patrick.net

Who is worse- lying mortgage broker or lying realtor?
I hate the brokers more.

These are all guesses so I'll throw mine in there. I'm playing devil's advocate.

I'm going to predict that this upcoming year there will probably be a slow but steady recovery. Probably nothing to crow about, but a recovery just the same. Its seems like this is sort of happening already anyway.

As far as the Bay Area, well I don't really think people have changed that much. If there is even an inkling of a chance that people can squeeze into a house by spending 120% of their income to do so- by golly they'll do it. All it would take would be some sort of clever way to introduce some sort of new exotic loan products. As much as I hate to say it the BA is basically fueled by bubbles. One bubble leads into another and housing bubbles are simply par for the course. Thus it wouldn't surprise me at all if in the next 3-4 years yet another bubble inflates itself and people reminisce about the good ole' days back when a starter home in the East Bay was 'only" 500k. This in turn will change the demographic of the Bay Area even further as it becomes increasingly gentrified.

What won't happen is the needed change in our fundamentals:

Right now, everyone is hoping for what they believe to be the two necessary components of a recovery: more easily accessible credit and more consumer spending.

May I translate:

People buying things they don't need with money they don't have will save America.

Now, that's the problem. And no one is even talking about it.

California Equity & Loan says

People buying things they don't need with money they don't have will save America.
Now, that's the problem. And no one is even talking about it.

Exactly! First we need to pay off the excessive debt load and then start over before we start a new bubble,instead most of America is interested in maintaining the bubble without generating the $ to payoff current obligations. :)

Wow. "Private debt gets transformed into public debt"

That translates into our tax $dollars being used to keep the housing bubble inflated.

Never thought of it that way until it was presented that way.

David9 says

Wow. "Private debt gets transformed into public debt"

That translates into our tax $dollars being used to keep the housing bubble inflated.

Never thought of it that way until it was presented that way.

Yes, that's exactly what's going on, BIG time. Literally trillions of dollars.

Banks blew all your deposits on extremely irresponsible private mortgages, but escape most of the responsibility. The banks just force the public to pay for their losses via:

Fannie
Freddie
FHA
Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage-backed bonds with newly printed cash
TARP
Stimulus spending
Increased jumbo loan limits

And probably other government programs I can't think of or that are still hidden.

So responsible savers are punished at least three times:

1. House prices are kept higher than the free market would
2. Near-zero interest rates on savings
3. Higher personal share of the national debt

The 1% gets to privatize profit and socialize risk. The 99% is forced to pay the 1% whether the 1% wins or loses. Maybe even more if the 1% loses.

The right thing to do:

* Eliminate Fannie, Freddie, FHA
* Eliminate the mortgage interest deduction
* Eliminate the Federal Reserve
* Let mortgage bond holders lose. Bond buyers gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.
* Let house prices fall. Owners gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.
* Put a strict size limit on banks. No one bank should have more than 1% total US market share.

Let house prices fall. Owners gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.

or you could say their bet was right since it looks like the bail outs will continue.

The GOP says

I seriously predict if not this year, then in the next few coming years. There will be a huge mall or super store fire where most of the patrons will die, trapped and have no way out.

I kinda doubt it. I'm not sure what they are like where you are but I see a fair amount of exists. Now if they do fire drills or not is something else.

The amount of deaths due to fire in the country has dropped dramatically...even in the face of a rising population. I'd say zoning, building codes and smoke detectors did much of the job.

But what you do say about exists is true. This was pure hell that happened on '03
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Station_nightclub_fire I look for exits at any music venue..nearly had a panic attack in china when they used fireworks inside a building...

Fire deaths per capital generally have gone down in much of the planet..except the former soviet union.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-12-10-russia-hospital-fires_x.htm
I've heard of mental hospital fires where the locks on the windows are mounted outside (as to keep them in) but there is no manual electronic release that could assist. To manually unlock windows one by one is not efficient.

bubblesitter says

California Equity & Loan says

People buying things they don't need with money they don't have will save America.
Now, that's the problem. And no one is even talking about it.

Exactly! First we need to pay off the excessive debt load and then start over before we start a new bubble,instead most of America is interested in maintaining the bubble without generating the $ to payoff current obligations. :)

Why? Why do we want to pay off the debt that is currently lent to USA at very low interest rates and with lenders in line (especially everytime stock market crashes or some other crisis happens) and not invest in the future - and then borrow later at a much higher rate when no one is willing to lend because of the poor revenues due to lack of investment?

My father-in-law made a decision to send his son to US for graduate studies in Computer Sciences & take a loan from a bank in India to pay for the same - his son did well in the grad school and got a good tech job after the masters degree. They could have decided that the debt is excessive but the debt used for investment paid off in the long run and they are much better off as a family than if they had not taken that debt and the son had been with a low paying job.

repo4sale says

Obama’s setting a TREND as 1st President to=
1=Refuse to show a valid birth certificate

Not that I am a die hard Obama fan - but oh no yet another birther and conspiracy theorist! By the way, I would really like to see your birth certificate so that I can be really sure you were really born - and when you show it to me I will still refuse to believe that it was not forged.

It has nothing to do with conspiracy theories, the last thing America needs is a Petty douche bag making a political talking point out of it. That's the stuff Dictators that are above the law does. In 2007 we were NOT there YET.

Let mortgage bond holders lose. Bond buyers gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.

That will be a problem. The largest bailout, 140 billions went to AIG. This company was selling insurance to mortgage bonds holders. Works similar like PMI (now bankrupt). When bonds loosing cash flow AIG pay loses. It appears that taxpayers pay to bonds investors. This money is not recoverable in short or long perspective.

The GOP says

It has nothing to do with conspiracy theories, the last thing America needs is a Petty douche bag making a political talking point out of it. That's the stuff Dictators that are above the law does. In 2007 we were NOT there YET.

William E Baughb

Dear me.

I predict war. But this time, US defending itself from CHINA.

i predict a booming economy. more self made men real estate invesment types and more APPLE products to keep us exited about the future here in the USA. i predict OBAMA 2012 and a huge employment boom and house buying spree parlty because of the troops returning from the war and other war profits finding they way back home here in the USA. i predict no more OCCUPY and a new respect for banks. if you can not beat them you join them. i saw this play out with the boomers. dont see why it will be any diff with this generation. i preedict china as our ally againts IRAN and i predict better oil sources for the us from both the pipeline and japans whales. i see a real turn around in 2012.

REpro says

It appears that taxpayers pay to bonds investors. This money is not recoverable in short or long perspective.

had a guy explain this to me. it is not real money. if you can just exept that it is numbers swirling arounf and around then you can breath a lot easier. debt is where we get wealth. wiht out it there can be no wealth. what came first the chicken or the egg? get it? and as long as there is debt to fuel industry we will be fine and we wil alwyas have debt thanks to the FED.

whoosh says

xactly! First we need to pay off the excessive debt load and then start over before

those debts can never be repaid . NEVER> it is impossible. live with it.

Cash is more of a measurement of time and labor than anything else. It's confusing to some. To make it a little easier. Imagine your work all day at the end of the day someone writes down credits to take and buy food with. You may work for a big corp affiliated with that Food store. If not your still dealing in credits. As the fractional deals all the credits out. Key word is CREDITS. See they DO NOT think in terms of what it cost them. Paper is very cheap. They think in terms of what it costs. YOU. Another words how much of someones labor can I capture and for how long.

Your labors are not for real material substantial goods. Thats where some get really confused. They are for credits. Thats where you really get burned. The credits can be adjusted either on your side (less pay, debt) or inflation bullshit (which is mysteriously absent) or inflated goods 35 bucks to make a flat screen tv which is nothing more than a circut board that sells for 700 credits. Keeping you in debt and WORKING. If it were your asset you were trading you might try to understand the value of what you are buying. However in the fractional world you have no other choice but to stay in debt as you cannot bargain for what you are buying. So you buy rip off goods giving away all your credits and you wind up working fractionally for years and years and years producing way way way more than what you got ripped off for. Liter of coke 3c to make figure the percent mark up in credits. Everything you buy is like that. 3 bd house 3 months to build. 30 years to pay for. SEE.

Now all the labor that produces the goods you buy work on the same basis. for asswipe. They buy the same rip-off goods. Takes them 30 years also of labor producing goods for you. All it cost the swindlers was some paper and no work. It's nice and convienient that the federal reserve notes are the only legal tender or legal for trade. Credit or debt is always measured in time to pay back. Usury takes you beyond way beyond the time you would take to pay it back. Then paying for it tit for tat.

Deal is they can ask for the credits they want to get goods. However YOU have only two choices get it or don't get it. That includes food which is really fucked. Nevermind how many credits either get it debt slave or go without. Thats how they look at it and will never say it. No one in this entire country has the balls to utter the word usury, except me.

What you need to understand is this: They can give a fuck about paper. That they have truckloads of. They need your labor. If they had truckloads of paper without the labor THEY WOULD BE FUCKED.

Another key? Let me show you how this goes. You produce for yourself. Now your stuck on zero. I am not smart enough will be the first thought that comes to you. Your next thought? I must run and be with ALL of the other labor that produces for one another. The federal toilet paper factory. Who's owners, with unlimited paper (ONLY LEGAL MEANS OF TRADE) which captures, unlimited labor, don't do much of anything but live well. Truly is wonderful. Only one problem. When you run to be one of the laborer's that produces for one another. Your mired in debt. For most of you life. Just like everyone else. It's nice to be together of course. Some think of it as benevolence. More pratically it is bonded labor and debt slavery. Its massive as some see it. Deal is it really isn't. The world is much larger and theyre are many more people that DON'T get involved in the debt swindel than do. They call them or see them as poor. However how can you be any poorer than being in debt all of your life. Thats real fucking poverty less than zero, debt slave and a debt slave does not own anything they just owe that IS the foundation of debt slavery. There are shitloads of people that never even go near the swindlers don't deal in asswipe and live way better than you think.

I sound like a hard ass I know. Deal is I like all of you. Well most of you anyway. The ones that reason, even better. I just don't like seeing what i consider my fellow humans in a life of servitude to someone else. Spending your entire life practically jumping at someone elses whistle. One day i hope or many will see themselves as a man and not someone elses lackey. It was really sneaky of them to get so many into all of this. I don't feel very sorry for the ones that did.

I don't Pre-dict anything. I will make something however up just like the rest of the predictors. This thing is falling apart like a cow lost in the woods. I think squatting (a fucked up word like you would have to do if you were a woman back in the 16th century when your man walked by.) Try taking over property. It will become much more commonplace. I even see some growing a fucking brain buying a tent taking the canvas off and throwing some plastic over it IE: a greenhouse is so fucking simple. Year round food for practically nothing. I also think people will be joining the hundereds of thousands that just go get land on the plains. Which does happen. You just don't get to hear about it. Not paying a cable bill, electric, gas, phone just more debt hooks. Really its not panic just living free. Why do it out of panic? Or stay facinated with the swindlers. Your choice. The internet is filled with and can be filled with all kinds of really great ways to live your life without the bastards.

Again I'll ask those of you to please go listen yo this americacatlyst with Kyle Bass circa nov 7 2011 on you tube, big eye opener of course you'll be looking up some defennictions he uses like optic backstop etc.. But you all soon realize this is real, no fluff and or bull shit just what's coming down the pike in the next 3-5 years starting with Japan then euro nations then USA

JodyChunder says

i predict a booming economy. more self made men real estate invesment types and more APPLE products to keep us exited about the future here in the USA. i predict OBAMA 2012 and a huge employment boom and house buying spree parlty because of the troops returning from the war and other war profits finding they way back home here in the USA. i predict no more OCCUPY and a new respect for banks. if you can not beat them you join them. i saw this play out with the boomers. dont see why it will be any diff with this generation. i preedict china as our ally againts IRAN and i predict better oil sources for the us from both the pipeline and japans whales. i see a real turn around in 2012.

REpro says

Let mortgage bond holders lose. Bond buyers gambled. They should lose when their bet was wrong.

That will be a problem. The largest bailout, 140 billions went to AIG. This company was selling insurance to mortgage bonds holders. Works similar like PMI (now bankrupt). When bonds loosing cash flow AIG pay loses. It appears that taxpayers pay to bonds investors.

Problem for whom? Not a problem for me if bondholders or AIG go bankrupt. In fact, it's a huge problem for me if they do not.

ArtimusMaxtor says

Keeping you in debt and WORKING.

Yes, control over labor is the goal. The 1%'s control over the labor of the 99% explains everything. It's all about capturing servants and making them wipe your ass every day so you don't have to wipe it yourself. While letting them think they are free.

See
http://www.youtube.com/watch?source=patrick.net&v=rsL6mKxtOlQ#watch-headline
and
http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html

Very true Patrick. They won't let on because people would find a way out. One thing you might add to that, is education. Virtually no education of what being in debt is about. The tell in that is all of the people in debt. If it truly were useful they would be showing them ways of making it without debt. Thats just not the case.

They are also always trying to bring in new debtors. Internationally that is oh so important to them. If people really understood what education is about in their terms. The would run like hell. So they have purpose in doing things the way they do.

America is the place to come. We are rich. We have everything. The truth is we are swamped in personal debt. No one with a home with a mortgage owns it (they can throw you out). They make sure your on a payment system from everything like electric to verizon and beyond. Everyone looks good driving down the street with something they don't own. Looks good to an outsider if promoted to them correctly leaving out the very real facts. Which is nothing new.

Merry Christmas (if I believed in that bullshit) To you Patrick and Apocolypse Fuck, Bubblesitter. Many more here of course. You have provided your people with honesty, integrity thanks for this great internet site which I have enjoyed daily. Thank you to reasoned thinkers who really give a damn about their fellow human beings everywhere.

I believe there was a Jesus. However there was a big Jesus bullshit story added to it. To keep people in line. Waiting for the end for everyones ass to catch on fire. Waiting for the duck and cover that no one really does anymore who knows why? lead schools who fucking knows. Scaring the shit out of everyones kids. To many phone calls. Governments, peoples have to be kept in some reasonable order. What happens when they are overcome and let their people become overcome and led into servitude? What happens when they are overcome and told when to fire on someone else. Even their own people. That are desperately trying to get them out of this? Some little jerk off keeps coming into the occupy chat bringing up fema camps. Thing is some of the people that were invaded are afraid others are out there speaking their minds. It has purpose of course. What he needs to think about are the public trials that will be held for the peoples rights that are violated in violation of what is agreed upon by all. It's not going to get worse only better. Just not in the old way I feel. Don't be some old debtor "stick in the mud". Join the fun. Its the one life you have. So have some fun.

edvard2 says

I'm going to predict that this upcoming year there will probably be a slow but steady recovery

RECOVERY .......... This is such a warm, reassuring, positive word.
Websters should define it in this context as : smoke up ones ass.

I can not seem to find a soul who can answer WHAT exactly we are recovering from.

Wasn't it the loss of income caused by the maturity of the computer industry ?
IT IS GONE...Much like the Radio, the TV, and soon to be gone the Automobile ? When will we RECOVER from the loss of those sources of income ?

There is no english word for Schadenfreude, and there seems to be no word for whatever it is that we are expected to RECOVER from.
GUBMINT uses that word RECOVERY, while forcing YOU to pay for big Bank's loss's.
We need to invent a word that means HOPEFUL RECOVERY or PLANNED BELT TIGHTENING or Back up plan when the chute don't open.

whoosh says

and then borrow later at a much higher rate when no one is willing to lend

It seems like you have not been following lending market lately! Even at super low rates lending standards are strictest in recent times. Lots and lots of recent RE transactions are cash only. Go figure!

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

Then things get ugly.

Post of 2011!!!

To the parasites who make a living by deception, and there are many in the USA, this site may seem bearish. But it is not. It simply tries to expose the truth. To the parasites, the truth is just an inconvenient impediment that lies in their way of swindling more people. They mourn the bursting of the bubble and yearn for the return of its evil. This site was among the first to raise the publics' understanding of the housing bubble and its terrible effects, and I predict it will continue to bring out the truth in 2012. Now you con artists will have to look elsewhere to get money for doing nothing... gold... stocks again... more worthless crap. I suggest you scammers try making a living by actually producing something, for a change!

bubblesitter says

whoosh says

and then borrow later at a much higher rate when no one is willing to lend

It seems like you have not been following lending market lately! Even at super low rates lending standards are strictest in recent times. Lots and lots of recent RE transactions are cash only. Go figure!

I am not talking about individual borrowing but debt by US as a country. While it is easy for US to borrow right now at a low rate - that may not always be the case. This seems a little counter intuitive but if you are likely to be jobless for sometime - better to get low rate loans before you get laid off to help you tide over :-).

Also check out:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/01/28/the-10-countries-with-the-most-debt

BTW the great part of US debt is it is all in its own currency (if really needed the debt can be inflated away) - most countries don't have that luxury.

By the way - with respect to your point about stricter lending standards & folks not able to take advantage of low interest rates (and buy houses) - I think increased interest rates will lead to increased lending by the banks as they will be willing to take more risks & hence increased house prices. Ordinary people will stretch themselves to buy even if it costs them more due to the higher rates - and banks will bend over themselves to lend. This in turn will cause the home owners with good houses who have been waiting in the sidelines will start unloading properties - seeing more good condition non-foreclosure properties on sale the waiting in the sidelines homebuyers will get tempted & jump in - leading to another bubble. These are human tendencies/behaviors that may or may not be in their best interests - but most of us are ordinary weak folks. So in my opinion if Patrick wants lower house prices - he should hope Bernanke will keep the rates low for as long as possible.

Prediction for 2012?

If, for whatever reason (economy, Republican infighting, etc.), Obama's campaign starts looking ilke a juggernaut in comparison to any Republican "alternative", then Obama won't live to win the election. Like the Kennedy brothers didn't live to win theirs. Like Reagan "getting in the way" almost didn't live to be reelected.

Not a prediction, but a hunch: a corollary to that one is, if they cause that kind of chaos, and if there's internal chaos within the factions of the Republicans, it would not be surprising to see Jeb Bush emerge as the Republican nominee.

Nomograph says

bubblesitter says

Even at super low rates lending standards are strictest in recent times.

Lending standards are not stricter than usual, they have simply returned to normal. If you have verifiable income, a decent credit history, and your debt-to-income ratio isn't too high, it's easy to get credit.

That's right.

So many folks who're either younger than me, or if around my age, immigrated to the Left Coast on their H-1's in the past decade or so, have told me how onerous the typical terms of the typical loan was that I borrowed for in 1989.

But they were not onerous terms. If anything, they were fairly liberal: I could borrow 90% if I paid for PMI on the 10% portion.

People act like being able to over-borrow so that they can over-spend is some kinda Entitlement.

CrazyMan says

i predict a booming economy. more self made men real estate invesment types and more APPLE products to keep us exited about the future here in the USA. i predict OBAMA 2012 and a huge employment boom and house buying spree parlty because of the troops returning from the war and other war profits finding they way back home here in the USA. i predict no more OCCUPY and a new respect for banks. if you can not beat them you join them. i saw this play out with the boomers. dont see why it will be any diff with this generation. i preedict china as our ally againts IRAN and i predict better oil sources for the us from both the pipeline and japans whales. i see a real turn around in 2012.

guess I just feel positive is all. cutting a guy down with a cartoon dont sweeten the deal any neither. thanks a lot.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/Xx1i_Fzrd3o&feature=youtu.be

http://youtu.be/watch?v=hbsW-vooxdU&feature=youtu.be

I find this interesting. However it misses the key. To the control issue of these people of in his subject. Another words what the gentleman in video is trying to convey.

The key to the control is very, very simple. Debt. When one owes. One owns nothing. One does what one is told. One has fear of the one who is owed. There are some minor points I do like. In the video.

One might think to himself true I owe on the house. But I own my furniture free and clear. Not true. If you owe everything you have is owned until payment is completed. The hysterial part of all of this is that someone making 500k a year. House paid for thinks he's not owned. However when on any kind of payment system be it for electric or cable. The same holds true. Thats why they only take monthly payments on such things. People that are just so grateful for the debt merchants that helped make their lives and don't know why. Yet the people that have cleared everything off the books are still on monthly payment plans. I find that hilarious. It's not funny not at the expense of the people who pay the monthly cable, electric and water etc. However I am laughing at the fucking deviousness of the debt merchants.

At some point you think someone, somewhere. Would turn and say the debt merchants that got them into this. You all are nothing but a bunch of swindeling sloths. That love having all of the labor. Low down sneaky, no good vermin using trickery. I can get everyone to nod their heads yes to that. For about 5 seconds. Then MOST of the heads will be again nodding no after that 5 seconds. See if the confusion in your mind is the nodding of your head yes then no. Because of the confusion of your thoughts. Thats real. Once again no one in this land has had the balls to call the debt merchants usuor's. Simple fact. However to drive the point home to the source of confusion: an example. A house that takes three months to build. Takes 30 years to pay off. Confused???? Stupid deal to be in. Then you rationalize and then resign. Now you know why.

Guys, it's not going to be fixed, none of it. What can we return to anyway? What could we return to "If" anything could be fixed? More borrowing, more frivolous spending, more credit card abuse, more home equity abuse, more job outsourcing, new alien style finacial wizardry to con more foreign investors, What? There are roughly 76 million boomers retiring and they now want to sell everything they have to retain a pittance of a retirement and this just adds to the housing problem..

Here's another thought, If a jet airliner is headed strait for the ground to crash and has only 100 feet to go before it hits the ground, do your actually think that changing pilots will stop the crash or fix anything or return us to anything? If Ron Paul is allowed to win by the elites, it won't be to fix anything, it will be to throw him and the TP and the OWS and the Republican party under the bus all at once and let them take the blame for the crash of the country. Once they are all out of the way, it will be clear sailing for the Fascist/Socialists to complete their mission.

Folks, all this discussion of rising interest rates, changes in polititians, NAR lies or not, bears and bulls is all for naught. America is that Jet Liner and we are months or weeks before the final crash. I would simply suggest that you all just prepare yourselves for some lifestyle changes you never believed possible.

(Please excuse my spelling - too busy to spell check this one)

They announce that we are (and have been) in a recession sometime towards the end of the spring / early summer.

Election politics will get ugly.

Prices down 4% Year over year nationally, but some areas have (or are close to) bottoming, and start to recover.

The 2012 mayan end of age hype catches up with us. Otherwise ordinary people start behving irrationally, undermining one of the key tennants of our financial sytem - rational behavior. Not sure how it manifests itself, but the reprecussions will be ugly once 2012 comes to a close without any extinction type incidents occuring.

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

Election politics will get ugly.

Yep. This is how ugly it will get, like 1968:

B.A.C.A.H. says

If, for whatever reason (economy, Republican infighting, etc.), Obama's campaign starts looking ilke a juggernaut in comparison to any Republican "alternative", then Obama won't live to win the election. Like the Kennedy brothers didn't live to win theirs. Like Reagan "getting in the way" almost didn't live to be reelected.

does any one else feel POSITIVE about this coming year? I feel change is coming.

In 2012

Someone will get elected and the banks will put in their man as Treasury Secretary.

RE market will continue to have bottomed

More and more low wage temp jobs with no benefits will make up the job recovery

A war may be started as a stimulus package for the Pentagon Suppliers Group as the other two wind down

Rentals will still be horrible

Homes will remain overpriced

Banks will charge us interest to store our money