patrick.net

The feedback I have gotten from a colleague trying to find a house from Palo Alto to Belmont is that homes are moving briskly and there is little inventory.

Lets see what Facebook options are worth in 6 months.

My guess is that it is related to the HP layoff of 30,000 people: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/technology/hewlett-packard-plans-job-cutbacks.html

Their HQ, which just recently moved to Palo Alto, was in Cupertino for the longest time. No doubt, many of their employees still live in Cupertino.

30,000 people is nothing compared to the 1000 millionaires Facebook will make. We all now that everyone needs 300 houses when they make it rich. Also, in 6 months and FB is single digits, will the insiders be spending or frugal? hmmm

Facebook down 8% this morning.

It is not just Facebook.
There are lots Facebook similar companies are planing to go public if Facebook stock double or triple.
Now the dream is over.

gee, I guess fundamentals do matter when it comes to valuations.

LarryPatrickMaloney says

notice a gazillion For Sale Signs

According to redfin.com there are 33 homes for sale in Cupertino right now. I guess we have different definitions of a "gazillion."

Goran_K says

gee, I guess fundamentals do matter when it comes to valuations.

Nah man, that's the OLD paradigm. Profits don't matter now, with Web Economy 2.0! It's different this time.

bmwman91 says

Nah man, that's the OLD paradigm. Profits don't matter now, with Web Economy 2.0! It's different this time.

I'm so glad people's memories aren't so short these days. Maybe we do have hope to return to some sort of non-bubble economy (I doubt it, but one can dream).

tiny tina says

LarryPatrickMaloney says

notice a gazillion For Sale Signs

According to redfin.com there are 33 homes for sale in Cupertino right now. I guess we have different definitions of a "gazillion."

People are now selling their homes on facebook and donating the 6% to the employees who bought homes in Palo Alto and are already underwater. ;)

is the lockout period 6month still? Any bets on where FB stock is going to be in 6months? I'm guessing teens...

Teens would be a good guess since they are trending towards mid-20s right now.

I guess some of these brokers aren't going to be going to the Hamptons for vacation this year.

Sertpentor,

I got an A- on my last Calculus exam...

wthrfrk80 says

Sertpentor,

I got an A- on my last Calculus exam...

GTFO

damnit pic attach doesn't work

Testing picture attachment...

Seems to work. How does it fail for you?

I hit choose file, selected a gif, then upload image, then submit comment. Only my comment shows up. Shrug

using chrome browser

When you hit "Upload Image" it should put some HTML in the comment box creating a link for your image.

Does it do at least that much?

ahh.. no it doesn't do that.

The options indicate to me this will hit at least $24 soon

The P/E ratio at least to me tells me that $8-10 is a good price.

It's still way...way over priced.

Goran_K says

gee, I guess fundamentals do matter when it comes to valuations.

Fundamentals have a way of catching up eventually. Everyone tries to cash out before that happens.

Any way to find out the avg strike price of fb employee options?

I don't think that there is a strike price. They were given RSA's, not options. They get to sell at whatever it is valued at in ~6 months, as far as I am aware.

mdovell says

The options indicate to me this will hit at least $24 soon

The P/E ratio at least to me tells me that $8-10 is a good price.

It's still way...way over priced.

I have an open order for my Mother (she wants some shares because FucBook is the only things she uses on the internet). I told her to sit back and I will get her some eventually. My buy price is $4.10/sh and I'll sit tight until I get it. :) They are a 10B dollar company. That from a dorm room is still a great story. 100B, Nope, sorry. Your not building cars, building phones, mining gold or oil. You are spreading gossip and pictures FCOL! At least LinkedIn helps people find work. Fucbook just sucks away your time.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/18/facebook-stock-spooked-taxes/

sounds like it'll be a race to see who can get out first. lol

No limit to Cali libkook baby boomer greed. First they outsourced high tech jobs for young people to third-world nations like China and India, now they've all voted themselves big salaries, benefits, and high real estate costs. They want somebody else to pay for their health care, retirement, and mortgage. It's "compassionate", and I must be a scumbucket for noticing their collaboration with the demoncratic party to steal from me and my generation.

anon12366 says

No limit to Cali libkook baby boomer greed. First they outsourced high tech jobs for young people to third-world nations like China and India, now they've all voted themselves big salaries, benefits, and high real estate costs. They want somebody else to pay for their health care, retirement, and mortgage. It's "compassionate", and I must be a scumbucket for noticing their collaboration with the demoncratic party to steal from me and my generation.

How is this rant related to the topic and how is this only the "cali libkook" fault? Both side of the political spectrum are equally responsible for all the issues you listed. Some people just like to turn every topic into a political rant

Serpentor says

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/18/facebook-stock-spooked-taxes/

sounds like it'll be a race to see who can get out first. lol

I am trying to figure out what that article was talking about. As far as I am aware, employees' stock awards vested on 5/18. If it is like the RSU system everywhere else, you pay income tax that day, in the form of shares (say you get 100 shares & need to pay 45% tax...you are given 55 shares with the other 45 x $38 ending up on your W2 as paid income tax). So, unless some other system is at work here, employees already paid all of their taxes on their stock awards, and when the lock-up is over, they can sell. The only way they would pay more tax, and it would be capital gains, would be if they sold shares for more than $38. Otherwise, they can write-off the loss. That's how it works with my employer & stock awards. Now, if they had filled out their W4's such that no income tax is being withheld, then yeah, they are going to get raped when they sell their stock since their W2 considers N shares x $38 as wage income and they didn't pay tax on it back when it was actually worth $38.

I have to admit I don't understand how RSUs work in an IPO. I've only gotten them in public companies. So on 5/18, an x% of all VESTED RSUs are automatically sold to cover taxes and the proceeds from the sale are withheld? I assume then, those shares were part of the shares offered to the public?

Not sure about that either since I haven't participated in an IPO award program. I suppose that we'll find out soon enough. It seems logical that it would work the same way across the board since RSUs are RSUs.

Real question is when will Patnet go public?

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/05/24/facebook-groupon-haunted-by-lock-ups/

http://www.inc.com/eric-markowitz/facts-of-facebook-ipo-filing-that-will-boggle-your-mind.html

"The lock-up. After an IPO, company insiders are generally prohibited from selling shares for 180 days. So they can't just dump their shares into the IPO. Facebook insiders are looking to get liquid much faster—their lock-up lasts only 90 days. Thank SecondMarket for that."

soooo the lockup period is 90days vs the customary 6 months. August will be very interesting

CL says

Real question is when will Patnet go public?

After they do a hostile takeover of Fucbook, Twit, GroupOff, and LinkedUp. To me all 4 of these sites can just become part of the "Interesting Link" section of Patnet. That is about the extent of their value. In a tucked away corner where you have to play with the scroll bar to find them.

Serpentor says

is the lockout period 6month still? Any bets on where FB stock is going to be in 6months? I'm guessing teens...

You mean the laid-off period? Yah, I think that is 6 months for Fucbook.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

mdovell says

The options indicate to me this will hit at least $24 soon

The P/E ratio at least to me tells me that $8-10 is a good price.

It's still way...way over priced.

I have an open order for my Mother (she wants some shares because FucBook is the only things she uses on the internet). I told her to sit back and I will get her some eventually. My buy price is $4.10/sh and I'll sit tight until I get it. :) They are a 10B dollar company. That from a dorm room is still a great story. 100B, Nope, sorry. Your not building cars, building phones, mining gold or oil. You are spreading gossip and pictures FCOL! At least LinkedIn helps people find work. Fucbook just sucks away your time.

My mom uses it, but calls it "SpaceBook". I stopped correcting her.

My favorite renames are "Freindface and Jitter" --IT Crowd

Serpentor, I found some clarification for how the IPO/tax structure works.

The shares actually vest at the end of the lockup. Taxes are paid that day on the RSUs, in the form of shares. If an employee had 10000 shares vest that day, and their income put them in the 45% tax bracket, then basically the employer would withhold & sell 4500 shares that would be paid as income tax, and the other 5500 shares would belong to the employee. They can do whatever they want with those shares, and when they sell them they would only pay taxes on any gains if the price was higher upon selling than what it was when they vested. This is exactly how my employer handles stock awards too. So, nobody at FB is going to get "stuck" with some absurd tax bill that actually costs them something other than free money.

FB is priced at $27 per share. Doesn't look like the hype lived up to the hope.

LarryPatrickMaloney says

FB is priced at $27 per share. Doesn't look like the hype lived up to the hope.

Sure, but if you work there and have thousands of shares, free money is free money any way you slice it. Specuvestors are getting reamed, but that is the chance you take when you gamble.

LarryPatrickMaloney says

and I drove through Cupertino today, and notice a gazillion For Sale Signs.

I would totally love a photo of a bunch of forsale signs on the same street. I can put a circle around them if you send the photo and tell me where obscure ones are.