why would so many of these guys would risk their cash, They seem fully optimistic about the summer-2011.

Why did so many risk their cash in 2006?

Stupidity? Ignorance?

E-man says

As you know, the 95132 market has been HOT for over a year now.

It's down 6% YOY and sales are down 29% YOY. How is that "hot"?

I'm noticing more flippers too. The foreclosures dont seem to be happening. or they're being sold out the backdoor on the courthouse steps and never making it to the regular market.

You can still see the foreclosed sale price on redfin and the new jacked up flipped asking price.

toothfairy says

I’m noticing more flippers too. The foreclosures dont seem to be happening. or they’re being sold out the backdoor on the courthouse steps and never making it to the regular market.
You can still see the foreclosed sale price on redfin and the new jacked up flipped asking price.

Flipping will continue, but not all sell/buy activity is governed by flippers. Prices have to go down to affordable levels. Prices will keep going down until a person with good credit does not have hard time getting a loan. Cmon guys! Did you forget your economics 101.

Nomograph says

ChrisLA says

So if you see a lot of flippers in a community just avoid it. You’ll otherwise end up in a place devoid of soul, where neighbors don’t know or care to know each other (since they are only there for a few years to flip the place), everything gets run down overtime because they obviously won’t care about long term, followed by crime. I see that pattern all too often.

You don’t know what a flipper is.

Out here its someone who buys a house for 5 years and flips it to the next sucker. Not sure if this definition carries universally.

ChrisLA says

Nomograph says

ChrisLA says

So if you see a lot of flippers in a community just avoid it. You’ll otherwise end up in a place devoid of soul, where neighbors don’t know or care to know each other (since they are only there for a few years to flip the place), everything gets run down overtime because they obviously won’t care about long term, followed by crime. I see that pattern all too often.

You don’t know what a flipper is.

Out here its someone who buys a house for 5 years and flips it to the next sucker. Not sure if this definition carries universally.

No--that's not a flipper.

It's likely someone that gets a good price on a home going in, covers defects, and fixes the defects that cannot be covered. The house gets relisted about 2 months later (in many cases, relisted with the same seller agent from before because they gave them such a great deal). They likely would profit from the sale even if they didn't do any work on the property because they usually get such an awesome price to begin with.

How do they get these awesome prices? I have no frickin idea. But I want in on the action.

bubblesitter says

toothfairy says

I’m noticing more flippers too. The foreclosures dont seem to be happening. or they’re being sold out the backdoor on the courthouse steps and never making it to the regular market.

You can still see the foreclosed sale price on redfin and the new jacked up flipped asking price.

Flipping will continue, but not all sell/buy activity is governed by flippers. Prices have to go down to affordable levels. Prices will keep going down until a person with good credit does not have hard time getting a loan. Cmon guys! Did you forget your economics 101.

affordable to who though? Bill Gates or burger flipper at McDonalds. I know my economics 101. It's all about supply and demand. Right now there's very little supply. It only takes a few Bill Gates types to keep prices afloat.

@robertoaribas

Thanks.

Flippers selling to Flippers Rich this and that, It is clearly a sign of the recovery is failing, without the flippers, where would the market be? it is exactly like when the bubble was made, it was all the wannabe's chasing the same homes, that drove the prices, up, You wanted it, and he wanted it and she wanted it, BID BID BID and over pay and over pay, now only it is a smaller group Flippers selling to one another... That is not a market I want to be anything but SHORT.

toothfairy says

It’s all about supply and demand. Right now there’s very little supply.

God almighty! you must be a young grasshopper! I heard this so many many times over
the past decades and each decade has proven this to be false.

Another typical sound bite from realtors....

There are other variables aside supply and demand which have influenced prices.

So why did prices been dropping, if your "limited supply" equation is correct ?

Greed is so blind and evil....