patrick.net

Robert Cote'

Your very accurate description of "Mom and Dad San Diego" deserved nothing less! It's just so hysterical to me that Ameriprise runs these repulsive ass smooching commercials about how the 60's generation was sooooooo unique and what individuals they were and it only took you about three sentences to sum up their intentions, designs and "bail out" plan. It was like, "hey I know these people!"

My personal foreclosure "negotiation" tool of choice:
http://www.carnwyffa.u-net.com/GUNS/G36.html

It's too bad they're illegal here in the P.R.C. :-(

Posse HELOC?
HELOC Posse?

Hang
Every
Last
Owner of
Crapboxes

Newsfreak,

I approved your comment. Certain common spammer keywords will automatically trigger moderation, inlcuding: Paxil, Viagra, Zocor and Lipitor (and you used all four). Because CIALIS is also on the list, any post with the the word soCIALISm also gets moderated as well.

Posse HELOComptus

drop in home values, but not in prices - perhaps they are refering to inflation

Yes, I went to the doctor in Elko and he had a clock on the wall with the big V. Too funny.

Yes, we get innundated with plastic pharma crap all the time. At least the Viagra folks have a sense of humor. They've sent out calculators that "rise up" when you push a button, and retractable pens...

T Lynch:

Inflation. It's as if the 5¢ loaf of bread your grandparents talked about still cost 5¢ today, only not quite so extreme. The price stayed the same, but the "value" dropped. It would be nice if the article used terms like real and nominal, but that's be too far above their target audience.

PRC sucks!! I’d hate to live with 1.2 billion other people…bad enough I have to deal with the 300 million idiots in America!

T Lynch,

Are you being sly here ? ;-) P.R.C. = People's Republic of California. Or perhaps that should be P.R.K. (Kalifornia).

ahahahahah it's the Chewbacca defense,

It just doesn't make sense, if value falls but prices stay the same how can there be a crash, it just doesn't make sense.

The economists cautioned that the projected dip in home values is not a decline in prices. They actually expect home prices in California will stay flat and inflation will push values lower. The forecast is for the state overall -- some areas may fare better, some worse.

But Brown, a 26-year veteran of the local market, recently cautioned that buyers who plan to stay in a home less than five years need to be careful. Real estate moves in cycles, he said.

Ratcliff writes that there are a number of variables that could still upend his soft-landing forecast, and even lead to a statewide recession. One is the potential for another large drop in manufacturing employment, another the unknown effect of the adjustable rate mortgages that became popular with buyers in the past few years.

Sounds a lot like talking out both sides of ones mouth. I hear capitulation. Nice usuage of the Chewbacca defense.

Value down, prices flat, doesn't make sense, walla soft landing.

HARM,

What would the purpose be of having translucent mags? Just curious.

Actually I have been to a few states where I felt like I should add, “I am speaking English here, excuse me?”

I felt that way in Boston all the time.

One is the potential for another large drop in manufacturing employment

Or the potential for a large drop in housing employment?

What would the purpose be of having translucent mags? Just curious.

Think of the translucent mag as the 26" Spreewells* for guns.

*Wheels with the stupid spinning middle part that continues to rotate when Escalade is stopped. Named after Latrel Spreewell, thugball playa best known for choking his coach when playing for golden state.

But when you see all the spam that comes in from people selling pharmaceutical drugs, then you realize how important that spam filter is.

I'm thinking of adding the following to our blog's spam filter:

"_____ only goes up"
"they're not making any more of it"
"Everyone wants to live in _______"
"I know a guy who sold his house in ______ for $__,000,000.00 over asking."
"David Lereah/Leslie Appleton-Young/Gary Watts/anyone from Harvard says ________"

The mercury news is a total rag of a paper. It makes the Chronicle read like Shakespeare.

From the Mercury news report....."Ratcliff writes that there are a number of variables that could still upend his soft-landing forecast, and even lead to a statewide recession. One is the potential for another large drop in manufacturing employment, another the unknown effect of the adjustable rate mortgages that became popular with buyers in the past few years."

I'm picking reason number 2 for a big bubble burst here!

What would the purpose be of having translucent mags? Just curious.

Actually there is a pratical reason for this: you can quickly see how much ammo you have left without having to remove the magazine. Comes in very handy when fending off wave after wave of oncoming bank repo men.

I just can't get past The economists cautioned that the projected dip in home values is not a decline in prices. Amazing.

Might as well have written, consequent contraction of the liquid was not sufficient enough to return the product to a post-manufacturing condition upon removal from storage*

In an actual report submitted to the FDA by a labmate when I worked for an evil German company.

bank repo men

will they be Men in Black?

They would probably have ill-fitiing suits and no style

bank repo men

will they be Men in Black?

More like Emilio Estevez and Harry Dean Stanton.

will they be Men in Black?

In black helicopters?

HARM!

Good one! At first I thought it was a "cut-away" to show the ample mag capacity, then in the write up you find it's real. I guess I was wondering why the hi-tech show and tell? A 1/4" slot or "window" might work just as well.

*not design advice

So when do you thik they are going to start calling? The MIB that is?

A 1/4″ slot or “window” might work just as well.

It is made of plastic... I mean polymer. May just as well make it translucent.

It does look cool.

Okay, joking aside - when do you guys forecast the foreclosures?

People are getting so worked up over that UCLA report. They had started changing their tune a while back.

I see a parallel. Greenspan first warns of "irrational exuberance". Then 3 years later says, "productivity gains" support the new valuations. Then just before the bubble is going to burst forever, says, "bubbles can be identified only in retrospect".

I trust my common sense far more than economists, analysts etc.

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0606.shtm

Northern CA DQ numbers are out - we've got some negative YOYs.

Peter P,

Oh don't get me wrong I like it and it may even be a nice safety feature as well.

lunarpark,
NICE! Not only are some YoY median $$'s down, but every single BA county has YoY sales declines. Also, a side observation is that this data is confirmation of how much median prices are a lagging indicator - it's the outlying areas that continue to show median price gains. Santa Clara cty is the exception, although I bet if you broke it down by SJ and south vs. more established northern SCC the trend would be confirmed.

skibum -

Yes, that is what I'm seeing - I've been tracking inventory in parts of SC County since last year. While Cupertino is only showing a slight inventory increase, other "less desirable" areas are showing large increases in inventory. I'm actually surprised by the small .3% gain in SF - could we see negative YOY in SF by next month?

To BA or not BA,

Agreed! I'll admit the A/R and LA-Y response were anything but candid about the current state of affairs, but suprised? No not really. I firmly believe that so many in RE are convinced that we can not have an economy without RE as the primary engine that to lie in it's defense is not to lie at all! Who cares if the comments and observations don't make sense? If it "buys" us another quarter, another month until they can figure out their next 11th hour move then it was a "good lie". It's just another glaring and obvious sign as to how desperate things have become for them.

T Lynch,
Before you go off and finish the last 10min of your daily workload, try this:

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSACB.shtm

The DQ site has all of Cali's numbers accessible via the left panel.

So I have a friend who I asked if she thought house prices would go down in our area (Mountain View) - she is a realtor - and of course she said - it never goes down in this area. For the sake of friendship I left it at that, but I'm wondering how many are completely deluded or just desperate?

SP,

bated? I've seen it both ways so I wasn't sure which was more proper.

Anyway, has anyone else noticed that? I think we'll see many an instance where analysts and economists are willing to bend over backwards to give RE every benefit of the doubt. And why not? Since 69% are "homeowners" and if they can sign their life away for a mortgage they can potentially vote so where's the sin in trying to "protect" them.

Well gee, uh had you guys not contorted to craft and justify the bubble on the way up, would we be in this mess now? Some of the rationalization has come from blogs just like this one. Incomes will rise to fill the hole? Yeah, right.

"A lot of the angst, bitterness and stupidity seems to be caused by people thinking that they cannot have a home unless they buy a house."

For us, it is the fact that a landlord means: restricted pets; no painting and decorating; - wait a minute - this sounds like a good deal.......

I guess it galls us that we have to be careful of someone elses property and he could do what he wants with it (i.e sell) without consulting us.

DinOR Says:
Anyway, has anyone else noticed that? I think we’ll see many an instance where analysts and economists are willing to bend over backwards to give RE every benefit of the doubt. And why not? Since 69% are “homeowners” and if they can sign their life away for a mortgage they can potentially vote so where’s the sin in trying to “protect” them.

A major flaw with MSM reporting of RE news is that more likely than not, the analysts and reporters own property, ie, have conflicts of interest in reporting and analyzing RE news. It's a fundamental flaw and one that's difficult to get around.

skibum,

It would be pretty silly on my part to deny that! Maybe when we have RE analysts appear on CNBC they should have to disclose that they have an interest in real estate, (partially not kidding). Was it Ed Leamer (Anderson Report) that disclosed that he had sold his Los Angeles area home not long ago? Perhaps CAR brow beat him into making "atonement"?

I'm perfectly serious though, I'll bet right now housing bears are being coerced into "seeing the bigger picture".

Surfer-X: Some great one-liners. Too often they're lost in a sea of fuck.

HARM: Much higher yield on the funnies along with good commentary.

Randy H: Maestro

Peter P: RH Sidekick. Needs more meat and less sushi.

Astrid: MIA

SQT: Sorry, I know I've seen some good posts from you, but during my usual quick scan read, your TLA (Three Letter Acronym) gets smacked with SP etc. I guess I haven't been reading long enough.

As a general rule, the quick repartee doesn't work as well for me personally as the 3-5 paragraph posts. WW2's heartfelt musings, DinOr's negotiation suggestions, RC's Free Market Position papers or JH's angry bearish commentary are usually more coherent and enjoyable than the quick back and forth banter. Randy's remarks are not obfuscatory. If you don't understand them, you should probably stick with Vanguard Investment Funds or ask him for clarification. He's always quick to reply.

Sir Rick of Shmend Said:

"hey, I would highly recommend ‘Confessions of an Economic Hitman’. Its interesting because the author describes the tactics America uses on third world nations. It interesting because those are exactly the tactics they use on us!"

Thanks for the democracy.org link, I found the transcript very interesting reading indeed.