patrick.net

MarkInSF says

I think this Republican “dissent” is even better than the majority report. Notably:

yeah I read it and thought it was pretty innocuous. There's a 2nd dissent from the AEI guy that of course goes beyond the bend tho.

MarkInSF says

you MUST explain how that also caused a bubble in commercial real estate

Frankly I think the equity being liberated 2002-2007 was the primary driver of everything else.

Home prices ratcheted up in response to the tax cuts and interest rate drops of 2001-2003.

Here's a fun graph: Homeowner equity, 1990-2010

The equity bubble jumped from $10T in 2001 to $16T in 2006 -- and this $1T per year of free money was really hitting the economy.

People say China was importing our inflation, but they were also exporting it back to us by partially funding our housing bubble. Same thing with the oil exporters, they were also cycling their trade surplus back to us via debt.

This bubble economy then extended to other sectors -- CRE -- and also propagated to other economies.

So the mortgage rate falling from 7.5% to ~5% was a really massive global stimulus. It gave the US consumer a big hit on the meth pipe that lasted right through 2007.

What also was happening was the bubble blow-off of 2005-2006 was being supported by fraud. This allowed the early movers of 2001-2004 to "cash out" as it where as the credit cycle started eating itself and buyers started leaving the building.

Troy said:
"You seem to think that “fraud and incompetence” doesn’t exist in the private sector too?"

Certainly not in the scale that we see in the Federal Government. The fraud numbers in Medicare are staggering. Absolutely staggering. While insurance profits are very small.........essentially making 5 cents on the dollar.

Look, I will admit I am very biased. I work as an engineering consultant for California municipalities. I have seen first hand over the last 20 years how inefficient and grossly overpaid these union protected government enterprises operate. It used to be that you go work for the government for less pay, but had better benefits and job security. During the boom years, their pay and pensions skyrocketed - and now the Democrats are screaming bloody murder and fleeing the State instead of implementing modest pension and pay reform.

Troy said:
"Thing is, this nation is paying twice as much as the rest of the world for health care."

Yes - see the GAO report regarding the Medicare fraud. You could eliminate all insurance profits and it would hardly put a dent in the government waste. There is alot wrong with our healthcare system, insurance profits are a drop in the bucket and a big diversion.

Next we can talk about our ridiculous tort lobby and what that does to our healthcare costs.

While insurance profits are very small………essentially making 5 cents on the dollar.

This is the same game people play with Big Pharma. Looking at their profits and not their SG&A, which is gold-bricked all to hell. I just posted above how the top 4 insurers are raking 25% of the flow, and you just ignored it.

The fraud numbers in Medicare are staggering.

Actually, that 10% "waste" was not all fraud, just Medicare overpaying for stuff.

Furthermore, Wellpoint alone's profit was $5B on $55B in sales, just about that 10%, PLUS they had another ~20% in administrative overheads.

tort lobby and what that does to our healthcare costs.

Not much, actually. The big win is single payer eliminating the profits in the sector via cost controls. Obamacare is trying to outsource cost controls onto private insurers, but that is only a half-measure and is easily gamed.

You could eliminate all insurance profits and it would hardly put a dent in the government waste.

And yet other countries government single-payer systems cover ALL their citizens for $3000/yr, half of our costs.

This is the central fact that you will continue to ignore.

socal2 says

The fraud and incompetence in government run Medicare is 4 times higher than the top 10 biggest insurance company’s profits alone! How about we “wring the fraud and waste” out of government before going after private sector profits or raising taxes?

So why DON'T the Teabaggers go after MediCare and particularly Defense? I can tell you from working in aerospace it's worse over there.

Why? really? Because they actually only care about waste when it's useful to an agenda and party power. Eliminating waste if it were to hurt say, a well-funded program in my state? Forget it. As many have pointed out the proposed ridiculous nonsense like "no earmarks" is PRECISELY because the Teabag reps want to be seen doing something, without actually really doing anything.

For some of them like Rand Paul it's patently obvious. He was all about cutting MediCare until it became obvious to him it would hurt his income, then he did a 180-degree turn and said how it was ESSENTIAL and that doctors "deserve to make a good living".

They know better, that if they eviscerated Defense and MediCare in their home states, they'd be out on their asses in 10 seconds flat.

Tell your Tea Party folks to give an across the board X% reduction of Defense and MediCare, without idiotic noodling in cutting some specific 5-million here and there. DO you really take the time to go after this or that excess? Of course not, you tell underling they are getting a 10% cut but still have to do the same job or better, and you let them figure out how to "find new efficiencies". Then actually achieve that and get back to us. Until then the charge stands and it's absolutely correct. Teabaggers are full of crap.

duxbury001 says

http://seoblackhat.com/2008/12/09/4th-illinois-governor-in-35-years-headed-to-prison/
with blago… 4 out of 5.
an illinios republican is a de facto democrat. illinois, like new york, detroit, cali… is just a progressive gangster state.
Government spending is just a criminal enterprise that cannot be contained and voters want their free lunch. Our only hope is the tea party against the big spending corrupt politicians. Politicians get payola back on every dollar of gov’t spending and handouts are a narcotic. The intellectuals are psychotic and self-destructive. We are finished and breakfast for China barring a tea party revolution.

OK.. Here are the last 5 governors of Illinois:

Pat Quinn---currently in office.
Rod Blagojevich--convicted on 1 count, not currently in jail
George Ryan-- currently in jail
Jim Edgar-- Never on trial
"Big" Jim Thompson-- Never on trial.

Not sure how you get 4 of 5. Even if you don't include Quinn, you've still got Edgar and Thompson...

socal2 says

Dude - did you see the GAO report I linked? The fraud and incompetence in government run Medicare is 4 times higher than the top 10 biggest insurance company’s profits alone

Dude, it looks an awful lot like you're intentionally cooking up some numbers to make it sound worse than it is. Funny how you chose to compare to a small slice of total health care spending - insurance company profits are just 3% of private health insurance costs. BTW, the fraud is just as rampant with private insurers, and exceeds the profits of the insurers.

Still, it is bad. Thankfully the Obama Justice Department has made this a priority.

A health-care crime sweep Thursday netted 114 defendants on charges related to Medicare fraud, in what Attorney General Eric Holder called the largest such takedown in U.S. history.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657704576150293189313156.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird

Vicente says

Seems a lot of “low comment” number posters popping up these days, delivering broadsides of Fox News talking points.

Yes, and one of them the other day was accusing me (and also Patrick) of being on the payroll of some, I don't know, liberal cabal. Hmmmm. I think the exact accusation was that I was being payed to shoot down fine logical objective "conservative" opinions of RayAmerica.

bob2356 says

What’s an SCM?

Supply Chain Management.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_Chain_Management

bob2356 says

So are you saying that the “manufacturing” numbers include a lot of parts manufactured in other countries then just assembled here?

A typical company like HP, Juniper or any other tech company contracts its mfg overseas. Since half of your sales come from overseas customers, your production and final sales stay mainly offshore.

There is no point assembling your final product in the USA to reship elsewhere. ie.. Asia to US back to Asia or Europe. From the Asia factory shipped to final Asian, European, or American customers. Production and inventories on HP books goes up, but not all inventory hits our shores, unless sold to final US domestic customer.

I am surprised that I can still find a job in US because 100% are made in China.
Even a video game DVD or music CD are made in China.

On one hand, the oil price goes through the roof.
On the other hand, people ship back and forth between China and US. That is across the half global!!!!

bumping up just for investment ideas. if anyone has any symbols that they think will do well and have done well for them please post.

has anybody checked out VALE. Biggest mining company and with solid financials, moat and growth.
I am expecting the market to go sideway for a while with high volatility and then eventually go up.
US stocks look promising. looks like other countries are running out of steam.

note : this is my opinion not investment advice.follow at your own risk.

I could'nt help myself from remembering Nomograph from this -

Rents are outrageously high in La Jolla. Greedy or spoiled landlords have been reluctant to lower rents, As a result, many "for rent" or "for lease" signs are going up in La Jolla. Businesses that have been here for decades are suddenly closing shop.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell030111.html

marcus says

Yes, and one of them the other day was accusing me (and also Patrick) of being on the payroll of some, I don’t know, liberal cabal. Hmmmm. I think the exact accusation was that I was being payed to shoot down fine logical objective “conservative” opinions of RayAmerica.

I should join me one of them "liberal cabals". Does it pay well? I could be down with the whole evil empire thing. I always like "mirror Spock" better, he had the cool goatee going, and he knew how to use an agonizer on underlings who didn't perform.

Astonishing that the few minutes spent here and there on a forum over.... hmmm too many years can get that idea in someone's head. Guess this has turned into Cheers hasn't it. Shrek has adopted the role of Cliff Claven. Patrick is either Coach or Sam, I can't decide.

I believe government spending is counted as part of GDP. So even if the government takes all your money, as long as they turn around and buy pencils for bureaucrats and new cars and such, the tax/GDP representation will not reflect the full effect. In fact wouldn't the graph be the same if 25% of the population were enslaved to the government by 100% taxation and the government comprised the remaining part of the economy, buying and selling w/o taxation?

Not entirely sure on this, but its a reasonable hypothesis to explain the flat line on the graph in light of the massive role the govt is playing in the economy.

Or perhaps its the deficit financing that's keeping it flat and the trillion the chinese haven't asked us to pay back yet.

Y'all Teabaggers need to just chill the fark out. Have a Cheeto.

patientrenter says

I could’nt help myself from remembering Nomograph from this -
Rents are outrageously high in La Jolla. Greedy or spoiled landlords have been reluctant to lower rents, As a result, many “for rent” or “for lease” signs are going up in La Jolla. Businesses that have been here for decades are suddenly closing shop.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell030111.html

Looks like APOCALYPSE from this forum wrote that.

duxbury001 says

The primary challenge confronting the West is thugocracy.

I think people like you are much bigger challenge. People that called themselves Conservatives used to include honesty among their virtues. But now sadly a huge swath of them, clearly including you given your posts here, are completely comfortable with listening to and repeating lies.

Ahh, good times.

I say that I and other liberals or liberal libertarians around here are the new true conservative. The republicanss are far too influenced by extremist loons. I am not kidding. I consider myself a conservative. I would like to see the America I have known and loved, preserved.

Yo, dimwitted republitards (like Duxbury); read everything this guy posts if you wish to better yourself.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Y'okay... america is not from the 1950's where we lead the world. Today we hold the honor of being the most corrupt western nation... more similar to southern italy (dominated by the mafioso). We are 21st in the world in corruption... like a piss ant african dictatorship. More corrupt states like illinois, cali, new york (thugocracies run by an alliance of trial lawyers / public sector unions) trump Egypt. You can't compare Denmark to the USA because we are a kleptocracy in comparison.

So the whole country is embroiled in a labor racket / kickback scam where grossly overpaid public employees give money back to their union, who funnels it back to the democracts. That's the racket that's driving so many unionized states to bankruptcy.

Then you've got the trial lawyers (#1 contributors to the dems)... basically a shakedown racket where lawyers get 30%++ of settled cases. Then they kick back to the dems like "giving back to pauly" in goodfellas.. where the dems pick judges that give the most to lawyers. The trial bar is so powerful the republicans don't even bother taking them on.... like entitlemants.. you can only do so much with a psychotic liberal elite / media and a narcisstic population on their somma of easy sex, entitlements, public school indocrination.. they don't even realize that the government just saddled them with $15 trillion in debt (stolen from future generations) and don't even care.

duxbury001 says

So the whole country is embroiled in a labor racket / kickback scam where grossly overpaid public employees give money back to their union, who funnels it back to the democracts. That’s the racket that’s driving so many unionized states to bankruptcy

Keen insights.

We need to get to where workers are totally unrepresented by politicians. Even though corporations are now "citizens" who can totally rig any election with their vast resources that dwarf any union, you say that the workers need less political representation. MAybe you're right. Let's give the corporatocracy complete 100% control. Because after all none of the corruption you speak of comes from there.

You say total outright fascism is the only answer, and you support that with extreme trollish exaggeration. Hard to argue with that.

SF ace says

I’m pretty sure Thomas is wong on this one. Better check the facts yourself.

Where does one do that? Everyone here seems to "know" how the process works, but can't say where and how they get their knowledge from or provide any numbers other than nono's survey.

So if value is counted at each step of the process then what is the value of the final assembly if you use 50% domestic 50% imported parts? Do you only count the value added of the domestic parts? I don't believe the perpetual cheerleaders in Washington would miss the opportunity to pile on feel good numbers wherever possible.

John Bailo says

This Recovery is all about the basics:
Wages on the lowest end are rising

Manufacturing Growing

Jobs returning to the US
Labor shortages are just around the corner driving up the long beleaguered lower third….

I guess demand for illegal mexicans will be high, very soon.

Vicente says

Who’s the Tea Party idol?

The sort of clown who thinks it’s perfectly reasonable to espouse voting rights be restricted to property owners only.

I'm fairly certain I went to high school with that guy. Classroom conversations amongst my fellow students consisted of such great topics as:

Best Way To Lynch A N----
Best Way To Truck Drag A N----
I'm Drunk, Let's Go Find A N----

and they loved the ever popular school sponsored event:

Beat A N---- Day

Our PE teachers and coaches were enthusiastic promotors as it was rumored one of the schools in our league had a black student. Never confirmed, though.

SF ace says

As far as manufacturing, the US were selling 10M-11M vehicle during the recession in 2009, 2010 even with cash for clunkers, 2011 and 2012 are projected to be in the 14.5 and 16M respectively. That’s 25+% increase in units that spiils over to a very important manufacturing industry from steel fabricator, to component fabricator to assembly. growth rate is not surprising.
That is why Obama did the right thing in bailing out the auto industry.

god americans are stupid and lazy....!.......do a little research on dealer inventory. i am not going to train your ass by explaining why or how 'car sales' have increased. anyone that bases their financial decisions on headline news deserves to lose their ass. do some research and learn what the surveys and polls and reports that are trotted out by the gov or NAR mean and how they are calculated.....or dont and live in ignorant bliss....and wait for your place in the poor house.

John Bailo says

This Recovery is all about the basics:
Wages on the lowest end are rising

Manufacturing Growing

Jobs returning to the US
Labor shortages are just around the corner driving up the long beleaguered lower third….

name 50 items in your house that are made in america.......

dipsh*t - GM is pushing cars to the dealers that are sitting on them...they arent 'selling' anything.

like i said before....learn or fail. what i say isnt important...what you learn and act on is....dont do the research and lose your ass and live in a hole!

...go look up the manufacturer numbers...then look at inventories and then look at dealer sales...or dont!

709hannah says

dipsh*t - GM is pushing cars to the dealers that are sitting on them…they arent ’selling’ anything.
like i said before….learn or fail. what i say isnt important…what you learn and act on is….dont do the research and lose your ass and live in a hole!
…go look up the manufacturer numbers…then look at inventories and then look at dealer sales…or dont!

Hannah--

Some free advice for you. How about you actually post some data? Where did you do your research? Please post the dealer sales numbers. I'm curious too.

You said they were full of crap, though your graph clearly never goes over 20%. 20% full of shit is pretty good. Obama has never been lower than 65% on the FOS scale.
If you can proof "Full of Shit" on a scale, good enough to make an accurate chart.
Then it would make politics obsolete.

go to the GM website/investor and start digging thru all the releases......

http://www.gm.com/investors/sales-production/

( or download the pdf http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2011/FebruarySales.pdf)

""Month-end dealer inventory in the United States stood at about 517,000 units, which is about 7,000 higher compared to January and about 101,000 higher than February 2010.""

so go thru all the past releases and look at the month-end inventory numbers:

517,000 feb11
510,000 jan11
511,000 dec10
536,000
515,000
478,000
452,000
.
.
.
.
385,000 dec09

...channel stuffing....obama pushing tax payer bailouts to GM and the unions.

now you do this research:

next question is.....how much of the actual real sales were to the government? i wouldnt consider my tax money buying cars for the gov a positive......?

next question is GM financing and rebates...how much does GM make on each car? are we giving away 'subprime' loans to sell cars just like we did in the housing bubble?

next do a little research on high frequency trading (HFT) and how taxpayer money is used to pump the GM ipo share price.......

next question is where do the dealers get the credit to 'buy' there inventory...?.....maybe the us taxpayer....?

last question....who is/will be buying almost the entire production run of the volt....?

we are not in an economic recovery. we are in a credit bubble powered by QE and the fed..................

marcus says

Let’s give the corporatocracy complete 100% control. ....
You say total outright fascism is the only answer,

I can't believe I'm defending duxbury, but you're presenting a false choice. Corporations and public employee unions can and do both have inappropriate influence that goes against the interests of the public at large.

Were do I start.... Stalin would smile at how america employs indoctrination to make socialists. You make him proud.
>>

If you want to blame US government housing policy for the housing bubble, you MUST explain how that also caused a bubble in commercial real estate, and a housing bubble in many other countries. All at exactly the same time.
>>>

The housing bubble is worse here other than countries like Ireland and the CRE bubble hasn't imploded consumers in the same way. Many other countries have similar braindead policies that encourage home ownership and thereby inflate housing prices.

Other idiot

I can’t believe I’m defending duxbury, but you’re presenting a false choice. Corporations and public employee unions can and do both have inappropriate influence that goes against the interests of the public at large.
>>>>

The reason we are a commerical republic, set forth by Ben Franklin, is that companies have competing interests. So safe to put power in the hands of individuals and private sector.

Putting power in the hands of gov't and extortionist unions just turns a commercial republic into a gangster state dominated by crony companies (GE, goldman), unions, trial lawyers.

"progressive" politics is just running interference to rationalize thugocracy. "liberal" politicians care amout millionaire gov't employees with absurd pensions and trial lawyers. The common citizen liberal is just what lenin called a "useful idiot"... supporting tyranny with his silly political fantasies about a benighted progressive elite.

I know how much you like your liberal fantasies... but kids really aren't in coal mines anymore. The issue isn't "kids in coal mines"... the issue is should teachers cost $100/hour and never be fired even if they sleep with students or should they be paid $25/hour.

Lots of states and countries don't have unions (japan and nazi germany). what both countries have in common is that their economic growth was so strong that they imploded (nazi's starting wwII because they rightfully viewed western powers as idiotic with crippled economies and japan had such growth it created a property bubble). So if we abolished unions we would have huge prosperity because a large criminal element in society would be eliminated.

Strong government intervention in corporate affairs combined with strong unions is what we had from 1946 until Reagan wrecked the country. It’s considered the golden age of American prestige and power.
>>>>

yea well half the world's industrial capacity was destroyed in WWII. Also, unions weren't strong enough to obliterate industries for fun as they do now. Factories shut down all over the place because unions will not budge on extortionist wages. GM lawnmowers were getting $70/hour. Unions hadn't yet destroyed the steel industries and the airlines. Janitors in NY get 100k+pension+ they can sleep and watch porn all day and will never get fired.

We just have differing views of thugocracy. You support a series of extortion rackets and schemes with a progressive veneer. I think it is bankrupting the country.

you sound like a victim of brainwashing. sorry.

Funny you mention Germany... go Angela!!! They are confronting thugocracy and multiculturalism... imagine that? They are cutting the budgets and not letting people pour into the country who hate it. What Bastards!! Don't they know the modern West is about sanctimonious suicidal behavior! How dare they care about being responsible. Thankfully people like you can encourage them into reckless and self-destructive behavior.

>>>
ssistance just to eat. A Nasdaq bubble made people rich then wiped out retirees. A housing bubble made people rich then wiped out retirees. Banks loaned money to people without jobs because the unregulated free market let Wall Street steal money.
>>>>

The repeated bubbles are caused by easy money policies by the Fed. The fed has been giving money away for 20 some odd years at reduced rates and it creates asset bubbles. Plus deficit spending. Thanks gov't.

Troy says

The internet is packed with them, you can hardly go anywhere anymore without them and their stupid arguments monopolizing the discussion.

Exhibit A:

Kanda Bongo Man says

Funny that Troy, from Bellingham WA, is such a devout Marxist.
You realize, Mr. Troy, that if you shared your Marxist fantasies with your neighbors in Bellingham, you’d end up with a shotgun sticking straight up your ass?
Better stick to Seattle if you want a place that’s safe for your anti-freedom views. If you’re feeling like you don’t have any room to share your Marxist bullshit online, that’s good. It’s about time something good began happening in the world, for a change.

Marxist, moi? Is this guy for real? Then again, the name might give away the game.

Part of the problem with trying to actually engage with internet glibertarians is that they just make no sense. Honest Abe and the rest, all just jingo-slinging morons with authoritarian streaks a mile wide.

They couch their "freedom" jive in economics terms, but with the wealth divide the way it is now, there'd be precious little freedom for anyone should libertopia start breaking out here.

http://sethf.com/essays/major/libstupid.php

Hannah-

Following your link, I find the following quotes:

"During the month, retail sales rose 70 percent – the highest year-over-year gain in the company’s history."

and

"...the company’s retail sales – those to individual consumers – have increased by 52 percent."

A rise in dealer inventory would be expected as sales increase. That's pretty normal.

As to profitability, GM had a net income of $4.7 billion for the calendar year. Seems like they are doing OK profit wise.

Fleet sales were up only 2%, so I wouldn't attribute their good year to the government buying.

Finally, who cares about the high frequency trading--if the company is profitable, the share price will take care of itself.

As to your last statement, we'll see, but I dont' see much evidence that you are correct.

Troy says

duxbury is just your typical maximal freedom glibertarian cheap-labor conservative.

Ray or Ray's clone.
duxbury001 says

I know how much you like your liberal fantasies… but kids really aren’t in coal mines anymore. The issue isn’t “kids in coal mines”… the issue is should teachers cost $100/hour and never be fired even if they sleep with students or should they be paid $25/hour.

duxbury001 says

Unions hadn’t yet destroyed the steel industries and the airlines. Janitors in NY get 100k+pension+ they can sleep and watch porn all day and will never get fired.

Hyperbolic trolling if I've ever heard it.

Sure unions go too far sometimes, and then the pendulum swings back. There are hardly any unions left now, and the big ones that are still there are nearly impotent. But criminal ? wtf is this loon talking about. Teachers sleeping with students gets them prison. But yes the rumor of it might be hard to get fired for. Then again it's nice to know that some seriously dysfunctional child can't get you fired just for an accusation. Hey, that protection is nice considering I might even have to fail some students.

If teachers make 100K/per hour it's pretty amazing that they haven't been able to fill all the teaching jobs, until recently.

You want teachers to be pad $25/hr. Okay, right. As it is, most quit before they get to 5 years, because they can't handle it, and they aren't doing well. I don't have to tell everyone that this troll has absolutely no idea what is involved in teaching.

duxbury001 says

The housing bubble is worse here other than countries like Ireland and the CRE bubble hasn’t imploded consumers in the same way. Many other countries have similar braindead policies that encourage home ownership and thereby inflate housing prices.

Other idiot

Did you even look at the chart? The bubbles happened at exactly the same time! And it's not even true that these other countries had policies promoting home ownership. You just made that up! Not surprising given all the other stuff you've simply made up.

MarkInSF says

countries had policies promoting home ownership

the bubble had nothing to do with "policies promoting home ownership" and everything to do with ideologues and industry insiders in government working to make the housing market "free" of government policing and enforcement and/or tightening up of regulations, 2002-2005:

"In the summer of 2003, leaders of the four federal agencies that oversee the banking industry gathered to highlight the Bush administration's commitment to reducing regulation."

http://dorkmonger.blogspot.com/2008/11/cutting-red-tape.html

In late 2009 California finally banned negative-amortization and loans with greater than 2% prepayment penalties, both of which were abused as "affordability" mechanisms that only served to temporarily increase a borrower's buying power, either with very low "pay option" or "teaser" rates that reset in 2 or 5 years.

The housing bubble utterly destroyed the myths that "free enterprise" when left to its own devices is anything but a vast collection of crimogenic forces.

Same shit happened with the S&L crisis, but we as a nation apparently have the memory of gnats.

MarkInSF says

I can’t believe I’m defending duxbury, but you’re presenting a false choice. Corporations and public employee unions can and do both have inappropriate influence that goes against the interests of the public at large.

You're right, it is a false choice, because at this point unions are so beaten down and powerless (and have been for decades), that they are no longer a check against corporate exploitation of workers.

I was being a little hyperbolic in making the point about corporate power, not that my teachers union affects corporations one way or the other the slightest. But you are wrong about unions working against the interests of the people.