patrick.net

shrekgrinch says

It would completely eliminate California income tax and sales tax

Actually, it only cuts the income tax rate. (They engage in a bit of false advertising on this). Later on they admit to it:

(1) State personal income tax: The first $150,000 of each person’s annual income will be exempt.

OK, _my_ state income tax would go to zero, and that's what counts! :-)

terriDeaner says

See? Rational yet not serious

OK--we're now wayyyyyy off topic, but I guess I'll just have to disagree. To me, hoping for an inheritance isn't a rational argument against going to college. Perhaps you weren't being serious, perhaps you were, but in either case it wasn't a rational argument.

LOL! A poet and a warrior! Cant beat that.

MarkInSF says

Thanks to prop 13, a lot things that used to be funded at the local level now has to be funded by the State.

I'm reading the book "After the Tax Revolt: California's Proposition 13 Turns 30". Very interesting point I had not realized: Prop 13 got huge support partly because just before that in 1978, there was another law which sent all property taxes to the state instead of keeping them to fund local schools directly.

So people felt their property taxes were going to other school districts, and therefore not supporting their own property values. They didn't like that at all, so they were suddenly much more opposed to paying property tax.

Another excellent point in the book is that Prop 13 strongly appeals to the elderly, who vote for whatever makes them feel more secure. They also strongly support Social Security for the same feeling of security. It's ironic that Prop 13 is basically Republican tax-cutting, and Social Security is basically Democratic tax-spending, but the elderly support them both out of self-interest.

Shrekgrinch is having an Internet moment. The most obvious way to advertise that one is mis-stating an opponent's position is to "translate" it. If he wants to offer an argument, he can feel free. What he's offered are three strawmen, mounted on poles, and labeled with clear signage. The last is rather shabby and difficult to parse, but I'll credit him three.

Of course, no amount of strenuous fallacy can change the fact that it's incredibly hard to hire quality talent in software in the United States, or that strong developers easily command six-figure compensation packages with even a few years of experience. If outsourcing truly were taking all the jobs, then my (mostly domestic) teams would have no problem staffing our QA positions with desperate and hungry developers, and our dev-teams would be packed with all-stars yearning to prove themselves. As things stand, it's very hard to hire good developers and damn-near impossible to hire a good technical software tester. I've only ever worked with about four truly excellent testers, and I've been extremely lucky to count that many.

It should be no surprise that the most determined effort I've seen in mingling outsourced labor with domestic projects has been with the aim of getting technically competent people testing the product. That's damned hard, and it's inefficient, and it puts unique demands on the domestic QA team, but I suspect it still works better than outsourcing the whole job.

On second thought, maybe Shrekgrinch should stick with fallacy, because reality likely won't admit him even a token logical defense. We need more excellent developers. Telling our kids that they should fear ourtsourcing is bad for the country's competiveness in one of our strongest and most competitive disciplines. Instead, we should be telling them to strive for excellence, and cautioning them that a degree doesn't cut it without hard work and constant effort, but that the rewards are there for those who want them and are willing to put in the effort necessary to hack it.

I have no problem getting a CS degree. But do it as a part time student. Many employers pay for tuition. And of course my favorite: goarmy.com

"Telling our kids that they should fear ourtsourcing is bad for the country’s competiveness is bad"

I don't see any problem telling kids REALITY. Telling them sugar coated nonsense is BAD. Between outsourcing, H1-Bs, and age discrimination, why should anyone pursue a CS degree?

I think he buys in the area he lives in. Bay / Delta, but I could be worng.

I do not know how directly his living wages are tied to rental prices. I am 100% sure he'll answer any question you may have about pretty much anything.

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

See? Rational yet not serious

OK–we’re now wayyyyyy off topic, but I guess I’ll just have to disagree. To me, hoping for an inheritance isn’t a rational argument against going to college. Perhaps you weren’t being serious, perhaps you were, but in either case it wasn’t a rational argument.

Sigh... poor, gentle, tatupu. Please assure me that you will use the dictionary as a stepping-stone to better things in at least SOME part of your life... for instance, as a stool for gathering hard-to-reach foodstuffs from the top of your fridge. You know, where you keep the tastiest of treats.

And one last time for the record... acquiring an inheritance is not an argument against going to college. It is simply an exception I stated to demonstrate that your hard and fast personal rule was not true:

tatupu70 says

It’s impossible to prosper without a job.

Alas!

Be careful about pinpointing a top. Demand for silver in industrial applications unknown only a few years ago is exploding. Read the Silver Institute's numbers on worldwide production as well.

In response to HousingWatcher:

Outsourcing: I've spoken to this. A good developer will never starve. Bad developers? Developers who show up to an interview so stale they can't code up a linked list on the spot? Good riddance to both. (Note those classes don't always overlap, and speak to different but valid concerns about the candidate.) The realilty is that you can be pulling down six figures in your mid-twenties with a decent programming job. People have been sounding the doom-drums of outsourcing since at least 1999, but not much of consequence has changed. Some ditch-digging work went offshore, the big interesting projects stayed here. That's reality, sir. The doom-drums you beat fail to banish the excellent pay of the hundreds of men and women I've been working with as the drums have been droning on and changing little of concern. Young, good American programmers will still be capable of making two median incomes in 2021. It's the margins. They afford a vast premium for quality of craft.

H1-Bs: This program is excellent for the nation, and we should stop thinking of it as some kind of stop-gap. We should embrace our savage brain-draining of Asia as a cornerstone of our international competitiveness strategy. It increases our capability at the expense of our prime competitors'. We should value working with the intellectual cream of six continents, and encourage them to settle and raise their families here; to add their uniqueness to our own; as is our tradition. I, like about thirty percent of most of my teams, am both white and was born in the United States --fourth generation Euromutt-American. If you read the subtext of my advice to my brother above, it was guarded. The message was not "go into CS and you'll make lots of money." It was "if you go into CS, get good at it, and you will do well." We should encourage more domestically grown talent to strive for that, because they do need to strive. The datastructures instruction is as useful as they make it, but neither the paper nor birthright entitles them to anything.

Age discrimination: This is mostly a myth. I've worked with people who've dated theselves well into their sixties or early seventies. Even two non-managers. Excellent technicians, both. There is plenty of discrimination against people who are tired, listless, cynical, with dated skills they can't apply to modern problems. There is no discrimination against old workers who have excellent attitudes, pull their weight, and apply their vast experience while embracing new technologies. Their old-school work ethic is invaluable, and worth refreshing in our culture. The discrimination --such as it is-- isn't against old workers, it's against workers who act old. It's a hazard to be aware of as we age, but doesn't merit the fatalistic treatment applied to it by the doom-droners.

Msilenus, a place I used to work at before outsourced their entire programming department to India, another place where my wife works outsourced their accounting and their IT/Programmers as well. It's happening, just it's not outsourcing as fast as many thought.

I'm not sure how the job market will be for this industry in 10 or 20 years. It looks like it's leaving the country slowly bit at a time.

shrekgrinch says

So, the reaction of the young to avoid CS degrees is a pretty damn rational one given the market signals they are receiving as pertains to the above proven concepts.

ChrisLA says

I’m not sure how the job market will be for this industry in 10 or 20 years. It looks like it’s leaving the country slowly bit at a time.

I came across this chart a while back:

From here: http://www.newgeography.com/content/00607-deconstructing-meltdown-national-job-losses-sector

I don't know much about this site or its politics, so I can't say much about the source data (presumably BLS but not actually indicated). Note, however, the surprising similarity between the trendlines for manufacturing and information. This really struck me.

And the job numbers (seasonally-adjusted) from the same site.

Not quite as jarring, but still not pretty for information, among other sectors.

Some work leaves. Some stays. The new ideas that we come up with --we don't go to India for that. Zuckerberg didn't outsource Facebook. Brin and Page didn't outsource Google. They wouldn't have been richer if they'd tried.

I've never denied that outsourcing has been happening, I'm arguing that it doesn't matter that it is. The reality is that the upper-end of payscales across the software industry is consistently and squarely in the six-figure range, especially in California. [1] The median salaries are all well over the medians for people with college degrees. Note that salary does not include stock, bonus, or ESPP benefits. Outsourcing? Who cares. We can show new grads the money, outsourcing or no, and it would behoove them to heed those market signals. Anyone concerned about outsourcing should be numerate about where we stand with it. Chris, to his credit, admits that it hasn't lived up to the doom-and-gloom, but raises questions about the future. Well, to whatever extent it has hurt the local markets, that impact is decreasing. [2] Cost of labor in India has been on the rise --the global talent pool cuts both ways, and talent commands in any currency. Salaries for the best Indian developers have been rising more than 20% annually of late.

[1] http://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/software-developer-salary-SRCH_KO0,18.htm

[2] http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-salaries-dull-allure-of-offshoring-2011-03-18

Oh, man, now I am REALLY annoyed I sold at around 19.

Interesting points about prop 13, Patrick. I did not know that.

terriDeaner says

Sigh… poor, gentle, tatupu. Please assure me that you will use the dictionary as a stepping-stone to better things in at least SOME part of your life… for instance, as a stool for gathering hard-to-reach foodstuffs from the top of your fridge. You know, where you keep the tastiest of treats.

Such lovely language. I think you missed your calling. I notice you've resorted to the standard attack the person rather than the argument trick. I'll assume that you no longer wish to debate the topic at hand then.. Obviously you have given up. Don't worry--no shame in that.

fyi: from your link: "Consistent with or based on reason; logical". Not going to college because you are hoping you will get an inheritance is NOT logical or based on reason... So, I'm sorry. You're wrong.

terriDeaner says

And one last time for the record… acquiring an inheritance is not an argument against going to college. It is simply an exception I stated to demonstrate that your hard and fast personal rule was not true:

Well, the topic was and is "should young people invest in higher education..." so I apologize for thinking you were arguing about that topic. I'm surprised you didn't bring up the fact that you could win the lottery. Or fall on the ice in front of Wal-Mart and sue them for $1MM. Or marry well. See, I can do it too! Am I as clever as you?

Bap33 says

I think he buys in the area he lives in. Bay / Delta, but I could be worng.
I do not know how directly his living wages are tied to rental prices. I am 100% sure he’ll answer any question you may have about pretty much anything.

LOL that anyone places so much stock in something an anonymous person on the internet says.

No wonder real estate forums are so ripe for trolling.

...i finally registered because of this issue.

re: not needing a Bachelor's... my kid sister is searching Craigslist for jobs she can do while getting her associate's degree... and found an Office Manager job listing that required a bachelor's(!). I've done office work, and I can't imagine how a bachelor's would make you better at filing or scheduling or answering phones-- but because employers *can* ask for it they *do*... it's kind of like education-inflation, yes?

I'm researching all this stuff now as my oldest child is in first grade and the amount of soul-crushing make-work is frightening. I don't know whether it's better to encourage him to learn how to take orders or to question them. I checked out the local charter school, and it was beautiful-- and the parents were definitely the ones giving orders to the young and eager teachers. The power dynamic was so different from what I grew up with... and I thought my parents were rebellious!

This isn’t what I thought would happen. I originally thought gold would drag silver up

Gold Bugs have to be annoyed at how Silver traders have slaughtered Au with the recent gains. From 66/1 all the way to 37/1 on the ratio of silver/gold. Amazing, and we aren't done yet. I think we will be hard pressed to see a silver crash absent of a simultaneous gold plunge. However, i will sell all silver if we see 50 in the short term, because gold continues to slug around here and can't seem to break 1450. Even if gold sees 1500 by the time Ag hits 50's, that's still 30/1 ratio and closing in on the 18/1 range that the two metals have experienced during previous currency collapses/resets

thunderlips11 says

Because even if you take a hit on your first loan, they’ll never let you off the hook for the second.

isn't that the whole point of the loan; so that people don't just get off the hook frivolously like all those flippers in the last 10/15 years?

I'm not sure if this is a give away or another bail out of the housing industry though. Are they not with this bill forcing a write down on the second lien?

Lenders don't really have a responsibility to lend wisely. They have to lend wisely mainly because they lose money if they don't get paid back. Lately the one paying back has been Uncle Sam sadly, which means lenders get paid back regardless of the loan they gave out. I don't like uncle sam paying out just as much as bailing out the debtors.

So this does seem like a reasonable way to force those who got into the debt to actually pay it back, without pushing that loss onto the taxpayers. Unless I am missing something of course.

I don't like the bail outs for anyone. My aunt, many of our neighbors foreclosed on a lot of properties because they were buying like stupid during the bubble, with dollar signs covering their eyes. Well deserved.

The only once I as a human being feel bad for are those who were impacted by this utter stupidity and were not involved. Which would be the responsible people who lost jobs in a bad economy, the renters, businesses which were affected by the downturn, etc... (not those who over-borrowed like teenagers oblivious to consequences)

ChrisLA says

Lenders don’t really have a responsibility to lend wisely. They have to lend wisely mainly because they lose money if they don’t get paid back.

I have to love a business where borrowers can be followed until they die to collect debts.

On the other hand, the banker that borrows money from other people is under no such obligation. Banker made bad loans? Oh, sorry depositors! Sorry bondholders! The the bank is bankrupt, you don't get paid back! Guess I'll go start another bank with the millions I made!

It's completely baffling to me that people are OK with this situation.

I'm not sure i would use $10 as your starting point, as that was a huge dip in the world economy everywhere with decently quick recovery. If I was to put a number in there, I would probably use $14, the prior number to the 2008 crash or $18 the top of the 2008.

That puts it closer to 70 or 90 for a top.

thunderlips11 says

If the government hadn’t stepped in to save the banks from their own bad decisions by dumping cash by the trillions on them, a huge number of banks, including big players like Bank of America, Citigroup, etc. would not exist today, and their shareholders wiped out.

Much more than the shareholders. Junior debt holders would have been wiped out too, and it may have gone to senior debt, and even to non-FDIC depositors.

Chris wants home debtors to be chased down until the end of time, but he's perfectly fine with bankers jilting their bond holders and depositors.

Yea capitalism! Debt jail for the common folks, get out of jail free cards for bankers!

"H1-Bs: This program is excellent for the nation, and we should stop thinking of it as some kind of stop-gap. "

I was beginning to wonder whether you were a tech executive. But now I know with 101% certainity you are. Admit it, your an employer and you support H1-Bs because you like having the cheap labor.

Let's see... given that a large chunk of primary lien holders are in the government sponsored enterprises, is it any wonder that bankers want to change the rules after the fact so that the primary lien holders bears more of the losses?

MarkInSF says

Interesting points about prop 13, Patrick. I did not know that.

Here's a description of the court case that led to property taxes being taken away from the areas they are collected:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serrano_v._Priest

On the one hand, I can see that people are much more amenable to paying property taxes when it goes directly to their local schools (and therefore supports local property values). But on the other hand, it seems unfair that kids in poor areas should get crappy schools. Bad way to start out life.

It's kind of like taxpayers said "well, if we have to share with poor districts, then we're not paying property taxes." So California schools went from near the best to near the worst, tied with Mississippi. Except in rich neighborhoods where fundraising drives raise money that stays in the local school district. Since it's basically private funding of public schools, the state can't touch that.

Documentary about it: http://www.aypf.orgbriefs/2004/fb010804.htm

Bap33 says

I think he buys in the area he lives in. Bay / Delta, but I could be worng.
I do not know how directly his living wages are tied to rental prices. I am 100% sure he’ll answer any question you may have about pretty much anything.

So what's the truth about him getting almost broke - on the verge of chapter 11? Only he can confirm.

HousingWatcher: that's an ad hominem --even if I were a manager, it would have no bearing on the strength of the arguments I've presented. Even so, your charge is misplaced. I'm a senior software developer at a large corporation. Haven't had fewer than five layers of management between myself and a board of directors in several years, and have never formally managed people. I've worked at small companies too, but not recently.

I'm hardly unbiased, though. Coding at scale is a team sport, and I revel in getting shit done. My teams have included a great many excellent people who worked well on H1-B, and I count many of them amongst my friends. Generally speaking, I enjoy working with bright and dedicated people, no matter where they're from.

Sad fact: I've never seen an H1-B worker utterly fail and wash out; but a significant (non-majority) fraction of domestic college hires interview fine and then simply don't hack it. (See again: the subtext of my advice to my brother.) Those kids are plenty bright, but they don't produce. It's usually a matter of work ethic or attitude.

http://www.petitegiraffes.com you can buy them!

shrekgrinch says

Califorina is already the HIGHEST taxed state in the nation

Jerrypap was clearly talking about how he was being taxed, wasn’t he?

Wow, you're really reaching.

Jerrypap has probably left the conversation, so only he could clear that up. Pretty much anybody (except you apparently) looking at Jerrypap's statement would assume he was making a statement of some sort of statistical fact.

If you assume he's talking about how HE was being taxed, then his statement is just meaningless gobbledygook, since it would make no sense to talk about the "highest taxed state in the nation" based on one's personal experience in in MN and CA.

And of course, H1-Bs can't jump ship in the middle of a project if they get a better job offer from another company. Employers love the indentured servitude of the H1-B system. And they also have to be super loyal workers because if they are fired, they must leave the U.S. within 2 weeks.

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

Sigh… poor, gentle, tatupu. Please assure me that you will use the dictionary as a stepping-stone to better things in at least SOME part of your life… for instance, as a stool for gathering hard-to-reach foodstuffs from the top of your fridge. You know, where you keep the tastiest of treats.

Such lovely language. I think you missed your calling.

Thanks again tatupu! Problem is, I fucking love to swear like a sailor.

I notice you’ve resorted to the standard attack the person rather than the argument trick. I’ll assume that you no longer wish to debate the topic at hand then.. Obviously you have given up. Don’t worry–no shame in that.

C'mon now, I'm just funnin' ya again. A little sarcasm hurts no one, at least most of the time. And I AM glad that you know that attacking the person is logically flawed argument. Hooray for all!

fyi: from your link: “Consistent with or based on reason; logical”.

Not going to college because you are hoping you will get an inheritance is NOT logical or based on reason… So, I’m sorry. You’re wrong.

Not a quote from me and not my argument, sorry. That is why such re-phrasings are considered 'straw men'. They are weaker arguments, typically stuffed with irrationality, that are easily knocked-down. They also impy that the re-teller can read the mind of the person who made the original statement, which is impossible.

tatupu70 says

terriDeaner says

And one last time for the record… acquiring an inheritance is not an argument against going to college. It is simply an exception I stated to demonstrate that your hard and fast personal rule was not true:

Well, the topic was and is “should young people invest in higher education…” so I apologize for thinking you were arguing about that topic. I’m surprised you didn’t bring up the fact that you could win the lottery. Or fall on the ice in front of Wal-Mart and sue them for $1MM. Or marry well. See, I can do it too! Am I as clever as you?

You got it! Well, sort of... the whole idea of this thread was to discuss the very PROBABLE outcome that IF you go to college that you MAY NOT get a good job, AND THEN college debt will make your life WORSE than if you had not gone to college. Specifically, if you go to school for computer programming/IT. This was initially contrasted with another PROBABLE outcome in where one could pursue a more lucrative trade which did not require the assumption of lots of debt. Many other unlikely and probable career possibilities also exist, so making overgeneralized statements like:

tatupu70 says

It’s impossible to prosper without a job.

does not really move the discussion forward.

I don't think you're trying to be malicious here, I think you're just unwilling to believe me (which is fine), or many of the elements of formal reasoning I've presented to you (which makes me very, very sad inside...hooray for none).

Your issue originally was:

tatupu70 says

It’s impossible to prosper without a job.

To which I jokingly replied:

terriDeaner says

Well for goodness sake, let’s hope you never inherit anything!

And then your position seems to have changed to:

tatupu70 says

Really? We’re talking about the merits of going to college and your advice is for kids to get an inheritance?

To which I then replied:

terriDeaner says

Aw come on now tatupu, I don’t really feel that way.

To be clear... my argument correctly and specifically re-stated to address your issue would be:

If you have enough inheritance to live a prosperous life, then you do not need a job to be prosperous. Furthermore, since you are already prosperous, you also do not need to go to college to be prosperous. Even so, a college experience could still be valuable for other reasons.

which follows from this more generalized quote of mine:

terriDeaner says

I doubt that there are many that are unemployed and happy, but just because you don’t know anyone who is unemployed and happy doesn’t make it universally true.

and these quotes of mine on specifics:

terriDeaner says
And one last time for the record… acquiring an inheritance is not an argument against going to college. It is simply an exception I stated to demonstrate that your hard and fast personal rule was not true:

terriDeaner says

If college was free then I’d suggest nearly everyone should go for the experience.

See the difference between your re-phrasing and mine?

And please notice that the words "...you do not need to go to college to be prosperous" are not the same as "...it is a stupid idea to go to college". Again, two separate positions. Also note that my statement does not say that "you should get an inheritance so you do not have to go to college." - also not my position.

shrekgrinch says

Thanks for all the views and posts (yes, even you msilenus!), everybody!

Kudos for all! Admonishments for some!

Except in rich neighborhoods where fundraising drives raise money that stays in the local school district.
The other avenue for local school funding is parcel taxes. I think looking at the communities that have parcel taxes goes a long way to explaining Fortress Bay Area.
Although all districts can propose a parcel tax to their community, they are relatively rare in most of the state. Between 2001 and June 2009, out of roughly 980 California school districts, 132 conducted parcel tax elections and 83 districts passed them. Only seven of those districts were located in Southern California, while 66 were within the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. The districts that had successful elections generally serve fewer low-income students than the typical California school district.

A blast from the past

Errrr wait, this was FIVE weeks ago

I think you may be right. Prices going up in the good areas down in the bad areas. At least that's what I'm seeing.

toothfairy says

I think you may be right. Prices going up in the good areas down in the bad areas. At least that’s what I’m seeing.

Care to share some data to back up your claim?...from good areas. Show me some sold at higher price in last year or two, more then what they were sold in 2007.