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Meltdown in Japan??? Fallout here???


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2011 Mar 12, 12:39pm   22,868 views  255 comments

by terriDeaner   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

As of right now, there seems to be some uncertainty as to whether meltdowns (yes, multiple) are underway at the failing nuclear facility in Japan. If there is a widespread release of radioactive particulates, is there any good way of knowing if any (and how much) would blow our way?

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/12/japan.quake/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stratfor-japan-government-confirms-meltdown

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/world/asia/13nuclear.html?hp

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89   Â¥   2011 Mar 15, 4:16am  

Uranium isn't the problem, Cesium and Plutonium (in unit #3 and the spent fuel rods) are.

90   Vicente   2011 Mar 15, 4:47am  

It's an interesting question, but I see bioaccumulation as more of a problem if you are eating fish from Japan. We have lost atomic bombs in the sea before. However it looks Japan's neighbors are already planning to screen foodstuffs:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/radiation-scare-prompts-asian-countries-to-screen-imports-of-japanese-food.html

91   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 4:48am  

Vicente says

It’s an interesting question, but I see bioaccumulation as more of a problem if you are eating fish from Japan. We have lost atomic bombs in the sea before. However it looks Japan’s neighbors are already planning to screen seafood:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/radiation-scare-prompts-asian-countries-to-screen-imports-of-japanese-food.html

It is an unfortunate step in the right direction.

And I am unaware that any of the lost bombs ruptured and spilled material.

And And, it really depends on how far the particulates, pre-eaten or not, travel.

93   tatupu70   2011 Mar 15, 5:04am  

Troy says

No, radiation is not radiation.
#5 and #6 spent fuel storage tanks failing and causing some VERY nasty shit to burn itself up in an uncontrolled conflagration would emit literally tons of radioactive particulates into the atmosphere.

Actually it is. It doesn't matter if it's Cs-137, Am-241, or U-238. What matters is the activity, and dose equivilent.

94   tatupu70   2011 Mar 15, 5:11am  

terriDeaner says

My point is that if your body accumulates and holds onto biologically active radioisotopes, you will receive a CUMULATIVE DOSE that will put you at far greater risk of health problems. Sure, the type of radiation will affect the cumulative dose to some degree, but since it is coming from INSIDE your body, no amount of foil hat therapy or soapy washes will fix the problem.

Yes, if you ingest radioactive Cs-137 that will cause some serious problems. Although the biological half-life of Cs is 140 days. Its effect will deteriorate over time.

But my point is that ingesting Cs-137 is more of a poisoning problem than a radiation problem.

95   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 5:14am  

tatupu70 says

Actually it is. It doesn’t matter if it’s Cs-137, Am-241, or U-238. What matters is the activity, and dose equivilent.

Still wrong. Please just go back and read some of the reference material I provided...

96   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 5:19am  

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

My point is that if your body accumulates and holds onto biologically active radioisotopes, you will receive a CUMULATIVE DOSE that will put you at far greater risk of health problems. Sure, the type of radiation will affect the cumulative dose to some degree, but since it is coming from INSIDE your body, no amount of foil hat therapy or soapy washes will fix the problem.

Yes, if you ingest radioactive Cs-137 that will cause some serious problems. Although the biological half-life of Cs is 140 days. Its effect will deteriorate over time.
But my point is that ingesting Cs-137 is more of a poisoning problem than a radiation problem.

Please pay particular attention to the manner in which the dose is administered. Yes, the toxicity may be a competing issue with an ACUTE (read large) dose of cesium. However, even with very poisonous stuff, LOW DOSES OVER TIME may allow the accumulation of levels in excess of ACUTELY lethal toxic doses. It is this EXCESSIVE ACCUMULATION over time that is the concern with trace radioisotopes with LONG HALF-LIVES.

97   tatupu70   2011 Mar 15, 5:23am  

terriDeaner says

It is this EXCESSIVE ACCUMULATION over time that is the concern with trace radioisotopes with LONG HALF-LIVES.

You have to consider both the source half life and the biological half life of a radioisotope. For Cs-137, the biological half life is only 140 days. But I agree that if you are continuously eating small doses of Cs-137, you are in for some trouble.

98   tatupu70   2011 Mar 15, 5:24am  

terriDeaner says

tatupu70 says


Actually it is. It doesn’t matter if it’s Cs-137, Am-241, or U-238. What matters is the activity, and dose equivilent.

Still wrong. Please just go back and read some of the reference material I provided…

How about you just give me the quick explanation for why you think I'm wrong?

99   Vicente   2011 Mar 15, 5:39am  

terriDeaner says

And I am unaware that any of the lost bombs ruptured and spilled material.

Well I don't know what scale we are hypothesizing here. However there's an extensive list of nuclear accidents, some of them more scary for the fact they were covered up at the time. Example Hanford site along the Columbia River had incidents between 1946 and 1986 and terrible as that is that they did so without TELLING ANYONE..... where Japan incident is clearly quite public. I expect if something gets contaminated we'll know about it and be able to avoid it. And I'm pretty sure the Japanese will be making stern public efforts to clean it up, not cover it up.

100   zzyzzx   2011 Mar 15, 5:56am  

American in Japan says

@zzyzzx
“Besides that, the Japanese are accustomed to earthquakes, tsunami’s, and getting nuked; they’ll be fine.”
I agree with the first two but not the third…
Did you really work at a nuclear power plant?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Browns_Ferry_Nuclear_Power_Plant

101   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 5:57am  

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

It is this EXCESSIVE ACCUMULATION over time that is the concern with trace radioisotopes with LONG HALF-LIVES.

You have to consider both the source half life and the biological half life of a radioisotope. For Cs-137, the biological half life is only 140 days. But I agree that if you are continuously eating small doses of Cs-137, you are in for some trouble.

Ah, now we're getting somewhere. Now try to calculate the estimated TOTAL EXPOSURE from each different isotope given the biological half-life (reference?) for a range of exposures (amount consumed). Assume a fixed period of time (say 1 year) and a fixed rate of consumption over that time (less than toxically lethal dose, assume the contaminants are not being cleaned from the environment, and assume negligible decay in the environment due to the long half-lives of the radioisotopes (e.g. ~30 years)).

102   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 5:58am  

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

tatupu70 says

Actually it is. It doesn’t matter if it’s Cs-137, Am-241, or U-238. What matters is the activity, and dose equivilent.

There's no substitute for real research, but see the suggested calculation above.

Still wrong. Please just go back and read some of the reference material I provided…

How about you just give me the quick explanation for why you think I’m wrong?

There's no substitute for real research, but see the suggested calculation above.

103   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 6:00am  

Vicente says

Well I don’t know what scale we are hypothesizing here. However there’s an extensive list of nuclear accidents, some of them more scary for the fact they were covered up at the time. Example Hanford site along the Columbia River had incidents between 1946 and 1986 and terrible as that is that they did so without TELLING ANYONE….. where Japan incident is clearly quite public. I expect if something gets contaminated we’ll know about it and be able to avoid it. And I’m pretty sure the Japanese will be making stern public efforts to clean it up, not cover it up.

I agree, I don't think they will have much choice in the matter. However, I would guess that the information will be rather after-the-fact if they can possibly swing it.

104   zzyzzx   2011 Mar 15, 6:00am  

Troy says

zzyzzx says
as long as the can pump in seawater until they get the regular systems working, they’ll be fine.
Actually, no. Since they’ve allowed 2 or 3 cores to partially melt down, the reactor water is now polluted and venting the steam from these units will introduce more radioactive crap outside the plant.

That's not my point. Some radiation has already leaked out and wll continute to do so. The object is preventing a Chernobyl style disaster. Melt downs that get contained are merely an expensive mess to clean up and aren't anything we need to be concerned about.

105   tatupu70   2011 Mar 15, 6:10am  

terriDeaner says

tatupu70 says


terriDeaner says

tatupu70 says

Actually it is. It doesn’t matter if it’s Cs-137, Am-241, or U-238. What matters is the activity, and dose equivilent.

There’s no substitute for real research, but see the suggested calculation above.
Still wrong. Please just go back and read some of the reference material I provided…

How about you just give me the quick explanation for why you think I’m wrong?

There’s no substitute for real research, but see the suggested calculation above.

So, you can't tell me then?

106   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 6:16am  

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

tatupu70 says

Actually it is. It doesn’t matter if it’s Cs-137, Am-241, or U-238. What matters is the activity, and dose equivilent.

There’s no substitute for real research, but see the suggested calculation above.

Still wrong. Please just go back and read some of the reference material I provided…

How about you just give me the quick explanation for why you think I’m wrong?

There’s no substitute for real research, but see the suggested calculation above.

So, you can’t tell me then?

I have tried to explain this several times, and spent a bit of my time doing it. If you are not willing to read and use the information provided you will not understand my point. YOU will have to invest some of your own effort. I have no more time for further spoon-feeding on this material.

And how did that misquote get nested into the middle?

107   tatupu70   2011 Mar 15, 6:24am  

terriDeaner says

I have tried to explain this several times, and spent a bit of my time doing it. If you are not willing to read and use the information provided you will not understand my point. YOU will have to invest some of your own effort. I have no more time for further spoon-feeding on this material.

I'm sorry--you haven't really explained anything. From what I can gather you are worried about radioactive particles, not radiation. Those are two different things. I don't really know how the particles will disperse or how far they will travel once they are in the air. It depends on the wind I guess.

108   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 6:27am  

tatupu70 says

From what I can gather you are worried about radioactive particles, not radiation. Those are two different things.

???

You do realize that radioactive particles EMIT radiation, right?

109   pkennedy   2011 Mar 15, 6:41am  

@terriDeaner

Actually you've give nothing. Everyone else has provided clear examples and explanations.

You used fusion instead of fission, showing you clearly don't have an in depth understanding of this information, because anyone with anything beyond Fox or CNN news as their sole source of information wouldn't make that mistake. It's akin to all of us talking about flying and you start talking about lift in water, and us needing to correct you that water and air are not the same thing. It's not a small slip up in this industry, it's as embarrassing as getting confused between air and water while discussing planes.

110   ch_tah   2011 Mar 15, 6:45am  

terriDeaner,
Are there certain steps you plan on taking based on what you learn here? This is a very interesting theoretical discussion, although I think it seems selfish to worry about the US over Japan at this point, but even if the ultimate conclusion was some radiation or whatever could come to the US, what are you going to do? All I can figure is avoiding fish from Japan. What else is there to do?

111   American in Japan   2011 Mar 15, 6:50am  

@zzyzzx

Thanks for the link.

112   pkennedy   2011 Mar 15, 8:30am  

Btw, here is probably the best explanation, although some are saying this might be debunked elsewhere. MIT has a bunch of explanations for each of the events that took place.

http://mitnse.com/2011/03/15/explanation-of-hydrogen-explosions-at-units-1-and-3/

113   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 8:34am  

pkennedy says

@terriDeaner
Actually you’ve give nothing. Everyone else has provided clear examples and explanations.
You used fusion instead of fission, showing you clearly don’t have an in depth understanding of this information, because anyone with anything beyond Fox or CNN news as their sole source of information wouldn’t make that mistake. It’s akin to all of us talking about flying and you start talking about lift in water, and us needing to correct you that water and air are not the same thing. It’s not a small slip up in this industry, it’s as embarrassing as getting confused between air and water while discussing planes.

Sorry pal, everyone makes mistakes, even me. And I don't think typo's are that big of a deal, particularly when they are corrected quickly.

You seem to be implying that my mistake was conceptual. I assure you, it was not. Please note that "fission" and "fusion" look and are spelled very similarly, and when you're typing quickly one may be mistakenly substituted for the other.

I'm sure you'll understand, given your eloquent writing sample above. With such amazing flow, it exhibits an exceptional level of grammar usage, and impeccable spelling througout!

114   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 8:46am  

ch_tah says

terriDeaner,

Are there certain steps you plan on taking based on what you learn here? This is a very interesting theoretical discussion, although I think it seems selfish to worry about the US over Japan at this point, but even if the ultimate conclusion was some radiation or whatever could come to the US, what are you going to do? All I can figure is avoiding fish from Japan. What else is there to do?

I'm not sure - avoid the beaches in the spring and summer until some testing has been done, probably. Not eat fish from the western Pacific, or migratory ones that swim through there. Keep the earthquake emergency kit up to date. Keep looking for results from local monitoring stations (haven't found any web-based results yet).

Another precaution is stocking up on potassium iodine. I picked up this link from another thread in this forum:

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Surgeon-General-Buying-Iodine-Appropriate-118031559.html

For now there is nothing much else to do but wait for more news. Even if there was a worst case, serious particulate discharge high into the atmosphere (AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO) it would probably take a while (days-weeks) for any of it to get here anyhow.

115   Â¥   2011 Mar 15, 9:05am  

pkennedy says

here is probably the best explanation, although some are saying this might be debunked elsewhere

That guy was talking out of his ass which should be clear by now, maximizing and fabricating the good things and trying to minimize the bad things. But as Feynman said, Mother Nature cannot be fooled.

The guy was so clueless he was talking about refurbishing the plant and returning it to operation.

I found his original remarks that people exposed to the venting should quit smoking to compensate to be pretty fucking offensive, though the MIT students have removed that particular idiocy from the original.

Whether the nuclear engineering students have anything intelligent to add to this discussion remain to be seen.

They have yet to explore the implications of having the secondary pressure vessel in unit 2 breached. This is bad news if they have to vent more steam from unit 2 -- its core is partially melted down so any steam coming from the reactor pressure vessel is going to be highly radioactive.

116   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 9:13am  

Troy says

That guy was talking out of his ass which should be clear by now, maximizing and fabricating the good things and trying to minimize the bad things. But as Feynman said, Mother Nature cannot be fooled.

This is why it is always best to read critically (previously typed sarcasm removed...).

117   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 9:39am  

And now bad news:

New fire hits Japan nuclear plant

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12754883

#4 reactor is on fire again.

118   Â¥   2011 Mar 15, 10:04am  

The situation with #4 is not clear now. Smoke was noted at 5:45AM but NHK said it was gone later.

119   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 11:45am  

Still no clear info on this.

120   bob2356   2011 Mar 15, 11:55am  

terriDeaner says

Do you understand that if you ingest trace amounts of radioactive cesium or strontium it will accumulate over time in your body, replacing normal elements like potassium and calcium? Imagine the blood cancer risk resultant from having a radioactive skeleton. And the problem is compounded by bioaccumulation through the food chain. This means that low levels of radioactive dust over grass gets concentrated by cows eating the grass, and further concentrated in humans eating the cows.

Trace amounts of cs will not accumulate in your body. It passes out through the urine and feces. You ingest and pass out non radioactive cs all the time. It's naturally occurring and is all around us. Radioactive cs does exactly the same thing. Much larger amounts than trace are needed to accumulate. It's just not possible for those levels of concentrations of cs to drift 6000 miles short of a nuclear war.

You keep comparing Chernobyl with the Japanese plants. Chernobyl didn't have a containment building. The explosan simply tossed the roof of the reactor. Over 200 tons of material thrown high into the air. Most of it landed on the nearby scandenavian countries where is was absorbed by the environment and passed up the food chain to some degree. There is a world of difference between several hundred miles and over 6000 miles.

None of this matters since you keep coming back to the same tired argument that all radiation is the same and any trace amount is harmful. Pure hokum.

121   Â¥   2011 Mar 15, 12:06pm  

bob2356 says

Chernobyl didn’t have a containment building.

Maybe you haven't been keeping up with current events, but neither do 2 out of the 3 Fukushima 1 scrammed reactors.

One other problem is that there are thousands of nuclear rods sitting in cooling pools at the upper levels of all 6 power plants.

One reactor is currently emitting steam or white smoke at this time. If this is reactor 2 this is steam directly from the core, which has been 30% damaged due to loosing all coolant for several hours.

122   Â¥   2011 Mar 15, 12:47pm  

Turns out the "smoking" reactor is Unit 3.

The one fueled with 5% plutonium.

123   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 12:51pm  

Not good.

124   Â¥   2011 Mar 15, 1:22pm  

Live update from TEPCO now.

Workers have suspended operations in the facility, waiting for the somewhat elevated radiation levels to abate (~6 millisieverts at the main gate, probably much higher at the control facility).

TEPCO says maybe no water in #4 spent fuel pool.

Cores could have melted in the empty cooling pool.

Could be a likely scenario.

TEPCO wants to inject water as quickly as possible.

No shield in #4 fuel left. Workers cannot approach.

125   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 1:24pm  

From bbc asia-pacific:

0320: Staff have now been evacuated from Fukushima because of a spike in radiation levels, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told a news conference.

What is going on?

126   Â¥   2011 Mar 15, 1:25pm  

Things are going out of control. Now being interrupted by emergency earthquake warning for Ibaraki.

127   Vicente   2011 Mar 15, 1:26pm  

I'm not really up on this sort of thing, but Japan being the land of robots and all.... don't they have views of what's going on inside? I mean I would think they could deploy widgets with cameras on them all over the place. Radiation/heat issues?

128   terriDeaner   2011 Mar 15, 1:28pm  

I am also curious why more automated devices were not deployed.

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