patrick.net

vain says

bubblesitter says

Same here. I am adding more and more of them on redfin favorites everyday but none of the old favorites are coming up as *SOLD*.

Classic example. I have so many on my watchlist.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cypress/9838-Ravari-Dr-90630/home/3994846

That linked to a short sale. Short sales usually take forever if they even get approved at all. Any listing that says ’short sale approved’ is only telling half the truth. It was approved for the last buyer that walked away. It really means that they (the agent) has a good idea what price the bank wants.

That's my point. This is a part of inventory that's going to drag the prices down.
I wonder how much the home owner is paying to the bank to just stay in home and not being foreclosed on?

Many ignorant folks in this site. See too many wishful thinkers here thinking that price MUST DROP. The reality is no. It won't drop significantly more (20% plus) in good neighborhood. Crappy neighborhood, yes. But not good house in good neighborhood. I live in San Diego, and I know our good neighborhoods are not dropping because homeowners has SIGNFICANT equity in their house, they just don't have to sell cheap. They have the cash and freedom to just sit on it. They didn't buy between 2003-2006, they have a lot of cushioning.

Keep dreaming about getting a 3000sqfts La Jolla ocean view house for $500k. I will be the first in line to make an offer.

There are lots of folks with deep pockets and to tell you the truth, lots of people make good money investing in stock between the housing bubble time, myself included. So, we are looking for houses to buy like a hawk. When there's strong demand, price will stay up. Trust me, don't be a fool, if the price is right, act. Don't sit on the sideline forever and assume the housing opportunity will come to you easy. Its a luxury item and not meant for everyone to purchase.

Disclaimer: I did buy a detached house myself during Dec 2010 because the price to own ratio make very Good financially sense to me & my wife. And no, I am not a REA.

25% from here in nominal terms would take SD down to year 2000-2001, right before the tech recession:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SDXRNSA

they just don’t have to sell cheap. They have the cash and freedom to just sit on it. They didn’t buy between 2003-2006, they have a lot of cushioning.

Of course. It's not the home owners that establish the market-clearing price on the way down -- it's the banks.

So, we are looking for houses to buy like a hawk.

investment properties will only be supported by area rents and demand/supply issues.

Now, I don't have a crystal ball to see what's going to happen this decade. But there are certainly plenty of trends in place to utterly slaughter California real estate values.

FIRE employment is down below 2000 levels:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706FIREN

As is total employment:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706NAN

Information, same thing:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706INFON

Manufacturing is disastrous:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706MFGN

Education and health is the one bright spot:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706EDUHN

But we're due for a combination of massive cuts in headcount and spending in this area.

As is military, but they don't have charts for that, and at any rate military spending isn't going to be a growth industry any more and the SD economy will be lucky to keep the spending it is receiving.

My thesis is that we are in the process of backing out all the bullshit of the previous decade. It is going to take a lot of time, and pain.

Its a luxury item and not meant for everyone to purchase.

Buy now or be priced in forever?

Peak baby boomer is aged 55 now. Over the next 25 years the trend is going to be the baby boom dying off or being institutionalized, increasing supply.

Japan 1990-now is a very good example of a housing market grinding down from speculative peaks over an extended period of time. Unless the rich start renting houses to each other I think there's still plenty of air in this market.

Troy,
Prove me wrong, give a timeline. What's your prediction? You can't just say it will drop EVENTUALLY without giving a timeline. Everyone can say the end of the world is near, but it's meaningless without a timeline. So, I challenge you. If you say price will drop dramatically, give an estimate when.

My prediction is: for the next 5 years, there will be NO 25% drop in San Diego good neighborhoods/decent $500k SFR houses based on medium price data.

What is your prediction?

Also, don't quote me or twist the fact. I never say "buy now or be priced out forever"

I said buy now if the price to own ratio make sense to you.

You once again tried to misinform others.

masayako6412 says

Also, don’t quote me or twist the fact. I never say “buy now or be priced out forever”
I said buy now if the price to own ratio make sense to you.
You once again tried to misinform others.

Good gesture from a buyer. One buyer here spread a word of advise "it is time to buy now"..now that I have bought.

WTF is a price/own ratio? These bulls don't
even know what terminology to use, because they don't use
any indexes or analysis. Buying a house is just an emotional
experience for them. These people are to blame for the whole
housing mess we are in.

dunnross says

WTF is a price/own ratio? These bulls don’t

even know what terminology to use, because they don’t use

any indexes or analysis. Buying a house is just an emotional

experience for them. These people are to blame for the whole

housing mess we are in.

Pure emotion. Pretty much all economic common sense gets burried under pile of emotion after the home purchase.

masayako6412 says

What’s your prediction? You can’t just say it will drop EVENTUALLY without giving a timeline.

http://patrick.net/?p=612891

There are still wildcards here, like the Fed rolling out Japan-style no-down 1% mortgage interest rates

http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100902D02JFN01.htm

but I don't care about home prices that much, I care about rents.

LLs have to compete with the government, OPEC, and PG&E for their renters monthly pay-packet.

I don't see any intrinsic growth coming this decade, just continued grinding.

You once again tried to misinform others.

If prices are going down from here, it is quite likely there there will never be a good time to buy.

My preferred pricepoint is $500,000 or so, a 3% annual price drop means I get free rent basically.

I think this nation is heading straight into the toilet.

I could be wrong about that or if not that rents will somehow inflate this decade even if everything resumes the collapse that was going on 2H08-1Q09.

But I don't see any light at the end of this tunnel. Inflation can't save us since this isn't the 1970s.

Inflation will just make housing worse.

Price Rent Ratio. Big deal. I don't think it's worth replying anymore. You buy, you don't.. who cares.

Just a waste of time.

You don't get it; you don't get it.

To the folks who listen to logic: Buy now IF it's actually cheaper to own than rent. Don't really make sense to wait for the bottom. Nobody can tell the exact bottom. There are good deals out there currently. Go do some house hunting. RE is always local, you can't use macro view and look at graphs to determine when to buy. I'm done.

No point to argue. I know I'm right. :) I have cash to buy one more if the buying opportunity present itself again.

dunnross says

WTF is a price/own ratio? These bulls don’t

even know what terminology to use, because they don’t use

any indexes or analysis. Buying a house is just an emotional

experience for them. These people are to blame for the whole

housing mess we are in.

bubblesitter says

masayako6412 says

Also, don’t quote me or twist the fact. I never say “buy now or be priced out forever”

I said buy now if the price to own ratio make sense to you.

You once again tried to misinform others.

Good gesture from a buyer. One buyer here spread a word of advise “it is time to buy now”..now that I have bought.

seaside says

TechG, thanks for your opinion, though I still have couple questions.
I want you to give me some idea about the general market (HH income, unemployment rate, and home price range) of where you think ECCB is looking at, since I can hardly imagine what the place is like as ECCB was talking about 200~250K home, and you’re saying it’s upper end property in nicer area. This does not make a good sense to me, and I am pretty sure that we’re seeing different pictures as we are living in different locations.

...

So, what’s the area you think ECCB is buying is like?

I do not want to identify the exact area, since He never specifically identified it on this site ever, I assume he doesn't want it to be common knowledge. I can tell you this, a quick internet search brought up a 5 Bed, 2 Bath 3,610 Sq Ft house on a 7.50 Acre Lot for 250k, this place is very rural and another 4 Bed, 3 Bath 2,063 Sq Ft house on a 0.40 Acre Lot for 249k. These places are not near Washington DC, New York, Boston or Philadelphia where the jobs pay better and property is more expensive. Think more Bear Market territory, like Western PA.

OK, it's rural, huh?
I don't know why I thought he is buying at nicer part of suburb fairly close to the city. No wonder 250K doesn't make sense to me. I think I have to change my assumption.

I have something to say about it though, I am not sure if its nice thing for me to do or not, at this moment. I will tell you what I am thinking when the time, of course I think, is right.

Masayako,

I don't think anyone here is trying to time the exact bottom. It would be folly of course.

However, the buy now, immediately, you gonna miss out, idea is also pure rubbish.

And before you backtrack and say you didn't say that, let me quote you:

"Buy now IF it’s actually cheaper to own than rent."

And now allow me to point out that there will be no V shape recovery. That in fact during the last RE downturn, the period of the bottom....within 10% either way of the actual very bottom...lasted nearly an entire decade.

Bottom line is there is simply no urgent push to "buy now".

John,
I share my point of view , you share yours. You can't change what I feel make sense. So, in short, no point to argue. I advise people to buy when it make financial sense to them. There are good pricing houses out there to check out already. I bought one recently and probably will buy one more as rental properties when the price is right. If you don't agree to my viewpoint, then don't follow what I said. It is as simple as that. One thing I agree with you, don't rush in and buy at all cost.

However, when the opportunity come, one need to act fast. Alright, I am done educating folks to make the right decision. I don't want more people bidding offers against me. ;)

TechGromit says

Because i know where he lives, I don’t have his exact address, telephone number or Social Security number, but I have a pretty good idea what area he lives in.

I thought ECBB lived on Long Island. I'm guessing Nassau-Suffolk counties.

masayako6412 says

thing I agree with you, don’t rush in and buy at all cost.
However, when the opportunity come, one need to act fast.

????????????????????

TechG.
I always thought the right time is when the buyer and the housing market both is prepared. I have no reason to doubt ECCB's preparedness. So how about the market in his target area?

There's something more important than the price. If I had to boil it down to one simple question, it would be... Will those parents with kids love the area? If so, I'd say go for it. Otherwise, I want ECCB think bit more about the market situation.

The reason is, I just hate to see what happened to newhomebuyer7 is happeing to ECCB. newhomebuyer7 worked hard, saved hard for downpayment for years, then he bought a SFH at 50% or so slahed price off the peak. Even I thought the price is great. But the housing market in his area keep sliding down. 10~20% or so from there in 6 months. This could wipe his downpayment. I guess he will be alright in the long run since he can manage the situation, but I don't think he would love the situation either. The only problem I can think of is the area. Poor schools, crime issues, foreclosure zone, never been a kind of place parents with kids would love.

In northern virginia, housing market is quite differ from each other depending on school ratings. Home price in those area with good schools haven't crashed, dented at best, while other area with poor schools got slammed.

Call me vain if you must, but its amusing to sit here and read people speculate on where i may or may not live.

At the end of the day the want (not need, but want) for land becomes limiting. And so, I start to look at different "what if" scenarios, to see if maybe I need to forgo a want, focus on covering my needs, and not try to hit a home run at my first at-bat. After all there's nothing wrong with a start house.

But the more I look at it, the more I realize that, even if things have already bottomed out, there is little risk in waiting, as prices are not going on a tear a-la 2000-2007. Double digit appreciation is a thing of the past, at lest for the foreseeable future. And so, I wait and watch. In the end, buying a home is such a big commitment... its kind of like falling in love and getting married. You know the right one when you see it. Perhaps this is a foolish way of looking at it, but its one mans perspective.

Truth be told I get cold feet. The idea of years of savings finally being spent. The fact that my housing cost would almost double. What can I say - I've gotten comfortable living below my means and saving the difference. I've been blessed with decent health, a steady job, and reasonable wage. Why upset the applecart chasing the "security" of material things?

As I read back though some of my posts, I've notice they've gotten somewhat stale and repetitive. Sorry 'bout that.

Regards,
ECBB

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

But the more I look at it, the more I realize that, even if things have already bottomed out, there is little risk in waiting, as prices are not going on a tear a-la 2000-2007. Double digit appreciation is a thing of the past, at lest for the foreseeable future.

Most of the American public...particularly those still having a reasonable income....does not agree with this...not yet. That's what is currently driving demand. I guarantee you that about 90% of those who bought a primary residence property in LA and OC counties within the past three months, believe that their property will increase in value by a significant amount in a 5-10 year time span.

I disagree, but the mentality out there is still the same as that bubble entitlement.

Huh? ECBB. You're alive?

That's good. And I do think there must be a reason or two when you think it's about the bottom... at least in your area. Actually that is what matters after all.

All I want you to think about is this. There must be a reason why price got lowered in the area. If you can be sure that it happened not because of those negative reasons such as, the area being shitty, high foreclosure rate, high crime rate, poor schools etc, and you like the area.... you may want to go for it, for this can be your chance to have a home. Otherwise, think hard.

A HH that earns stable 80K/yr should be able to afford 200~250K home. Getting cold feet is nothing unusual. It happened a lot and there's nothing wrong about it. Please make sure you got some money left in your hands after you bought a home, because anything can happen to anyone.

I tried to post the following rant (shown below) but Patrick.net said "that titles already used". Go figure - it was one of my threads from about a year ago.

See rant below.

****
Just need to vent. I've been saving up a down payment for almost ten years now. If you had told me ten years ago that I'd have as much in the bank as I do now. Heck if you told me I'd be earning as much as I am now, I'd have figured that I would have been in a place of my own for some time now.

Obviously that isn't the case - I don't mind renting - but if we are blessed with another child we'd need more space than what we have right now. Don't get me wrong - we're comfortable (and in many ways fortunate - we still have stable jobs, the recession hasn't devastated us the way it has some of our friends and relatives) - but for what our HH income is, one would think that a home would not be as much of a stretch as it is.

I keep thinking its me - that there's something I should be doing - some avenue i haven't considered.
But maybe this is just as good as it gets. Looking at data for my area. Median HH income $98,341, median price $320,300. Far more in line than I care to admit to.

I think what it is is that - our income is x times the median, but we can't afford much more than a starter home without feeling like we're stretching ourselves too thin. Perhaps we're too conservative for our own good. If we spend like the "average" american spent - we'd have the half million dollar McMansion by now - and be one step from disaster.

I keep thinking that moving to a lower tax, lower cost area may be the solution but 1) we'd be far from family and 2) there's a certain amount we need to earn to meet our monthly obligations (student loans, etc.) even if we bought a house in cash - and that supposes we could find jobs.

I just feel fricking frustrated. Plus, the fact that I have such a yearning for something that is so material in the grand scheme of things, that just frustrates me more - I try not to be materialistic.

I want to believe that prices will crash if / when the economy sees its next downturn. But thinking prices will crash - with no data to support it - that's the other side of the same coin (prices always go up). Even Case-Shiller shows that - with enough government intervention - a floor can be put on prices - I expect prices will stay more or less flat (+/-5% in either direction) until inflation finally catches up and equilibrium is restored. Granted real wages aren't rising - but that's a completely different thread.

I just feel stuck. Despite my best efforts to work hard and get ahead, I feel like I've been sold a bill of goods. I'm not falling further behind anymore - but I'm not getting ahead either - and I'm starting to get sick and tired of being sick and tired. How the heck is everyone else doing it? Wait - that's right - the same smoke and mirrors is still going on. Makes me want to give up, given in and follow the lemmings - cliff be damned.
***
Rant ends - thanks for listening.

I should say that I'm not a whiner (even though I come across as one at times). I try to count my blessings, try to realize that I'm doing better than many. Try to be happy for my health, my family, and even my job.

But its can be difficult to keep perspective when the one thing that i think I want (a house) still seems as elusive as it did a decade ago. Growing up with the "American Dream" ingrained in my head from a young age - it makes one feel like a disappointment when said dream is still just that - a dream.

House prices are still going down, it's gravity, it's a drag but it's the law. The results may be different depending on where you live. Perhaps where you live they stopped falling. Want to see what will happen? Use Zillow or Trulia and see how many are being foreclosed on. Lots of foreclosures=prices going down.
Where my mother lived in CT there are no foreclosures lately, the median house cost 3X the median income. It was a nice prosperous town.
If you want to buy a house, get a second job, take in a roommate, and risk your financial future and use leverage (borrowed money) to achieve this goal.
Look at your tax return someday. You will find that you pay an enormous burden in TAXES that is a wealth transfer to other people who didn't earn it. The % of GDP of TAXES keeps rising, along with debt.
Anyway, we have less money left over to buy houses and pay rent, simple as that.
But, as far as worrying about buying one someday, no sweat. They'll get cheaper when interest rates go up inevitably.
Remember that your goal is always going to be to reverse-mortgage the thing anyway, so you'll get some money back anyway.
After living in Mexico for a couple of years and seeing people at the cancer treatment center a few years ago, I stopped worrying about what others think of my status or apparent prosperity. Some things are important and some are not as important as you think.
How's your health? Do you have energy? Do you have any friends? A girlfriend? Roof over your head, food to eat and some free time?
That's ENOUGH. I know some very wealthy people who are fairly miserable in their monster houses.
Want to know other miserable people? They have thousands of posts on this blog bragging about investments, etc.
Ask their opinion about anything at your peril.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

But the more I look at it, the more I realize that, even if things have already bottomed out, there is little risk in waiting, as prices are not going on a tear a-la 2000-2007.

You might want to reconsider this. QE3 is imminent and thus inflation of US Dollar as a currency. While your wage might be (hopefully) adjusted by your employee - no-one will take care about adjusting value of your savings in bank account (or wherever you keep them). That said I do not mean that RE buy is the best (or only) way to protect the value of your savings but definitely one of options.

ddavyenko says

QE3 is imminent and thus inflation of US Dollar as a currency

LOL.

So you're saying gas is going to be $10/gallon?

How exactly is that going to increase home prices?

In places that consume more oil than they produce, of course.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

I should say that I'm not a whiner (even though I come across as one at times). I try to count my blessings, try to realize that I'm doing better than many. Try to be happy for my health, my family, and even my job.

But its can be difficult to keep perspective when the one thing that i think I want (a house) still seems as elusive as it did a decade ago. Growing up with the "American Dream" ingrained in my head from a young age - it makes one feel like a disappointment when said dream is still just that - a dream.

I think your dilemna is what most of us on this board are struggling with.

It sounds like you do well, have a nice DP saved up, but when it comes time to put 10 years of savings down on an item that may still depreciate, in a market full of lies/manipulation by realtors, not to mention fraud economy... it's hard to take the plunge. Plus taking a mortgage out, and being committed to payments for the next 10-30 years. Not fun :)

Buy when your comfortable. Until then, sit on the sidelines.

I've been watching a few areas back east (MD/DE/VA) and have seen prices drop about 10k across the board (last month or two) on some pretty nice 4 bed homes. The homes are still in the $250-350k range - which I don't understand because there is no economy in some of the places we have looked.

Bellingham Bill says

So you're saying gas is going to be $10/gallon?

Yeah, this is pretty much what I'm saying. As well as all other consumer goods and services.

Bellingham Bill says

How exactly is that going to increase home prices?

You probably misread my post. I never told that home prices are going to go up. I said the value of savings which one might have in cash (by not buying house for example) will decline a lot. And obviously - if house costs $100k with 3% inflation rate and same amount with 7%+ inflation rate - guess which house is cheaper... Anyway, the point I'm trying to explain is that IMHO real estate investment looks to me quite attractive from perspective of saving my cash savings. How so? By renting them!

Last night on the news they were predicting a housing bottom in 2015,

That was the first time I actually heard them say that the bottom wasn't "next year".

if you go to the auctions you can get a good price. auction.com will have them all listed.

Once you go into the re-seller market, outside the auction, you are paying someone huge overhead with too many middle men.

I think California is a special case primarily b/c of prop 13. I personally believe the current situation in California is unsustainable and prop 13 will be dismantled. When and if this happens I will consider buying property there again. If I didn't own property and wanted to invest at this time I would leave the state. California is subject to all the same economic uncertainties that the rest of the country faces but in addition has to deal with the huge repercussions brought about by prop 13. The chickens are just now coming home to roost.

"there are far more pressing problems (on both the micro and marco levels) than home prices"

Correct

russell says

California is a special case primarily b/c of prop 13

Maybe.

But California, and especially the coastal communities, and of those, The (coveted) Fortress Communities, are a special case because they're Special.