patrick.net

Realtors, car sales people (used and new)...essentially most sales people...they are a breed of their own.

I honestly think some (maybe even most) realtors believe their own spiel, and the spiel being consistent across the 'industry' is probably due to them repeating (consciously or not) the message from 'above' (NAR).

This said, the truth is that while I personally believe housing in the better locations of the Bay Area could go 10-50% lower than current rates, one does wonder what the heck really is going on and what the truth about it all is, and what the future holds...and we all have our theories (some better founded than others), but nobody really knows...and I could certainly be wrong.

Hell, I do not even need a realtor trying to sell me a home...my own wife is doing their bidding, and she is not even getting a commission! The owner of the condo we are renting is selling it, and she is tired of moving...so am I for that matter, but do not see myself buying a frigging house at current prices...

Get fooled by a car salesman, and you'll lose thousands.

Get fooled by a Realtor®, and you'll lose hundreds of thousands.

It is a sellers market where I was looking in NJ last week. Without a doubt.

Housing Patrolman says

tatupu70 says

It is a sellers market where I was looking in NJ last week. Without a doubt.

If that were true then why is sales volume and prices down in NJ?

Because those are trailing indicators. Unless you have data for last week...

Housing Patrolman says

You're misrepresenting seasonality as a trend.
Why are you doing that?

I'm not misrepresenting anything. I simply stated what was happening. You are the one trying desperately to explain why.

Housing Patrolman says

You said prices and sales rose last week.

I said nothing of the sort. I said what I saw last week when bidding on houses.

In any event, we'll see what the trend is in another few months.

Can't upload image from iPad, uggg.

I am a Realtor and tell my clients what I think, good or bad about a property or market. I spent 2004 - 2010 telling clients not to buy, and even now I tell them they are getting a so-so deal on the property, but a great deal on the money. If they plan on staying for 10+ years, buying can be OK. Shorter than that, be careful. Rising interest rates could be a killer.

How can I do this, I have a regular job that pays my bills. If I kill 10 deals in a row, the family still eats.

What is funny about this; I have found it is harder to talk someone out of buying then I ever imagined. I had a lot of people tell me I knew nothing about real estate in the bubble years and went to another Realtor and bought anyway. That is fine, I don't want that blood money.

I can't believe I just found the ignore feature. This actually makes ignoring bear/bull trolls easy, and the forum more pleasant to view.

Very active in certain desirable neighborhoods here in the Bay Area. But with the global economy teetering, who knows how long that will last?

Housing Patrolman says

rooemoore says

desirable neighborhoods

And I'll wager prices are falling in these "desirable" neighborhoods.

Actually, they are going up - - in some cases dramatically.

Here is a home that listed for 1.2mil last October.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Piedmont/115-Highland-Ave-94611/home/553010

It sat around for several weeks before getting picked up for 1,075,000 in December. 200k of renovations and it sold for 1.78mil in May. This is an extreme example, but right now most homes in Piedmont are going fast and at least 10% more than a year ago.

Still prices are lower than they were in 2005, and I doubt they will go much higher anytime soon.

I really believe interest rates will NEVER EVER Go back up.

Like japan.

In 5 years a 2% 30 year fixed loan will be common.

Basically if the feds raise rates the whole world blows up, nuclear winter starts, and we all freeze to death in the snow starving - even the banksters - so it wont happen. They will launch nukes at Iran and 10 other countries before they let mortage rates hit 7% again.

PockyClipsNow says

I really believe interest rates will NEVER EVER Go back up.

Like japan.

In 5 years a 2% 30 year fixed loan will be common.

Basically if the feds raise rates the whole world blows up, nuclear winter starts, and we all freeze to death in the snow starving - even the banksters - so it wont happen. They will launch nukes at Iran and 10 other countries before they let mortage rates hit 7% again.

And they will outlaw inflation? I don't see RE going up in real terms, but in nominal terms, that is another story.

Housing Patrolman says

Considering Piedmont is an atypical example where the median is nearly 10x the national median, it cannot be taken seriously.

You're right. It is an atypical example. It is one of the "desirable" neighborhoods. Remember what you said?
Housing Patrolman says

And I'll wager prices are falling in these "desirable" neighborhoods.

Well, if you want to wager I'd be happy to show you Piedmont, Kentfield, Los Gatos, Woodside, Palo Alto - well you get the idea.

This is what is crazy about you and why so many people choose to ignore you. First you say I'm wrong - that you'd wage that prices are falling in desirable neighborhoods. Then when confronted with facts, you say it doesn't matter, because they are atypical. But I never said that this trend in these specific neighborhoods was typical of all neighborhoods. I know they are not. I am just throwing my 2 cents into a thread titled "It's a sellers market".

tdeloco says

Get fooled by a car salesman, and you'll lose thousands.

Get fooled by a Realtor®, and you'll lose hundreds of thousands.

No, just let the bank, er taxpayers, lose hundreds of thousands. That's the new American dream.

Goran_K says

I can't believe I just found the ignore feature. This actually makes ignoring bear/bull trolls easy, and the forum more pleasant to view.

Bear trolls! Geeze, I think I fought a few of those in my World of Warcraft days.

Housing Patrolman says

There isn't a user on this blog that either lives there, wants to live there or is stupid enough to pay the massively inflated prices there.

What you're doing is called cherrypicking an exception and calling it a rule. It's called a misrepresentation of the truth.

Now explain why you're misrepresenting the truth about housing?

Well, I live in Kentfield, so I guess you are sort of right - I don't live in Piedmont.

Anyway, I too have tired of you're "When did you stop beating your wife" questions. You have been ignored. Goodbye!

Dan8267 says

Bear trolls! Geeze, I think I fought a few of those in my World of Warcraft days.

At least in WOW you can pick and choose who you play with.

I'm tired of the extremist on both sides, and I guess I never looked hard enough for the ignore button.

Goran_K,

Thank you so much. I never knew there was an ignore feature. Holy Moses. When I think of all the moronic text I have had to filter.

Also, when I started this thread I was seriously hoping to avoid the stupid, really stupid, relentless arguing that is so prevelant here. Absolutely mindless crapola.

I may get carpel tunnel using the ignore feature.

Biff

Goran_K says

I'm tired of the extremist on both sides, and I guess I never looked hard enough for the ignore button

Yeah, America has become way too polarized.

Biff Baxter says

Also, when I started this thread I was seriously hoping to avoid the stupid, really stupid, relentless arguing that is so prevelant here. Absolutely mindless crapola.

I agree with Dan, some issues just get too polarized, and people want to call each other names, and things out of their emotions. Bears do it because they feel cheated (rightfully so) from a normal housing market, instead of one that is rigged for banks. Bulls do it because they have a monetary attachment to an asset that has high risk associated with it (because of the rigged housing market).

I've been on both sides. I used to be a homeowner, and I am currently a home seeker. So I know why this issue stirs up people so much, but I like to think as grown adults (I hope we are at least), we can stop calling everyone liars, or idiots, or whatever seems to fit at that moment in time. It just makes the discussion turn into a school yard fight. I had enough of those.

People often throw around the phrases "it's a seller's market" or "it's a buyers market," but what does that really mean?

In general, if the HPI shows a positive slope at any given time, I consider it a seller's market, and if the HPI shows a negative slope at any given time, I consider it a buyer's market.

Although I live in Alameda County, I mostly follow the market in Contra Costa County due to more affordable real estate (although I don't think CCC will exhibit any glaring unusual trends compared to other counties in the Bay Area).

I've made several offers in 2012 (6-7 now), most above asking price, and all multiple offer situations with no success. Ignoring all that, and only looking at # of homes for sale, # of homes sold, and selling price per sq-ft...

Inventory is LOW and sinking according to Redfin. Inventory is 53% lower today than it was just one year ago. Despite a 53% reduction in inventory, the # of homes sold is up 22%! That tells you that homes are not sitting on MLS. The median selling price per sq-ft is not dramatically different compared to a year ago, but it's trending upward.

In the big picture, it's difficult to say that it is a seller's market right now. But if you zoom in and only look at 2012, you can certainly make a case that it is a seller's market right now.

Dear Housing Patrolman,

Please pull up a chair and sit down. We need to have a little talk.

There was a housing bubble. Realtors had a big part in it. Bankers had a big part in it. Irresponsible borrowers had a big part in it. We all know that.

I'm not sure where housing is going in the next few years but my guess is that it will continue to decline slowly and that there is a chance that it may take another significant leg down. I don’t see a recovery for a long time, possibly as much as a decade or even more. I only mention this so you don't think I am bullish on real estate.

Here’s the hard part. You are not the great patrolman for the truth. Your posts are fairly annoying, like gum stuck to your shoe, but you are not the menacing figure you seem to desperately want to be. Your posts are annoying because they lack content of any value. You try to act superior or like some enforcer but you sound dumb and impotent. Your own emails make statements that cannot be known and you state these things as the absolute truth (that’s ironically dumb). Who knows? Maybe you have published something of value here.

On an average day, people find you annoying. On a good day, we are embarrassed for you.

Instead of arguing or attacking, how about some content. Maybe you could find some hidden gem of real estate data from a very credible source. Give it a try. I am thinking you may not be as completely stupid as you sound.

Biff

Dear Housing Patrolman,

I didn't see your Zillow graph until after I had posted my above commentary. Your graph has value. And it's relevant.

Bully for you. I knew you had it in you.

Keep on that track. People will begin to listen and generate some respect for you.

Biff

Housing Patrolman,

The scale on your plot does support your argument. If you look at the plot since before 2008 and calculate a tread-line, sure the market is tanking. But let's look at it a bit deeper.

Using your preferred site and zooming in a bit, I notice the following:

- YoY median selling price is +2.7%
- QoQ median selling price is +11.8%

Median sale price was $278K in Feb and $320K in April. That's a pretty strong 2 month surge and consist with what I have been experiencing trying to pick up a rental over the past few months. Zillow is also delayed, and the trend is upward.

Time will tell whether this 2 month surge is noise or not. I need to pick up a couple rentals, so I certainly hope it's noise!

BayArea

Yep, it just means stepping away from purchasing until winter time (which is what I'm doing) and hope that this is just a blip. With the next recession coming up, I have a feeling it will be.

I'm not going to pay bubble prices for a home here. If worse comes to worse, I'll move into my Santa Cruz home and enjoy my $600 a year property tax and just retire. lol

I'd prefer to buy my own house instead of having one handed to me, but it is what it is.

Dear Housing Patrolman,

I hope this is my last email on the subject of you.

I think home prices will continue to drop. I don't know that they will but that is my guess based on the data I have seen and my experience in the market. I am betting on prices dropping.

I don't know that home prices will continue to drop and neither do you. You might want to peruse a dictionary and look at the words "truth" and "impotent".

Biff

tatupu70 says

It is a sellers market where I was looking in NJ last week. Without a doubt.

Please get in touch with my mother in law and make an offer, she is thrilled to know it's now officially a sellers market since nothing around her in Essex county is selling at all, except at heavy discounts. There are something like 500 properties scheduled for for essex county sherrifs sales in the next month. That's not a good sign.

Housing Patrolman says

That's right. Why buy a house now as prices are falling? Buy later after prices crater for 65% less.

And you will be unemployed along with 60% of the population if home prices cratered that much more.

Call it Crazy says

Take off your rose colored glasses as you cruise around the neighborhoods and be aware of the "shadow inventory" in NJ. (Hint, it's the ones with the uncut grass).

I'm not denying that is the case, but I didn't see any in the areas I was looking at.

I've been hearing about the shadow inventory for years now. Why in the hell would banks continue to hold on to their properties with inventory extremely low, houses selling in less than 1 week at over asking price?? That just doesn't make any sense.

I looked at foreclosure.com and unless I want to live in N. Plainfield or Roselle Park, there didn't seem to be much there...

bob2356 says

Please get in touch with my mother in law and make an offer, she is thrilled to know it's now officially a sellers market since nothing around her in Essex county is selling at all, except at heavy discounts. There are something like 500 properties scheduled for for essex county sherrifs sales in the next month. That's not a good sign.

I didn't look much in Essex county--I was in Union county.

Do you think I'm making this up? I'm looking to buy a house in NJ, not sell one. I'd love it if prices were tanking and I had lots of inventory to choose from. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. I'm just telling it like I saw it last week.

Call it Crazy says

That's why I told you to rent for now, you'll find a house for a lot less in the future...

Maybe--but I'm not sure foreclosures in Newark or Trenton, or even Plainfield will cause prices to drop in Westfield or Cranford.

Further--the areas I was looking at are pretty much at rental parity, if not cheaper to own already. A crappy 3/2 that needs work rents for $2500.

Call it Crazy says

Simple law of supply and demand. If the banks let loose with all the shadow inventory at once, prices would crash down bigtime!! By releasing houses a little at at time, they are trying to create another bubble and start bidding wars, which they hope, will drive prices up for their shadow inventory. It's a simple marketing trick just like the retailers do for Christmas by offering limited quantities

Except they forgot to release the properties! Where are they?? Inventory is ridiculously low right now. Where are the foreclosures??

It's gonna happen by Christmas. Best time to buy is between 12-20 to 1-15, I mean get an offer accepted.

tatupu70 says

I've been hearing about the shadow inventory for years now. Why in the hell would banks continue to hold on to their properties with inventory extremely low, houses selling in less than 1 week at over asking price?? That just doesn't make any sense.

I too have heard a lot about shadow inventory and have seen some credible, jaw dropping statistics. Like tatupu70, I do not understand why the banks would not release more inventory in hot markets where inventory is low and prices are fairly high. I am not saying they should dump a large volume of properties, but where they can clean up their balance sheets without lowering market prices, they surely would, but I don't see any evidence of that.

If the market could bare 10 houses but only 6 are available, why wouldn't the banks release 2 more? 8 available when 10 are in demand would not bring down prices.

And banks do need to get this stuff off of their books. They are holding shitty liabilities. The idea that they are waiting for prices to get better is ludicrous. They may be evil but they are not stupid.

I am unable to explain it and the standard answers I often hear on this site don't really answer the question.

Biff

Regarding my previous comment, I am in California, not a judicial state for foreclosures so the argument that applies to New Jersey does not apply here.

Biff

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

I've been hearing about the shadow inventory for years now. Why in the hell would banks continue to hold on to their properties with inventory extremely low, houses selling in less than 1 week at over asking price?? That just doesn't make any sense.

Simple law of supply and demand. If the banks let loose with all the shadow inventory at once, prices would crash down bigtime!! By releasing houses a little at at time, they are trying to create another bubble and start bidding wars, which they hope, will drive prices up for their shadow inventory. It's a simple marketing trick just like the retailers do for Christmas by offering limited quantities.

That's only half the story. As long as the loan is on the books the banks can claim the full value of the loan as an asset. If a house sells for less than the loan value the loss must be booked. Bankers that book enough losses to miss performance numbers get to see their bonuses go by by. So things are being carefully trickled out.

Even with banks holding off the backlog of foreclosures in NJ is something like 100k houses or about 50 years at current rates. I have a friend in glen ridge ( the upscale area of bloomfield don't laugh, its true) who hasn't made a mortgage payment in 4 years and says the bank is years from doing his foreclosure.

With so much housing stock in NJ tied up in limbo I can see where some area's don't have a lot of inventory right now. Union must be in that category. Western Essex sure isn't.

Call it Crazy says

If you want a nice "family area" you should look at Monmouth County. It is a train ride to Rahway. It depends on what type of commute you want but neighborhoods and pricing is better than Union County.

I looked at Monmouth county and hated it. It was full of snobby folks in their McMansions. Even the realtor was a snob. Not my cup of tea.

Call it Crazy says

I just took a quick check on Zillow. They are reporting 189 houses for sale in the small town of Scotch Plains, so it appears to me, there is some inventory.
Maybe your "wish list" is too specific or your price range doesn't match the area....

Certainly possible, but I guarantee I could look at that list and probably show you 50 properties that are under contract right now. Zillow is not up to date.

Call it Crazy says

Not sure where you are looking... here is the Zillow map of the Cranford, Westfield, Scotch Plains area. It says there are 943 houses in that area. Surely you can find ONE that you like!!!

Yes--my budget is on the low side for the area. I'll agree with you on that one.