patrick.net

I think silver is heading to $22 for a supreme shakeout before it heads higher.

theoakman says

I posted a few weeks ago that if Silver hit $26, I’m a buyer. Damn it, it only hit $26.50. I’m still of that opinion. As it stands, I don’t want to buy at this price. I have a good enough position and will only add to it below $30. In short, I have no friggin clue whats going to happen and I’m content to hold.

I was shooting for $25.... and look what happened. Figures - there were huge gains to be made almost overnight.

joshuatrio says

theoakman says

I posted a few weeks ago that if Silver hit $26, I’m a buyer. Damn it, it only hit $26.50. I’m still of that opinion. As it stands, I don’t want to buy at this price. I have a good enough position and will only add to it below $30. In short, I have no friggin clue whats going to happen and I’m content to hold.

I was shooting for $25…. and look what happened. Figures - there were huge gains to be made almost overnight.

If you bought call options on Silver Wheaton at that point, you would have hit it out of the park.

This is a hard market to read. At one end of the spectrum, we have investments that I swore by 6 months ago skyrocketing (Silver, Oil, Commodities, Potash). On the other hand, they've gone up so much, so fast, that I swear they have big pullbacks, especially in the face of economic stagnation. Unfortunately, we have a middle eastern uprising every 2 weeks and it creates even more chaos in the markets. QE, while in effect, is not on anyone's mind anymore.

In 2009, the S&P rallied 30% and the pundits claimed we were pricing in the recovery. Today, the S&P is up 100% from the lows and there has not been any recovery in the US. I gotta believe a mini fall-2008 crash is in store. $100 oil does not mix well with 10% unemployment (20% real unemployment).

1. Ha!

2. I grew up playing Bubble Bobble on original NES and haven't seen a reference to it in YEARS!

3. This is my first of 3 required 'comments,' so forgive the lack of substance in my remarks. I'm just checking a box here...

TQNT, AAPL, SSN, and SOLR. Currently long on TQNT, AAPL, and SSN. Waiting to build up the funds for an SOLR purchase.

shrekgrinch says

That’s because there is no such thing as ‘Laissez faire government policy’, really. The concept only exists in the minds of do-gooder busybodies who want to justify taking on even more power for the State.

Sure there is, look at Somalia.

shrekgrinch says

[Ayn Rand collected Social Security]

Where are copies of that data? So you SAY this and I have to buy it? Especially given all the other unfounded crap you guys post on here just to troll?
WHERE IS THE PROOF?

Source from here:

"Oral History of Ayn Rand" by Scott McConnell (founder of the media department at the Ayn Rand Institute)

I don't happen to have Lincoln's death certificate to feed into my scanner and post, but I find it reasonable to believe he's dead.

Vicente says

shrekgrinch says

[Ayn Rand collected Social Security]
Where are copies of that data? So you SAY this and I have to buy it? Especially given all the other unfounded crap you guys post on here just to troll?
WHERE IS THE PROOF?

Source from here:
“Oral History of Ayn Rand” by Scott McConnell (founder of the media department at the Ayn Rand Institute)

Shrekgrinch is a Birther. Proof does not exist unless you have a magical LONG form.

Vicente says

I don’t happen to have Lincoln’s death certificate to feed into my scanner and post, but I find it reasonable to believe he’s dead.

But was Abraham Lincoln a natural born citizen? No one has a LONG form birth certificate for him. And he did, after all, free the black slaves. Clearly Lincoln was a Commie-terrorist-muslim-socialist who hated America.

GOOG, HNT, PBR, SBUX have done well over years for us.

AIG tanked.

Walmart and Microsoft have been pretty flat. They are struggling to come up with a great idea for the future.

Not to get picky, but does this include state and local taxes that are "unfunded mandates"? Does this include social security and medicare?

Would also be interesting to see a breakdown of people actually paying taxes and those that get EITC. This graph is interesting but when you shift a significant amount of people to being "on the take" the money has to come from somewhere and % of GDP is pretty much meaningless. In other words, if you keep shifting the tax burden up the food chain and suddenly a percentage of people are no longer PAYING but are on the RECEIVING end, what does graph really mean? Perhaps a more meaningful example of how this is flawed would be this.... The price of a gallon of milk was X. The gubmint decides that 50% of people get milk for free and everyone else has to pay 2X. When you divide the gallons/recipients, it doesn't look like the cost went up at all, does it?

EightBall says

In other words, if you keep shifting the tax burden up the food chain

We've actually been slowly shifting the tax burden DOWN the food chain... (as a % of income)

Yes yes but you see.... if Richy Rich gets a tax break he will hire more people and spread the wealth. Unemployment will go to nearly zero and wages and benefits will shoot up as all this wealth naturally trickles down. Wait until you see the results of our NEXT Five Year Plan citizen, this time it will surely work and it will blow your socks off.

EightBall says

Raising the top-end rate will accomplish nothing until the tax code is uprooted and replaced with something that doesn’t have 50 years worth of loopholes.

So then why don't we just do that, and then if the top-end actual payments do not improve we can start fixing the rest of the tax code.

In this case, do not demand that the fix should be done all at once.

EightBall says

Raising the top-end rate will accomplish nothing

Seemed to work fine 1994-2000.

EightBall says

It is equally ridiculous that a significant number of people pay zero income taxes. And you wonder why the people in the middle are pissed off!

The problem is this group doesn't make any money. I don't understand this argument--anyone is free to quit their current job and instead flip burgers. You probably won't pay any taxes. Do you think you'll be better off?

Until we figure out a way to create more well paying jobs, complaining that poor people don't pay taxes seems a little ridiculous.

Yeah, taxation has been fairly flat, but spending hasn't been:

For the same period (fed + state + local):

It's been fairly flat since the 80's but a huge spike due to stimulus & GDP breaking it's growth trend.

Nomograph says

SF ace says

Nomograph says

Mr.Fantastic says

Does someone earning $30,000 actually have to send a check?

No, I’m sure you are exempt.

30K in earned income with two childrens is $3,232 in Earned income tax credit and another $1,400+ in refundable additional child tax credit. So income tax is around negative $4,700. The IRS sends a check to you without paying $1.

Great. Now Mr. Fantastic gets government welfare.

I'm not sure. The equation differs when your parents can claim you as a dependent, doesn't it?

Like today's gem from Tea Party Nation leader Judson Phillips?

Tea Party Leader: Restricting Voting to Property Owners ‘Makes a Lot of Sense’

The Founding Fathers originally said, they put certain restrictions on who gets the right to vote. It wasn't you were just a citizen and you got to vote. Some of the restrictions, you know, you obviously would not think about today. But one of those was you had to be a property owner. And that makes a lot of sense, because if you're a property owner you actually have a vested stake in the community. If you're not a property owner, you know, I'm sorry but property owners have a little bit more of a vested interest in the community than non-property owners.

SF ace says

or a family with 2 children(s), that is 0 tax terrortory as standard deduction of 11K and four exemption 14K = 25K. Taxable income of 5K for a family of four is $500 in tax, which is easily washed out by the child tax credit.

further 30K in earned income with two childrens is $3,232 in Earned income tax credit and another $1,400+ in refundable additional child tax credit. So income tax is around negative $4,700. The IRS sends a check to you without paying $1.

Let's not forget they are paying social security and medicare, so their overall taxes are not really negative. Just the income tax part of it. I know that's what you were talking about, but some people forget.

I hope they are making some cash on the side, because I don't know how a family of four is going to live on 30K.

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

What could anyone expect. The states thinks it is a progressive country because it does not give the rich hunting licenses to simply drive around and shoot the poor and let their pets feast on the victim’s bodies for their entertainment.

You have to like this guy.

msilenus says

Too pie-in-the-sky?

Yes. Republicans love their money. As do all the powerful. They will reverse engineer reasons to keep taxes too low until way after it's too late. It's sad but true.

I have often voiced the view that higher taxes on high income make sense regardless of how much it increases revenues (although it would). Because it forces the powerful to make tough choices about spending. Including such things as military spending and corporate welfare.

The two things that could save us are campaign finance reform (for real), and higher taxes on high income. Those two things alone would make a profound difference in this country.

"Despite the cries of the doom-and-gloomers who claim that all manufacturing has gone to China, the sector is on a tear. The US is still the largest manufacturing nation in the world by a large margin."

Back in the day, I had the privilege of seeing some of the Sun Micro and Apple Mfg production plants in Warm Springs, Fremont as well as the Semi Plants in Sunnyvale and Santa Clara. Much of that has left the valley to overseas plants.

Quote from Former Sun CEO Worries About Region's Prospects.

"Maybe I'm sounding like an old guy, but [Silicon Valley] ain't what it used to be. I, for one, don't think this is the best place in the world to start a company."

Nano- todays supply chain manufacturing spanning global locations is beyond your comprehension.

Manufacturing employment as percentage of total employment

Capacity Utilization of Mfg

So we're basically back in terms of capacity utilization to the jobless recession times of 2003-2004.

Of course, we've added $3T of national debt since the turnaround of 1Q09, over $1000/mo/household. Total government spending (not counting social security) over the past 2 years has been over $10T, or ~$4000/household/month.

'Tis curious, how long this game can go on. If Japan is any example, at least 15 years, but I don't think Japan is an example -- they had the advantage of starting their swan dive when their baby boom was in their 40s -- we're starting ours with a baby boom that's 3X larger in its 50s and 60s.

justme says

EightBall says

Raising the top-end rate will accomplish nothing until the tax code is uprooted and replaced with something that doesn’t have 50 years worth of loopholes.

So then why don’t we just do that, and then if the top-end actual payments do not improve we can start fixing the rest of the tax code.

In this case, do not demand that the fix should be done all at once.

Because closing all of the loopholes isn't going to happen. It's like whack-a-mole with the money shifting about.

Troy says

EightBall says

Raising the top-end rate will accomplish nothing

Seemed to work fine 1994-2000.

It works great when the tax is retroactive and most of the people have no chance to react. It is hard for a dead person to travel back and time and put their money into a tax haven. But you can't do this every year. I think you are also forgetting the money created out of thin air in the dotcom bubble.

tatupu70 says

EightBall says

It is equally ridiculous that a significant number of people pay zero income taxes. And you wonder why the people in the middle are pissed off!

The problem is this group doesn’t make any money. I don’t understand this argument–anyone is free to quit their current job and instead flip burgers. You probably won’t pay any taxes. Do you think you’ll be better off?

Until we figure out a way to create more well paying jobs, complaining that poor people don’t pay taxes seems a little ridiculous.

I agree about the jobs wholeheartedly. But you've got to get people to have SOME skin in the game. I'm not talking about making them pay some ridiculous amount - but they need to be contributing something. If what I hear that 50% of people pay no "income" taxes (anyone with a job pays SS/Medicrap) is true, I cringe. Half of the population shouldn't be paying for the other half.

There is obviously a bottom end that needs to be taken care of in some form or fashion. I just don't think it is more than 15-20% of the population. I'm not for punishing people for having a lot of children but having them means you have to pay for them. Why we continue to perform social engineering through the tax code is beyond my comprehension. Taxes are for funding the government which should 1) take care of those that can't take care of themselves (not WON'T take care of themselves, but literally CAN'T) 2) build common infrastructure for the benefit of society and 3) Defense of the country. I'm sure you can come up with some others that most would agree with and probably some that are far more controversial but encouraging people to take on massive debt on a house (an example of social engineering) should probably NOT be on the list.

The left needs to get some better PR because they are on the correct side of the issue on tax equality. They appear to most to want to punish people that have a lot of money. The argument needs to be presented as a percentage of income NOT total dollar figures. It doesn't SEEM fair that one person pays $10,000,000 in taxes and another person pays $5000. But when you change it around that one person is paying 3% and the other is paying 10% (just as an example...don't beat me up for pulling numbers out of the sky) then the picture is completely different. The screwed up tax code and the way SS/Medicrap is taken makes it even more confusing for the average Joe. Throw in all of the fees, state and local taxes, add-in taxes (like built-in tax on gasoline), and you've got an impossible system of trying to figure out who-is-paying-for-what-and-when-and-why.

The right is correct in the view of government efficiency (aside from their do-not-touch-the-military zeal). Anyone that has worked for the government KNOWS that government accounting rewards overspending and punishes efficiency and cost savings. What's really screwed up is that the right "wins" with their tax argument (when they are wrong) and the left "wins" on their never-ending support of big brother government which is also wrong.

shrekgrinch says

The tax rate has been as high as 91% and all we got was the same average income tax take as a percentage of GDP as we did in other years. The income tax turnip can’t be squeezed for much more blood than it already is.

The conclusion you draw from the graph is completely wrong. Also, have you looked at the distribution of wealth under the different tax approaches?

shrekgrinch says

And one more denialist. The graph COMPLETELY is representative of Hauser’s Law. How can I get completely wrong conclusions..especially with the subject line of this post is totally class warfare BS that implies that we should have raised tax rates that flies in the face of the graph data’s conclusion (again Hauser’s Law)?

All the graph shows is that tax revenues have varied from ~13% to ~20% of GDP. Any other conclusions you draw are not supported by the graph--they are your deluded opinion. It's not nearly as simple as you make it out to be...

shrekgrinch says

tatupu70 says
Also, have you looked at the distribution of wealth under the different tax approaches?
What does that have to do with ‘Total Tax Revenue as Percentage of GDP’? Nothing. Nothing at all.

It has everything to do with your assertion that raising marginal tax rates will have no effect on total tax revenue. Why don't you think a little before replying....

shrekgrinch says

But what it will do is reduce the percentage of the tax revenues collected that the upper percentiles ‘contribute’. Now, the top 20% of earners provide over 75% of the income tax revenues collected. The bottom 50% contribute ZILCH in income taxes collected. That is pretty damn progressive as far as who contributes to the money pot the government collects ever year from income taxation. But it has nothing to do with the total amount as a percentage of GDP the government collects. Nothing, as your own graph demonstrates.
But if you want, we can go back to 91% rates…where the top earners contributed around 8% of total income tax revenues as well. Johnny Lunchbucket footed most of the bill back then. Yeah, go ahead. Won’t break the 20% of GDP barrier, will be highly regressive but hey! You get to ‘feel better’ and fool yourself some more in disbelieving the truth of the matter.

You seriously don't see how the distribution of wealth is important? When 5% of the people are getting 90% of the income, of course they are paying the vast majority of the tax.

Is shrek really trying to try to sell Hauser again? There was a long post about the bs of Hauser last year, just goes to show a bad idea never dies.

shrekgrinch says

Eventually, everything will be either fully or heavily automated. Most jobs lost in the last 20 years has happened because of automation, not offshoring. And all those jobs offshored will eventually be replaced by automation as well…and in a much more brutally shorter time frame than we experienced the offshoring wave that will catch India and China by complete surprise. Just be glad it will be their problem, not ours.

You have no clue. The production plants in China making US products today are no different regarding automation than they were in decades prior.

You think someone was manually soldering motherboards in Fremont or wafers in a semi plant?

Oh course you can still build Deere tractors domestic. But the Deere workers in US factories didnt go bonkers overpaying for homes unlike here in Silicon Valley. At least Deere workers have some common sense.

shrekgrinch says

Eventually, everything will be either fully or heavily automated. Most jobs lost in the last 20 years has happened because of automation, not offshoring

No. Like the Semi industry it was because of competition from Japanese who dumped Semis below cost to manufacture in order to gain market share. Silicon Valley production was 70-80% of global share back in 1985. That dropped to single digit by 1990s.

Like many in RE business will do hype tech business to their own end but never listen to what tech leaders say...

"work at a more reasonable salary because they don’t have to spend $3.5 million on a home"

First off this is the results of a survey of purchasing agents, not any kind of actual measure of industrial activity.

"The US is still the largest manufacturing nation in the world by a large margin". How about a per capita number? This US is the third largest country in the world. India doesn't manufacture much and China is still very rural. The next largest manufacturing country is Germany with about a third of the US population.

I've wondered for a while how manufacturing is being calculated these days. If a manufacturer brings in 90% of the parts for a car from overseas then sells the car for $20,000 is that considered $20,000 in US manufacturing?

What say you Nomo, this is your thread how about some actual numbers and facts on this instead of a survey?

Vicente says

Yes yes but you see…. if Richy Rich gets a tax break he will hire more people and spread the wealth. Unemployment will go to nearly zero and wages and benefits will shoot up as all this wealth naturally trickles down. Wait until you see the results of our NEXT Five Year Plan citizen, this time it will surely work and it will blow your socks off.

That's right Dorothy. Click your heels three times and say, "I believe in Voodoo Economics. I believe in Voodoo Economics. I believe in Voodoo Economics..."

(To those of you too young to know or who are too old to remember Daddy Bush (George H. W. Bush Sr.) said that "Trickle Down Economics" a.k.a. "Supply Side Economics" a.k.a. "Reaganomics" was "Voodoo Economics" when running against Ronald Reagan during the Republican Primary in 1979-1980.)

Here's the pdf thanks to the LA Times. Here are some notable quotes from then candidate George H. W. Bush Sr.:

"...Reagan made "a list of phoney promises" on defense, energy, and economic policy. And he labeled Reagan's tax cut proposal "voo-doo economic policy" and "economic madness.""

"...Bush hopes, he said, to get Pennsylvania voters to think of him as "a guy who is a conservative but a reasonable fellow. He's not going to promise that you can cut $210 billion in taxes and still put the budget in balance..."

"...And he's not going to say that you can burden the states with all of these welfare programs..."

History has proven that he was, in fact, correct. Unfortunately he bought in to these disasterous policies once he was Vice President then President. GHWB was a prophet before was shackled to the wooly wackiness that surrounded Reagan and the development of the Reagan Economic Mythology.

shrekgrinch says

You asked: “Also, have you looked at the distribution of wealth under the different tax approaches?[VAT,LVT being those different tax approaches I had mentioned]”
And I responded accurately: “What does that have to do with ‘Total Tax Revenue as Percentage of GDP’? Nothing. Nothing at all.”
Which is correct.

Actually, it's not.

shrekgrinch says

The flaws in your ‘arguments’ consistently are the chronic denial of certain unalienable facts: 1) You can’t get more out of the ‘rich’ via income taxes except when utilized to promote incentives

I've seen no evidence that this is true. You can keep saying it here, but unfortunately, that doesn't make it true.

shrekgrinch says

No. But they were doing it via more manual methods back then than would be done today. So your comparison via going down nostalgia’s road is again null and void.
And you keep insisting that the US is like Silicon Valley except when you want to hypocritically switch gears

How do you manually check each wafer which have millions transistors each back in the day?

shrekgrinch says

Fact: US manufacturing output is has been steadily increasing these past twenty years.

You buy an Ipod/Ipad, HP PC/Server or Juniper or any other products.. its all the same. Many SV companies have outsourced their mfg to SCM like Solectron and Flextronics which inturn mfg global. None of these items or components are made here. Are you counting that as export or import ? Fact is there is very little need for even domestic Cost Accountants these days, since all you get from the SCM is a monthly bill you book as Cost of Sale. The shipments doent even pass through US ports since they are delivered from global warehouses to global clients.

Your numbers are meaningless.

shrekgrinch says

Sorry, but YES. Overall more jobs have been lost to automation than offshoring. Your penchant for just looking at niches you may have some knowledge about doesn’t substitute for reasoned macroeconomics analysis using empirical data.

All the numbers show are increases of Finished Goods inventories and COS, it does not show "where" production has occured. That takes a lot more digging. The current analysis is far outdated since production has evolved globaly.

bob2356 says

I’ve wondered for a while how manufacturing is being calculated these days. If a manufacturer brings in 90% of the parts for a car from overseas then sells the car for $20,000 is that considered $20,000 in US manufacturing?

Finished goods as it sits on the Balance Sheet, interpreted as actual products made. No distinction is being made if mfg onsite or simply purchased by SCM. Much like a retailer which purchases form a third party. Raw materials and Work in process Inventory, which become finished goods has shrunk and rare on todays Balance Sheets.

Troy says

Capacity Utilization of Mfg

Reclassify MFG to R&D parks and mfg utilization changes. Thats pretty much what we saw since the early 90s as former SV mfg plants were mothballed and converted to office space.

What this really demonstrates is that spending growth has been much faster then revenue growth. Spending growth is the primary issue and is not addressed by a chart on tax rates.

In addition, it has been repeatedly averred that arguing on the merits without ad hominem assaults is of value here. Ther sexually laced pejorative of "teabagger" is a most unwelcome and peurile element for a serious erudite colloquy.

In the end, we wouldn't need all of this crap if the powers to be on both LEFT and RIGHT weren't F--KING us all. Where's the change? It never did change. We Americans wouldn't be in the pickles we're now in had they all not colluded on some level, or another. Greedy bastards.

Here's my reality as a business owner and I'm not alone by any standard.
--I spend $160 to $240 a week in gas to give free estimates. Free, because I must compete. Now those numbers may be decimated by what's coming down the pipeline in the next few weeks/months in terms of the price of oil per barrel. Thank you, BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT
--Workers Comp just went up, up to 25%, so the letter from the state declares. Thank you Mr. Brown and the other bastards that did this to us. BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT
--My liability will probably be next.
--Materials went up 15% because of the trickle down. They too have to offset their costs and expenses per the relatively established economy.
--I have to give competitive bids to remain in business, which is failing because of the economy. Thank you to the bastards that did this to us. BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT
--I had to lay off 3 guys last year and my suppliers laid off 20% of their workforces this year on January 1st. Thank you to the bastards that did this to us. BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT
--Oh, Hyper Inflation is around the corner. Check your bills and prove me wrong. Thank you, BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT

--I've decided to not only invest in precious metals, but also in TOILET PAPER. Given our incredible track record for innovation, I'm hoping someone figures a way to eat toilet paper and shit money.

--I personally, am voting for real change this time and it certainly won't be for Obama, or anyone else that has a track record of being a puppet. I might just vote for Ron Paul. Piss on the news outlets too. I've had it with all of them including FOX.

Everyone needs to quit grumbling at what's happening on the branches of the tree. The root is where all the problems reside. Treat the root good and the branches will show some amazing results. Quit swinging from branch to branch on the vines.

The higher oil goes up in price the more devalued our dollar is. Oil used to be bought and sold exclusively in dollars. Now China and Russia have broken the tradition for their own currency.

In the end, you've got to give it to the Teabaggers. If there's one thing that they accomplished successfully, it's that they have gotten together on their own dime and complained in the American kind of way about what they feel passionate about, which is more than I can say for all those were paid to protest in other scenarios. Protest, or be ousted in one way, or another.

Extropico says

What this really demonstrates is that spending growth has been much faster then revenue growth. Spending growth is the primary issue and is not addressed by a chart on tax rates.

I already posted this chart (federal + state + local govt spending), but nobody thought it worthy of discussion:

People don't understand that without gov't spending increase in 2008-2010 we wouldn't have an economy right now.

Economies do not handle discontinuities very well, and the prior economy essentially shattered itself in 9/2008.

This chart:

Debt take-on (YOY) red = private, blue = federal

shows Federal borrowing taking over for collapsing private borrowing in late-2008.

Federal deficits were ~$200B/yr during the bubble boom but household debt was rising well over +$1T/yr 2005-2007. This was essentially the Bush Economy -- a massive debt bubble machine.

2007 was the spin-down and 2008 was when it all fell apart.

But you can't just withdraw $1T of cash money inflow from an economy an expect it to remain functional -- there are too many dependent pieces and given all the leverage a laissez-faire policy in 2008 would have basically destroyed everything and everyone.

So in 2008-2009 government borrowing was juiced +$1T, and the Fed has now monetized another $1T+ of debt to try to keep the System together.