patrick.net

"Recovering", but not "recovered" (some people don't understand the difference).

When you lose millions of jobs and trillions in personal wealth, it takes a very long time to get back to where you started (and, quite possibly, you never will; the tech economy is doing much better today than it was 10 years ago, but the NASDAQ is still 40% off its peak).

It's recovering if you consider people dropping out of the job market the definition of a "recovery".

I'll believe its recovered when the labor market is so tight I receive multiple unsolicited job offers and fat signing bonuses.

My guess is I'll be waiting quite a while...

My 2% raise begs to differ.

Secular Deleveraging for the next decade or more .

Staring at an era of financial repression .

With ridiculously huge debt levels in all Western developed economies which cannot be meaningfully serviced, talking about recovery is really a joke.

Or may be it's not a joke, but a veil to mask the underlying truth.

Recession

The technical indicator of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP).

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

Depression

A severe and prolonged recession characterized by inefficient economic productivity, high unemployment and falling price levels.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

By these definitions, you could have a 20-year depression during which there were zero recessions: one giant drop and GDP and then zero or tiny growth each quarter for 20 years.

Put simply, economists and politicians made up the word recession because they wanted to never, ever hear the word depression on the news again. The term recession is worthless. You could be in a 10 year recession with near 100% employment, and high wages, and everybody is happy. Have GDP raise 10x and the income gap narrow, and then lower GDP by 0.25% each quarter. The GDP per capital is still high during such a recession and ends up a mere 9x the pre-recession levels. The term recession is worthless.

The news needs to stop talking about recessions and start talking about depressions again.

If recovery means it's improving, the slow rate of improvement is so minute it's undetectable. I think the best characterization is "not totally collapsing" because it's on life support provided by 1. Uncle Sam 2. Bernake.
I would define this more correctly as a depression, since it was caused by the collapse of a huge asset bubble.
But, since today we have food stamps, sec. 8, 99 weeks of unemployment, and now the newest wrinkle, unemployed people getting on disability for being "depressed" over being unemployed.
So, this little depression we are in hasn't resulted in bread lines or other obvious disruptions of society because of the government spending.
The economy will very slowly produce some more growth for some businesses and they'll have profits. Apple will continue to grow sales and profits but the effects won't be noticed 50 miles from Cupertino.
I tell my friends that today is the *true economy* in California. The artificial bubble monopoly money of home equity has been removed from the system.
Only imitating Texas will change the USA economy. We must get our oil and gas which will produce jobs and keep $500 billion here instead of sending it to Venezuela, Mexico, etc.

Yeah, commodities at record highs, gas prices through the roof, durable good purchases down, interest rates ZIRP-low, savings and bonds at negative rates of return, jobs numbers fake as the labor participation rate dropped. Yeah, the US economy is back, now take out a HELOC and buy a second home! Reinflate that bubble.

clambo says

We must get our oil and gas which will produce jobs and keep $500 billion here instead of sending it to Venezuela, Mexico, etc.

We are the number 3 producer of oil in the world. Yes, thats right, same size as saudi arabia and larger than canada. Did you know that?

Rank BBL_per_day %of world total
1 Russia 10,540,000 12.01% 2011
2 Saudi Arabia 8,800,000 10.06% 2011
3 United States 7,800,000 8.91% 2011
4 Iran 4,172,000 4.77% 2009
5 China 3,991,000 4.56% 2009
6 Canada 3,289,000 3.90% 2009

What needs to happen here - return to the Federal Reserve Note valuation back when gas was $2 a gallon, like when gold was 500/oz or something.

But they cant. They must monetize the debt. So the real reason gas is high is the dollar is destroyed. Nothing to do with production at this point.

An oz of silver buys 4 gallons of gas in 2006. It buys 11 gallons today. Relative cost of gas in those terms is lower.

Mick Russom says

So the real reason gas is high is the dollar is destroyed. Nothing to do with production at this point.

Nope--the real reason gas is high is world demand.

tatupu70 says

Nope--the real reason gas is high is world demand.

yeah nothing to do with increase in the money supply whatsoever.

Uomo--

You are right--money supply is part of it. I just wanted to add that world demand is a very large part of the increase as well.

Mick Russom says

We are the number 3 producer of oil in the world. Yes, thats right, same size as saudi arabia and larger than canada. Did you know that?

So what? We produce 8bbl per day and consume 19bbl per day. Still importing 11bbl per day. The US imports more than the second largest user of oil, China, uses.

tatupu70 says

Nope--the real reason gas is high is world demand.

The recent spike in the price of gas is not caused by an increase in world demand or diminishing supplies. It's caused by speculators anticipating supply disruptions caused by the political turmoil surrounding Iran's nuclear program. Whenever there is a risk of supply problems, speculators bid up the price of oil and we all pay for their zero-game profits at the pumps.

Dan8267 says

The recent spike in the price of gas is not caused by an increase in world demand or diminishing supplies.

Agreed.

Mickrussom I realize the USA produces oil. The problem is we consume almost double what we presently produce.
If Obama, Chu and his ilk had any brains or a clue, they would stimulate natural gas production, instead of nonsense like Solyndra, Tesla, windmills, ethanol and other wastes of our money.
There are 285 trillion cubic feet of natural gas under the USA. This can run cars, buses and trucks for decades.
If I were in the market for a car, I would get that Honda Civic natural gas model.
Natural gas is a better fuel in some ways than gasoline. It is not necessary to refine crude to make it. The octane is 130. The range of the car is 250 miles or so, and the tank is 3500 psi, like a scuba tank.
The buses where I live run on natural gas, as does the world's largest fossil fuel power generator at Moss Landing. We heat our water and buildings with natural gas.
You can't have a natural gas spill, and a pelican never choked on it.
Production, rewarding capital, rewarding investment, and discouraging mal investments and waste would help our economy.
Unfortunately, the soviet style central planners we have are as clueless a bunch as I have ever seen.
Valerie Jarret. Just who the fuck is she? No one, except a close advisor to Obama.
Tim Geithner? Just a little twerp whose father ran a foundation that gave money to Obama's mother. Otherwise he's a nobody incompetent.

There is much I need to learn, but comments like this show the sentiment of many in the US:

"I am still confused as to why markets are up. Looking at Europe, there is no hope until another few years. Looking at US, we are struggling to stay afloat. China has their housing bubble and it ain't going away. So why are markets up? Confuses me and I will stay confused. Just hope that it doesn't turn around on teh dime because all the lies by FEDS would surface. FEDS have been playing with Jobs number since Dec to create a sense of recovery. Well , 90 % of US Population doesn't see any recovery. So who is fooling who? I see it coming as a disaster in very devastating way when coming weeks could reveal all these lies. Trust me, I sense, feel, smell and can figure out a skunk in disguise." --Andrew

The number of jobs that became obsolete era 2008, were from I.T. & the construction that I.T. supported. SO,,,,, will we RECOVER from the loss of those I.T. jobs ?

The word RECOVER implies those same jobs will return. Either we can't handle the truth or the rich folk wish to force a false sense of security.