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So the FB IPO Is Tomorrow...Predictions & Trash Talk
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2012 May 17, 4:04am 23,069 views 48 comments
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Robber Baron Elite Scum
2012 May 17, 10:45pm
Facebook is worth $100+ billion.
$16 billion is the IPO size.
Both are US record during its IPO.
Be fearful...
Facebook produces nothing that valuable & what it does provide is just intangible.
A very big bubble is forming & it is going to collapse big time.
Facebook has 800 million active users?
The whole world only has 6 billion people. Not everyone has internet access.
NorCalBear
2012 May 18, 2:55am
And that is exactly our problem. Those companies have produced something of immense value which has completely changed the world in so many ways in business, education & technology. Especially Microsoft & Google.
So, you are saying that Words with Friends and Farmville have no value?
Agreed.
FB's product is users and they will wander away as fast as they came in.
Anyone feeling nostalgic over MySpace or AOL yet?
But has Facebook really contributed?
It's changed the way nearly a billion people use the internet with a current ARR over $4,000,000,000 a year. Before Facebook social media was for kids. In the age of Face Book 22% of the average user's on-line time is with social media
Nothing. It hasn't introduced anything new. It hasn't innovated any special technology which completely changing the world.
The overwhelming majority of tech startups are nothing really new, just solid engineering combined with some business acumen, competent marketing, decent sales, some schmoozing, and some luck.
One bad business decision is all that separates going out of business with the VCs getting back 4M out of 20 and a 360M exit on 160M of investment+debt and fizzling where your competitor IPOs to a 2B market cap.
Facebook seems to have avoided that and if they don't continue to do so it won't matter for everyone who cashed out.
The amount of hate and bitter just amaze me.
This IPO is bigger than the TOTAL of all tech stocks (Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Ebay, etc).
Even Roger Mcnamee, as do many others in finance see it... its alot of hype and emotions. If you have the experience and maturity, you understand this.. if not.. you have a lot to learn.
It's changed the way nearly a billion people use the internet with a current ARR over $4,000,000,000 a year.
No it hasnt.. FB is the byproduct of 50 years of REAL tech innovation related to SW, Semis, and Storage. The three S's is what changed everthing. FB is a toy for idiots to fondle with.
bmwman91
2012 May 18, 3:47am
Man, aaaaaaand this is why I don't gamble on stocks. Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. Seeing as how everyone was probably trying that, and the NASDAQ seems to be having technical difficulties (lol)...the price is remarkably steady. What was with the huge dip shortly after opening...all the folks with non-locked options dumping like crazy?
Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now.
guy at the office piped CNBC this morning ...here is the short on the reaction by CNBC staff at open...
Shock it didnt open higher... 50-60-70 per share
Confused why its falling. whats going on ?
Fear as it approached 38. WTF!
This isnt what many expected (hype)
Some are going to have a stiff drink after trading hours...
Watch what happens after 3pm est
Man, aaaaaaand this is why I don't gamble on stocks. Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. Seeing as how everyone was probably trying that, and the NASDAQ seems to be having technical difficulties (lol)...the price is remarkably steady. What was with the huge dip shortly after opening...all the folks with non-locked options dumping like crazy?
I'd chalk this one up as another Y2K. Waah waah...
For some reason my limit order was never triggered, so when I finally got in this morning, I just canceled it. It certainly did not have the momentum I was expecting. Maybe the offering was just too big.
Tenpoundbass
2012 May 18, 4:18am
No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money.
you sound bitter.
Well could you cite an example of a productive billions of dollars company?
NorCalBear
2012 May 18, 4:24am
$40 a share puts it at a market capitalization for FB at $109B
Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)?
BP $117B
MCD $91B
ABT $96B
GSK $109B
MRK $114B
VZ $117B
CL
2012 May 18, 4:28am
Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)?
The man on the teevees told me so. He had a straight face.
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 May 18, 5:39am
Facebook has 800 million active users?
The whole world only has 6 billion people. Not everyone has internet access.
Correction: active accounts, NOT users. I have 4 facebook accounts already.
- One has me as a 28 years old hacker and bodybuilder that has over 2000 friends
- One has me as a 19 years old student that drinks heavily and gets money from the parents to survive
- Another I am a 40 years old mother of 2 that was recently divorced but wealthy.
- And the last is suppose to be the truth, but like everything I do I lie repeatedly just to confuse the directed ads.
:)
It looks like it was priced right and the company was able to maximize the amount of capital it raised. For all intents and purposes, FB stock had already been trading on a closed market. Insiders were responsible of over 50% of the shares being offered in the IPO. For comparison, when Amazon and Yahoo went public, 0% of the insiders sold.
I predict cannibal anarchy in the last 5 minutes until close when Zuck offers to sell personal profiles of users in an attempt to juice the stock and appease the underwriters.
FortWayne
2012 May 18, 6:13am
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577411903118364314.html
There is serious manipulation going on to prevent facebook from falling below it's IPO.
NorCalBear
2012 May 18, 6:43am
NorCalBear says
Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)?
The man on the teevees told me so. He had a straight face.
my teevee is broken like that too... ;-)
RentingForHalfTheCost
2012 May 18, 8:07am
FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)
bmwman91
2012 May 18, 8:54am
LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?
NorCalBear
2012 May 18, 9:24am
FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)
LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?
Predictions, particularly abut the future, are hard, but were I more of a gambler I would certainly short FB.
However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent".
I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance.
bmwman91
2012 May 18, 10:24am
However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent".
I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance.
Me too, me too......
About valuations:
FB Facebook Inc , Mkt Cap 81.74B (began at 110B), 2011 profits 1B, 2012 profits less than 1B (projected), Mkt Cap/Profits ~82
GOOG Google Inc, Mkt Cap 195.75B, 2011 profits 37.9B, Mkt Cap/Profits ~5
After the FB fizzle on Friday, I have just a tad bit more respect for market buyers who can apparently recognize a dot.bomb "valuation" when they see it. They are going to have fun keeping this _turd_ afloat at $38 for the remaining 1.6B shares left to sell, more than twice the total number sold thus far.
bmwman91
2012 May 21, 6:45am
Well, it is down 11% to $34. AAPL is up almost 6%. Were people REALLY selling AAPL to buy FB, and are now flocking back?
zzyzzx
2012 May 22, 6:38am
I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time.
bmwman91
2012 May 22, 2:50pm
I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time.
If I had a million dollars........I'd do two chicks at the same time.
lisalisa
2012 May 22, 9:41pm
I fail to understand the culture. I fail to understand why a piece of software on some china built machines, with a bunch of storage is worth so much.
"I'm out..."
MisdemeanorRebel
2012 May 24, 5:00am
Screw this investing shit.
I'm just gonna place "Small, Classified Ads" like Don Lepree.
« First « Previous Comments 18 - 48 of 48 Search these comments
According to the SJ Murky News, and most of the intertubes, Facebook is going to have its IPO tomorrow. Just for fun, let's get some guesses going in here. I'd suggest a betting pool, but that's sort of illegal in CA and I am not sure how we'd handle the money anyway.
OK, so put down your guesses for what the stock price will do relative to the opening price at future dates, and your explanation of WHY in 10 words or less for each. Use the dates in my guesses as the template. Either guess higher/lower (feel free to add adjectives), or as a percent of tomorrow's initial offering price.
@Closing on 5/18: 250% - Initial frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/21: 300% - Continued frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/25: 150% - Many initial buyers selling for quick profit, uninformed masses panic
@Closing on 6/18: 125% - Uninformed buyers are mostly out, large players remain
@Closing on 8/18: 125% - Large players holding still
@Closing on 11/18: 80% - Lock-up ends, employees & pre-sale buyers liquidate
@Closing on 5/18/2013: 50% - Earnings not amazing, more employees liquidate, approaching company's actual valuation
And of course, we can get some good trash talking going in here. My guesses may well be full of shit, or yours, or everyone's. There's no need to be bashful about it.
I will NOT be trying to buy any FB shares. While it seems like a "sure thing" to buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money, there is no such thing as a "sure thing." Honestly, anything could happen tomorrow since this is probably the most hyped market event ever.
Cheers!