patrick.net

Tenouncetrout says

While gas and oil is being artificially inflated to make it so, at the expense of Global famine, just so Political points can be scored.

I just don't know. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I really don't know. IF you believe in capitaism and markets at all, then you have to accept the market as a price discovery mechanism, and that peak oil is happening, and hence the price discovery process takes that into account. THere are several big producers competing with eachother, and the US exherting a fair amount of influence (you know how much less we have always paid for gas then Europe right ?). They were paying the price we now pay, what, 20 years ago ?

How is it supposed to work ? It stays cheap, and we use it up wastefully and quickly, and then one day the price just jumps to $100/gallon ?

Seriously, if the demand keeps increasing, and the supply decreases very slowly, what do you expect to happen ? Sure they could sell it cheaper, but hey, it's whatever the market will bear. Thet's the sellers right. That's why alternatives are so important.

Speculators might jump the gun, as they did in 2008 (or was that a last ditch effort to spark inflation?), but at great risk. Eventually though and not so far off in the future, gas will get more expensive.

Tenouncetrout says

currently there’s an over supply.

You mean the extra few days worth in your graph ?

marcus says

IF you believe in capitaism and markets at all, then you have to accept the market as a price discovery mechanism, and that peak oil is happening, and hence the price discovery

Peak Oil my Ass!

See that flat line for the Month of May, that's the Oil industry actually buying the contracts the gets sold off to keep the price $100 or above. They can afford to do this for years. As long as they are getting Billions in profits every week. Supply and Demand has nothing to do with it. They control the Commodity they can control the price.
Even as usage declines and those with cold feet sell off. They know Oil is still needed to drive commerce.

It's the Robber Barrons all over again sucking the carcasses of helpless Americans with Washington in their pocket all the way.

Greenies love it, because they've been trying to get people to drive Unicorn Fart powered cars for years, and this is just what they need to boost sales, lest they get the steak knives at the end of the month. And it looks good in the Polls.

We're just caught in the middle of the greedy money grubbing people to lazy to produce, and the Political aspirations of those that chose to ignore it and embrace it as part of their cause.

All capitalizing by politicizing peak Oil, Forien Dependency, Global Warming, or Profiting from it, by driving prices higher. It only serves to create havoc on all the worlds ecconomies, not just our own divided recovery. They all Chose to ignore that bread $4.25 a loaf here, is bread $4.25 everywhere else in the world, including the most destitute regions in the world.

Tenouncetrout says

See that flat line for the Month of May, that’s the Oil industry actually buying the contracts the gets sold off to keep the price $100 or above. They can afford to do this for years.

I was a floor trader for years, and I can tell you, with your ability to interpret charts, and exactly who is holding the price up and why, you should definitely move to NY or Chicago and get in to trading. Maybe get a job for Golman Sachs.

One question though. IF the oil industry can hold the price wherever they want, why only $100 ? How do they figure out what they can get away with ? And also, do you think Peak Oil is a lie ? That it won't happen in our lifetime ? Also, can demand ever be high enough relative to supply to warrant price increases ? Or is it all just a con game.

I find it fascinating that you are the republican(relatively speaking), and I'm the democrat, but I actually believe in markets working more than you do.

IT's reasonable to think that big participants are bidding oil up, but by definition, that's risky. They are already sellers, that is they have oil to sell. Now when they buy these contracts, trying to hold the price up, they have even more oil to sell. That's risky, because if they miscalculated, and say Russia comes in and starts pushing the price down, when they are long far more oil than they even physically possess, even they might then have to do some panic selling. They have a lot of production in motion, and commitments to sell a certain amount of what they produce, so they can't wait forever to sell. What a bitch that would be, needing to sell a lot, right when you were failing in your effort to bid the price up, necessitating that you sell even more (and at a loss on the ones you bought in effort to bid the price up).

(Guess I'm repeating myself)

Conspiracy theories are easy to generate. But being a huge participant in a market, and selling your huge size at a price that you like, might not be as easy as you imagine.

marcus says

Russia comes in and starts pushing the price down, when they are long far more oil than they even physically possess, even they might then have to do some panic selling.

Nope that was what our interest was about in the Georgia uprising in 08.

""I think that if Russia isn't somehow engaged, a Russia that really does feel marginalized and isolated in many ways is even more threatening to our interests," said Stephen Flanagan, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who served in both the Clinton and George H.W. Bush administrations. "Because I think they still have a lot of capacity to make mischief to do damage to our interests around the world."

In this new global economy, Flanagan said, that may mean punishing Russia with one hand and embracing it with the other. "

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5595811&page=1

Besides all of the Opec countries are only making great profits as well, how our Policy allows to keep them in a lucrative windfall is no concern of theirs. Their not going to fuck it up.

Russia was just a random choice, and I don't know much about oil. MY only point is that markets aren't as easy to manipulate as you might think.

That's not to say they are never manipulated by big participants. We all know about what the Hunt bros did in the metals market in the late seventies. I can think of other examples of markets being manipulated, even now, but as I tried to explain, it's risky. What happened to the Hunt brothers with their cornering of the silver market ?

As a big guy I had a VW Jetta TDI (Diesel) which was fairly small but got 40 miles per gallon!

Had that for 8 years but sold it and bought a Jeep Wrangler. Now that I live in a rural area with lots of mountains and snow it works better. The little VW was fine when I lived in the city.

Mother Muckraker says

Marketing of small cars is complete BS.

I'm convinced that a secondary goal of the "Americans are too -- big -- safe -- stylish -- smart-- special to buy low profit cars" is to help get the upcoming CAFE standards relaxed.

Mother Muckraker says

The only way to get these companies to comply and make more fuel efficient cars is by government regulation and that’s where we as a people need to step up and take part in our democracy.

Which people will step up in bigger numbers? The people who bought Geo Metros or the people who bought three ton Tailgater Specials?

Ford is making a whole line of small engines.
Finally someone is moving forward. Unless they screw the pooch on that and make it some status symbol car that Greenie Doofuses would pay $75,000 for a car that looks like a kiwi and has the top speed of a School bus.

Are you a Greenie Doofus too?

By forcing blacks out of their neighborhood, tearing down neighborhoods, and replacing it with the "Hilliary Clinton center for wayward Liberals" then sell the remaining land and property to Developers to build Panera bakeries and another Starbucks, and Townhouses that go for 600K a pop.

They then move those displaced peoples closer to neighborhoods that don't tow the Liberal line. But then at the end of the day, the Liberal politicians in City hall that were architects the whole scheme, go home to hide behind the Gates in their 3million dollar home.

Why is it the Liberals on the board with out fail the number one they ask about their over priced neighborhoods they are looking into.
"Good Schools" everyone else get shit, and the Liberals make damn sure of it, but their own spawn, gets the greatest sports venues, leaning labs, media centers, their schools are contemporary Campuses. Everyone else gets another trailer for the school yard.

Did you really want to know, or were you expecting a race bait revealing answer?

I really want to know what TOT smokes. Ok I'll bite TOT, could you document this process with actual facts, examples, real world numbers etc.?

Tenouncetrout says

OH I haven’t forgot that I’m pissed off that $45,000 Egg cars that get crappy gas mileage for it’s intended practical purpose. While gas and oil is being artificially inflated to make it so, at the expense of Global famine, just so Political points can be scored. While in the meantime we’re stockpiling Oil and currently there’s an over supply.

Yeah, I think that the gas mileage on supposed "green" cars is absurd, and then charging a premium for it is even more absurd.

I think that gas is held "artificially" low. I did not see if you answered the question on peak oil, but I suspect that your view on that may be the reason for your valuation.

I think that we are either at or close to peak oil. That combine with all the externalized costs that go in oil production. Also, all the great things that we make out of oil.

Not only is oil undervalued, but the rate at which we burn it, and what we burn if for is somewhat foolish.

BigRock says

As a big guy I had a VW Jetta TDI (Diesel) which was fairly small but got 40 miles per gallon!

Yeah, at 6'2" 215lbs. I fit just fine in my Jetta TDI Wagon. On long highway trips I find that I can get 45 mpg.

Better mgp than a lot of the hybrids.

state says

who is holding it artificially low? why are they doing it?

Well... basically all of us for allowing the oil industry to avoid paying for their Externalities of their product.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality

Do you think BP is ever going to pay the full cost of their oil spill?

Some may say... but... but.. but.. "if we had to pay the fishermen for all their lost profits because of the spill, gas would be $10 a GALLON!"

...yes... yes it would...

...Also, our short sightedness in letting a finite resource, a resource that can do amazing things, a resource that should be used to build the next stage of human development, be burned like it is going out of style.

Humanity is just not built to think long term.

I am reminded of American history when people were moving west, and upon seeing the great redwood forests of the pacific north west thought that they could cut as many and as fast as they pleased, and would never run out of trees...

...they were wrong...

BUT! trees, different from oil, can be managed, regrown and basically made to last forever.

bob2356 says

I really want to know what TOT smokes. Ok I’ll bite TOT, could you document this process with actual facts, examples, real world numbers etc.?

That's another problem with liberals. Always trying to stifle creativity.

Tenouncetrout says

the Liberal politicians in City hall that were architects the whole scheme, go home to hide behind the Gates in their 3million dollar home.

Yes, here's a good movie clip representation of one of those evil liberals.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FARSi_ZXe3A

The real problem is that the automakers are run my their marketing department. These marketers force the automakers to build cars with a lot of extra unescessary crap like 4 doors instead of 2, and power door locks, power windows, cabin air filters, side air bags, oversized rims, and worst of all their edict that all cars have a 0-60 in less then 10 seconds. All those things, plus government mandates have made gas mileage improvements over the last 30 years negligable. But now even the lowest form of car can smoke it's tires from a stoplight.

zzyzzx says

The real problem is that the automakers are run my their marketing department. These marketers force the automakers to build cars with a lot of extra unescessary crap like 4 doors instead of 2, and power door locks, power windows, cabin air filters, side air bags, oversized rims, and worst of all their edict that all cars have a 0-60 in less then 10 seconds. All those things, plus government mandates have made gas mileage improvements over the last 30 years negligable. But now even the lowest form of car can smoke it’s tires from a stoplight.

Auto makers build cars that people will buy. Period. Automakers that don't are gone. The marketers don't do jack. There are plenty of makes and models out there. If someone wants it they can buy it. If people wanted high mileage they would buy it. If they want low power they would buy it. People are happy to plunk down the money for power everything and fast acceleration. It's called a free market. If you want higher mileage cars then tax gas more.

bob2356 says

Auto makers build cars that people will buy. Period. Automakers that don’t are gone. The marketers don’t do jack. There are plenty of makes and models out there. If someone wants it they can buy it. If people wanted high mileage they would buy it. If they want low power they would buy it. People are happy to plunk down the money for power everything and fast acceleration. It’s called a free market. If you want higher mileage cars then tax gas more.

Well... they don't always just go out of business, they also lose market share, but stay in business.

And, this is what has been happening to the US automakers over the past several decades, because... drum roll please... * * * * * --> More people have been wanting higher mileage, reliable cars.

Marketers can and have in some organizations been instrumental in running companies into the ground.